AD better deep ball than u think

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2018, 04:14 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Dalton's long ball stats, being decent for his career, are more a function of AJ bailing him out, than Dalton being a good deep thrower. Nobody in the NFL gets more separation on deep balls than AJ Green. Numerous times during a season, AJ will have 10 yards of separation, and Dalton will overthrow AJ forcing him to have to stretch out for the catch, or he'll under throw him, and hell have to come back and win a jump ball against 3 defensive backs.

To compare Dalton to Brady is clownish and a huge stretch. Look at what Brady did the year he had a talent  in his prime comparable to a prime Green, Moss in 07,  Brady absolutely dominated that season and tore it up. I could imagine Brady with AJ as a wide out. AJ would have 2000 yards and 20 td's . Brady would have a similar year that he had in 07.

The claim that every other QB hits receivers in stride 40 yards downfield is ridiculous.  Just go look at the completion percentages for ALL of them.  Dalton doesn't overthrow or underthrow worse than any other QB.

In '07 Brady's offensive line included

LT Matt Light.. All-Pro '07... Pro Bowl '06, '07, '10
LG Logan Mankins... All-Pro '10... Pro Bowl '07, '09-'13, '15
C  Dan Koppen... Pro Bowl '07

And in addition to Moss he had All-Pro WR Wes Welker with 112 receptions and TE Ben Watson who had averaged 13.1 yards per catch on 49 receptions the year before and would later have huge years for the Saints (74 rec 825 yds) and Browns (68 rec 763yds).

It is silly to claim that all Brady needs is one good WR to put up numbers like he did in '07.  That Patriots offense was like an All Star team.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-07-2018, 04:14 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Dalton's long ball stats, being decent for his career, are more a function of AJ bailing him out, than Dalton being a good deep thrower. Nobody in the NFL gets more separation on deep balls than AJ Green. Numerous times during a season, AJ will have 10 yards of separation, and Dalton will overthrow AJ forcing him to have to stretch out for the catch, or he'll under throw him, and hell have to come back and win a jump ball against 3 defensive backs.

To compare Dalton to Brady is clownish and a huge stretch. Look at what Brady did the year he had a talent  in his prime comparable to a prime Green, Moss in 07,  Brady absolutely dominated that season and tore it up. I could imagine Brady with AJ as a wide out. AJ would have 2000 yards and 20 td's . Brady would have a similar year that he had in 07.

The stats are irrefutable facts. This post is nothing but salty opinion. If you're going to call me out as clownish, at least dispute my facts with some facts of your own. Gronk has been a great deep threat. Remember...we're talking 21+ yard throws here. You don't think Gronk has caught plenty of 20-30 yarders? Even 40-50 yarders?

(Just so you know, Gronk caught 17 passes of at least 21 yards last year alone)

Dalton's long ball stats aren't just "decent", unless you want to say Ben and Brady are also only "decent". As for Dalton being a product of AJ Green, if this is the case, then why did Dalton's best long ball year come when AJ missed the most games (7+) in 2016? 

Dalton's long ball stats that year were: 19 of 48 (39.6%) for 753 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs. Career high 108.0 rating in that category. It was also the 2nd most completions he's ever had in that category.

[wolverine515151]

(04-07-2018, 10:36 AM)fredtoast Wrote: The claim that every other QB hits receivers in stride 40 yards downfield is ridiculous.  Just go look at the completion percentages for ALL of them.  Dalton doesn't overthrow or underthrow worse than any other QB.

In '07 Brady's offensive line included

LT Matt Light.. All-Pro '07... Pro Bowl '06, '07, '10
LG Logan Mankins... All-Pro '10... Pro Bowl '07, '09-'13, '15
C  Dan Koppen... Pro Bowl '07

And in addition to Moss he had All-Pro WR Wes Welker with 112 receptions and TE Ben Watson who had averaged 13.1 yards per catch on 49 receptions the year before and would later have huge years for the Saints (74 rec 825 yds) and Browns (68 rec 763yds).

It is silly to claim that all Brady needs is one good WR to put up numbers like he did in '07.  That Patriots offense was like an All Star team.

I never said every qb, I said the elite qb's will hit an open receiver in stride at a much higher rate.  I never once said ALL the qb's in the league. 

