Draft/FA positional value?

[Hoofhearted]

Stumbled across this and thought it would be helpful to see how the Bengals seem to value certain positions. It's on par with how many other teams view those same positions. With that being said, it looks like Tackle is a very high probability than Guard or Center, which I agree with 100%. They'll probably go LB/S before grabbing another guard or center. I fully expect them to do that around round 4. I also fully expect them to sign both Dunlap and Geno.

Round 1: Tackle
Round 2: LB
Round 3: S/CB
Round 4: Center/Guard
Round 5: Center/Guard
Round 6: RB
Round 7: LB


CONTRACT
After the ROOKIE CONTRACT expires what is the Franchise Tag number given to the position (ie QB Brady vs DB Revis vs FB Leach )
SCARCITY / DEMAND
This has more to do with how often this position (as a starter) is let go onto the market than draft. For example, the last time a "decent" starter became a free agent at QB was Drew Brees. The last time a "decent" starter at DT became available was Ndamukong Suh.
DURABILITY
How many games does the average starter of this position play in a 16 game season?
EFFECTIVENESS
This is more of a sub-component of durability. It’s based on teams win percentage if a player at a certain position goes down.

[*Go Cards*]

Agree with this on a whole but think it must be adjusted to accommodate needs as well.

If a team is loaded everywhere except has a weak interior OL then believe it becomes higher ranked than last on list.

Not saying that should be Bengals strategy because Tackle DL, LB looks to be needs as well.

[Hoofhearted]

(02-15-2018, 02:48 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Agree with this on a whole but think it must be adjusted to accommodate needs as well.

If a team is loaded everywhere except has a weak interior OL then believe it becomes higher ranked than last on list.

Not saying that should be Bengals strategy because Tackle DL, LB looks to be needs as well.

Yeah...but also think that also plays into "scarcity". If we can get an average players easier at Guard/Center then DT, LB, etc...then we should do that in FA than draft. Load up on  the more scarce/valuable position in the draft 

[*psychdoctor*]

Some scouts view Nelson as one of the top players in the draft even though he is a guard. So if Nelson is there at 12, and guard is a position of need for the Bengals, they should grab him.

[J24]

How is 3T below nose tackle? The best defensive players are all 3T.

[Hoofhearted]

(02-15-2018, 03:48 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: Some scouts view Nelson as one of the top players in the draft even though he is a guard.  So if Nelson is there at 12, and guard is a position of need for the Bengals, they should grab him.

But would it provide more value than getting a good tackle or LB? Paying a guard #12 vs paying a tackle #12 doesn't make sense from a "value" prospective.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-15-2018, 04:13 PM)Jakeypoo Wrote: How is 3T below nose tackle? The best defensive players are all 3T.

This was my take too.
In a 4-3, or at least in the scheme the Bengals do for 4-3, 3T is far more important than NT.
I only see a NT being so high for 3-4 teams.
Also, FS should be higher than SS IIRC.

[Hoofhearted]

(02-15-2018, 04:25 PM)ochocincos Wrote: This was my take too.
In a 4-3, or at least in the scheme the Bengals do for 4-3, 3T is far more important than NT.
I only see a NT being so high for 3-4 teams.
Also, FS should be higher than SS IIRC.

The 0 tech covers both a gaps while 3 is just b gap. So 0 is harder than 3

[Hoofhearted]

(02-15-2018, 04:25 PM)ochocincos Wrote: This was my take too.
In a 4-3, or at least in the scheme the Bengals do for 4-3, 3T is far more important than NT.
I only see a NT being so high for 3-4 teams.
Also, FS should be higher than SS IIRC.

Oh yeah you got it my bad didn’t read rest if it

[*Go Cards*]

(02-15-2018, 04:25 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: But would it provide more value than getting a good tackle or LB? Paying a guard #12 vs paying a tackle #12 doesn't make sense from a "value" prospective.

This seems to be the same philosophy we have done for years. 

Not saying that they go interior OL necessarily. 

But without knowing how the Bengals have their players ranked then it is impossible to figure it out. 

They may have a (fill in position) they love as well as one in first round. 

But believe he will be there in 3rd round offering a chance to grab another need that they only like some of the top talent in.  

[Hoofhearted]

(02-15-2018, 04:25 PM)ochocincos Wrote: This was my take too.
In a 4-3, or at least in the scheme the Bengals do for 4-3, 3T is far more important than NT.
I only see a NT being so high for 3-4 teams.
Also, FS should be higher than SS IIRC.

