AD better deep ball than u think

[fredtoast]

(04-11-2018, 02:17 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: If Dalton is throwing bad throws it is more likely to happen on a deep throw than a short throw.  So if these bad balls do occur they are much more likely to happen on a deep throw,  that is just logical, no data needs to prove the obvious. 

So now you are claiming that you do not even need to know any numbers on deep throws to determin which QB is best at throwing deep?  All you have to do is look at his total numbers and that tells you how well he throws the deep ball?

I thought the wholoe point of this discussion was to look at deep throw sseperate from all the others to decide who was the best at throwing the deep pass.  But now you are trying to say "Just look at all the throws.  The deep throws will be exactly the same."

[fredtoast]

(04-11-2018, 02:12 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I even looked at Fitzpatrick's deep throw qb rating numbers over 40 yards, it has him rated over 100 since 2012, and we all know Fitzpatrick has a weak arm and shanks a lot of balls over 30 yards. I didn't even think Fitzpatrick could throw it over 40 yards. If it is showing Fitzpatrick as an elite deep thrower over 40 yards then  the qb rating formula is flawed.

Here is the perfect example of what is wrong with your argument.  Any stat that does not agree with your opinion is "garbage".  So basically you don't care about stats.  You just want to state your opinion and ignore any stat that says you are wrong.

How was Fitz able to complete 5 passes over 40 yards past the line of scrimmage if he can't even throw it 40 yards?

[Joelist]

(04-11-2018, 03:29 PM)PhilHos Wrote: 59.9% completion % on 496 passing attempts for 3,320 yards, 25 TDs, 12 INTs and a QB rating of 86.6 = garbage?

Dude wasn't great in 2017, but to claim he's garbage and then claim that other's analyses is wrong or misinformed or "paltering" ... ? That's just wrong, man.

Don't forget this was also with no run game, the worst OL in football and really only one reliable receiver. 

[*PhilHos*]

(04-11-2018, 04:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Since Dalton's performance determins how good Green is then  for Greens career Dalton has been outstanding throwing the ball deep and one of the best all around in the NFL.

If this isn't a drop the mic post, I don't know what is. 

Rep.

[*PhilHos*]

(04-11-2018, 05:31 PM)Joelist Wrote: Don't forget this was also with no run game, the worst OL in football and really only one reliable receiver. 

Trust me, I haven't forgotten. 

[PDub80]

(04-11-2018, 04:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Since Dalton's performance determins how good Green is then  for Greens career Dalton has been outstanding throwing the ball deep and one of the best all around in the NFL.

Do you feel that they are equally reliant on each other? I don't feel as if the relationship is weighted equally both ways.

[fredtoast]

(04-11-2018, 06:13 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Do you feel that they are equally reliant on each other? I don't feel as if the relationship is weighted equally both ways.

I know exactly how you feel and there is no way to support your position.

You can't say that Green makes Andy good and then at the same time claim that Greens success depends on Dalton.

That is an absurd troll-level argument with zero logic.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-11-2018, 02:16 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Again, this is paltering.

1. You're showing one statistic (passer rating on deep throws over 31 yards) and sitting on it as if it paints an entire picture. That's flat out wrong. It's a conclusion presented with wildly incomplete data.

2. Most QBs have high passer ratings on deep throws like that.

3. Why don't you look at completion % on those throws? Why don't you look at throws missed out of bounds? Why don't you review film of these throws to actually analyze the play itself? Etc. Etc.

^ One of the links I posted did that and so so much more. And they rated Dalton poorly and below avg to last in the NFL in some of these statistics every year.

Before you say film doesn't matter and that the result is the result, let me warn you to be cautious there in this debate. Because if nothing else matters than the result you cannot sit on a poor O Line causing any issues. If the result is the result for the QB when it's good than it has to be the same when he's bad.

As far as the 20-30 yard throws, your data there is poor and incomplete as well. I'll fix that tomorrow.

I'm all for being wrong. But you can't post incomplete and vietually inconsquential data without comparison or context... while ignoring other evidence... and then think people will eat it up. That's paltering.

1. Again...you were just fine with the stats initially. You just took issue with me using the 21-30 yard range. You thought this was a strength of Dalton's and it skewed the numbers with "mid-range" throws. This is when you first used accused me of "paltering".

I then took out the 21-30 yard category. You saw that Dalton's numbers improved. Somehow it's still "paltering".

