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Are we a great drafting team as many claim? (This is from August 2017)
Well our past 5 years of draft classes rank:
26.
Tyler Eifert is the only Bengal currently on the roster to crack the top 100 individual players (guard Kevin Zeitler left for Cleveland in free agency). Health has been a reoccurring issue during Eifert’s young career, but when on the field he’s proved to be a dynamic talent, as he’s led NFL tight ends each of the last two seasons in deep ball catch rate.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-teams-five-year-success-by-draft-class
This tends to back my assertion that we've been living off of 2 great classes (Green, Dalton, Boling and Dunlap, Atkins)...with most of our recent drafts being Below Average.
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This seems like common sense, so I'm not sure why anyone would argue with you over it. This team has fallen apart for a reason. We let a lot of talented players walk, relied 100% on the draft to replace them, and failed miserably. Our drafts have let us down lately. That's why we're losing.
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and people say we draft well......ugh
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Quote:The rankings were inspired by his “Wins Above Replacement” (WAR) model, which compares the expected wins for a player’s team with or without his contributions.
Sounds only slightly more subjective than Madden ratings.
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(11-21-2017, 03:09 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Are we a great drafting team as many claim? (This is from August 2017)
Well our past 5 years of draft classes rank:
26.
Tyler Eifert is the only Bengal currently on the roster to crack the top 100 individual players (guard Kevin Zeitler left for Cleveland in free agency). Health has been a reoccurring issue during Eifert’s young career, but when on the field he’s proved to be a dynamic talent, as he’s led NFL tight ends each of the last two seasons in deep ball catch rate.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-teams-five-year-success-by-draft-class
This tends to back my assertion that we've been living off of 2 great classes (Green, Dalton, Boling and Dunlap, Atkins)...with most of our recent drafts being Below Average.
Also goes to show you that 5 years isn't good enough to gauge a team's success.
The Steelers are 30 on the list;
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(11-21-2017, 05:19 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Also goes to show you that 5 years isn't good enough to gauge a team's success.
The Steelers are 30 on the list;
I'm guessing because, largely, they're pretty balanced. The list seems slanted towards teams that have picked up a few explosive receivers or pass rushers in a short period. Which is great, but — just like we've done in a couple drafts during the Marvin years — not the norm. Lineman, who most people would probably agree are where good teams are built, didn't start popping up until the bottom third of the guy's ranking.
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(11-21-2017, 04:00 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: This seems like common sense, so I'm not sure why anyone would argue with you over it. This team has fallen apart for a reason. We let a lot of talented players walk, relied 100% on the draft to replace them, and failed miserably. Our drafts have let us down lately. That's why we're losing.
Precisely. That's been my contention. Free agency ripped us apart the past 2 seasons and the incoming draft picks haven't produced at an equal level.
We start some 9 guys that grade out as Poor at their position by PFF. That isn't all coaching.
We're the 26th ranked drafting team by PFF over the last 5 years in actual player production.
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(11-21-2017, 04:53 PM)Benton Wrote: Sounds only slightly more subjective than Madden ratings.
The PFF ratings are nothing like the Madden rankings. They are comparable to wins above replacement in baseball. They look at actual production.
They bridge the gap between statements like: We draft great because we have 38 drafted guys on the roster! and Actual production of those guys.
When you look at actual production on the field of draft picks over the last 5 years...we're 26th. BEHIND Cleveland.
Does anyone argue this? Eifert is our best player drafted over the past 5 years. Eifert. He's basically missed the equivalent of 2 seasons.
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(11-21-2017, 05:19 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Also goes to show you that 5 years isn't good enough to gauge a team's success.
The Steelers are 30 on the list;
Eventually they'll pay. They must have had good drafts in the 6-10 years before.
I know they've had a lot of misses recently in the drafts.
The one notable difference is the Steelers will pay a Guard and Center big money and they try to retain most of their free agents. The Bengals let those guys go and hoped that draft picks would produce.
Thus we're bad. They're good.
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(11-21-2017, 05:36 PM)Benton Wrote: I'm guessing because, largely, they're pretty balanced. The list seems slanted towards teams that have picked up a few explosive receivers or pass rushers in a short period. Which is great, but — just like we've done in a couple drafts during the Marvin years — not the norm. Lineman, who most people would probably agree are where good teams are built, didn't start popping up until the bottom third of the guy's ranking.
So what really good players have we drafted over the last 5 years? Please clarify how this list is wrong on us being ranked 26.
And the list was from August so this past years class doesn't count.
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Even though early Ross and Mixon have underwhelmed this year is going to turn into a homerun. Lawson Willis Glasgow potentially Evans will contribute for years too come we will know more regarding Mixon and Ross year 2. We needed it after pathetic 2016 draft.
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(11-21-2017, 06:00 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: The PFF ratings are nothing like the Madden rankings. They are comparable to wins above replacement in baseball. They look at actual production.
They bridge the gap between statements like: We draft great because we have 38 drafted guys on the roster! and Actual production of those guys.
When you look at actual production on the field of draft picks over the last 5 years...we're 26th. BEHIND Cleveland.