You're just naming a slot receiver and a TE who aren't deep threats. The fact is, the only time Brady had a deep threat comparable to AJ was in 07 when he put up 50 td's and had only 8 ints. Moss had 23 TD's that year!! Has Green come close to that many TD's? No he hasn't, because Dalton can't him him stride on the deep balls like Brady hit Moss in stride.

Since when were Wes Walker or Ben Watson a deep threat like Randy Moss. Name any other time Brady had a DEEP THREAT comparable to AJ Green. You can't because that is the only time he has had a wide receiver as good as AJ as a deep threat. 

Green is wide open many times and he misses him by miles, if it was Brady throwing the ball he would hit him in stride much more often. 

Dalton had a good offensive line too, so what point are you making. He had Whitworth protecting his blind side, Boling at LG, Cook at C, Zeitler at RG and a productive Smith at RT.  You could argue, that most of our offensive line was playing at a pro bowl level for a few years. The fact that the Patriots offensive lineman made those pro bowls, and ours didn't, is more an indictment against the bengals than them not being pro bowl players. Whitworth should have made 7 pro bowls and was snubbed many times by big market teams left tackles.

Like I said, the fact Dalton puts up average numbers on deep balls is because of AJ Green, not because he's good at throwing deep balls. Green has averaged 8 TD's a year and has never come close to 23 Td's moss put up that one year.

Just because a deep ball is completed doesn't mean it was a good throw. If Green gets 10 yards of separation, and Dalton shanks a ball short forcing him to have to come back to the ball, out jump 3 defensive backs, doesn't mean Dalton hit him in stride with the pass. TD's are an indicator that a QB hit the wide receiver in stride, because instead of that ball being a 30 yard completion at the say the 25 yard line, its a TD. AJ should be averaging far more than 8 TD's a year and Dalton's inability to hit him in stride on the deep balls is why it's not a lot more than that.

[wolverine515151]

(04-07-2018, 11:06 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The stats are irrefutable facts. This post is nothing but salty opinion. If you're going to call me out as clownish, at least dispute my facts with some facts of your own. Gronk has been a great deep threat. Remember...we're talking 21+ yard throws here. You don't think Gronk has caught plenty of 20-30 yarders? Even 40-50 yarders?

(Just so you know, Gronk caught 17 passes of at least 21 yards last year alone)

Dalton's long ball stats aren't just "decent", unless you want to say Ben and Brady are also only "decent". As for Dalton being a product of AJ Green, if this is the case, then why did Dalton's best long ball year come when AJ missed the most games (7+) in 2016? 

Dalton's long ball stats that year were: 19 of 48 (39.6%) for 753 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs. Career high 108.0 rating in that category. It was also the 2nd most completions he's ever had in that category.

Who cares if there facts, they are just stats with very little context unless you figure out who each qb had as weapons to throw the ball too. Its not being salty, it's calling out a completely nonsense statement comparing Dalton to Brady which most fans would consider clownish. To even make that comparison is a joke. 

Wer'e talking about DEEP THREATS! Since when is Gronk a deep threat like AJ Green?? Like I stated, the only time Brady had a wide receiver comparable to AJ green was in 07 when he had a prime Randy Moss, and he put up insane numbers that Dalton has never come close to putting up. 50 TD's and 8 INTS. Moss had 23 TD's

If he had his best year when AJ Green missed 7 games, how many of those completion were to AJ Green? Show some details to back up that argument. I'll bet 70% of those completions went to the play maker AJ Green.

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2018, 02:17 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Green is wide open many times and he misses him by miles, if it was Brady throwing the ball he would hit him in stride much more often. 

No he would not.  You are just making that up.

(04-06-2018, 03:04 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Dalton

113 of 361 (31.3% completion rate)
89.4 passer rating

Brady

128 of 402 (31.8% completion rate)
88.8 passer rating

Last year Brady had Brandon Cook who averaged 16.7 ypc

The year before that Chris Hogan led the league with his 17.9 avg per reception.

Rob Gronkowski's 16.9 avg over the last three seasons is NUMBER ONE in the league among the 122 players with at least 100 receptions.

Brady has had plenty of deep threat receivers.  In fact he usually has two with Gronl plus a WR.  

I am not saying that Dalton is a better QB than Brady, but Dalton is just as good throwing the deep pass as him.

