2018 Compensatory Picks

[Luvnit2]

It appears Bengals may have 10 draft picks in 2018.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000813295/article/projecting-compensatory-picks-for-2018-nfl-draft

It predicts an extra 3, 5 and 7

I don't always agree with not going after one or 2 big name free agents every 3 to 5 years, but definitely a way to keep our team young and fresh getting extra picks each year while also helping to manage the cap.

[corpjet]

We (the front office) have lived by the philosophy these picks are Gold, we need to keep turning them into young assets.

[Luvnit2]

(06-07-2017, 08:52 AM)corpjet Wrote: We (the front office) have lived by the philosophy these picks are Gold, we need to keep turning them into young assets.

The Steelers have used the same philosophy as have teams like the Packers. No arguing it has not led to us winning playoff games or more, but big arguments if this strategy is the cause.

[*ochocincos*]

(06-07-2017, 08:42 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: It appears Bengals may have 10 draft picks in 2018.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000813295/article/projecting-compensatory-picks-for-2018-nfl-draft

It predicts an extra 3, 5 and 7

I don't always agree with not going after one or 2 big name free agents every 3 to 5 years, but definitely a way to keep our team young and fresh getting extra picks each year while also helping to manage the cap.

Until the Bengals actually hit on some of these comp picks, there will still be criticism of allowing the proven players walk for the sake of a mid-late round pick in next year's draft.
IIRC, none of their comp picks in the past have ever panned out.

[Luvnit2]

(06-07-2017, 09:22 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Until the Bengals actually hit on some of these comp picks, there will still be criticism of allowing the proven players walk for the sake of a mid-late round pick in next year's draft.
IIRC, none of their comp picks in the past have ever panned out.

You are saying definitively that no comp picks have ever made the team or contributed?

[Crowe]

(06-07-2017, 09:22 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Until the Bengals actually hit on some of these comp picks, there will still be criticism of allowing the proven players walk for the sake of a mid-late round pick in next year's draft.
IIRC, none of their comp picks in the past have ever panned out.

The draft is a crap shoot from pick 1 to the last pick. There is no way to predict how things will work out, but the more picks you have the better your chances are to grab at least 1 quality player.

[*ochocincos*]

(06-07-2017, 09:37 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: You are saying definitively that no comp picks have ever made the team or contributed?

Have become good contributors on O/D, and no it's not definitive. If there were any decent O/D contributors that were comp picks, I can't recall them.

I was just thinking of the comp picks from the past give years or so (Flowers, Westbrooks, Fragel, TJ Johnson, Dawson, Hardison).
Out of those, TJ Johnson has been the best but he's been a backup with about 1-2 good games.
Having proven players leave to get the above players has looked to be a poor decision.

Were Landon Johnson, Andre Caldwell, Chinedum Ndukwe, Bernard Scott comp picks?
If so, then I clearly was wrong about comp picks not making a good O/D impact, but there sure hasn't been one in awhile.

[*ochocincos*]

(06-07-2017, 09:56 AM)Crowe Wrote: The draft is a crap shoot from pick 1 to the last pick. There is no way to predict how things will work out, but the more picks you have the better your chances are to grab at least 1 quality player.

I understand that, which is why it gets more frustrating to see proven players leave for the sake of getting a mid-late round comp pick that may or may not be any kind of solid O/D contributor (although in some cases like Sanu, I'm glad they left because IMO they got way overpaid). It just sucks that if such a good player like Zeitler leaves, the best return it can bring is the 97th pick in next year's draft. Zeitler was a first rounder, and it's very difficult to replace someone that talented with a third round comp pick (or worse).

[Au165]

(06-07-2017, 10:19 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I understand that, which is why it gets more frustrating to see proven players leave for the sake of getting a mid-late round comp pick that may or may not be any kind of solid O/D contributor (although in some cases like Sanu, I'm glad they left because IMO they got way overpaid). It just sucks that if such a good player like Zeitler leaves, the best return it can bring is the 97th pick in next year's draft. Zeitler was a first rounder, and it's very difficult to replace someone that talented with a third round comp pick (or worse).

There are two parts of the comp pick equation there is the leaving part, but also who you replace them with. In a salary cap league you have to let top level guys league occasionally, that is how it works. I think most fans frustration is with the lack of replacing them with a slightly lower tier player at a lower price in order to garner these comp picks. I accept we have to let guys go, but I'd prefer we bring in guys like we did with Minter who are that next tier so our drop offs in the short run are limited.

[*ochocincos*]

(06-07-2017, 10:27 AM)Au165 Wrote: There are two parts of the comp pick equation there is the leaving part, but also who you replace them with. In a salary cap league you have to let top level guys league occasionally, that is how it works. I think most fans frustration is with the lack of replacing them with a slightly lower tier player at a lower price in order to garner these comp picks. I accept we have to let guys go, but I'd prefer we bring in guys like we did with Minter who are that next tier so our drop offs in the short run are limited.

