Full offseason mock with FA

[pledgi]

I'm sure this is very unlikely in terms of the way in which the Bengals operate, but I think this is the quickest fix to get us into the playoffs etc.

Re-sign:
Andre Smith RT 2 years at $6 million per year.
Kevin Huber P at 4 years for $1.5 million per year
Chris Smith DE at 2 years for $1 million per.
Tyler Eifert TE at 1 year $3 million (prove it deal)

Tender A.J. McCarron at 2nd round level (Good bet the Browns pick him up at the tardy paperwork discount)

Cut:
Adam Jones CB -$6 million against cap
T.J. Johnson C -$1.7 million against cap


Don't re-sign:
Kevin Minter LB
Russell Bodine C
Jeremy Hill RB
Cedric Peerman RB
Pat Sims DT

net $38.5 million in cap space

Sign:
Andrew Norwell G Panthers 5 years $9 million/year
Nate Solder T Patriots 4 years $10.5 million/year
Eric Reid S 49ers 4 years $5 million/year
Nigel Bradham LB Eagles 4 years $8 million/year



Draft:
Trade back in first to pick up additional 2nd round pick plus 2nd from Browns. Traded back once more for an extra 3rd.

22: R1P22
G BILLY PRICE
OHIO STATE
33: R2P1
LB MALIK JEFFERSON
TEXAS
46: R2P14
CB JAIRE ALEXANDER (Josh Jackson CB Iowa was also an option here)
LOUISVILLE
56: R2P24
LB TREMAINE EDMUNDS
VIRGINIA TECH
85: R3P21
TE TROY FUMAGALLI
WISCONSIN
88: R3P24
C FRANK RAGNOW
ARKANSAS
100: R3P36
T JAMARCO JAMES
OHIO STATE
114: R4P12
CB ISAIAH OLIVER
COLORADO
153: R5P14
RB JAYLEN SAMUELS
NORTH CAROLINA STATE
R6P12
WR DANTE PETTIS
Washington
R7P12
K DANIEL CARLSON
AUBURN

[*ochocincos*]

(01-18-2018, 06:00 AM)pledgi Wrote: I'm sure this is very unlikely in terms of the way in which the Bengals operate, but I think this is the quickest fix to get us into the playoffs etc.

Re-sign:
Andre Smith RT  2 years at $6 million per year.  
Kevin Huber P at 4 years for $1.5 million per year
Chris Smith DE at 2 years for $1 million per.
Tyler Eifert TE at 1 year $3 million (prove it deal)

Tender A.J. McCarron at 2nd round level  (Good bet the Browns pick him up at the tardy paperwork discount)

Cut:
Adam Jones CB  -$6 million against cap
T.J. Johnson C  -$1.7 million against cap


Don't re-sign:
Kevin Minter LB
Russell Bodine C
Jeremy Hill RB
Cedric Peerman RB
Pat Sims DT

net $38.5 million in cap space

Sign:
Andrew Norwell G Panthers 5 years $9 million/year
Nate Solder T Patriots 4 years $10.5 million/year
Eric Reid S 49ers  4 years $5 million/year
Nigel Bradham LB Eagles 4 years $8 million/year



Draft:
Trade back in first to pick up additional 2nd round pick plus 2nd from Browns.  Traded back once more for an extra 3rd.  

22: R1P22  
G BILLY PRICE
OHIO STATE
33: R2P1
LB MALIK JEFFERSON
TEXAS
46: R2P14  
CB JAIRE ALEXANDER   (Josh Jackson CB Iowa was also an option here)
LOUISVILLE
56: R2P24  
LB TREMAINE EDMUNDS
VIRGINIA TECH
85: R3P21  
TE TROY FUMAGALLI
WISCONSIN
88: R3P24  
C FRANK RAGNOW
ARKANSAS
100: R3P36  
T JAMARCO JAMES
OHIO STATE
114: R4P12  
CB ISAIAH OLIVER
COLORADO
153: R5P14
RB JAYLEN SAMUELS
NORTH CAROLINA STATE
R6P12
WR DANTE PETTIS  
Washington
R7P12
K DANIEL CARLSON
AUBURN

I see a lot of people suggest trade scenarios every year, but I often see those trades not make sense.
You mention trading back to 22, but that's the Seahawks Bills' second first-round pick. Who would they be trading up to get? And why?
And who in the third is trading earlier in that round, for whom, and why?

