Tempered Expectations for Draft Picks

[eoxyod]

Hi everybody! So it's time for lowering expectations for out current rookies for their first year, and career overall. I know this sounds sad but this is more so people don't freak out over the contributions that players have or how many players become good players from this draft class. Remember that getting 4 players that are strong contributors is a FANTASTIC draft. So here we will make predictions, best case/worst case, and go over skill sets with various athletic scores. Now let's get started!

John Ross:
This is my favorite draft pick in the class. You'll see this from me in this pick and the next pick that the only way I see them bust is by not being on the field. But let's talk about the player. I have gone over a lot of things regarding his abilities on the field and the analytic scores behind it but I love the numbers and it keeps me really excited about him. Ross is not going to start until later this year, if at all. As a note, JUST BECAUSE HE WAS DRAFTED IN THE TOP 10 DOESN'T MEAN HE HAS TO BE A STARTER. Remember the draft is about long term investments and assets, not about immediate impact. That's free agency and trading.

Ross was the 2nd best WR in the draft behind Corey Davis. Besides being fast he is a relatively strong route runner, and tracks the ball INCREDIBLY in the air. He was the best ball tracking WR in the draft which is much better for deep balls than just speed. Think of watching Desean Jackson in his Eagles days mostly. He finds the ball in the air and adjusts to it with great vision.



The green there shows routes that he has a high success rate compared to the success rate of other receivers. As you can see his successes come on routes that aren't just the go route, but also routes that involve selling deep. While any corner would be afraid of his speed, he has to be very good at selling it and making cuts to get open in those situations. He definitely needs to work on slant routes though as they are the 2nd most commonly run route by the Bengals besides comeback routes I would say.

Now for numbers! Ross posted the 3rd highest SPARQ score of any WR in the draft. It puts him in the 96th percentile of any WR in the league currently. He also posted a 97% playmaker score, which accounts for the fact he scored a touchdown on 4% of all of Washington's pass attempts for the year which is nutty. I know this sounds like bumpko numbers but playmaker score has been pretty indicative of general success by WRs. If you want to look more into it check the charts on here
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2014/playmaker-score-2014

He's an excellent redzone threat as shown here. Remember being great in the redzone is not necessarily about size, but route running and attacking the ball.


So now let's go over his usage with the team. In his first year, he will be considered our 4th wide receiver, but he will see about the 4th or 5th most targets behind AJ, Eifert, Gio, and possibly LaFell but that's more iffy. Where the team will have success is in rotation of our WRs. AJ will still naturally see 95% of the snaps on offense, but that other 5% the offense can still run smoothly. On the other side we can rotate Ross, LaFell, Boyd, and to a much lesser extent Malone as I imagine our offense will definitely be 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB. WR is also a very commonly injured position so we will still have depth as the season goes on. This will help everyone stay fresh and let the WRs still be excellent. So this year I would imagine around 30-40 receptions, 600 yards, and 3ish touchdowns.

In his 2nd year, LaFell will be gone. Ross is going to be on the outside as our #2 receiver and will keep that job as long as we have him or AJ goes elsewhere. That's all

Now for the bad scenario. Honestly I think Ross will be great. He's everything I want in a WR. His negatives that are listed on draft profiles are very stereotypical every WR negatives in terms of finding functional strength and working press coverage. Those are things that are developed by being in the NFL. You can't coach his speed, overall athleticism, and play. But if he does get hurt then it's unfortunate but we would just have to pray. That is the worst case scenario - leg injuries take him down more than they should. But as much as people complain about our medical team, we are one of the healthiest teams in the league regularly since we had an overhaul so i trust their evaluations on him. Best case scenario is he develops and plays like Desean Jackson.

PREDICTION: LONG TERM #2 RECEIVER

These are about to be a lot lazier. I love Ross and people were more divisive in terms of his ability

Joe Mixon:
I'm going to ignore the other things until the end because this is about football, and by all accounts Mixon was considered the best or 2nd best RB in the draft. He cuts so well, he has good vision, and can make plays that are not there. He truly is the quintessential RB in his ability to receive and run. If he is anything but a starter in the next 3 years there will be a severe problem. He will be the largest contributor as a rookie this year.

