Who would you trade by the deadline?

[guyofthetiger]

I was thinking the Reds would be sellers this year at the trade deadline. Matt Harvey could go since he's been pitching better. We also have 4 outfielders so one could go. Duvall is having a rough year and Winker is on the upside. That leaves Billy or Schebler on the trade block. I think Billy could bring a good return and be a late inning pinch runner for a contender. He could also be used for defense in late innings. Schebler is a streaky player, but could bring a good left batter off the bench. Either way I think one of them is gone.

[SunsetBengal]

For a team in "rebuild mode", I certainly wouldn't trade Harvey. If anything, I would think the Reds to be economical buyers of solid pitcher to build a staff from, for next year.

[Yojimbo]

(07-08-2018, 01:20 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: For a team in "rebuild mode", I certainly wouldn't trade Harvey. If anything, I would think the Reds to be economical buyers of solid pitcher to build a staff from, for next year.

Problem with Harvey, is he’s a FA at the end of the season. That’s why he and Gennet are perfect trade chips for a rebuilding team. The Reds aren’t going to be giving out huge contracts any time soon.

Really depends on how close the FO thinks we are, but there could be a huge fire sale if they wanted:
Harvey
Disco
Iglesias
Hughes
Hernandez

Gennet
Hamilton
Schebler
Duvall

[Goalpost]

Iglesias, Duvall and regrettably Harvey are probably the three to move.

[CJD]

Harvey needs to go, basically regardless of what we can get for him.

Don't Cozart him. We need to flip him into prospects. It doesn't matter what you get for him. Paying him for the remainder of the year, even if he pitches well, is completely pointless since there's less than a 5% chance we re-sign him (nor should we, really.)

Iglesias and Gennett I'd love to see traded but only if the return involved premium prospects. Both are under team control hfor a few more years, have team friendly contracts and, most importantly, are on fire this season. If you want premium returns for a closer (a relatively low value position for any team other than World Series Contenders) or a 2nd baseman who is standing in the way of multiple top prospects (who's pretty awful fielding the position anyway), then you need to strike when the iron's hot.

If we could turn them into a potent outfield bat or high upside rotation piece near the majors, then I'd call that a win.

[McC]

So we just keep rebuilding forever?

Scoring a lot of runs. Break up the lineup?

I am tired of the Reds being sellers. I want them to be keepers and see what this team can do with a fresh start next year. They might stink up the second half or this brand of ball they've been playing might be real. But you'll never find out by tearing it down.

[SunsetBengal]

(07-08-2018, 01:19 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Harvey needs to go, basically regardless of what we can get for him.

Don't Cozart him. We need to flip him into prospects. It doesn't matter what you get for him. Paying him for the remainder of the year, even if he pitches well, is completely pointless since there's less than a 5% chance we re-sign him (nor should we, really.)

Iglesias and Gennett I'd love to see traded but only if the return involved premium prospects. Both are under team control hfor a few more years, have team friendly contracts and, most importantly, are on fire this season. If you want premium returns for a closer (a relatively low value position for any team other than World Series Contenders) or a 2nd baseman who is standing in the way of multiple top prospects (who's pretty awful fielding the position anyway), then you need to strike when the iron's hot.

If we could turn them into a potent outfield bat or high upside rotation piece near the majors, then I'd call that a win.

So, are you of a mind that they should absolutely make those moves?  Or, more in a "if they're going to sell", they should move these guys type of mindset?

[CJD]

(07-08-2018, 07:36 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: So, are you of a mind that they should absolutely make those moves?  Or, more in a "if they're going to sell", they should move these guys type of mindset?

Harvey they absolutely must move. He is completely worthless otherwise.

Iglesias and Gennett I'd only move if the package we get back makes you say "whoa! nice!" Something along the lines of a top 50 or maybe a top 100 prospect and then 1 other high potential prospect for either (not both) of them.

Gennett is still kind of a surprise, as he was waived by Milwaukee and was not expected to be what he is right now, so there may be some hesitation from teams offering premium prospects for him right now, but Iglesias could very easily justify a nice little package of prospects, especially since we already have Garrett sitting in the wings as a potential impact closer anyway.

