Tempered Expectations for Draft Picks

[fredtoast]

(05-12-2017, 03:23 PM)eoxyod Wrote: 2. How many times do the top 3 players of any draft work out compared to how often they don't? You yourself preach how much a crapshoot the draft is often. I might be being negative but I would say history is on my side.

Nothing like an argument over vague semantics.

The odds are that our top 3  picks will not all pan out, but not so rare that it takes "insane luck" for it to happen.

In '06 our top 4 picks were Joseph, Whitworth, Rucker, Peko.

In '09 our top 3 were Smith, Maualuga, MJ

In '10 our top 3 were Gresham, Dunlap, Shipley. (plus Geno in the 4th).  Shipley's career was ended by injury, but he was an impact player as a rookie with 52 receptions so you can't really blame that on any poor draft selection.


So that is 3 times in the last 10 years.  Rare, but not "insanely" rare.  

[Shake n Blake]

(05-13-2017, 11:07 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Among all WRs in the league he was 53rd in receptions and 58th in yards.  So as a #3WR he ranked among what would on average be the top 2 WRs for each team (64)

Among the 58 WRs that had at least 50 receptions he ranked 46th in yards per reception.


Among rookie WRs he was 4th in receptions and 3rd in yards.


stats per 10 games with Green.........3.3 rec...34.9 yds...10.6 avg
stats per  6 games without Green.....3.5 rec...42.3 yds...12.1 avg



1 td is not great, but not horrible at all for a #3 WR.

There are 32 teams in the NFL and only 79 WRs caught as many as 3 tds.  So on average the #3 WR usually has fewer than 3 receiving tds.

But, whatever.....

But you say Boyd had the production of a #2 WR (53rd in catches, 58th in yards). Among those WRs, where did Boyd rank in YPC and TDs?

I actually like Boyd, but I have to admit those numbers are disappoiting. It shows he lacks speed to make plays as well as red zone prowess. He can obviously improve but I bet those numbers played a role in the drafting of John Ross, who has amazing speed and red zone production.

[fredtoast]

(05-13-2017, 11:29 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: He can obviously improve but I bet those numbers played a role in the drafting of John Ross, who has amazing speed and red zone production.

Ross was not drafted to replace Boyd.  He was drafted to replace LaFell.

[Shake n Blake]

(05-13-2017, 11:31 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Ross was not drafted to replace Boyd.  He was drafted to replace LaFell.

...and LaFell was/is starting. He was obviously a temporary fix. If Ross was not drafted, who do think would be starting opposite AJ Green in 2018? 

[grampahol]

There seems to be some hangups over the term 'starter' .. According to everything I've heard the starter is a guy who plays the first snap of the game.  So suppose we have nothing but great starters who all play the first snap, but that's it.  That pretty much leaves about 59 minutes of the game played by guys who don't start and everyone knows that the guys who don't start might as well get jobs mopping floors.. Right?  
Ok, I'm just being obtrustive here..  Personally I don't really care who starts the game. I'm much more interested in who finishes the game. 

[Shake n Blake]

(05-13-2017, 12:24 PM)grampahol Wrote: There seems to be some hangups over the term 'starter' .. According to everything I've heard the starter is a guy who plays the first snap of the game.  So suppose we have nothing but great starters who all play the first snap, but that's it.  That pretty much leaves about 59 minutes of the game played by guys who don't start and everyone knows that the guys who don't start might as well get jobs mopping floors.. Right?  
Ok, I'm just being obtrustive here..  Personally I don't really care who starts the game. I'm much more interested in who finishes the game. 

Perhaps I should say "gets the majority of snaps on the outside" in lieu of "starting". Would that be more suitable to your palate?

I don't think your being obtrustive so much as obtuse.

[Whatever]

(05-13-2017, 11:07 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Among all WRs in the league he was 53rd in receptions and 58th in yards.  So as a #3WR he ranked among what would on average be the top 2 WRs for each team (64)

Among the 58 WRs that had at least 50 receptions he ranked 46th in yards per reception.




Among rookie WRs he was 4th in receptions and 3rd in yards.




stats per 10 games with Green.........3.3 rec...34.9 yds...10.6 avg
stats per  6 games without Green.....3.5 rec...42.3 yds...12.1 avg



1 td is not great, but not horrible at all for a #3 WR.

There are 32 teams in the NFL and only 79 WRs caught as many as 3 tds.  So on average the #3 WR usually has fewer than 3 receiving tds.

But, whatever.....

He had a good number of catches and yards, but he also played on a team with a good QB and a poor record that was trying to come from behind a lot.  He was also effectively the #2 WR for over 1/3 of the year, and injuries at TE and RB increased the number of looks he got.  Defenses allowed him to get catches over AJ, LaFell, and Eifert because they knew he wasn't a big threat.  He was only 74th in yards/game.  He was healthy all 16 games, which boosts his numbers, but there were better WR's out there who missed time.

He had a lot of catches, but poor production per catch.  It's fair to wonder if someone else could have done more with those touches.

I stand corrected about his production dipping when Green went down, but it's also fair to point out that he did very little when he was asked to be a bigger part of the offense.  3.5 catches for 42.3 yards is poor production for a #2 WR.

108 WR's caught more TD's last year than Boyd.  Boyd has the most catches and 2nd most yards of any WR that caught one or zero TD's last year.  So, we're talking about a player that was tied for 53rd in catches, but 108th in TD's.  That's a vast disparity.

I'm not saying Boyd is complete garbage, but I don't see him ever being more than a Sanu/Caldwell type of player.

[McC]

(05-13-2017, 11:29 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: But you say Boyd had the production of a #2 WR (53rd in catches, 58th in yards). Among those WRs, where did Boyd rank in YPC and TDs?