[J24]

(01-18-2018, 01:18 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I see a lot of people suggest trade scenarios every year, but I often see those trades not make sense.
You mention trading back to 22, but that's the Seahawks' pick. Who would they be trading up to get? And why?
And who in the third is trading earlier in that round, for whom, and why?

Harrison from Alabama or Jackson from Iowa could make them trade up.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-18-2018, 03:04 PM)Jakeypoo Wrote: Harrison from Alabama or Jackson from Iowa could make them trade up.

I made a mistake. 22 is actually Buffalo (from Chiefs). Seahawks are 18.
I actually think Bills are more likely to trade up over Seattle, and I think Bills would be targeting an offensive player (likely QB that falls?).
QB would make a ton of sense too for Buffalo because Washington and Arizona likely will be looking at a QB and maybe even the Chargers or Baltimore if they wanted to groom a QB for 1-2 years behind their current starters that are aging (Rivers) or declining (Baltimore).

[J24]

(01-18-2018, 03:53 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I made a mistake. 22 is actually Buffalo (from Chiefs). Seahawks are 18.
I actually think Bills are more likely to trade up over Seattle, and I think Bills would be targeting an offensive player (likely QB that falls?).
QB would make a ton of sense too for Buffalo because Washington and Arizona likely will be looking at a QB and maybe even the Chargers or Baltimore if they wanted to groom a QB for 1-2 years behind their current starters that are aging (Rivers) or declining (Baltimore).

Agreed but if they do trade up wouldn't we get  the other first Rd pick. I only say that because KC and the Texans gave up a first Rd pick last year to move up for a QB

[*ochocincos*]

(01-18-2018, 04:29 PM)Jakeypoo Wrote: Agreed but if they do trade up wouldn't we get  the other first Rd pick. I only say that because KC and the Texans gave up a first Rd pick last year to move up for a QB

Based on trade value charts, the Bills would have to give up a first and second to go from 21/22 to 12. If they were that desperate, they'd give even more. In fact, I think the Bills are in a great spot having two back-to-back first-round picks. They also have the #53 and #56 pick too in the second round. Trade up one of the firsts and one of those seconds to get the QB you like while still having yet another first and second to bolster your team.

[Jpoore]

U have 3 first round locks in the second. Plus no way in hell Edmunds falls that far.

[J24]

(01-18-2018, 04:58 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Based on trade value charts, the Bills would have to give up a first and second to go from 21/22 to 12. If they were that desperate, they'd give even more. In fact, I think the Bills are in a great spot having two back-to-back first-round picks. They also have the #53 and #56 pick too in the second round. Trade up one of the firsts and one of those seconds to get the QB you like while still having yet another first and second to bolster your team.

Obviously we would switch spots from 12 to 21. But what I am saying is wouldn't it be 12 for 21 and 22? I only say that because KC gave up a first in this draft to move up last year and Houston did the same thing.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-18-2018, 07:19 PM)Jakeypoo Wrote: Obviously we would switch spots from 12 to 21. But what I am saying is wouldn't it be 12 for 21 and 22? I only say that because KC gave up a first in this draft to move up last year and Houston did the same thing.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

Chiefs traded #27 for #10 last year (650 point differential) along with their third rounder (91 overall - 136 more points).
1300 - (650+136) = 514 "points" still missing

They gave up their 2018 first-rounder too because that's typically treated like equivalent value of an early-second round pick since it's a year later.

In the scenario we are talking about between CIN and BUF this year, you're talking moving up from 21/22 to 12, so the point differential is only ~400 points, not 650.
BUF could trade #21 (800 pts) and #53 (370 pts) and it would be very fair for #12 overall.

If BUF didn't want to give up one of their 2nd rounders, they'd likely have to bite the bullet and give up a future 1st rounder instead. But if I'm BUF, I don't do that since I have two firsts and two seconds this year.

EDIT - If BUF gave up 21 AND 22 in this upcoming draft for #12 overall, that's "overpaying" by a decent amount (1200 vs 1580).

[J24]

(01-18-2018, 07:36 PM)ochocincos Wrote: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

Chiefs traded #27 for #10 last year (650 point differential) along with their third rounder (91 overall - 136 more points).
1300 - (650+136) = 514 "points" still missing

They gave up their 2018 first-rounder too because that's typically treated like equivalent value of an early-second round pick since it's a year later.

In the scenario we are talking about between CIN and BUF this year, you're talking moving up from 21/22 to 12, so the point differential is only ~400 points, not 650.
BUF could trade #21 (800 pts) and #53 (370 pts) and it would be very fair for #12 overall.

