NFL Inflation

[THE PISTONS]

I keep hearing, this player got overpaid. That player got overpaid. No Guard is worth $10+ million.

Reality: The salary cap was $120 million in 2012. It's $167 million this year.

$10 million in todays dollars is equivalent to about $7.5 million in 2012. Would you have been ok giving a Guard like Zeitler $8.5 million in 2012?

The cap keeps going up:

It was $133 million in 2014.
$143.28 million in 2015.
$155.27 million in 2016.
$167 million this year.

The talk that we need to hoard cap space to retain our own is a myth. It's went up by approximately $10 million a year since 2012.

NFL inflation. Our minds aren't keeping up with this extreme inflation. Our reference point for salaries is skewed. We're thinking in terms of pre-2012 NFL dollars.

[muskiesfan]

As I said in another thread, I agree with what you're saying. I would have had no problem keeping Zeitler at $10m per year. I know it's only $2m, but I wouldn't want to keep him at $12m a year. I would take someone like DeCastro for $12m a year. Sanu averages $6.5m a year and I believe that he was overpaid. His production did not warrant that type of contract.

Why some people do not value interior OLine is beyond me. The way the Bengals are going, it appears they don't value OLine at all at this point.

People do need to understand and wrap their heads around the fact that the salary cap rises every year, so position values will also rise every year. That's why people worried about Dalton making $16m a year are missing out that it's actually a great value. Look at what lesser QBs have been signing for because of the rise in cap.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Even with the cap increasing, QB contracts have gotten out of control with now a $25m/yr deal. Back in 2005, Palmer signed a 10yr/$119.5m deal, so $11.95m/yr of a $85.5m cap, or 13.98% of the cap.

On today's cap of $167m, that would be $23.35m/yr, instead of the 14.97% that $25m/yr represents.

Granted that's not an enormous increase, but it's just going to be the start of QBs getting an absurdly disproportionately large piece of the pie. I guess where it's most visible is what the mediocre/bad QBs are making. Ryan Tannehill making over $19m/yr, Brock Osweiler and Sam Bradford both making $18m/yr, Mike Glennon making $15m/yr, etc. There are currently 14 QBs making over $20m/yr.

Going back to your 2012 reference point, $20m threshold in 2017 would be roughly $14.37m/yr in 2012. Only 8 QBs reached that threshold in 2012. Went from 8 to 14 in just a couple years. So there are some positions out there that have gotten all screwed up cap-wise.


- - - - - - - -

Back to your Zeitler topic, even if you account for cap space differences, that would still put him at $8.62m/yr in 2012 cap. That would have still made him the 2nd highest paid guard in the entire NFL. Zeitler is an above average OL, but he's sure as hell not the second best in the NFL. Or even top 5.

They could have gotten TJ Lang (2016 Pro Bowler) for $9.5m/yr, or Larry Warford for $8.5m/yr, not signed Andre Smith and signed Zuttah instead (same cost), and then they could still afford to re-sign Andrew Whitworth with their cap space left.

Whitworth/Boling/Zuttah/Lang/Fisher
Ogbuehi/Boling/Bodine/A Smith/Fisher

Which is more comforting to look at? Lol

[THE PISTONS]

Great points! Agreed on QB's that their salaries have escalated far faster than the cap.

Your line with Lang on it would be awesome! Unfortunately, we choose to roll the dice with what we have and retain $18.6 million cap space rather than look to upgrade.

[TKUHL]

It's already being reported that a strike is unavoidable in 2021. Our luck we will be good that year going undefeated at the halfway mark only to strike.

[muskiesfan]

(08-20-2017, 07:37 PM)TKUHL Wrote: It's already being reported that a strike is unavoidable in 2021. Our luck we will be good that year going undefeated at the halfway mark only to strike.

That's the stuff that kills me. There's no reason to strike. The league is making so much money. So are the owners, so are the players. I do not understand why everyone wants to derail the gravy train.

[TKUHL]

(08-20-2017, 07:42 PM)muskiesfan Wrote: That's the stuff that kills me. There's no reason to strike. The league is making so much money. So are the owners, so are the players. I do not understand why everyone wants to derail the gravy train.

I dunno, there's always someone that wants to screw it up for everyone.

[BoomerFan]

I agree. And BTW, if the Steelers had no trouble keeping David DeCastro, we should have had no trouble keeping Zeitler. Or we could have paid Andrew Whitworth. Pay him a mint -- he's earned it. Or if you must be stingy, franchise him. I know it sort of wouldn't be great for him (though getting $16 million this year would've been nice) but it would be what is best for the team. Meanwhile, you spend draft picks on OL not skill guys. You do that until your OL is good into the future. If you have to reach, so be it. This team is going nowhere if Dalton is injured or rushed so that every throw is inaccurate.