Also have to factor effectiveness when grading. So Geno would be more valuable than most 0s because he’s sooo good at what he does

[*ochocincos*]

(02-15-2018, 04:53 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: Also have to factor effectiveness when grading. So Geno would be more valuable than most 0s because he’s sooo good at what he does

Curious...where did you get your pyramid in the OP?

Also, it doesn't matter whether it's Geno or some other DT. The 3T needs to be a dominant pass rusher for the Bengals' 4-3 scheme to flourish.
Bengals also need to have a WILL that is a dynamic playmaker.
This was mimicked from Tampa's old scheme.

[*ochocincos*]

Here's what I believe to be the tier order for the Bengals scheme.

1 - QB
2 - LT, WR1, outside CBs
3 - 3T, DE1, WILL LB, RB, TE1
4 - DE2, MIKE LB, WR2, FS, SS
5 - OG, C, SAM LB, slot WR, slot CB, NT
6 - Rest

[Hoofhearted]

(02-15-2018, 05:49 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Curious...where did you get your pyramid in the OP?

Also, it doesn't matter whether it's Geno or some other DT. The 3T needs to be a dominant pass rusher for the Bengals' 4-3 scheme to flourish.
Bengals also need to have a WILL that is a dynamic playmaker.
This was mimicked from Tampa's old scheme.

Found it on by searching for draft news. Found it pretty interesting on some positions

[Hoofhearted]

(02-15-2018, 05:49 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Curious...where did you get your pyramid in the OP?

Also, it doesn't matter whether it's Geno or some other DT. The 3T needs to be a dominant pass rusher for the Bengals' 4-3 scheme to flourish.
Bengals also need to have a WILL that is a dynamic playmaker.
This was mimicked from Tampa's old scheme.

But it does. A prime example is Eifert. He’s production while playing is above average or elite. But his durability takes a tremendous hit to his overall value. And the reverse is true for Geno.

I really found it interesting because this is really just a birds eye view of how rosters should be constructed, but can obviously be adjusted to best for your scheme. Some of these positions may fluctuate due to certain packages they may like more than others, etc.

[Hoofhearted]

(02-15-2018, 04:49 PM)Go Cards Wrote: This seems to be the same philosophy we have done for years. 

Not saying that they go interior OL necessarily. 

But without knowing how the Bengals have their players ranked then it is impossible to figure it out. 

They may have a (fill in position) they love as well as one in first round. 

But believe he will be there in 3rd round offering a chance to grab another need that they only like some of the top talent in.  

Yeah, I way I see it that way too. And yeah, they’ve taken interior line before with Z, so it’s possible. But I think they learned their lesson on that honestly. And why I also think they don’t go center first few rounds. That means a) Bodine won’t be resigned, and b) the backup would be making 1.1 million contract to be a backup for few years after resigning Bodine (from all the talk around it at least)

[J24]

My view
1)QB
2.) LT, 3T
3.)#1 Wr, Outside CB, DE
4.)RB, LB , S, Nickel DB, RT, TE
5.) DE, RG, LG, C,CB2, WR 2
6.)The rest

[SunsetBengal]

(02-15-2018, 06:03 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Here's what I believe to be the tier order for the Bengals scheme.

1 - QB
2 - LT, WR1, outside CBs
3 - 3T, DE1, WILL LB, RB
4 - TE1, DE2, MIKE LB, WR2, FS, SS
5 - OG, C, SAM LB, slot WR, slot CB, NT
6 - Rest

Hmm, upon taking a look at what you have there, I might be inclined to suggest a swap.  I would move TE1 up a row, and take WLB down a row.  With both Gresham and then Eifert, they showed that they feel TE1 is valuable to them.  It may seem that WLB is important, with the extension they gave Vontaze, but don't forget he was a UDFA that most teams didn't want to take a chance on, for character concerns.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-16-2018, 01:40 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Hmm, upon taking a look at what you have there, I might be inclined to suggest a swap.  I would move TE1 up a row, and take WLB down a row.  With both Gresham and then Eifert, they showed that they feel TE1 is valuable to them.  It may seem that WLB is important, with the extension they gave Vontaze, but don't forget he was a UDFA that most teams didn't want to take a chance on, for character concerns.

I listed WILL over TE1 because their defensive scheme needs a dominant WILL more than the offensive scheme needs a top-flight receiving TE. But based on draft priority you're likely right for how the team at least views the importance from a draft/$$ perspective overall.

[SunsetBengal]

(02-16-2018, 01:45 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I listed WILL over TE1 because their defensive scheme needs a dominant WILL more than the offensive scheme needs a top-flight receiving TE.

Ok, I can agree with that.  I thought you were stating how the Bengals viewed positional value.