If BUF didn't want to give up one of their 2nd rounders, they'd likely have to bite the bullet and give up a future 1st rounder instead. But if I'm BUF, I don't do that since I have two firsts and two seconds this year.

EDIT - If BUF gave up 21 AND 22 in this upcoming draft for #12 overall, that's "overpaying" by a decent amount (1200 vs 1580).

Understood but knowing how the Bengals can be ruthless in trade negotiations and the fact like you said the QB market could be at it's most desperate at that time. I would think you could pull that deal off.

[pledgi]

(01-18-2018, 06:39 PM)Jpoore Wrote: U have 3 first round locks in the second. Plus no way in hell Edmunds falls that far.

You quote a lot of players being first round locks on this board.  You do know there are only 32 picks in the first round right?  I've seen several of these players fall in various simulations and all are not mocked consistently in the first.  I'm guessing at least 5 quarterbacks go in the first this year which could make some players fall.  Also there are a number of players that are high on some teams' boards and low on others.  Every year players which are projected in the first fall to the second, third, or farther.  I seem to remember a lot of people had Andrew Billings pegged as a first round pick and where did he end up?  This is a simulation based on a variety of big boards from various sites.  

[*Go Cards*]

(01-18-2018, 06:00 AM)pledgi Wrote: I'm sure this is very unlikely in terms of the way in which the Bengals operate, but I think this is the quickest fix to get us into the playoffs etc.

Re-sign:
Andre Smith RT  2 years at $6 million per year.  
Kevin Huber P at 4 years for $1.5 million per year
Chris Smith DE at 2 years for $1 million per.
Tyler Eifert TE at 1 year $3 million (prove it deal)

Tender A.J. McCarron at 2nd round level  (Good bet the Browns pick him up at the tardy paperwork discount)

Cut:
Adam Jones CB  -$6 million against cap
T.J. Johnson C  -$1.7 million against cap


Don't re-sign:
Kevin Minter LB
Russell Bodine C
Jeremy Hill RB
Cedric Peerman RB
Pat Sims DT

net $38.5 million in cap space

Sign:
Andrew Norwell G Panthers 5 years $9 million/year
Nate Solder T Patriots 4 years $10.5 million/year
Eric Reid S 49ers  4 years $5 million/year
Nigel Bradham LB Eagles 4 years $8 million/year



Draft:
Trade back in first to pick up additional 2nd round pick plus 2nd from Browns.  Traded back once more for an extra 3rd.  

22: R1P22  
G BILLY PRICE
OHIO STATE
33: R2P1
LB MALIK JEFFERSON
TEXAS
46: R2P14  
CB JAIRE ALEXANDER   (Josh Jackson CB Iowa was also an option here)
LOUISVILLE
56: R2P24  
LB TREMAINE EDMUNDS
VIRGINIA TECH
85: R3P21  
TE TROY FUMAGALLI
WISCONSIN
88: R3P24  
C FRANK RAGNOW
ARKANSAS
100: R3P36  
T JAMARCO JAMES
OHIO STATE
114: R4P12  
CB ISAIAH OLIVER
COLORADO
153: R5P14
RB JAYLEN SAMUELS
NORTH CAROLINA STATE
R6P12
WR DANTE PETTIS  
Washington
R7P12
K DANIEL CARLSON
AUBURN

Jaire Alexander in Bengals stripes sounds good to me

[Jpoore]

(01-19-2018, 02:01 AM)pledgi Wrote: You quote a lot of players being first round locks on this board.  You do know there are only 32 picks in the first round right?  I've seen several of these players fall in various simulations and all are not mocked consistently in the first.  I'm guessing at least 5 quarterbacks go in the first this year which could make some players fall.  Also there are a number of players that are high on some teams' boards and low on others.  Every year players which are projected in the first fall to the second, third, or farther.  I seem to remember a lot of people had Andrew Billings pegged as a first round pick and where did he end up?  This is a simulation based on a variety of big boards from various sites.  

I mean Billings had the knee issue and was looked at as a 2 down player. But I see what ur getting at. Of all of them the only one I could see making it out if the first due to injury is Alexander. Josh Jackson is easily the best cb in this class. He won't make it out of the first. And edmunds was just mocked to us at 12 and major debate if he or Smith is best lb.