I actually like Boyd, but I have to admit those numbers are disappoiting. It shows he lacks speed to make plays as well as red zone prowess. He can obviously improve but I bet those numbers played a role in the drafting of John Ross, who has amazing speed and red zone production.

That little route he runs in the red zone, lined up in the slot, where he starts in, then cuts out and makes the easy catch in the end zone...Don't know what the actual name for the route is, so I just call it unstoppable.  Probably some kind of an option thing.  I can't wait to see him running that one in stripes.

[magikod]

(05-11-2017, 01:22 AM)Quantum Bengal Wrote: I think Ross will definitely make an impact, but his ability to return kicks will be a big part of that.  I'm very excited to see that electric speed on the field.

I think Mixon will have the biggest impact this year.  Speaking only on his talent, he's an elite talent.

I do not want Ross returning kicks. I want him as healthy as possible. lol 

[J24]

(05-13-2017, 01:25 PM)Whatever Wrote: He had a good number of catches and yards, but he also played on a team with a good QB and a poor record that was trying to come from behind a lot.  He was also effectively the #2 WR for over 1/3 of the year, and injuries at TE and RB increased the number of looks he got.  Defenses allowed him to get catches over AJ, LaFell, and Eifert because they knew he wasn't a big threat.  He was only 74th in yards/game.  He was healthy all 16 games, which boosts his numbers, but there were better WR's out there who missed time.

He had a lot of catches, but poor production per catch.  It's fair to wonder if someone else could have done more with those touches.

I stand corrected about his production dipping when Green went down, but it's also fair to point out that he did very little when he was asked to be a bigger part of the offense.  3.5 catches for 42.3 yards is poor production for a #2 WR.

108 WR's caught more TD's last year than Boyd.  Boyd has the most catches and 2nd most yards of any WR that caught one or zero TD's last year.  So, we're talking about a player that was tied for 53rd in catches, but 108th in TD's.  That's a vast disparity.

I'm not saying Boyd is complete garbage, but I don't see him ever being more than a Sanu/Caldwell type of player.

He was a slot Wr of course his YPC is not going to be as high. That's a dumb stat to use against him.

[eoxyod]

(05-13-2017, 11:22 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Nothing like an argument over vague semantics.

The odds are that our top 3  picks will not all pan out, but not so rare that it takes "insane luck" for it to happen.

In '06 our top 4 picks were Joseph, Whitworth, Rucker, Peko.

In '09 our top 3 were Smith, Maualuga, MJ

In '10 our top 3 were Gresham, Dunlap, Shipley. (plus Geno in the 4th).  Shipley's career was ended by injury, but he was an impact player as a rookie with 52 receptions so you can't really blame that on any poor draft selection.


So that is 3 times in the last 10 years.  Rare, but not "insanely" rare.  

Then sorry for the use of hyperbolic language, but a situation like Shipley or Rucker is added on to what I mean. Even they contributed, but an issue like luck (Regarding injuries) stopped them from being the kind of players they could have been. This obviously doesn't mean they were bad picks though. Anyways no reason to fight over semantics. Love you Fred :)

[grampahol]

(05-13-2017, 12:36 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Perhaps I should say "gets the majority of snaps on the outside" in lieu of "starting". Would that be more suitable to your palate?

I don't think your being obtrustive so much as obtuse.

Yes, my palate is thoroughly cleansed now.  I had sorbet for dessert which according to the Mrs here is great for cleansing the palate. I can go with obtuse. I'm pretty easy going. 
Back to who will likely get the most playing time.. I'm guessing initially LaFell will and if Ross develops like many expect he will it'll take a little while, but he'll eventually get the majority of the playing time. If both get injured we may see Core and Malone take over. I'd love to see all 4 getting steady time on the field all producing TDs and 1st downs.. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(05-11-2017, 03:38 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: We are not ever going to be a Super Bowl contender with Marvin Lewis at the helm.

I've said this a lot, but aside from anger in-the-moment, i'm not really sure it's accurate. 

Short of just not putting players on the field that can produce positive plays, anything a coach calls, play wise, can be overruled by the QB on the field, and once the play is run regardless of the call, it's up to the players to execute it and make it positive or negative. 

So while i'm not nearly a Marvin fan, more of the success/failure of the team has to be on the guys executing the plays. Bad individual decisions; going for it on 4th down or kicking a FG when they should go on 4th down, those plays are far more the exception than the other 60-80 plays that are run during the course of a game. 

[rezolve11]

Good post. I can't wait to see.

My favorite line was:

"Jake Elliot - He will kick"

[jj22]

(05-11-2017, 02:04 PM)eoxyod Wrote: I'm not going to have this turn into a coaching thread because that isn't the point, but one thing fans of all teams have an issue with is overrating talent on the team. I do believe we are talented but people will overrate ourselves pretty consistently on that. Our coaching isn't the greatest but there are other factors involved as well. 

/coaching talk

Ok well I agree then. We should temper expectations. Next time I just won't give my reason why.

[Shake n Blake]

(05-13-2017, 02:09 PM)McC Wrote: That little route he runs in the red zone, lined up in the slot, where he starts in, then cuts out and makes the easy catch in the end zone...Don't know what the actual name for the route is, so I just call it unstoppable.  Probably some kind of an option thing.  I can't wait to see him running that one in stripes.

No doubt. I'm trying not to get overly excited about Ross/Mixon, but I can't wait to see how teams react to the speed and craftiness of Ross. He's going to make a lot of DBs very nervous.

[THE PISTONS]

Yeah...I just hope that he recovers from his shoulder injury and actually sees the field. We're a bit snake-bitten as a franchise in some ways with rookies.