AD better deep ball than u think

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2018, 08:08 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: It doesn't prove Moss is better than Green, nor does it prove Moss made Brady. It proves that Moss can put up huge numbers because of Brady and AJ can't because he has Dalton.

It proves that , with a great QB and great WR, the QB and WR can put up huge numbers.  They both elevate each others numbers.

If you only have a mediocre QB and a  great WR , the numbers are just decent for the QB, and good for the WR.   Dalton diminishes Greens numbers and Green elevates Daltons numbers.

If AJ had Brady throwing him the ball he'd put up 2000 yards and 20 TD's similar to Moss.

You are talkiing in circles.

You can't claim that Daltons numbers are all due to Green, but Brady's numbers aren't all due to Moss.

If the WR makes the QB then Brady was just better than Dalton because Moss was better than Green.

 

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2018, 10:26 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Here's the 2018 edition https://brickwallblitz.com/2018/03/28/the-2017-18-deep-ball-project/

4th to last if you don't want to read it.

But if you do actually read it he is 23 of 35

[wolverine515151]

(04-07-2018, 10:41 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You are talkiing in circles.

You can't claim that Daltons numbers are all due to Green, but Brady's numbers aren't all due to Moss.

If the WR makes the QB then Brady was just better than Dalton because Moss was better than Green.

 

I can certainly claim Dalton deep numbers are mainly because of Green because he's the main deep threat. Same with Brady because Moss was the main deep threat. Two great players elevate each others play. A great player elevates a mediocre player while a mediocre player diminishes a great players stats.

I'll break it down for so you can understand. Obviously I have to simplify it for you to grasp. 

Brady + Moss  Brady 50 TDs Moss 23 TDs

Dalton + Green  Dalton 25 TD Green 10 TD

Brady + Green  Brady 50 TDs Green 23 TDs

Dalton + Moss Dalton 25 TD Moss 10 TD

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2018, 10:26 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Here's the 2018 edition https://brickwallblitz.com/2018/03/28/the-2017-18-deep-ball-project/

4th to last if you don't want to read it.

2014 - C- (but aheadof Brady that season!) https://brickwallblitz.com/2015/04/29/the-best-deep-ball-quarterback-of-2014-part-13/

2015 Andy earned a B and the guy had some real positives. But, as I have always said, the 2nd half of 2015 wasn't nearly as strong as the first for Dalton. He brings this up while pointing out how strong the guys are around Andy. Which also supports my theory of great players were making him look good NOT the other way around. https://brickwallblitz.com/2016/06/09/the-best-deep-ball-quarterback-of-2015-part-13/

3 C's and a B over the last 4 years.  Average to above average.  Sounds about right.

Too bad they don't have the results from 2013 when dalton had a 109.2 rating on the 37 passes he threw over 30 yards past the line of scrimmage.

[*bfine32*]

(04-07-2018, 10:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 3 C's and a B over the last 4 years.  Average to above average.  Sounds about right.

Too bad they don't have the results from 2013 when dalton had a 109.2 rating on the 37 passes he threw over 30 yards past the line of scrimmage.

Too bad 2013 is 5 years ago. 

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2018, 10:04 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Dalton is good on the 25 yard throws because they are actually 15 yard throws disguised as 25 yard throws. Dalton throws a 15 yarder, it goes for 25, and he's considered a good deep ball thrower. Like when Dalton hit AJ with a simple 15 yard throw against the titans, and the play maker AJ made a great move and took it in for a 70 yard TD. 

Uh, no.  The stats most of us are quoting here are based on how far past the line of scrimmage the ball is thrown.  ESPN has these numbers under the QB splits.  

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2018, 11:01 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Too bad 2013 is 5 years ago. 

Why does that matter?

Do you think Dalton's skills have eroded since 2013?

I don't.

[*bfine32*]

(04-07-2018, 11:03 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Why does that matter?

Do you think Dalton's skills have eroded since 2013?

I don't.

Seems someone around here said we shouldn't focus on one year; but then they do.

Quick go back to the top 10 ever QB stuff. 

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2018, 10:53 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I can certainly claim Dalton deep numbers are mainly because of Green because he's the main deep threat. Same with Brady because Moss was the main deep threat.  Two great players elevate each others play. A great player elevates a mediocre player while a mediocre player diminishes a great players stats.

I'll break it down for so you can understand. Obviously I have to simplify it for you to grasp. 

Brady + Moss  Brady 50 TDs Moss 23 TDs

Dalton + Green  Dalton 25 TD Green 10 TD

Brady + Green  Brady 50 TDs Green 23 TDs

Dalton + Moss Dalton 25 TD Moss 10 TD

You can type it as many differnt ways as you want.  It still proves nothing.  I could just as easily claim that Dalton would have a lot more tds with Moss instead of Green.