For his athletic scores, he actually didn't do the greatest. He had the 7th highest SPARQ score of RBs but actually only ranks in the 70th percentile of RBs in the NFL currently. This is still well above average but surprising overall. He does compare in scores to Ezekiel Elliot though. The worrisome part however is while his speed score ranks in the 91st percentile, he ranks <50th percentile in explosiveness scores and agility scores. Those 2 metrics are massively important to being a successful RB.

As for his rookie year, he's our starter and that's all. Like he's going to get a majority of touches and snaps. Hill is going to be relegated to not nearly as many touches as a short yardage back and goalline player. Gio will maintain as a spot runner and 3rd down back. Long term Mixon will be here to stay and be a good running back if his explosiveness and agility scores are not as indicative of future success. I do think he will be a great RB personally.

Worst case is he remains a piece of shit and does something that kicks him out of the NFL

PREDICTION: HIGH QUALITY STARTING RB FOR 6-8 YEARS

Jordan Willis:
Willis is probably my least favorite draft pick we made. He is a little stiff and has a lot to develop in terms of technique to be a consistent contributor. That said, he is hugely athletic so I understand the risk the Bengals made in the pick especially in the 3rd round. Yes I know he had a lot of production, but production =\= good tape. Nor does it mean disruption. It's why Michael Sam wasn't a good NFL player.

For his numbers, everyone knows how athletic he is. Ridiculous SPARQ scores and he ranks in the 97th percentile in athleticism in other EDGE players. He had a 93% SackSEER score which has been iffy on predictive success, but is still a solid score. It essentially predicts he will have about 23-24 sacks after 5 years which would be solid production, and I believe about where his career will end up.

For his rookie year, I don't think he will contribute much if at all. I think he'll be inactive for a lot of the season while he develops as a player. Long term he can be a rotational defensive end that might be able to become a low end starter. I believe his best case scenario is ending up the caliber of player that MJ is, with not the best production but enough to maintain a starting position. Worst case scenario is he doesn't develop upon his athleticism and goes a similar route to Margus Hunt.

PREDICTION: DOES NOT DO ANYTHING AND DOES NOT RECEIVE 2ND CONTRACT

Carl Lawson:
This is the pick I actually do like. Lawson is consistent player against the pass that only dropped due to injury issues. Against the run he could be better but he will be used as a pass rusher and not much more his first couple years. But overall I think he has a much better chance to become a starter than Jordan Willis long term.

Athletic score time. He ranked 13th in his SPARQ score which puts him in the 65th percentile of NFL players. It is worrisome that he had weak explosion workouts such as his broadjump and vertical jump. Those are hugely important workouts but long term injury recovery could have had an effect on his workout. He had a very poor SackSEER score of 27% and projected to only have 12 career sacks 5 years into his career. 

Short term all I see is Lawson being a situational pass rusher for his first couple years as he develops as a run defender and allows Dunlap and MJ to take rests and possibly kick inside. Long term he can become a starter in terms of snaps but would not be a down 1 player. I believe his best case scenario is a player like Cameron Wake who he has been compared to before as a pass rusher, and not a great run defender also similar to Wake. Worst case scenario is he doesn't regain as much explosiveness and just isn't able to really produce.

PREDICTION: BECOMES LONG TERM ROTATIONAL PASS RUSHER THROUGH 2 CONTRACTS

The rest of the picks are more crapshoots so I'll just give quick predictions


Josh Malone - 4th or 5th receiver for his time here. Doesn't really do much besides fill in for injuries here and there
Ryan Glasgow - rotational DT for a few years. Does decently and moves on
Jake Elliot - He will kick
JJ Dielman - Swing linemen for a few years
Jordan Evans - Doesn't make team. Goes to PS or something
Brandon Wilson - Special teams cog for years
Mason Schrek - Doesn't make team

I'll patiently wait for people to say I wrote a nice piece even though no one read it. If you want anything on players I didn't go over or just want to ask questions or want to say my post was so bad it gave you cancer feel free

[wolfkaosaun]

(05-10-2017, 11:52 PM)eoxyod Wrote: Hi everybody! So it's time for lowering expectations for out current rookies for their first year, and career overall. I know this sounds sad but this is more so people don't freak out over the contributions that players have or how many players become good players from this draft class. Remember that getting 4 players that are strong contributors is a FANTASTIC draft. So here we will make predictions, best case/worst case, and go over skill sets with various athletic scores. Now let's get started!