2. No, most QB's do not have a high rating on 31+ yard throws. You're making this up. Tom Brady has a 67.0 rating on these throws since 2011. I showed you that. Ben has an 87.0 rating. Both are well behind Dalton's 101.7. 

3. I did show the completion percentages. Here they are again (since 2011) and I'll even throw in a few more QB's:

Aaron Rodgers- 39.5%
Andy Dalton- 34.8%
Pig Ben: 27.2%
Flacco: 25.7%
Newton: 24.9%
Brady: 22.5%

Now passer ratings:

Rodgers: 112.7
Dalton: 101.7
Newton: 95.2
Pig Ben: 87.0
Flacco: 86.0
Brady: 67.0

Complete stats:

Dalton: 55-158-2599-20-8 (101.7) 34.8%

Brady: 32-142-1542-9-9 (67.0) 22.5%
Ben: 58-213-2793-25-16 (87.0) 27.2%
Cam: 47-189-2012-21-6 (95.2) 24.9%
Rodgers: 47-119-2242-23-4 (112.7) 39.5%
Flacco: 49-191-2242-17-9 (86.0) 25.7%

4. Again...the link you provided only analyzed one year (2014). Yet you think this is more comprehensive than analyzing a career's worth of stats and comparing it against other QB's? Also - again - that link graded Dalton 16th in throws of 31-40 yards and 5th in throws of 40+ yards. Did you post some other link later in the thread that I missed? 

Because the links in post #10 include a link that is useless for deep ball discussion, and the other is for one year and doesn't grade Dalton poorly on anything other than 21-30 yarders, which you said you don't count as true deep throws. 

This is the link you posted that I'm talking about, and the only one I saw from you that analyzes everything (in 2014):

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/qbs-in-focus-deep-passing-2

What are you seeing in that link that shows Dalton is poor on 31+ yard throws?

[PDub80]

(04-11-2018, 07:29 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I know exactly how you feel and there is no way to support your position.

You can't say that Green makes Andy good and then at the same time claim that Greens success depends on Dalton.

That is an absurd troll-level argument with zero logic.

LOL at me having zero logic. Let's look at your "logic" here in another comparison....

So, by your logic, Daunte Culpepper was equally as good as Randy Moss or Chris Carter?

Come on.   Do you see how stupid that position is in this debate?

[PDub80]

(04-11-2018, 08:27 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote:

1. Again...you were just fine with the stats initially. You just took issue with me using the 21-30 yard range. You thought this was a strength of Dalton's and it skewed the numbers with "mid-range" throws. This is when you first used accused me of "paltering".

I then took out the 21-30 yard category. You saw that Dalton's numbers improved. Somehow it's still "paltering".

2. No, most QB's do not have a high rating on 31+ yard throws. You're making this up. Tom Brady has a 67.0 rating on these throws since 2011. I showed you that. Ben has an 87.0 rating. Both are well behind Dalton's 101.7. 

3. I did show the completion percentages. Here they are again (since 2011) and I'll even throw in a few more QB's:

Aaron Rodgers- 39.5%
Andy Dalton- 34.8%
Pig Ben: 27.2%
Flacco: 25.7%
Newton: 24.9%
Brady: 22.5%

Now passer ratings:

Rodgers: 112.7
Dalton: 101.7
Newton: 95.2
Pig Ben: 87.0
Flacco: 86.0
Brady: 67.0

Complete stats:

Dalton: 55-158-2599-20-8 (101.7) 34.8%

Brady: 32-142-1542-9-9 (67.0) 22.5%
Ben: 58-213-2793-25-16 (87.0) 27.2%
Cam: 47-189-2012-21-6 (95.2) 24.9%
Rodgers: 47-119-2242-23-4 (112.7) 39.5%
Flacco: 49-191-2242-17-9 (86.0) 25.7%

4. Again...the link you provided only analyzed one year (2014). Yet you think this is more comprehensive than analyzing a career's worth of stats and comparing it against other QB's? Also - again - that link graded Dalton 16th in throws of 31-40 yards and 5th in throws of 40+ yards. Did you post some other link later in the thread that I missed? 

Because the links in post #10 include a link that is useless for deep ball discussion, and the other is for one year and doesn't grade Dalton poorly on anything other than 21-30 yarders, which you said you don't count as true deep throws. 

This is the link you posted that I'm talking about, and the only one I saw from you that analyzes everything (in 2014):

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/qbs-in-focus-deep-passing-2

What are you seeing in that link that shows Dalton is poor on 31+ yard throws?

