Will Technology Destroy Logistics Companies?

[BFritz21]

I've been worried for a long time about technology destroying jobs and putting a lot of people out of business, and a good friend of mine owns a logistics company in the Greater Cincinnati area (Lighthouse Transportation Services), and I've been wondering if it's a sustainable business forever or if technology will destroy it.

Companies need goods and whatever shipped, so they contact Lighthouse and my friend (and the people that work for him) set it up, and they're doing very well, but how long before a company just pulls out a cell phone, goes into an ap, types in "I need this delivered from here to here," and it goes out to all truckers who can just click "ok" and they have the job?

I guess one could argue that you can't just trust a truck driver on an ap when he could actually be finishing one delivery, get delayed, and not even get to the one that he agreed to on the ap for a day or even a few hours (which can be costly), or that the entire process is just quicker and cleaner with a logistic company, but will it always be that way?

I guess it's more cost-efficient than going through the process of hiring and paying people more than the logistics company to do it.

Will logistic companies be around forever?

[Au165]

I think you are thinking small picture. The trucks themselves are going to be driver less in the next 10-15 years, which is the far bigger impact on jobs. With that in mind the brokering and logistics will go to a web based setup that can give you real time info on status and help manage expectations as well as better plan trips.

The reality is technology will get rid of some jobs completely, but create new jobs elsewhere. All of those driver less trucks will probably require a whole new generation of mechanics versed in new skills. The websites and servers that will manage the logistics will need built and maintained, probably with new types of adaptive AI to develop better and more cost effective ways to structure routes and trips.

[jfkbengals]

(12-19-2017, 10:40 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I've been worried for a long time about technology destroying jobs and putting a lot of people out of business, and a good friend of mine owns a logistics company in the Greater Cincinnati area (Lighthouse Transportation Services), and I've been wondering if it's a sustainable business forever or if technology will destroy it.

Companies need goods and whatever shipped, so they contact Lighthouse and my friend (and the people that work for him) set it up, and they're doing very well, but how long before a company just pulls out a cell phone, goes into an ap, types in "I need this delivered from here to here," and it goes out to all truckers who can just click "ok" and they have the job?

I guess one could argue that you can't just trust a truck driver on an ap when he could actually be finishing one delivery, get delayed, and not even get to the one that he agreed to on the ap for a day or even a few hours (which can be costly), or that the entire process is just quicker and cleaner with a logistic company, but will it always be that way?

I guess it's more cost-efficient than going through the process of hiring and paying people more than the logistics company to do it.

Will logistic companies be around forever?

What you're proposing can only be done with LTL services. 

Oversized loads are a completely different animal.

For example, my company manufactures industrial material handling equipment.  We have a crane heading to Arizona that, after disassembly, will require 5 loads.  4 of the loads will only need 5 days to get there, even though 2 of them will be roughly 100 feet in length each.  The trolley is both oversize and overweight, requiring 14 days to make the journey.  Local restrictions and regulations along the way require different things along the way.  Permits are required everywhere, but some places will have prohibitions on the route or times of travel.  Some places will require police escort.

Those types of things will never be able to be automated.  They need the human outreach to coordinate among all of the localities, etc.

[HarleyDog]

As someone who has been a driver, broker, distribution manager and operations manager in transportation and logistics for 28yrs, I can tell you that someday typical brokers will be history. They are overpaid for the service they provide and a simple web based program that links costumers directly to the carriers would be economically advantageous.

As for the driverless trucks? Well, not sure that can be as easily achieved as dreamed or we would have had unmanned locomotives years ago. In my lifetime, there will always be a need to have that truck manned even if it’s self driven.

[Au165]

(12-20-2017, 11:48 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: As for the driverless trucks? Well, not sure that can be as easily achieved as dreamed or we would have had unmanned locomotives years ago. In my lifetime, there will always be a need to have that truck manned even if it’s self driven.

There are already unmanned locomotives in Australia with a belief they will be in the states in 5 or so years. Part of the issues is regulations often times lag behind innovation, and things like unions can also slow the adoption of new technologies. Not sure how old you are, but there are startups already that are moving the direction of making the "driver" somewhat obsolete. For instance one is turning the trucks into robots that drive the highway's themselves then a guy in a control room drives them when they get off the freeway. This allows one guy to drive up to 30 trucks during an 8 hour shift. 