John Ross:
This is my favorite draft pick in the class. You'll see this from me in this pick and the next pick that the only way I see them bust is by not being on the field. But let's talk about the player. I have gone over a lot of things regarding his abilities on the field and the analytic scores behind it but I love the numbers and it keeps me really excited about him. Ross is not going to start until later this year, if at all. As a note, JUST BECAUSE HE WAS DRAFTED IN THE TOP 10 DOESN'T MEAN HE HAS TO BE A STARTER. Remember the draft is about long term investments and assets, not about immediate impact. That's free agency and trading.

Ross was the 2nd best WR in the draft behind Corey Davis. Besides being fast he is a relatively strong route runner, and tracks the ball INCREDIBLY in the air. He was the best ball tracking WR in the draft which is much better for deep balls than just speed. Think of watching Desean Jackson in his Eagles days mostly. He finds the ball in the air and adjusts to it with great vision.



The green there shows routes that he has a high success rate compared to the success rate of other receivers. As you can see his successes come on routes that aren't just the go route, but also routes that involve selling deep. While any corner would be afraid of his speed, he has to be very good at selling it and making cuts to get open in those situations. He definitely needs to work on slant routes though as they are the 2nd most commonly run route by the Bengals besides comeback routes I would say.

Now for numbers! Ross posted the 3rd highest SPARQ score of any WR in the draft. It puts him in the 96th percentile of any WR in the league currently. He also posted a 97% playmaker score, which accounts for the fact he scored a touchdown on 4% of all of Washington's pass attempts for the year which is nutty. I know this sounds like bumpko numbers but playmaker score has been pretty indicative of general success by WRs. If you want to look more into it check the charts on here
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2014/playmaker-score-2014

He's an excellent redzone threat as shown here. Remember being great in the redzone is not necessarily about size, but route running and attacking the ball.


So now let's go over his usage with the team. In his first year, he will be considered our 4th wide receiver, but he will see about the 4th or 5th most targets behind AJ, Eifert, Gio, and possibly LaFell but that's more iffy. Where the team will have success is in rotation of our WRs. AJ will still naturally see 95% of the snaps on offense, but that other 5% the offense can still run smoothly. On the other side we can rotate Ross, LaFell, Boyd, and to a much lesser extent Malone as I imagine our offense will definitely be 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB. WR is also a very commonly injured position so we will still have depth as the season goes on. This will help everyone stay fresh and let the WRs still be excellent. So this year I would imagine around 30-40 receptions, 600 yards, and 3ish touchdowns.

In his 2nd year, LaFell will be gone. Ross is going to be on the outside as our #2 receiver and will keep that job as long as we have him or AJ goes elsewhere. That's all

Now for the bad scenario. Honestly I think Ross will be great. He's everything I want in a WR. His negatives that are listed on draft profiles are very stereotypical every WR negatives in terms of finding functional strength and working press coverage. Those are things that are developed by being in the NFL. You can't coach his speed, overall athleticism, and play. But if he does get hurt then it's unfortunate but we would just have to pray. That is the worst case scenario - leg injuries take him down more than they should. But as much as people complain about our medical team, we are one of the healthiest teams in the league regularly since we had an overhaul so i trust their evaluations on him. Best case scenario is he develops and plays like Desean Jackson.