I've not taken issue with anything other than you using passer rating without expanding further.

I don't get why you keep touting these stats when I sent links to multiple years debunking what you're putting forth. I will expand it further and type it out later today as you seem unwilling to click the links and read the articles.

I didn't just link PFF, BTW. I also didn't link only one season. Yet, all you bring up is PFF and one season of links. I enjoy debating with you and other Bengals fans. It's fun. But, it's challenging to further debate when you don't read what I link. I understand being defensive of a player you love. I'll type and lay out some of these stats in a manner that's more succinct so people don't have to go through an entire article.

[fredtoast]

(04-12-2018, 10:23 AM)PDub80 Wrote: I will expand it further and type it out later today as you seem unwilling to click the links and read the articles.

WTF?  He specifically cited the info from the links you provided.

[PDub80]

(04-12-2018, 12:13 PM)fredtoast Wrote: WTF?  He specifically cited the info from the links you provided.

One link... I provided a bunch over multiple posts and from different sources covering multiple seasons for Dalton.

Also, are you dropping the QB and receiver must be equally good BS? I didn't see a response from my post #129.

Also, it's not shocking that a handful of Bengals fans think Dalton is good while the rest of the world is realistic. Every fan base has "those guys" that just fall in love with a player and stump for him. You did it for Marvin for.... 15 years.     You'll all come to the same realization on Andy as well. It just takes some a long time to learn.

[fredtoast]

(04-12-2018, 12:47 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Also, are you dropping the QB and receiver must be equally good BS? I didn't see a response from my post #129.

Are you dropping the claim that Greens production depends on Dalton?

[fredtoast]

(04-12-2018, 12:47 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Also, it's not shocking that a handful of Bengals fans think Dalton is good while the rest of the world is realistic. 

The "rest of the world" does not claim that Dalton sucks or is a pile of dog shit like you do.

You just posted a buunch of links showing Dalton to be average (C grade) to above average (B grade) and claimed it was proof that Dalton "sucks".

[Shake n Blake]

(04-12-2018, 12:47 PM)PDub80 Wrote: One link... I provided a bunch over multiple posts and from different sources covering multiple seasons for Dalton.

Also, are you dropping the QB and receiver must be equally good BS? I didn't see a response from my post #129.

Also, it's not shocking that a handful of Bengals fans think Dalton is good while the rest of the world is realistic. Every fan base has "those guys" that just fall in love with a player and stump for him. You did it for Marvin for.... 15 years.     You'll all come to the same realization on Andy as well. It just takes some a long time to learn.

You posted the following links in post #10:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards - This one has nothing that would be relevant to a deep ball discussion.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/qbs-in-focus-deep-passing-2 - This one is only for 2014, and grades Dalton 16th in throws of 31-40 yards and 5th on 40+.

As I said in my last post "maybe I missed links you posted later". I did. You posted the following links after that:

https://brickwallblitz.com/2017/03/26/the-2016-17-deep-ball-project-13/
https://brickwallblitz.com/2018/03/28/the-2017-18-deep-ball-project/
https://brickwallblitz.com/2015/04/29/the-best-deep-ball-quarterback-of-2014-part-13/
https://brickwallblitz.com/2016/06/09/the-best-deep-ball-quarterback-of-2015-part-13/

These are all from a blog that I've never heard of, written up by one guy who does all the grading. 

In 2014, he ranked Dalton 7th in deep passing with a C- grade
In 2015, he gave Dalton a B
In 2016 he gave Dalton a C-
In 2017 he had Dalton at 23rd...somehow better than Wentz, Stafford and Carr. Truly Puzzling, as Dalton was awful on deep throws last year, and I know Wentz was pretty fantastic.

So you have one useless link, one from a pretty respected source that rates Dalton fairly high on throws of 31+ (for that one year), and finally - links from a blog that seem to show a lot of variation, with grading done by some guy. Good years, ok years, bad years (like any QB). Nothing terrible overall though. 

The worst part of all this is that you previously ripped me for using 21-30 yard throws in my stats (I later removed them), yet you're providing all these links to this brickwall guy that is using all throws of 16+ yards to grade "deep" passing. 

---------------

If you have any links that show Dalton has been even "semi" consistently bad in the 31+ yard category (not just for 1 year), please share. This seems to be your opinion, and thus far you haven't provided any links that back your case. I am open to changing my opinion, but I'm going to need to see some very strong evidence, considering the base stats are so good.