I have posted the numbers for years.  I hate the ESPN keeps track of the passes based on how deep they are thrown  but they don't provide cumulative career stats or yearly leaders.  It is just too much work to figure out the cumulative stats for all the QBs in the league, but over his entire career I'd say Dalton is top 10.  That is exactly where the OP stands he claims among all qbs from '06 through '17. 

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2018, 02:17 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Like I said, the fact Dalton puts up average numbers on deep balls is because of AJ Green, not because he's good at throwing deep balls. Green has averaged 8 TD's a year and has never come close to 23 Td's moss put up that one year.

All this argument does is prove that Moss was better than Green.

If Green made Dalton then the same logic proves Moss made Brady.

[wolverine515151]

(04-07-2018, 06:59 PM)fredtoast Wrote: All this argument does is prove that Moss was better than Green.

If Green made Dalton then the same logic proves Moss made Brady.

It doesn't prove Moss is better than Green, nor does it prove Moss made Brady. It proves that Moss can put up huge numbers because of Brady and AJ can't because he has Dalton.

It proves that , with a great QB and great WR, the QB and WR can put up huge numbers.  They both elevate each others numbers.

If you only have a mediocre QB and a great WR , the numbers are just decent for the QB, and good for the WR.   Dalton diminishes Greens numbers and Green elevates Daltons numbers.

If AJ had Brady throwing him the ball he'd put up 2000 yards and 20 TD's similar to Moss.

[wolverine515151]

(04-07-2018, 06:56 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No he would not.  You are just making that up.

I am not making it up. Go watch the games.  Nobody gets more separation on deep balls than Green. Dalton doesn't hit him with the ball in stride nearly enough times as he should, if he were an elite QB. Many times Green has his hands up and is begging for the ball and Dalton throws up a shank. You obviously don't watch the games and just study the stats, which you cherry pick and put up on the bengals boards. 

[PDub80]

(04-07-2018, 06:59 PM)fredtoast Wrote: All this argument does is prove that Moss was better than Green.

If Green made Dalton then the same logic proves Moss made Brady.

No, it's not at all. Not all things in a comparison are equal, Fred.

Tom Brady has done extremely well with almost any WR/TE combos. A super talented WR just amplifies his stats.

Without AJ Green, Andy Dalton is steaming hot dog crap instead of just below avg to avg. Note the excuses people make for 2014 Andy. He looked like a lost little kid at the grocery without his daddy to take lead him around when AJ Green was hurt. Tom Brady doesn't give a crap about that. He's made a ton of WRs look great and in many different types of offense with several different OCs.

Andy Dalton would have the same stats with a Randy Moss. Like Green, Moss would outrun Andy's weak throws.

[PDub80]

(04-07-2018, 11:06 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The stats are irrefutable facts. This post is nothing but salty opinion. If you're going to call me out as clownish, at least dispute my facts with some facts of your own. Gronk has been a great deep threat. Remember...we're talking 21+ yard throws here. You don't think Gronk has caught plenty of 20-30 yarders? Even 40-50 yarders?

(Just so you know, Gronk caught 17 passes of at least 21 yards last year alone)

Dalton's long ball stats aren't just "decent", unless you want to say Ben and Brady are also only "decent". As for Dalton being a product of AJ Green, if this is the case, then why did Dalton's best long ball year come when AJ missed the most games (7+) in 2016? 

Dalton's long ball stats that year were: 19 of 48 (39.6%) for 753 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs. Career high 108.0 rating in that category. It was also the 2nd most completions he's ever had in that category.

Paltering: Using facts to deceive. Just because something is true, doesn't make it accurate.

The stats you put forth are for throws 20+ yards. 20 - 30 yards are considered intermediate/medium throws. I provided a link where Andy was the worst in the NFL at 31+

[PDub80]

(04-04-2018, 05:33 PM)PhilHos Wrote: You do realize you're talking to someone who thinks our OL was okay in 2016, right?

The O Line finished the year ranked 13th in 2016. If that's NOT Okay, you must think 15th and below ranked Andy Dalton is garbage?

2015 the O line was 8th
2014 7th

Now, what BS is in the next car on your excuse train?

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-07-2018, 02:17 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I never said every qb, I said the elite qb's will hit an open receiver in stride at a much higher rate.  I never once said ALL the qb's in the league. 