PREDICTION: LONG TERM #2 RECEIVER

These are about to be a lot lazier. I love Ross and people were more divisive in terms of his ability

Joe Mixon:
I'm going to ignore the other things until the end because this is about football, and by all accounts Mixon was considered the best or 2nd best RB in the draft. He cuts so well, he has good vision, and can make plays that are not there. He truly is the quintessential RB in his ability to receive and run. If he is anything but a starter in the next 3 years there will be a severe problem. He will be the largest contributor as a rookie this year.

For his athletic scores, he actually didn't do the greatest. He had the 7th highest SPARQ score of RBs but actually only ranks in the 70th percentile of RBs in the NFL currently. This is still well above average but surprising overall. He does compare in scores to Ezekiel Elliot though. The worrisome part however is while his speed score ranks in the 91st percentile, he ranks <50th percentile in explosiveness scores and agility scores. Those 2 metrics are massively important to being a successful RB.

As for his rookie year, he's our starter and that's all. Like he's going to get a majority of touches and snaps. Hill is going to be relegated to not nearly as many touches as a short yardage back and goalline player. Gio will maintain as a spot runner and 3rd down back. Long term Mixon will be here to stay and be a good running back if his explosiveness and agility scores are not as indicative of future success. I do think he will be a great RB personally.

Worst case is he remains a piece of shit and does something that kicks him out of the NFL

PREDICTION: HIGH QUALITY STARTING RB FOR 6-8 YEARS

Jordan Willis:
Willis is probably my least favorite draft pick we made. He is a little stiff and has a lot to develop in terms of technique to be a consistent contributor. That said, he is hugely athletic so I understand the risk the Bengals made in the pick especially in the 3rd round. Yes I know he had a lot of production, but production =\= good tape. Nor does it mean disruption. It's why Michael Sam wasn't a good NFL player.

For his numbers, everyone knows how athletic he is. Ridiculous SPARQ scores and he ranks in the 97th percentile in athleticism in other EDGE players. He had a 93% SackSEER score which has been iffy on predictive success, but is still a solid score. It essentially predicts he will have about 23-24 sacks after 5 years which would be solid production, and I believe about where his career will end up.

For his rookie year, I don't think he will contribute much if at all. I think he'll be inactive for a lot of the season while he develops as a player. Long term he can be a rotational defensive end that might be able to become a low end starter. I believe his best case scenario is ending up the caliber of player that MJ is, with not the best production but enough to maintain a starting position. Worst case scenario is he doesn't develop upon his athleticism and goes a similar route to Margus Hunt.

PREDICTION: DOES NOT DO ANYTHING AND DOES NOT RECEIVE 2ND CONTRACT

Carl Lawson:
This is the pick I actually do like. Lawson is consistent player against the pass that only dropped due to injury issues. Against the run he could be better but he will be used as a pass rusher and not much more his first couple years. But overall I think he has a much better chance to become a starter than Jordan Willis long term.

Athletic score time. He ranked 13th in his SPARQ score which puts him in the 65th percentile of NFL players. It is worrisome that he had weak explosion workouts such as his broadjump and vertical jump. Those are hugely important workouts but long term injury recovery could have had an effect on his workout. He had a very poor SackSEER score of 27% and projected to only have 12 career sacks 5 years into his career. 

Short term all I see is Lawson being a situational pass rusher for his first couple years as he develops as a run defender and allows Dunlap and MJ to take rests and possibly kick inside. Long term he can become a starter in terms of snaps but would not be a down 1 player. I believe his best case scenario is a player like Cameron Wake who he has been compared to before as a pass rusher, and not a great run defender also similar to Wake. Worst case scenario is he doesn't regain as much explosiveness and just isn't able to really produce.

PREDICTION: BECOMES LONG TERM ROTATIONAL PASS RUSHER THROUGH 2 CONTRACTS

The rest of the picks are more crapshoots so I'll just give quick predictions


Josh Malone - 4th or 5th receiver for his time here. Doesn't really do much besides fill in for injuries here and there
Ryan Glasgow - rotational DT for a few years. Does decently and moves on
Jake Elliot - He will kick
JJ Dielman - Swing linemen for a few years
Jordan Evans - Doesn't make team. Goes to PS or something
Brandon Wilson - Special teams cog for years
Mason Schrek - Doesn't make team

I'll patiently wait for people to say I wrote a nice piece even though no one read it. If you want anything on players I didn't go over or just want to ask questions or want to say my post was so bad it gave you cancer feel free

[Shake n Blake]

I read the whole thing.