And fwiw, I love base stats, because they're actual production that really happened. If Dalton sucked on deep throws, those base stats would eventually reflect that. Even AJ Green can't suddenly jump 10 feet or run at 40 mph to catch up to a poorly thrown ball. It has to be in his vicinity. He's not superhuman.

[*PhilHos*]

(04-12-2018, 12:47 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Also, it's not shocking that a handful of Bengals fans think Dalton is good while the rest of the world is realistic. Every fan base has "those guys" that just fall in love with a player and stump for him. You did it for Marvin for.... 15 years.     You'll all come to the same realization on Andy as well. It just takes some a long time to learn.

See, here's the thing: on one side you have the "Dalton defenders" who, as far as I can tell, pretty much veiw Dalton as an above average to good QB. Virtually no one on this side sees Dalton as a great or top 5 QB or anything like that. The vast majority of us would have no problem with getting a new QB if said QB was demonstrably better or at least had the potential to be better. Most of us, also use stats to back up our arguments.

Then on the other side, you have the "Dalton haters" who, as far as I can tell, think Dalton is a below average or "garbage" QB, rarely give him the credit he deserves, would have rather seen unproven McCarron start over him, and mainly use opinion to back up their arguments.

Maybe the realization needs to come from those who can't recognize that a decent QB is already starting for the Bengals.

[*PhilHos*]

(04-12-2018, 02:47 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: And fwiw, I love base stats, because they're actual production that really happened. If Dalton sucked on deep throws, those base stats would eventually reflect that. Even AJ Green can't suddenly jump 10 feet or run at 40 mph to catch up to a poorly thrown ball. It has to be in his vicinity. He's not superhuman.

Ahem, wolverine, I just want to make sure you re-read this gem from Shake. Thanks.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-12-2018, 04:57 PM)PhilHos Wrote: See, here's the thing: on one side you have the "Dalton defenders" who, as far as I can tell, pretty much veiw Dalton as an above average to good QB. Virtually no one on this side sees Dalton as a great or top 5 QB or anything like that. The vast majority of us would have no problem with getting a new QB if said QB was demonstrably better or at least had the potential to be better. Most of us, also use stats to back up our arguments.

Then on the other side, you have the "Dalton haters" who, as far as I can tell, think Dalton is a below average or "garbage" QB, rarely give him the credit he deserves, would have rather seen unproven McCarron start over him, and mainly use opinion to back up their arguments.

Maybe the realization needs to come from those who can't recognize that a decent QB is already starting for the Bengals.

Heck, I even helped the Dalton bashers out by showing that he sucks in the 21-30 range. I'm sure they could do something with that.

I have no delusions about Andy. He's great at the pre-snap reads and short passing game. Mid range could use some work and could be viewed as a weakness. Pocket awareness has been shaky - not good or awful, but shaky. If he doesn't set his feet, he's prone to ugly throws. He's been good on long balls. He's very good at avoiding turnovers. Overall I think he's a 10-12ish QB as long as the o-line isn't in shambles. 

If people who are hyper critical of Dalton would study other QB's with the same intensity, they'd find plenty of issues with those guys as well. The QB's who play at a top 5 elite level for 10 years can usually be counted on one hand.

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-12-2018, 12:47 PM)PDub80 Wrote: One link... I provided a bunch over multiple posts and from different sources covering multiple seasons for Dalton.

Also, are you dropping the QB and receiver must be equally good BS? I didn't see a response from my post #129.

Also, it's not shocking that a handful of Bengals fans think Dalton is good while the rest of the world is realistic. Every fan base has "those guys" that just fall in love with a player and stump for him. You did it for Marvin for.... 15 years.     You'll all come to the same realization on Andy as well. It just takes some a long time to learn.

I'm curious PDUB, you think Dalton is "not good" correct ? What is your rating for Dalton ? Poor ? Awful ? Below average ?

And how would you rate Ken Anderson, Boomer Esiason, Carson Palmer, and Jeff Blake ?

[fredtoast]

(04-12-2018, 05:21 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: If people who are hyper critical of Dalton would study other QB's with the same intensity, they'd find plenty of issues with those guys as well.

Exactly.  All they see is highlights of other QBs where they always complete the long pass.  But when you look at every pass thrown by every QB you will see that none of them hit the deep pass consistently.