[THE PISTONS]

(08-20-2017, 07:37 PM)TKUHL Wrote: It's already being reported that a strike is unavoidable in 2021. Our luck we will be good that year going undefeated at the halfway mark only to strike.

I don't know. 4 more years Green and Atkins will be 33. Dunlap will be 32.

Our current stars will be really old then by NFL standards.

[TKUHL]

(08-20-2017, 08:44 PM)BoomerFan Wrote: I agree. And BTW, if the Steelers had no trouble keeping David DeCastro, we should have had no trouble keeping Zeitler. Or we could have paid Andrew Whitworth. Pay him a mint -- he's earned if. Or if you must be stingy, franchise him. I know it sort of wouldn't be great for him (though getting $16 million this year would've been nice) but it would be what is best for the team. Meanwhile, you spend draft picks on OL not skill guys. You do that until your OL is good into the future. If you have to reach, so be it. This team is going nowhere if Dalton is injured or rushed so that every throw is inaccurate.

I just ranted about this in another thread. But your right. I know OG and Fisher was Whit and Dre's replacement but once it looked like it was going to be a bad idea they should have done everything possible to keep Whit. Just having Whit right now would help this line tremendously. Zeitler I kinda get why but they should have never even let him smell FA. They knew someone would thrown a ton a money his way that he couldn't refuse. Sucks that it's the Browns. I'm just very disappointed at the lack of urgency to fix this damn line this offseason. But shame on me for being surprised.

[THE PISTONS]

(08-20-2017, 08:44 PM)BoomerFan Wrote: I agree. And BTW, if the Steelers had no trouble keeping David DeCastro, we should have had no trouble keeping Zeitler. Or we could have paid Andrew Whitworth. Pay him a mint -- he's earned if. Or if you must be stingy, franchise him. I know it sort of wouldn't be great for him (though getting $16 million this year would've been nice) but it would be what is best for the team. Meanwhile, you spend draft picks on OL not skill guys. You do that until your OL is good into the future. If you have to reach, so be it. This team is going nowhere if Dalton is injured or rushed so that every throw is inaccurate.

It seems the consensus among fans is to not franchise tag Whitworth or Zeitler...let them walk. Have a bad offensive line and put $16.6 million cap space into the Bengals pockets.

[Whatever]

(08-20-2017, 10:36 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I keep hearing, this player got overpaid. That player got overpaid. No Guard is worth $10+ million.

Reality: The salary cap was $120 million in 2012. It's $167 million this year.

$10 million in todays dollars is equivalent to about $7.5 million in 2012. Would you have been ok giving a Guard like Zeitler $8.5 million in 2012?

The cap keeps going up:

It was $133 million in 2014.
$143.28 million in 2015.
$155.27 million in 2016.
$167 million this year.

The talk that we need to hoard cap space to retain our own is a myth. It's went up by approximately $10 million a year since 2012.

NFL inflation. Our minds aren't keeping up with this extreme inflation. Our reference point for salaries is skewed. We're thinking in terms of pre-2012 NFL dollars.

Paying Zeitler $8.5 mil a year in 2012 would be especially dumb. In 2017, only 10 G's average $8.5 mil a year or more.  He would be just as grossly overpaid back then at that rate as he is now with his current rate.  Only an idiot would hand that kind of deal to a good, but not great, RG.  

Reality is, with what G's currently make in the NFL, Zeitler is a $6-7 mil a year player that is getting paid almost twice what a player of his caliber at his position should be paid.  

[TKUHL]

(08-20-2017, 09:28 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I don't know. 4 more years Green and Atkins will be 33. Dunlap will be 32.

Our current stars will be really old then by NFL standards.

But! We won't have Marvin. If we still do then something went terribly wrong. Marvin did say he would retire if we win a SB right.

[Sled21]

(08-20-2017, 07:42 PM)muskiesfan Wrote: That's the stuff that kills me. There's no reason to strike. The league is making so much money. So are the owners, so are the players. I do not understand why everyone wants to derail the gravy train.

Exactly right. The money these players make is just stupid. It's become all about "well so and so got that, so I have to get this". Not to say the owners aren't making money as well, but they are running a business, the players are playing a game. If I was an owner, and the players went on strike, I'd get together with the other owners in an agreement to fire them all. Start over the next year with a new draft. It's not like kids coming out of college are going to balk at signing multi million dollar contracts that are not ridiculous. It would take maybe 3 or 4 years and the league would be right back where it was a far as talent, and the ridiculous demands would be gone. And I would be way tougher than Gooddell when it comes to player misconduct. If you make millions of dollars representing a team and a league, and you can't control your behavior for a few years while doing it, then you would be gone. Players Association or not.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-20-2017, 10:57 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Even with the cap increasing, QB contracts have gotten out of control with now a $25m/yr deal. Back in 2005, Palmer signed a 10yr/$119.5m deal, so $11.95m/yr of a $85.5m cap, or 13.98% of the cap.