That said, I'd be happy if they didn't trade either as well. They're both excellent players and are playing great this year. There is the temptation to sell high on Gennett, especially since we're playing with house money on that one (since we claimed him off waivers for nothing, following the line of a Dan Straily/Harvey type trade piece of turning nothing into something) but if what he's done in the last 2 seasons is any indication, he'd be a welcome long term addition to our team for sure. 

We can find space for him and Senzel on the same team. either of them could slide into LF if necessary. Now if we could just find a CF that knew how to hit...

[Yojimbo]

(07-08-2018, 04:22 PM)McC Wrote: So we just keep rebuilding forever?

Scoring a lot of runs. Break up the lineup?

I am tired of the Reds being sellers. I want them to be keepers and see what this team can do with a fresh start next year. They might stink up the second half or this brand of ball they've been playing might be real. But you'll never find out by tearing it down.

I think part of what is holding back the rebuild, are the contracts of Bailey and Votto. Besides the failure to develop young pitching.

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-08-2018, 04:22 PM)McC Wrote: So we just keep rebuilding forever?

Scoring a lot of runs.  Break up the lineup?

I am tired of the Reds being sellers.  I want them to be keepers and see what this team can do with a fresh start next year.   They might stink up the second half or this brand of ball they've been playing might be real.  But you'll never find out by tearing it down.

1000% agree !

At some point the Reds have to stop talking prospects, potential, rebuilding and actually REBUILD ! We've been dumping anybody and everybody of value except Votto for four going on five seasons now and received basically zero in return for them.

And I hear people talking two, three more years !! To that I call a giant BS. This team isn't that far away. I have no illusions this team is going anywhere this season and I doubt they're gonna be World Series contenders next season. But I could definitely see them in the playoff race next season with the right moves.

It's enough with the prospect talk already !!

[CJD]

(07-09-2018, 12:17 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: 1000% agree !

At some point the Reds have to stop talking prospects, potential, rebuilding and actually REBUILD ! We've been dumping anybody and everybody of value except Votto for four going on five seasons now and received basically zero in return for them.

And I hear people talking two, three more years !! To that I call a giant BS. This team isn't that far away. I have no illusions this team is going anywhere this season and I doubt they're gonna be World Series contenders next season. But I could definitely see them in the playoff race next season with the right moves.

It's enough with the prospect talk already !!

With the exception of Johnny Cueto and Aroldis Chapman (and arguably Todd Frazier) I feel like the trades we've done have, almost across the board, improved our team in a way that keeping those players couldn't have possibly resulted in.

In 2014, they flipped Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon into Anthony Desclefani and Eugenio Suarez, both of which were absolute steals, especially considering what Latos and Simon did from that point on (neither player had an ERA below 4.89 since the day we traded them, or racked up even a single WAR).

Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake they traded at the deadline in 2015 and got, really, a pretty decent package with Finnegan and Reed and Duvall and Mella coming back, respectively. 

For the Cueto trade, neither has panned out thus far, but both were considered high quality prospects. And this was done when Cueto was purely a rental. They knew they weren't going to re-sign him at the end of the year (although I disagree with that logic in principal, especially with Homer being inked for a ludicrous deal earlier that year.)

Leake was also a rental trade and brought in an every day LF (though one we will admittedly have to eventually replace, despite his excellent defense and power, due to batting avg woes) as well as a potential impact relief pitcher in a year or two. Neither of these trades blew the roof off the stadium in terms of value, but both players were going to sign to the highest bidder in the winter anyway, so it's not like we were losing all that much.

Todd Frazier they could have sold high on him at the deadline of 2015 and gotten a pretty massive haul (he had a very weak second half of the season to degrade his value a bit), but we still got Peraza and Schebler for that trade, two of today's starters who are both showing promise. Looking at what Frazier is doing right now, I don't think you can make an argument that Frazier's 2016 and 2017 seasons would have helped the Reds at all (he hit .220/.308/.454/.763 in those two years). 