You're just naming a slot receiver and a TE who aren't deep threats. The fact is, the only time Brady had a deep threat comparable to AJ was in 07 when he put up 50 td's and had only 8 ints. Moss had 23 TD's that year!! Has Green come close to that many TD's?  No he hasn't, because Dalton can't him him stride on the deep balls like Brady hit Moss in stride.

Since when were Wes Walker or Ben Watson a deep threat like Randy Moss. Name any other time Brady had a DEEP THREAT comparable to AJ Green. You can't because that is the only time he has had a wide receiver as good as AJ as a deep threat. 

Green is wide open many times and he misses him by miles, if it was Brady throwing the ball he would hit him in stride much more often.

Dalton had a good offensive line too, so what point are you making. He had Whitworth protecting his blind side, Boling at LG, Cook at C, Zeitler at RG and a productive Smith at RT.  You could argue, that most of our offensive line was playing at a pro bowl level for a few years. The fact that the Patriots offensive lineman made those pro bowls, and ours didn't, is more an indictment against the bengals than them not being pro bowl players. Whitworth should have made 7 pro bowls and was snubbed many times by big market teams left tackles.

Like I said, the fact Dalton puts up average numbers on deep balls is because of AJ Green, not because he's good at throwing deep balls. Green has averaged 8 TD's a year and has never come close to 23 Td's moss put up that one year.

Just because a deep ball is completed doesn't mean it was a good throw. If Green gets 10 yards of separation, and Dalton shanks a ball short forcing him to have to come back to the ball, out jump 3 defensive backs, doesn't mean Dalton hit him in stride with the pass.  TD's are an indicator that a QB hit the wide receiver in stride, because instead of that ball being a 30 yard completion at the say the 25 yard line, its a TD.  AJ should be averaging far more than 8 TD's a year and Dalton's inability to hit him in stride on the deep balls is why it's not a lot more than that.

And the stats prove this huh ? That's why Brady has so much better deep ball numbers... oh wait 

This applies to all QB's right...... oh wait 

Bro you can't pick and choose when facts apply and when they don't. You're supporting your points with nothing but opinion !

I'm curious though how many times a game does AJ get 10 yards of separation ? I'd like to see this tape. 

I can also assure you Brady, Rodgers, whoever you want to name have a bunch of less than perfect, in stride deep completions. Sure they show them on the highlight films. But Dalton has in stride throws as well.

You just choose to ignore them.

The stats don't lie, despite how much you try and spin them.

[PDub80]

(04-07-2018, 08:54 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: And the stats prove this huh ? That's why Brady has so much better deep ball numbers... oh wait 

This applies to all QB's right...... oh wait 

Bro you can't pick and choose when facts apply and when they don't. You're supporting your points with nothing but opinion !

I'm curious though how many times a game does AJ get 10 yards of separation ? I'd like to see this tape. 

I can also assure you Brady, Rodgers, whoever you want to name have a bunch of less than perfect, in stride deep completions. Sure they show them on the highlight films. But Dalton has in stride throws as well.

You just choose to ignore them.

The stats don't lie, despite how much you try and spin them.

Again, for the umpteenth time in this thread, Andy is ok 20-30 yards. 30+ he's trash. Stats prove it.

I linked several statistics where it breaks down hang time, yards in the air, yards from release point, completion %, etc. from 2016 & 2017. Guy then says the Oline stunk in2016 as an excuse... it was ranked 13th in the league. That's better than the line from other guys ranked higher.

Anyone who thinks Dalton's a good deep ball thrower isn't watching the games. Period. AJ Green bails him out all the time. Other receivers bail him out or, when they can't, are looking around in frustration. It's obvious on so many levels.

[PDub80]

The Deep Ball Project: ANDY DALTON Grade C-

Makes sense since he's a C level QB....

https://brickwallblitz.com/2017/03/26/the-2016-17-deep-ball-project-13/

[wolverine515151]

(04-07-2018, 08:54 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: And the stats prove this huh ? That's why Brady has so much better deep ball numbers... oh wait 

This applies to all QB's right...... oh wait 

Bro you can't pick and choose when facts apply and when they don't. You're supporting your points with nothing but opinion !