I agree with your approach, would much rather see that. But instead it's allowing the very good players leave without bringing in what many feel is a good enough replacement just for the sake of the comp pick (which may or may not pan out, and if he does pan out, likely will take 2-3 years to do so).

[Beaker]

(06-07-2017, 10:19 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I understand that, which is why it gets more frustrating to see proven players leave for the sake of getting a mid-late round comp pick that may or may not be any kind of solid O/D contributor (although in some cases like Sanu, I'm glad they left because IMO they got way overpaid). It just sucks that if such a good player like Zeitler leaves, the best return it can bring is the 97th pick in next year's draft. Zeitler was a first rounder, and it's very difficult to replace someone that talented with a third round comp pick (or worse).

I think you're analogy is a bit off. The Bengals don't let those players walk so they can get a comp pick, they are not signing FAs to replace those players and in doing so are getting extra draft picks. So for example, letting Zeitler walk because the browns made him the highest paid G in the NFL, not because they wanted an extra mid round pick. And the players they are letting walk, usually already have planned replacements waiting in the wings. The Bengals knew they were losing Andre Smith and Whit, and used two 1st round picks to try and plan for that....they didn't try to replace them with mid round picks. But by planning to replace them by drafting their replacements rather than signing some FA tackles got them some extra draft picks for the future, plus keeps their salary cap manageable. FA signings can be just as big a crap shoot as draft picks, and theyre way more expensive.

[*ochocincos*]

(06-07-2017, 10:40 AM)Beaker Wrote: I think you're analogy is a bit off. The Bengals don't let those players walk so they can get a comp pick, they are not signing FAs to replace those players and in doing so are getting extra draft picks. So for example, letting Zeitler walk because the browns made him the highest paid G in the NFL, not because they wanted an extra mid round pick. And the players they are letting walk, usually already have planned replacements waiting in the wings. The Bengals knew they were losing Andre Smith and Whit, and used two 1st round picks to try and plan for that....they didn't try to replace them with mid round picks. But by planning to replace them by drafting their replacements rather than signing some FA tackles got them some extra draft picks for the future, plus keeps their salary cap manageable. FA signings can be just as big a crap shoot as draft picks, and theyre way more expensive.

I understand all that, no need to try to explain. But it's definitely true that the Bengals intentionally avoid signing FAs and instead more often target cut players during the initial FA period because it could affect comp picks.
And yes, when the Bengals have a top player like Whitworth, Zeitler, or even Nelson leave in FA and don't have someone in that the fans believe is at or near the same level of player, fans are skeptical. The fans don't want to see a decline at a position, especially if it means a regression in terms of W-L record.

I guess the point I was more trying to get at (which apparently I did a poor job since it seems so many people are disagreeing with me) is that the Bengals should be more active in FA by retaining their own good-to-great players or replacing them with proven veterans without worrying about what comp picks. Because at least for the past five years, none of the comp picks drafted have become starters or even big contributors on offense or defense.

[Beaker]

(06-07-2017, 10:55 AM)ochocincos Wrote: And yes, when the Bengals have a top player like Whitworth, Zeitler, or even Nelson leave in FA and don't have someone in that the fans believe is at or near the same level of player, fans are skeptical. The fans don't want to see a decline at a position, especially if it means a regression in terms of W-L record.

But that's my point. Replacing established experienced players is difficult. Like I said, the NFL is littered with high priced FA signings who did not perform as expected for their new teams...and were expensive. The Bengals are smart not to get into salary cap purgatory with high priced FAs. When Whit worth left, what FA left tackle would you have wanted the Bengals to sign to replace him? And you also gotta believe that the coaches know a player better. The Bengals offer to Whitworth was good....but it was for one year. The rams offered comparable money for 2 years. I gotta think the coaches know why they didn't want to offer him a second year. Maybe they are seeing a decline in play that we are yet to notice as fans.
In any case, when you have a good roster, you are going to lose good players to FA and turnover. Having as many draft picks stocked up as possible helps to remedy some of that. And as far as regression of W-L record....the Bengals regressed with those good players still here. You have bad years. The trick is to minimize the down years which the Bengals have been very good at doing recently.

[Luvnit2]

(06-07-2017, 10:16 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Have become good contributors on O/D, and no it's not definitive. If there were any decent O/D contributors that were comp picks, I can't recall them.

I was just thinking of the comp picks from the past give years or so (Flowers, Westbrooks, Fragel, TJ Johnson, Dawson, Hardison).
Out of those, TJ Johnson has been the best but he's been a backup with about 1-2 good games.
Having proven players leave to get the above players has looked to be a poor decision.

Were Landon Johnson, Andre Caldwell, Chinedum Ndukwe, Bernard Scott comp picks?
If so, then I clearly was wrong about comp picks not making a good O/D impact, but there sure hasn't been one in awhile.