The Aroldis Chapman trade was probably the worst trade in recent Reds history, as we got essentially nothing for a top tier reliever that, later that summer, netted the Yankees a top 5 prospect in Gleybor Torres. An overreaction to that gun charge. I mean...this one still stings. But, again, a rental trade that they had no intention of re-signing, so it was more so what they lost in potential trade value rather than losing the player himself.

They turned Jay Bruce, a rental inexplicably having a career year with prospects waiting behind him into a former top 50 prospect who has played very well at AAA this season and was just called up to the majors in Dilson Herrera. He has .300 hitting potential from an infield position which is always valuable and hopefully will be starting soon if we do indeed trade Gennett.

They converted Dan Straily, a waiver claim that was seen as a nobody into a potential ace that showed great potential last year and is starting to get back to form this year in Luis Castillo.

Brandon Phillips was a weird trade but his time in the majors was done anyway, as much as I know everyone hated to see him go... (as he has not made a major league team this season).

And then finally trading Floro for Marinan, while it sucks to see a quality bullpen arm like Floro go, he was another buy low sell high prospect who offers us nothing as we're rebuilding.

Honestly, going back over our trades in this recent era, the only one I actually cringe at is the Aroldis Chapman trade. Every other trade I feel like we came out on top, except for Cueto, but for different reasons (We should have given him Homer's contract + more!!!). Do you see any players on that list that you believe would still be on the team today and/or would have made this team immediately better (like playoff worthy) in the year or two after they were traded? Because I don't. Maybe I'm just a homer (but not a Bailey).

[guyofthetiger]

Thanks for the review of recent trades. I agree the Chapman trade was bad. Whatever the Reds decide to do this year, we could keep most of the position players and deal for some pitching prospects. I would think the Reds would deal Harvey and maybe Hughes for some additional pitching.

[Hoofhearted]

(07-09-2018, 02:01 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: With the exception of Johnny Cueto and Aroldis Chapman (and arguably Todd Frazier) I feel like the trades we've done have, almost across the board, improved our team in a way that keeping those players couldn't have possibly resulted in.

In 2014, they flipped Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon into Anthony Desclefani and Eugenio Suarez, both of which were absolute steals, especially considering what Latos and Simon did from that point on (neither player had an ERA below 4.89 since the day we traded them, or racked up even a single WAR).

Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake they traded at the deadline in 2015 and got, really, a pretty decent package with Finnegan and Reed and Duvall and Mella coming back, respectively. 

For the Cueto trade, neither has panned out thus far, but both were considered high quality prospects. And this was done when Cueto was purely a rental. They knew they weren't going to re-sign him at the end of the year (although I disagree with that logic in principal, especially with Homer being inked for a ludicrous deal earlier that year.)

Leake was also a rental trade and brought in an every day LF (though one we will admittedly have to eventually replace, despite his excellent defense and power, due to batting avg woes) as well as a potential impact relief pitcher in a year or two. Neither of these trades blew the roof off the stadium in terms of value, but both players were going to sign to the highest bidder in the winter anyway, so it's not like we were losing all that much.

Todd Frazier they could have sold high on him at the deadline of 2015 and gotten a pretty massive haul (he had a very weak second half of the season to degrade his value a bit), but we still got Peraza and Schebler for that trade, two of today's starters who are both showing promise. Looking at what Frazier is doing right now, I don't think you can make an argument that Frazier's 2016 and 2017 seasons would have helped the Reds at all (he hit .220/.308/.454/.763 in those two years). 

The Aroldis Chapman trade was probably the worst trade in recent Reds history, as we got essentially nothing for a top tier reliever that, later that summer, netted the Yankees a top 5 prospect in Gleybor Torres. An overreaction to that gun charge. I mean...this one still stings. But, again, a rental trade that they had no intention of re-signing, so it was more so what they lost in potential trade value rather than losing the player himself.

They turned Jay Bruce, a rental inexplicably having a career year with prospects waiting behind him into a former top 50 prospect who has played very well at AAA this season and was just called up to the majors in Dilson Herrera. He has .300 hitting potential from an infield position which is always valuable and hopefully will be starting soon if we do indeed trade Gennett.

They converted Dan Straily, a waiver claim that was seen as a nobody into a potential ace that showed great potential last year and is starting to get back to form this year in Luis Castillo.