Brady depended on Moss to produce almost half of his td passes (46%) while Dalton only needed Green to produce 28% of his td passes.  Moss was much bigger part of making Brady look good than Green was to Dalton.

[wolverine515151]

(04-07-2018, 11:03 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Why does that matter?

Do you think Dalton's skills have eroded since 2013?

I don't.

It matters because one season worth of stats is pure cherry picking, especially when you make them up and they probably don't exist. Players can get a lot worse in the span of five years. 

[PDub80]

(04-07-2018, 10:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: But if you do actually read it he is 23 of 35

My fault, Fred. You are 100% correct. I meant to quote the 4th to last in accuracy and I moved on to the next post without finishing by accident. I meant to quote this from his Dalton write up....

"Dalton was the 4th least accurate deep passer, as well as the 6th least accurate on open window passes. AJ Green had his share of bad drops in the latter half of the 2017 season, but Dalton largely gave him a raw deal (more so than usual)."


Dalton was ranked overall 23/35. Still bad. But better than 31/35. I would not intentionally mislead with a stat like that. I will edit it. Thanks!

[wolverine515151]

(04-07-2018, 11:12 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You can type it as many differnt ways as you want.  It still proves nothing.  I could just as easily claim that Dalton would have a lot more tds with Moss instead of Green.

Brady depended on Moss to produce almost half of his td passes (46%) while Dalton only needed Green to produce 28% of his td passes.  Moss was much bigger part of making Brady look good than Green was to Dalton.

Obviously Green will produce only 28% of the TD's Dalton threw because he probably missed him on 10 deep throws.  If those deep throws weren't missed Green would have scored another 10 TD's and would have produced 50% of Daltons TD's 

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2018, 11:06 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Seems someone around here said we shouldn't focus on one year; but then they do.

Quick go back to the top 10 ever QB stuff. 

Actually I wish it went back for the full 7 years of Dalton's career.  I just pointed out the '13 season because it was missing from the stats Pdub had provided.

Speaking of looking at an entire career and "top ten" stuff, according to the OP Dalton has a top ten passer rating on long passes since they started keeping those stats in '06.


You're welcome.

[*bfine32*]

(04-07-2018, 11:17 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually I wish it went back for the full 7 years of Dalton's career.  I just pointed out the '13 season because it was missing from the stats Pdub had provided.

Speaking of looking at an entire career and "top ten" stuff, according to the OP Dalton has a top ten passer rating on long passes since they started keeping those stats in '06.


You're welcome.

Meh, I think there's another reason you brought up the 2013 season, but you can lie to you. You might even believe it. 

[PDub80]

(04-07-2018, 10:27 PM)Passepartout Wrote: Yeah as PFF is the guide to go too. As really they are the real football experts.

Yeah, a bunch of Bengals homers are wayyyy more accurate in their assessments.  :paul: 

In interviews Bengals coaches and media members have several times over the years mentioned PFF grading as something they've used as a metric in occasion.

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2018, 11:15 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Obviously Green will produce only 28% of the TD's Dalton threw because he probably missed him on 10 deep throws.  If those deep throws weren't missed Green would have scored another 10 TD's and would have produced 50% of Daltons TD's 

Wrong.  Moss had more tds because he got open more often than Green.  If Dalton had Moss to throw to then he would have had 16 more tds (23 instead of 7).


See the problem with your logic now?

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2018, 11:20 PM)PDub80 Wrote: In interviews Bengals coaches and media members have several times over the years mentioned PFF grading as something they've used as a metric in occasion.

Media use it.  Coaches don't.

PFF keeps track of some informative stats, but their individual ranking system is a joke.

[wolverine515151]

(04-07-2018, 11:21 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Wrong.  Moss had more tds because he got open more often than Green.  If Dalton had Moss to throw to then he would have had 16 more tds (23 instead of 7).


See the problem with your logic now?

The problem is with your logic. Lets assume same amount of deep throws to each.  Also assume that each deep throw scores a TD if hit in stride.  This is purely an example. The numbers being used are for illustration purposes.

Brady hits Moss on 15 of 50 deep throws.  He scores 15 TD's

Dalton hits Green on 5 of 50 deep passes.  Green scores 5 TD's on the deep throws. 

If Dalton hit Green at the same rate as Brady hit Moss, then Green would have had 15 TD's on deep throws instead of 5. That's 10 more and increases his TD percentage from 28% to say 50% of all Dalton throws

[*bfine32*]

Let's ask a question and see if we can get an honest answer:

Is Andy closer to Tom or id AJ closer to Randy

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2018, 11:20 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Meh, I think there's another reason you brought up the 2013 season, but you can lie to you. You might even believe it. 

I brought it up because it makes Dalton look better.  What is wrong with that?  What is so magical about the year 2014 that makes it the proper cut off to judge Dalton?  Why do the years before that not count?