The bigger question that needs to be answered is were good NFL players available when we made the comp picks. If so, it is not the comp pick philosophy, it is poor drafting that is the issue. I have a busy few days, but when I get time I will try to look back since the new CBA (2011) and get some facts

[Luvnit2]

(06-07-2017, 10:40 AM)Beaker Wrote: I think you're analogy is a bit off. The Bengals don't let those players walk so they can get a comp pick, they are not signing FAs to replace those players and in doing so are getting extra draft picks. So for example, letting Zeitler walk because the browns made him the highest paid G in the NFL, not because they wanted an extra mid round pick. And the players they are letting walk, usually already have planned replacements waiting in the wings. The Bengals knew they were losing Andre Smith and Whit, and used two 1st round picks to try and plan for that....they didn't try to replace them with mid round picks. But by planning to replace them by drafting their replacements rather than signing some FA tackles got them some extra draft picks for the future, plus keeps their salary cap manageable. FA signings can be just as big a crap shoot as draft picks, and theyre way more expensive.

Great post. It explains a complicated process in simple terms.

[Au165]

(06-07-2017, 11:09 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: The bigger question that needs to be answered is were good NFL players available when we made the comp picks. If so, it is not the comp pick philosophy, it is poor drafting that is the issue. I have a busy few days, but when I get time I will try to look back since the new CBA (2011) and get some facts

Well that can be said for every pick ever, because every year good players come from UDFAs. Drafting is a crap shot, it really is that simple. Teams go through hot and cold spells. Seattle had a hot run leading up to their Super Bowl, but have been pretty unimpressive since.

[Luvnit2]

(06-07-2017, 10:55 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I understand all that, no need to try to explain. But it's definitely true that the Bengals intentionally avoid signing FAs and instead more often target cut players during the initial FA period because it could affect comp picks.
And yes, when the Bengals have a top player like Whitworth, Zeitler, or even Nelson leave in FA and don't have someone in that the fans believe is at or near the same level of player, fans are skeptical. The fans don't want to see a decline at a position, especially if it means a regression in terms of W-L record.

I guess the point I was more trying to get at (which apparently I did a poor job since it seems so many people are disagreeing with me) is that the Bengals should be more active in FA by retaining their own good-to-great players or replacing them with proven veterans without worrying about what comp picks. Because at least for the past five years, none of the comp picks drafted have become starters or even big contributors on offense or defense.

You also have to factor in the bengals did replace Zeitler with a former 1st round pick (Smith) and then in 2018 they will get a 3rd pick also. As was mentioned, you can't overpay to keep guys on the roster as significantly as they would have with Zeitler. Whittworth wanted more than a 1 year deal and got it, not sure it was great decision to pay him multiple years like Rams did, time will tell.

[Luvnit2]

(06-07-2017, 11:13 AM)Au165 Wrote: Well that can be said for every pick ever, because every year good players come from UDFAs. Drafting is a crap shot, it really is that simple. Teams go through hot and cold spells. Seattle had a hot run leading up to their Super Bowl, but have been pretty unimpressive since.

No doubt it is hardest thing to do, draft well year in and year out. But if you just look at the odds, having more 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th round picks than other teams helps the odds in picking winners.

[*ochocincos*]

(06-07-2017, 11:09 AM)Beaker Wrote: But that's my point. Replacing established experienced players is difficult. Like I said, the NFL is littered with high priced FA signings who did not perform as expected for their new teams...and were expensive. The Bengals are smart not to get into salary cap purgatory with high priced FAs. When Whit worth left, what FA left tackle would you have wanted the Bengals to sign to replace him? And you also gotta believe that the coaches know a player better. The Bengals offer to Whitworth was good....but it was for one year. The rams offered comparable money for 2 years. I gotta think the coaches know why they didn't want to offer him a second year. Maybe they are seeing a decline in play that we are yet to notice as fans.
In any case, when you have a good roster, you are going to lose good players to FA and turnover. Having as many draft picks stocked up as possible helps to remedy some of that. And as far as regression of W-L record....the Bengals regressed with those good players still here. You have bad years. The trick is to minimize the down years which the Bengals have been very good at doing recently.

Russell Okung was who I wanted. You may point out he actually was given a bigger contract than Whitworth, but I would expect that given he's only 28 years old. I just have a lack of faith that Ogbuehi will become any kind of decent at LT and felt LT was too important of a position to replace with the likes of Ogbuehi if there is a goal to try and win playoff game(s) in the next couple years.

[Au165]

(06-07-2017, 11:17 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: No doubt it is hardest thing to do, draft well year in and year out. But if you just look at the odds, having more 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th round picks than other teams helps the odds in picking winners.

That is true, but at the same time, buying lottery tickets is never a solid retirement strategy.