I'm curious though how many times a game does AJ get 10 yards of separation ? I'd like to see this tape. 

I can also assure you Brady, Rodgers, whoever you want to name have a bunch of less than perfect, in stride deep completions. Sure they show them on the highlight films. But Dalton has in stride throws as well.

You just choose to ignore them.

The stats don't lie, despite how much you try and spin them.

What is being spun is you cherry picking stats the last five years, when Brady has had no serious deep threats besides an often injured tight end in gronk, who isn't an legitimate deep threat, he's more of a intermediate threat, and saying he's the same as Dalton on the deep throws, who has Green to throw the ball to. 

How is it opinion when Brady threw 50 TD's and 23 TD's to Moss. Dalton with a similar weapon in AJ never came close to that. That is not opinion that is called FACTS!!

Like was stated,  to make a FAIR comparison, both QB's would need similar weapons to throw the ball to, and when they were both equal Brady 07 put up stats Dalton could never put up. His deep balls stats were far better than Dalton has ever put up.

Yes its true, many times Green is wide open as much as 10 yards, that's no exaggeration.  Go watch the tape!

I never claimed the elite QB's never missed on deep throws, it's how often they miss. The elite QB's might not hit the WR in stride every time but they sure miss a lot less than Dalton does.  Without Green, Dalton would look like Gabbert on deep throws. He wouldn't be getting bailed out by the best deep threat in the league. AJ is the most acrobatic wide receiver in the league, and can adjust to a badly thrown ball better than anyone.

[*Synric*]

(04-07-2018, 09:22 PM)PDub80 Wrote: The Deep Ball Project: ANDY DALTON Grade C

Makes sense since he's a C level QB....

https://brickwallblitz.com/2017/03/26/the-2016-17-deep-ball-project-13/

Woah now. You need to read more of that random blog than a single article.

He says Ryan Tannehill is the most underrated QB in the NFL and is top 5...I'd put my trust in a PFF article over this guy's blog.

[wolverine515151]

(04-07-2018, 09:17 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Again, for the umpteenth time in this thread, Andy is ok 20-30 yards. 30+ he's trash. Stats prove it.

I linked several statistics where it breaks down hang time, yards in the air, yards from release point, completion %, etc. from 2016 & 2017. Guy then says the Oline stunk in2016 as an excuse... it was ranked 13th in the league. That's better than the line from other guys ranked higher.

Anyone who thinks Dalton's a good deep ball thrower isn't watching the games. Period. AJ Green bails him out all the time. Other receivers bail him out or, when they can't, are looking around in frustration. It's obvious on so many levels.

 You're exactly right, 20 yard throws are actually intermediate throws. Deep throws need to be 30 yards or more, and when that is analysed Dalton, even with AJ to bail him out, Dalton is bottom of the barrel. 

Dalton is good on the 25 yard throws because they are actually 15 yard throws disguised as 25 yard throws. Dalton throws a 15 yarder, it goes for 25, and he's considered a good deep ball thrower. Like when Dalton hit AJ with a simple 15 yard throw against the titans, and the play maker AJ made a great move and took it in for a 70 yard TD. 

[PDub80]

(04-07-2018, 09:49 PM)Synric Wrote: Woah now. You need to read more of that random blog than a single article.

He says Ryan Tannehill is the most underrated QB in the NFL and is top 5...I'd put my trust in a PFF article over this guy's blog.

I will reread.

But, uh... this isn't about Tannehill. Can you disagree with what he wrote about Dalton? I cannot.

[PDub80]

Here's the 2018 edition https://brickwallblitz.com/2018/03/28/the-2017-18-deep-ball-project/

4th to last in deep ball accuracy if you don't want to read it.

2014 - C- (but aheadof Brady that season!) https://brickwallblitz.com/2015/04/29/the-best-deep-ball-quarterback-of-2014-part-13/

2015 Andy earned a B and the guy had some real positives. But, as I have always said, the 2nd half of 2015 wasn't nearly as strong as the first for Dalton. He brings this up while pointing out how strong the guys are around Andy. Which also supports my theory of great players were making him look good NOT the other way around. https://brickwallblitz.com/2016/06/09/the-best-deep-ball-quarterback-of-2015-part-13/

[Passepartout]

Yeah as PFF is the guide to go too. As really they are the real football experts.