I agree with you almost entirely. Especially on Ross and Mixon. You say the best we can hope for is 4 contributors, which is generally accurate give or take...but I think this will wind up being a class like 2001 or 2010. We're going to see a couple studs and a couple solid contributors out of this one. I think.

Ross- I think he winds up being an absolute stud of a #2 WR and eventually he will soften the blow of losing AJ Green...who is creeping up on the big 3-0.

Mixon- I think he'll be mixed in (pun intended) a bit this year, but this was more of a 2018 move. This is Hill's last year as a Bengal regardless of performance.

Willis- I'm also "meh" on Willis, but more optimistic than you. I don't see a 3rd rounder being inactive with the lack of depth we have at DE.

Lawson- I like him...but at the same time I think he's being overhyped a bit. I think he'll contribute, but the James Harrison comparisons are a bit much.

Malone- I think this pick is flying under the radar. Kid ran a flat 4.4 and has the size/production. This isn't a Binns/Core/Alford/Wright/Cobi Hamilton/Whalen/Briscoe type of player. He's a far better prospect than those guys.

Glasgow- Decent depth/competition at DT.

Elliott- We'll find out quickly whether or not he was worth a pick at the top of the 5th round. Randy Bullock will be tough to beat out.

Dielman- Hard not to like his bloodlines. Maybe he competes to replace Bodine next year?

Evans- Special teamer and depth is probably his ceiling.

Wilson We'll barely remember his name in 5 years

Schreck We'll only remember him because of his name.

[Quantum Bengal]

I think Ross will definitely make an impact, but his ability to return kicks will be a big part of that. I'm very excited to see that electric speed on the field.

I think Mixon will have the biggest impact this year. Speaking only on his talent, he's an elite talent.

[eoxyod]

(05-11-2017, 01:03 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I read the whole thing.  

I agree with you almost entirely. Especially on Ross and Mixon. You say the best we can hope for is 4 contributors, which is generally accurate give or take...but I think this will wind up being a class like 2001 or 2010. We're going to see a couple studs and a couple solid contributors out of this one. I think.

Ross- I think he winds up being an absolute stud of a #2 WR and eventually he will soften the blow of losing AJ Green...who is creeping up on the big 3-0.

Mixon- I think he'll be mixed in (pun intended) a bit this year, but this was more of a 2018 move. This is Hill's last year as a Bengal regardless of performance.

Willis- I'm also "meh" on Willis, but more optimistic than you. I don't see a 3rd rounder being inactive with the lack of depth we have at DE.

Lawson- I like him...but at the same time I think he's being overhyped a bit. I think he'll contribute, but the James Harrison comparisons are a bit much.

Malone- I think this pick is flying under the radar. Kid ran a flat 4.4 and has the size/production. This isn't a Binns/Core/Alford/Wright/Cobi Hamilton/Whalen/Briscoe type of player. He's a far better prospect than those guys.

Glasgow- Decent depth/competition at DT.

Elliott- We'll find out quickly whether or not he was worth a pick at the top of the 5th round. Randy Bullock will be tough to beat out.

Dielman- Hard not to like his bloodlines. Maybe he competes to replace Bodine next year?

Evans- Special teamer and depth is probably his ceiling.

Wilson We'll barely remember his name in 5 years

Schreck We'll only remember him because of his name.

For Willis, I think we will have the players for it. Dunlap, MJ, Clarke, Lawson active
My expectations are low for Malone just due to the odds of getting contributors in the draft, and while he is very fast he posted other bad athletic scores iirc. Like a super low playmaker score

[J24]

A couple of question Exoyd; if we were better at WR pre draft do you think Ross would still have been the pick? In other words do you think he was the best player on the board at the time regardless of position of need? Also do you think his redzone numbers in college will translate to the NFL.