When it comes to technology using words like "always" and "never" aren't good ideas because technology moves fast, and if there is a reason to do it people will find ways to do it. Automation of transportation is a big deal as the amount of deaths an injuries related to human error are too high to ignore. They are already testing self driving buses in areas around the U.S. that have no human involvement. 

[Au165]

(12-20-2017, 11:13 PM)jfkbengals Wrote: What you're proposing can only be done with LTL services. 

Oversized loads are a completely different animal.

For example, my company manufactures industrial material handling equipment.  We have a crane heading to Arizona that, after disassembly, will require 5 loads.  4 of the loads will only need 5 days to get there, even though 2 of them will be roughly 100 feet in length each.  The trolley is both oversize and overweight, requiring 14 days to make the journey.  Local restrictions and regulations along the way require different things along the way.  Permits are required everywhere, but some places will have prohibitions on the route or times of travel.  Some places will require police escort.

Those types of things will never be able to be automated.  They need the human outreach to coordinate among all of the localities, etc.

Ba careful using the word "never", if there is a need it can be programmed. Everything you mentioned are just operator's that will trigger further actions with it's own subset of rules to determine proper handling of situations.

[Interceptor]

I think so. Damn.

[JustWinBaby]

It's going to be really interesting to see how this all plays out. Everyone who has ever said "this time it's different" has been wrong. But now it seems inevitable.

Now, clearly, jobs have been lost to automation. But the PC killed millions of accounting and finance jobs, but people just started doing more valued-added activities as opposed to adding numbers on a ledger.


When talking logistics companies, specifically....I think they will be even more valuable as options increase and become more complicated. The trucker may be screwed, but coordinating all that will be that much more important (to say nothing of optimizing delivery, with shorter lead times and troubleshooting).

To me the real threat is when AI starts replacing lower/mid-level management. Then I no longer need a logistics coordinator.

[XenoMorph]

(12-19-2017, 10:40 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I've been worried for a long time about technology destroying jobs and putting a lot of people out of business, and a good friend of mine owns a logistics company in the Greater Cincinnati area (Lighthouse Transportation Services), and I've been wondering if it's a sustainable business forever or if technology will destroy it.

Companies need goods and whatever shipped, so they contact Lighthouse and my friend (and the people that work for him) set it up, and they're doing very well, but how long before a company just pulls out a cell phone, goes into an ap, types in "I need this delivered from here to here," and it goes out to all truckers who can just click "ok" and they have the job?

I guess one could argue that you can't just trust a truck driver on an ap when he could actually be finishing one delivery, get delayed, and not even get to the one that he agreed to on the ap for a day or even a few hours (which can be costly), or that the entire process is just quicker and cleaner with a logistic company, but will it always be that way?

I guess it's more cost-efficient than going through the process of hiring and paying people more than the logistics company to do it.

Will logistic companies be around forever?

Why are you worried?
Brad its the way the world works  when there is a demand for a service someone will fill that demand until there is no longer a demand for that service because the demand is now for a different service.  Now others will fill those demands.. For every job lost another is created.

[grampahol]

Just remember that no matter how old you are you've never been closer than you are this very moment of dying from old age. 5 minutes ago you were 5 minutes younger. In 5 minutes you'll be 5 minutes closer to the day they either bury you, burn you or toss you in the ocean. 

[BFritz21]

(12-22-2017, 11:14 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: Why are you worried?
Brad its the way the world works  when there is a demand for a service someone will fill that demand until there is no longer a demand for that service because the demand is now for a different service.  Now others will fill those demands.. For every job lost another is created.

Because I've been wondering lately about our country and just how things will turn out.

I have thoughts like this that make me think.

It's just how my brain works.  I think about problems and look for solutions sometimes.

[Sabretooth]

(12-23-2017, 04:08 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: Because I've been wondering lately about our country and just how things will turn out.

I have thoughts like this that make me think.

It's just how my brain works.  I think about problems and look for solutions sometimes.

The birth of your nephew possibly accelerated your concern about the future. A lot of folks want the planet to be in great shape for following generations.
However problems we have no control over will just worry us into a frazzle, if given too much thought (being miserable ).
Don't worry be happy.
Let it go.