Does anyone argue this? Eifert is our best player drafted over the past 5 years. Eifert. He's basically missed the equivalent of 2 seasons.
Yeah, because a big chunk of that production has been from guys drafted before then.
you're comparing impact players and plug in starters that lifted down teams/rebuilding teams like the Cowboys and GB to teams that have't changed positions as much in five years. Look at the playmakers who play the biggest chunks — Geno, Burfict, AD, AJ, Dunlap, MJ, Jones, etc — they're 7+ years guys. Even many of the situational/depth/rotation guys — Huber, LaFell, VRey, Winston, A Smith — are getting near double digits.
We've had a couple horrific drafts, but looking at the last five years as a snapshot works if your team has been rebuilding. Ours hasn't, they've been trying to patch up. A list like this might be worth looking at in a few years, but it's really slanted in favor of teams that were in rough shape several years ago and recently had picks pay dividends.
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(11-21-2017, 06:05 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: So what really good players have we drafted over the last 5 years? Please clarify how this list is wrong on us being ranked 26.
And the list was from August so this past years class doesn't count.
How many guys drafted in the last five years have been starters? We had two notable ones and they stunk. That doesn't erase a decade of decent drafts.
The entire premise here is based off of Eifert being injury prone, and our two tackles being bad, while ignoring that we've hit a lot more draft picks than we totally whiffed.
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(11-21-2017, 03:09 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: This tends to back my assertion that we've been living off of 2 great classes (Green, Dalton, Boling and Dunlap, Atkins)...with most of our recent drafts being Below Average.
If you recall the front office was getting all sorts of love for their drafting, and how they did it with a much smaller staff than most. In retrospect, it would seem there was more luck than skill involved.
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I was trying to make sense of this list when I realized -- as OP notes -- it was from August ... would be a little different now. Eagles (Wentz), Texans (Watson), and Ram (Goff) would all be higher based on their performances this year. Jags with Fournette, Chiefs with Hunt, Saints with Kamara, etc.
Still, the fact that Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Zeke Elliott, Jordan Howard aren't mentioned (except in a picture caption for Zeke) blows my mind, as they all had past successes. Deandre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Zach Ertz, Mariota, Winston ... lots of good draft picks left off the list. And who would you rather have -- the Dolphins' 9th-ranked group of Tannehill (injured), Parker (bust), Landry (mediocre), and the 4th round pick they got for Ajayi; or the Steelers' 30th ranked tandem of Bell and DeCastro (both All Pros and potential HOFers)? The fact that this list is already obsolete shows you how quickly things can change in this league.
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Outside the '15 draft, they haven't been terrible. Not great, but not terrible.
'12 they hit on 5 picks; Dre, Z, Sanu, Mo Jones, Iloka highlight this draft.
'13 they hit on roughly 4-5 picks; Eifert, Gio, and to a lesser extent, Shawn Williams, Rex.
'14 they hit on roughly 4 picks; Dennard, Hill, Blodine, AJ, and to a lesser extent Clarke.
'15 they totally whiffed outside backup players Kroft, Uzomah, and Shaw.
'16 They hit on roughly 2 players; WJIII & Boyd, and to a lesser extent Vigil, Core, and Fej
'17 seems to hit on 2-3 players, but of course to early to really tell; Mixon, Lawson, Willis all seem to have good promise.
So the '15 and '16 draft derailed alot of the momentum we had going post AD & AJ era.
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(11-21-2017, 07:20 PM)Benton Wrote: How many guys drafted in the last five years have been starters? We had two notable ones and they stunk. That doesn't erase a decade of decent drafts.
The entire premise here is based off of Eifert being injury prone, and our two tackles being bad, while ignoring that we've hit a lot more draft picks than we totally whiffed.
Pretty much. A few picks they banked to be starters cost them dearly. Had they admitted they were wrong and planned accordingly, who knows were we'd be now. Seems like the sweet spot for this team to be competitive is hitting on around 4-5 starters a draft. That seems like a pretty high mark IMO
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(11-21-2017, 04:00 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: This seems like common sense, so I'm not sure why anyone would argue with you over it. This team has fallen apart for a reason. We let a lot of talented players walk, relied 100% on the draft to replace them, and failed miserably. Our drafts have let us down lately. That's why we're losing.
Love you, man, but I couldn't disagree more. This is 100% on the current coaching staff. When the talented coaches left our roster, our team failed. With just good coaches, this team is a perennial playoff team. With great coaching, they could contend for a title. Yep, even with Ogbuehi.
It isn't the players that have left. It is the coaches that left and left us with Marv....he sucks ass big time.
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(11-21-2017, 05:58 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Precisely. That's been my contention. Free agency ripped us apart the past 2 seasons and the incoming draft picks haven't produced at an equal level.
We start some 9 guys that grade out as Poor at their position by PFF. That isn't all coaching.
We're the 26th ranked drafting team by PFF over the last 5 years in actual player production.
I actually believe it is. Look at how some of those SAME PLAYERS ranked with Hue as OC. Running a predictable high school schematic on offense and a panty-waste drop off coverage on defense wouldn't be successful with the Greatest Show on Turf roster or the 85 Bears on defense.
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