On today's cap of $167m, that would be $23.35m/yr, instead of the 14.97% that $25m/yr represents.

Granted that's not an enormous increase, but it's just going to be the start of QBs getting an absurdly disproportionately large piece of the pie. I guess where it's most visible is what the mediocre/bad QBs are making. Ryan Tannehill making over $19m/yr, Brock Osweiler and Sam Bradford both making $18m/yr, Mike Glennon making $15m/yr, etc. There are currently 14 QBs making over $20m/yr.

Going back to your 2012 reference point, $20m threshold in 2017 would be roughly $14.37m/yr in 2012. Only 8 QBs reached that threshold in 2012. Went from 8 to 14 in just a couple years. So there are some positions out there that have gotten all screwed up cap-wise.


- - - - - - - -

Back to your Zeitler topic, even if you account for cap space differences, that would still put him at $8.62m/yr in 2012 cap. That would have still made him the 2nd highest paid guard in the entire NFL. Zeitler is an above average OL, but he's sure as hell not the second best in the NFL. Or even top 5.

They could have gotten TJ Lang (2016 Pro Bowler) for $9.5m/yr, or Larry Warford for $8.5m/yr, not signed Andre Smith and signed Zuttah instead (same cost), and then they could still afford to re-sign Andrew Whitworth with their cap space left.

Whitworth/Boling/Zuttah/Lang/Fisher
Ogbuehi/Boling/Bodine/A Smith/Fisher

Which is more comforting to look at? Lol

While the bolded is likely true, it just takes one team who thinks said player is worth a contract like that in order for that player to get paid like a top talent. That team may be overpaying out of necessity rather than actually feeling that player is an elite talent, but it doesn't matter to them. All they care about is trying to win it all. Whatever it takes.

If I were looking for a job and a company offered me X and said I wasn't as good as I thought I deserved, I'd be looking elsewhere to see if other companies would offer me more. Most FAs do the same to set their market value.

[bengalhoel]

(08-20-2017, 07:42 PM)muskiesfan Wrote: That's the stuff that kills me. There's no reason to strike. The league is making so much money. So are the owners, so are the players. I do not understand why everyone wants to derail the gravy train.

Its because the NFL players are looking at these NBA contracts and thinking "Hey, the NFL is way more dangerous, and we make way less". 
What these guys don't understand is the NBA has considerably less players than the NFL and the league is centered around the star players.

 I dont care what Richard Sherman says. I do not want him making more than the person that owns the team or the price of going to a game is going to be out of reach for a blue collar fan.  Hell, even the price of NFL ticket is raising 20 dollars this year.

[THE PISTONS]

(08-21-2017, 12:37 AM)TKUHL Wrote: But! We won't have Marvin. If we still do then something went terribly wrong. Marvin did say he would retire if we win a SB right.

What people don't get is...a lot of coaches couldn't co-exist with Mike Brown. Marvin Lewis can. He is the perfect coach for this franchise from that perspective.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-21-2017, 01:06 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: What people don't get is...a lot of coaches couldn't co-exist with Mike Brown. Marvin Lewis can. He is the perfect coach for this franchise from that perspective.

Successfully co-existing and failing at winning even a single playoff gamein 14 years... is still failing.

[grampahol]

It comes back to the ultimate goal of every team which by the way is NOT to win championships, but to make a profit and by every business standard these teams, even last place teams are profitable. 
You can say Cincinnati has no championship team, but you do. There's a Kroger in nearly every major city in the United States and they're not going out of business any time soon. Proctor and Gamble sells soap all over the world. They're very profitable. The goal of business is to turn profits and if it weren't for the players union we'd be watching players paid minimum wage..
Of course you don't tune in every few hours just to watch Kroger and soap commercials, but millions of women used to tune in every day to watch soaps..

[THE PISTONS]

(08-21-2017, 10:36 PM)grampahol Wrote: It comes back to the ultimate goal of every team which by the way is NOT to win championships, but to make a profit and by every business standard these teams, even last place teams are profitable. 

The NFL has revenue sharing. The salary cap is based off of a percentage of the revenue. ALL teams will earn a profit unlike sports like hockey and baseball.

Pretty much every team in the league wants to win a championship.

23 teams have been to the Super Bowl since we last won a playoff game. 23 teams! They're obviously trying to win championships.

The NFL had to put the salary cap floor in for teams like the Bengals and several others who don't like to spend in free agency.