[*Synric*]

(01-18-2018, 06:00 AM)pledgi Wrote: I'm sure this is very unlikely in terms of the way in which the Bengals operate, but I think this is the quickest fix to get us into the playoffs etc.

Re-sign:
Andre Smith RT  2 years at $6 million per year.  
Kevin Huber P at 4 years for $1.5 million per year
Chris Smith DE at 2 years for $1 million per.
Tyler Eifert TE at 1 year $3 million (prove it deal)

Tender A.J. McCarron at 2nd round level  (Good bet the Browns pick him up at the tardy paperwork discount)

Cut:
Adam Jones CB  -$6 million against cap
T.J. Johnson C  -$1.7 million against cap


Don't re-sign:
Kevin Minter LB
Russell Bodine C
Jeremy Hill RB
Cedric Peerman RB
Pat Sims DT

net $38.5 million in cap space

Sign:
Andrew Norwell G Panthers 5 years $9 million/year
Nate Solder T Patriots 4 years $10.5 million/year
Eric Reid S 49ers  4 years $5 million/year
Nigel Bradham LB Eagles 4 years $8 million/year



Draft:
Trade back in first to pick up additional 2nd round pick plus 2nd from Browns.  Traded back once more for an extra 3rd.  

22: R1P22  
G BILLY PRICE
OHIO STATE
33: R2P1
LB MALIK JEFFERSON
TEXAS
46: R2P14  
CB JAIRE ALEXANDER   (Josh Jackson CB Iowa was also an option here)
LOUISVILLE
56: R2P24  
LB TREMAINE EDMUNDS
VIRGINIA TECH
85: R3P21  
TE TROY FUMAGALLI
WISCONSIN
88: R3P24  
C FRANK RAGNOW
ARKANSAS
100: R3P36  
T JAMARCO JAMES
OHIO STATE
114: R4P12  
CB ISAIAH OLIVER
COLORADO
153: R5P14
RB JAYLEN SAMUELS
NORTH CAROLINA STATE
R6P12
WR DANTE PETTIS  
Washington
R7P12
K DANIEL CARLSON
AUBURN

You fixed the offensive line in free agency but didnt extend Geno or Dunlap. You're allowing both to test free agency? 

[pledgi]

(01-19-2018, 03:42 AM)Synric Wrote: You fixed the offensive line in free agency but didnt extend Geno or Dunlap. You're allowing both to test free agency? 

Sorry I'd extend Geno, but I think I'd take my chances on Dunlap.  There's still money to extend Geno even with this FA scenario.  We could afford to give him a 2-3 million dollar raise without any problem.  

[pledgi]

(01-19-2018, 02:41 AM)Jpoore Wrote: I mean Billings had the knee issue and was looked at as a 2 down player. But I see what ur getting at. Of all of them the only one I could see making it out if the first due to injury is Alexander. Josh Jackson is easily the best cb in this class. He won't make it out of the first. And edmunds was just mocked to us at 12 and major debate if he or Smith is best lb.

Okay, take Edmunds out and replace him with Jewell or Van Der Tesch or whatever his name is from Boise St.  Is that realistic enough for you?  It does seem that Edmunds is shooting up the boards.  I guess my point is that this draft sets up nicely for Bengals needs with the exception of offensive tackle.  

[*Synric*]

(01-19-2018, 03:57 AM)pledgi Wrote: Sorry I'd extend Geno, but I think I'd take my chances on Dunlap.  There's still money to extend Geno even with this FA scenario.  We could afford to give him a 2-3 million dollar raise without any problem.  

I believe Geno is gonna get alot more than that but let's say that's it...

You also forgot it will take 8ish mil to pay the rookies.

[treee]

Having less than ~15 mil in cap space rolling forward? Unlikely

[SunsetBengal]

We would be lucky to sign ONE upper tier OL, let alone TWO. OP seems to be forgetting that the team will do their level best to extend players already on the roster, before looking at much in Free Agency.

[Jpoore]

(01-19-2018, 04:02 AM)pledgi Wrote: Okay, take Edmunds out and replace him with Jewell or Van Der Tesch or whatever his name is from Boise St.  Is that realistic enough for you?  It does seem that Edmunds is shooting up the boards.  I guess my point is that this draft sets up nicely for Bengals needs with the exception of offensive tackle.  

I freaking love van der tesch. I think Edmunds ends up being a top 10 pick when all is said and done, possibly top 5. And I honestly don't want ot this year except maybe a project tackle late. Next year is super deep.