Brandon Phillips was a weird trade but his time in the majors was done anyway, as much as I know everyone hated to see him go... (as he has not made a major league team this season).

And then finally trading Floro for Marinan, while it sucks to see a quality bullpen arm like Floro go, he was another buy low sell high prospect who offers us nothing as we're rebuilding.

Honestly, going back over our trades in this recent era, the only one I actually cringe at is the Aroldis Chapman trade. Every other trade I feel like we came out on top, except for Cueto, but for different reasons (We should have given him Homer's contract + more!!!). Do you see any players on that list that you believe would still be on the team today and/or would have made this team immediately better (like playoff worthy) in the year or two after they were traded? Because I don't. Maybe I'm just a homer (but not a Bailey).

A+ analysis. Only thing I'll add is that they were facing those gun charges, and at that moment, they thought his suspension would be much longer than it was. Plus, they were dealing from no leverage what-so-ever. But yeah, extremely bad trade either way. I also think they waited a year to long to start the rebuild, which resulted in it taking longer than usual because of the lack of return value once the firesale started. More prospects = higher chance of hitting on one. 

Good thing is they are starting to draft really good players recently, so if we can keep that going and develop them this team will be good in next one to two years. 

[Hoofhearted]

Matt Harvey
Iglesias
Scooter

That's my list. You sell on those guys and get a really nice package back, especially Scooter. I love Scooter, but I highly doubt he'll keep this level of production when they are starting to become a contender. Plus you can target more SP, which we need. Second base is deep, etc, etc. Nail next years draft, and you got a really solid farm system and ML team. But they are a good starting pitcher or two away from being a contender IMO. And they have to address CF as well (maybe Trammell can fill that void?)

[grampahol]

The thing about Scooter that really can't be overlooked is he's a local kid and puts butts in seats which for a small market team is huge. It's tough to trade away fans in the stands who are a big part of how big contracts are paid although not the only way.  He obviously wants to stay and plenty of fans want him to stay.
I'm not sure Harvey wants to leave either. I'm pretty sure he had a belly full of the NY media .

[Yojimbo]

I’m

(07-18-2018, 02:49 PM)grampahol Wrote: The thing about Scooter that really can't be overlooked is he's a local kid and puts butts in seats which for a small market team is huge. It's tough to trade away fans in the stands who are a big part of how big contracts are paid although not the only way.  He obviously wants to stay and plenty of fans want him to stay.
I'm not sure Harvey wants to leave either. I'm pretty sure he had a belly full of the NY media .

Winning puts more butts in the seats than having a local guy. If trading Scooter gets us to winning, then attendance will go up.

[grampahol]

Part of having a great trade means that someone else has to A. Want who you want to trade and B. Have someone better in return. Otherwise you're just trading flesh for flesh.
It seems like every other fan thinks any team should be  able to trade away anyone at any time and get the moon, stars and the sun in return. Right now Scooter has 1 thing to offer in a potential trade, batting average (and some power), but he's not so hot defensively. 
Think about how another team might view obtaining Scooter in a trade. He's lousy defensively and has a sore shoulder. What's a .325 batting average with a sore shoulder and lousy defense worth to you if you have to give up a solid starting pitcher?  Not much I would think .  Bottom line is just because you want to make a trade doesn't necessarily mean you can or even should. Trades don't happen in a vacuum. I'd like to trade my old truck for a brand new Ferrari..  Dammit! What's wrong with all the Ferrari dealers?

[guyofthetiger]

I have not heard any rumblings about Reds trades yet. Maybe Harvey. Do we become sellers or hold pat for next year? I'm gearing towards the camp to keep Gennett and Hamilton. I think we have pieces to win.

[*bengalfan74*]

Well Harvey didn't get traded, I'm fairly shocked. Many said they weren't getting offered much and I don't doubt it. Harvey probably only rates as a number 4 or 5 pitcher in a lot of rotations. And not many are willing to bet the bank he can return to a 2 or 3 like he was.

But most feel he will still be shopped heavily:

https://nypost.com/2018/07/31/the-reds-arent-done-trying-to-trade-matt-harvey/