[McC]

I would add this--don't be so damn quick to write off Jordan Willis.

[*SHRacerX*]

Good stuff, Ei-ei-O...

I will add that Ross accomplished these numbers despite a poor arm talent at QB. It was amazing how poorly underthrown a lot of those balls were to him.

[Sled21]

I disagree about Ross, and think he starts in heavy rotation right away. Although he is not just a track star playing football, he was drafted for his speed and his ability to stretch the field opposite AJ. Can't do that sitting on the bench. Even if they don't really throw to him a lot, I suspect he will see a huge portion of time on the field. If Marvin does not take advantage of having Green and Ross burning it on the outside taking the top off, while Eifert and Boyd work the middle and Mixon back there to pound the rock, then he does not deserve to be here.

[*bengalfan74*]

Thanks for posting Eox

I also believe Malone may be the surprise of this draft.

[fredtoast]

(05-11-2017, 08:25 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I also believe Malone may be the surprise of this draft.

Tennessee QB Josh Dobbs got drafted, but it was more on potential than the way he played in college.  The Vols had  avery limited passing game.  Malone would have put up HUGE numbers with a better passing team.

[grampahol]

https://youtu.be/3flv5nWZgII

Interesting read although with young athletes it's tough to predict the future. Sometimes the guys you least expect to find success are the ones who quietly carve out a solid career while others are a flash in the pan guys who start off like real studs, but quickly fizzle out, running backs especially. They take a real pounding in a very short period. I read somewhere (don't ask) that RBs only average 2.x years before injuries do them in and those are the good ones.. They come into the pros already pretty banged up from college ball and the pros don't make it one bit easier. WRs are similar, but sometimes speed makes the real difference as they tend to avoid the back breaking tackles moreso than RBs.. 
I tend to shy away from long term predictions simply because most of them are still learning how to avoid serious injuries and quite often a 20 year old player is not the same person on the field as the 25 year old player. Heck, in 5 short years they're often considered 'grizzly veterans'..  I don't know of too many professions where that holds true. Maybe a baseball catcher.. They take a pretty good pounding behind the plate. 

[Jpoore]

Ur way oFf on willia. Think he is a 8- 10 sack a year guy. He also will split snaps with mj and will be a fulltime starter in year 2. Before draft nobody saw him falling to the late 2/ much less early 3. As far as mixon, mixon is a 3 down back, so i think hill and gio get less carries.

[sandwedge]

Pretty good post Eoxyod! Someone beat me to it , Ross didn't have the best QB in college throwing him the ball.
Willis is really an unknown to me, I don't watch much Big 12 football.

[jj22]

Given that this was the deepest defensive draft in nearly 2 decades, I hope we came out of it with more than some rotational guys. That would be a significant failure.

[Whatever]

(05-11-2017, 09:01 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Tennessee QB Josh Dobbs got drafted, but it was more on potential than the way he played in college.  The Vols had  avery limited passing game.  Malone would have put up HUGE numbers with a better passing team.

I am thinking Malone may be taking the majority of the #3 WR snaps by the end of next year.  There just aren't many teams that can match up with Green on one side, Malone on the other, Ross in the slot, Eifert at TE, and Mixon a threat to come out of the backfield.

[WeezyBengal]

This is a great post and I agree 100%. Everyone on here thinks the additions of our first three picks makes us an automatic Super Bowl contender. That's not the way it works and it really has never worked that way.

[WeezyBengal]

(05-11-2017, 03:51 AM)McC Wrote: I would add this--don't be so damn quick to write off Jordan Willis.

Jordan Willis is also my least favorite pick. I dont like his tape. He looks slow off the ball and just slow/stiff in general. 

[eoxyod]

(05-11-2017, 08:22 AM)Sled21 Wrote: I disagree about Ross, and think he starts in heavy rotation right away. Although he is not just a track star playing football, he was drafted for his speed and his ability to stretch the field opposite AJ. Can't do that sitting on the bench. Even if they don't really throw to him a lot, I suspect he will see a huge portion of time on the field. If Marvin does not take advantage of having Green and Ross burning it on the outside taking the top off, while Eifert and Boyd work the middle and Mixon back there to pound the rock, then he does not deserve to be here.