[HarleyDog]

(12-22-2017, 02:29 AM)JustWinBaby Wrote: To me the real threat is when AI starts replacing lower/mid-level management.  Then I no longer need a logistics coordinator.

Very true. AI learns from its mistakes also. I seen some pretty interesting stuff regarding AI. Not scary, but encouraging IMO. As some fear drivers may not be needed in the future, although I can't realistically see it happening in my lifetime, it would be a plus. Although, the shock to the economy of now unskilled workers would be difficult on the economy. Drivers are a good asset today but many have become very needy and demanding. In some ways that's understood because some have been abused by the industry for so long. However, the new ELD mandate which took effect 12-18 has removed the capabilities of log book falsification and has leveled the playing field. You no longer will have "super drivers." You know, the ones that make miracles happen? Basically because they are no longer able to do so. 

The ELD mandate makes the self driving truck all the more enticing to owners of larger companies. Having a successful fleet of these would be like having team drivers in every truck. On paper, that's going to be huge to revenue generation. 

[SunsetBengal]

(12-23-2017, 10:06 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: Very true. AI learns from its mistakes also. I seen some pretty interesting stuff regarding AI. Not scary, but encouraging IMO. As some fear drivers may not be needed in the future, although I can't realistically see it happening in my lifetime, it would be a plus. Although, the shock to the economy of now unskilled workers would be difficult on the economy. Drivers are a good asset today but many have become very needy and demanding. In some ways that's understood because some have been abused by the industry for so long. However, the new ELD mandate which took effect 12-18 has removed the capabilities of log book falsification and has leveled the playing field. You no longer will have "super drivers." You know, the ones that make miracles happen? Basically because they are no longer able to do so. 

The ELD mandate makes the self driving truck all the more enticing to owners of larger companies. Having a successful fleet of these would be like having team drivers in every truck. On paper, that's going to be huge to revenue generation. 

I'll bet that the amphetamine dealers are crying about that..  

Not to just come off as a smartass, my Father in Law is a driver. He works for Linde, and hauls fuels and such. I fully understand that the scrutiny that a modern driver is put under, compared to the lore of days gone by. He's a lifer, and also teaches new drivers the ropes. He was explaining that most, even if they come from fairly reputable companies, can't or won't work for them. Between the ELD and the cab cam, most refuse to do it, despite the great pay.

[HarleyDog]

(12-23-2017, 10:07 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I'll bet that the amphetamine dealers are crying about that..  

Not to just come off as a smartass, my Father in Law is a driver. He works for Linde, and hauls fuels and such. I fully understand that the scrutiny that a modern driver is put under, compared to the lore of days gone by. He's a lifer, and also teaches new drivers the ropes. He was explaining that most, even if they come from fairly reputable companies, can't or won't work for them. Between the ELD and the cab cam, most refuse to do it, despite the great pay.

When I worked for my previous company up until a few months ago, I managed 2 plant distribution operations in Ohio and Mississippi. When we deployed the drive cam in trucks, about 20% quite because of big brother syndrome. ELDs were already in place and since there was not a government mandate, they didn’t seem to care. Just before I left, we were testing some new technologies for drive safety. We had purchased several trucks with lane departure warning systems and also another camera which mounted to the dashboard and although it didn’t record anything, it monitored the drivers face for hours.

After several hours of driving, if the camera noticed an extended blink period, an increase in winks, etc. it would notify me that said driver was at risk of falling asleep soon. I never received a call because we were not completely operational with it yet upon my departure. However I’m sure they will, or have lost some drivers over that as well. Our company was safety heavy. We didn’t allow use of a cell phone even with a headset. Zero tolerance. Can’t even count the number of drivers I had to terminate because they hit a pothole or hit brake a little hard, which triggered dash cam and recorded them talking on phone.

I’ve tried to ease drivers fears about new technologies, but when the policies that go with it lead to termination around every corner, they tend to focus more on that than they do driving, which scares me. I’ve tried to explain to the company hierarchy that too much is a distraction and can actually make a driver dangerous when he/she is worried about everything else but driving, but it fell on deaf ears.