Tesla Solar Roof

[Au165]

I think it is really interesting the way Musk has approached business. Here we have a roof made of a mixture of solar panels and dumb panels that can power a house. People keep thinking Tesla is all over the place in what it does, but really it all comes back to the batteries. The solar panels, like the car, are vehicles to sell batteries. The Power Wall in the case of the solar roof is used for storage of that power harnessed by the panels.

Price wise it is expensive. They pitch it as the same price, but they use the yearly savings over time when saying it is basically the same as a conventional roof. Upfront it is going to be more expensive, but honestly that is understandable. The roof itself is nice looking and they do offer a very attractive "life time" warranty for the panels. The obvious question of how durable are they is answered with a video of an ice ball being shot at a panel at 100mph and doing no noticeable damage, compared to it shattering other conventional roofing materials.

If I was building a house, I think I'd consider doing this because in the long run it could be a nice savings. The other advantage is you are "off the grid" in a sense that if the neighborhood goes down you are still up and running no problem. I am kind of excited where some of these things in general are heading.

Here is an article on it
https://electrek.co/2017/05/10/tesla-solar-roof-tiles-price-warranty/

[JustWinBaby]

It's interesting, and not bad looking (though I'd like to see a real world example rather than an artist rendering).

I'd be a little dubious of some of the claims of savings. Payback on solar panels is widely considered to be 8-10 years, depending on rates you get for selling excess power generation. And solar panels lose efficiency over time, so how does their math work such that there's no replacement cost (which normal roofs have, as well)?

If this could actually work in the dreary winter months of the midwest and east, it would be an incredible development. Better than the Tesla cars, which still can't be produced at a profit without tax incentives. And Tesla is kind of new to the solar panel game, so I'm skeptical of claims made that more experienced manufacturers can't deliver.

[Au165]

(05-11-2017, 12:24 PM)JustWinBaby Wrote: It's interesting, and not bad looking (though I'd like to see a real world example rather than an artist rendering).

I'd be a little dubious of some of the claims of savings.  Payback on solar panels is widely considered to be 8-10 years, depending on rates you get for selling excess power generation.  And solar panels lose efficiency over time, so how does their math work such that there's no replacement cost (which normal roofs have, as well)?

If this could actually work in the dreary winter months of the midwest and east, it would be an incredible development.  Better than the Tesla cars, which still can't be produced at a profit without tax incentives.  And Tesla is kind of new to the solar panel game, so I'm skeptical of claims made that more experienced manufacturers can't deliver.

As for the pay back, that is why I mentioned only really being interested if I was building a new home. If I buitl a new home I'd expect to be there for a long time at this point so it would be a long term play. They warranty against "power loss" for 30 years, so if they do lose efficiency (can't be sure they will without knowing more) they will be replaced.

While they are new to the solar power game, they are quite innovative in the battery game so I wonder if some of those innovations carried over. As for the Car's not produced for profit, last year they made 21% gross profit on their cars. The new Model 3 is projected to be able to clear 25% gross profit on it which would put it at a very high margin on an entry level luxury car. The only time anyone actually believes they lose money on cars is when they try factoring administrative costs and R&D, but that spans other segments than simply the motor side of the company and can't really be applied to a per unit basis.

[JustWinBaby]

(05-11-2017, 12:42 PM)Au165 Wrote: The only time anyone actually believes they lose money on cars is when they try factoring administrative costs and R&D, but that spans other segments than simply the motor side of the company and can't really be applied to a per unit basis.

Well, admin costs and R&D is part of building a car.  While some of that is growth and other initiatives, you are also ignoring massive tax credits they've been getting to subsidize their vehicles, both directly to the company and indirectly to the consumer.  The tax incentives alone make up at least half of that "25% gross margin".

If I take Ford and GM, with R&D and SG&A 14-15% of sales....Obviously they have a much larger base to spread those costs, but factor that in and a generous 10% tax incentive and you realize Tesla doesn't make a profit on its cars (and we're talking high-end luxury, which has much higher margins than Ford and GM average fleet).

[Au165]

(05-11-2017, 01:44 PM)JustWinBaby Wrote: Well, admin costs and R&D is part of building a car.  While some of that is growth and other initiatives, you are also ignoring massive tax credits they've been getting to subsidize their vehicles, both directly to the company and indirectly to the consumer.  The tax incentives alone make up at least half of that "25% gross margin".

If I take Ford and GM, with R&D and SG&A 14-15% of sales....Obviously they have a much larger base to spread those costs, but factor that in and a generous 10% tax incentive and you realize Tesla doesn't make a profit on its cars (and we're talking high-end luxury, which has much higher margins than Ford and GM average fleet).

Let's start backwards and work forwards. BMW makes about 9.5% on their cars and Mercedes 7.9%, Porsche's 18% is closer inline with what Tesla makes on their cars but still not as high. Even if you want to try and argue the incentives are propping up the margins, I disagree seeing as the EV credit is $7,500 and won't even apply to the Model 3 in the 25% projections by analysts. As far as direct incentives Tesla has received 4.9 Billion from the government across ALL AREAS OF WORK, while Ford has gotten 2.3 Billion in just the last 15 years to build nothing but cars. The subsidies was an investment in building up their infrastructure which is finally in place.

As for the admin costs and R&D, they are not part of "building a car" it is part of building a company that one of their product lines are cars and there is the issue with trying to distribute it evenly across their car line only. The cost incurred with building the giga factory are included in that "loss per car" figure but it is supply line investment to multiple business lines. With them controlling the supply of arguably the most important component to the cars their margins will continue to grow on the cars though. That R&D also was fed into the power wall which will be sold as part of the solar roof project which will also generate revenue. Applying it all up front to the automobile business and a per car figure is a short sighted view of a larger company. I have seen figures that put them closer to making around 21k per Model S they sell, this is when accounting for only expenses directly related to the automobile side.

It's all kind of an aside to this specific product, but interesting to discuss none the less.

[fredtoast]

Solar power si the futyre. the sooner we realize this and get on board the better.

right now Chiona is spending billions on solar R&D while here in the US the supporters of the poil companiea are convinciong everyone that "solar power is not profitable and will not work".

the fact that it is not profitable now is no reason to abandon R&D and just depend on oil to last forever.

[WeezyBengal]

I can get behind some of Elon Musk's ideas (solar panels, battery powered cars, etc) but some of his ideas aren't for me.

Im not really in favor of colonizing Mars and Musk takes a socialist approach (equal shared income) when it comes to economics. Just not for me.

I agree though, the solar panel roofing looks pretty revolutionary...if it ever takes off.

[Au165]

(05-12-2017, 02:59 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I can get behind some of Elon Musk's ideas (solar panels, battery powered cars, etc) but some of his ideas aren't for me.

Im not really in favor of colonizing Mars and Musk takes a socialist approach (equal shared income) when it comes to economics. Just not for me.

I agree though, the solar panel roofing looks pretty revolutionary...if it ever takes off.

The Mars thing is kind of a moon shot, but hey you never know.