I think I might have undersold how many snaps Ross sees, but I think he'll be more slowly worked in as he builds more strength. By week 10 I think he'll be 'starting'

(05-11-2017, 09:22 AM)grampahol Wrote: https://youtu.be/3flv5nWZgII

Interesting read although with young athletes it's tough to predict the future. Sometimes the guys you least expect to find success are the ones who quietly carve out a solid career while others are a flash in the pan guys who start off like real studs, but quickly fizzle out, running backs especially. They take a real pounding in a very short period. I read somewhere (don't ask) that RBs only average 2.x years before injuries do them in and those are the good ones.. They come into the pros already pretty banged up from college ball and the pros don't make it one bit easier. WRs are similar, but sometimes speed makes the real difference as they tend to avoid the back breaking tackles moreso than RBs.. 
I tend to shy away from long term predictions simply because most of them are still learning how to avoid serious injuries and quite often a 20 year old player is not the same person on the field as the 25 year old player. Heck, in 5 short years they're often considered 'grizzly veterans'..  I don't know of too many professions where that holds true. Maybe a baseball catcher.. They take a pretty good pounding behind the plate. 

The long term predictions are mostly for funsies, but it's also to make a point about what makes a good draft class which is what I think this class really was. Getting 2 good starters, an almost starter heavy rotation player, long term kicker, and key special teamer is absolutely great

(05-11-2017, 12:17 PM)jj22 Wrote: Given that this was the deepest defensive draft in nearly 2 decades, I hope we came out of it with more than some rotational guys. That would be a significant failure.

But that's what 95% of picks turn into (or worse). We can't get all the great players in a draft and getting good contributors is great

(05-11-2017, 12:36 PM)Whatever Wrote: I am thinking Malone may be taking the majority of the #3 WR snaps by the end of next year.  There just aren't many teams that can match up with Green on one side, Malone on the other, Ross in the slot, Eifert at TE, and Mixon a threat to come out of the backfield.

Completely disagree. From what I've seen Malone has a lot to develop still, and Boyd is going to still be a very good player in the slot. If Malone does develop and see time, it will be in 2018 if anything. Malone is someone that (currently) is just speed. This isn't a bad thing right now as we have a coach that is a great developer of talent. Receivers need suddenness in their game to maximize their abilities and Malone does not have that now. Situational deep threat is a great role for him


I know I'm beating my own dead horse here but it's important to note that one of our top 3 players will not have a career unless we get insanely lucky. Based on the research I've done Willis is the most likely to not have a strong career. We had 11 picks which was great because it maximizes our ability to get contributors, but half of them will not see anything significant for their career which is just the reality of the situation. The best contributors I see are Ross, Mixon, Lawson, and Elliot, with Malone, Wilson, and maybe Glasgow being special teamers and backend rotational players. Even that is an optimistic prediction though. But that sort of contribution will make us a super bowl level team if we acquire an offensive line

[eoxyod]

(05-11-2017, 03:05 AM)J24 Wrote: A couple of question Exoyd; if we were better at WR pre draft do you think Ross would still have been the pick? In other words do you think he was the best player on the board at the time regardless of position of need? Also do you think his redzone numbers in college will translate to the NFL.

I think that depends on our WRs. If we had another guy on a long term contract (Like let's say we re-signed Marvin Jones), then it wouldn't have been worth that value there due to previous investment at the position and the team still has to think of business and spreading financials evenly. But personally I think Ross was the best football player available at that time especially since the team was obviously confident with his medicals. If say he didn't pass medicals or we were loaded at WR, I would say the Bengals' board would look like Howard, Reddick, Hooker

His redzone numbers won't completely translate, but that sort of success is something that is typically tranferable when the other factors that are addressed show up. If he was just a jump ball receiver I would say that it's not a consistent enough trait seeing as how TDs can be a moderately lucky statistic and hard to predict. Although that is mostly for RBs and not WRs.