Tier 3 QB

[PikesPeakUC]

(08-14-2018, 12:51 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Dalton can't win people over if that's the perception. If the line (and run game) are solid and Dalton balls out, it'll be "cuz teammates". 

Hardly seems fair. How many times has a QB willed a crap team to a championship? 

If you get that far, the team is usually stacked.

What's left to win over? Dalton pretty much is what he is at this point. I don't think he'll ever be a top tier guy. The ones who are believers will believe, the ones who don't, won't. No one at this point is going to suddenly find religion when it comes to Dalton one way or the other.

His best yardage situation he finished with 18 TD's and 8 INT's. 

His best efficiency year he finished with 25 TD's and 7 INT's. 

I think we kind of all know what Dalton is. He's an average to above average QB. He's never going to be a top level guy, and that's perfectly fine. The offensive line has been bad recently, and besides Green, he hasn't had a ton of talent at WR. There's a number of factors working against him, but if you're asking me if we've seen the best of Dalton, I would unfortunately have to say yes. 

I think there's a small group of QB's who can win with average to below average talent surrounding them. I just don't think Dalton is one of those guys, and it probably ends up being one of those unanswerable questions that we sit around and wonder about down the road. If he doesn't get hurt, what happens to the 2015 Bengals and how does it change Dalton's perception? 

[fredtoast]

(08-14-2018, 09:55 PM)PikesPeakUC Wrote: I think we kind of all know what Dalton is. He's an average to above average QB. He's never going to be a top level guy,

I disagree.  Dalton has shown he has a vey high ceiling.  Only 6 active QBs have had a better passer rating that Dalton's best (106.2) for a season.  Since he came in the league in 2011 only 7 QBs have more games with a 125+ passer rating.  Dalton is not a middle of the pack QB with a low ceiling.  Instead he is a guy with a very high ceiling but who struggles with consistency.  For example, while he is 7th in games with a 125+ passer rating he is also 7th in most games with a sub 60 rating.  

Also, over the last decade only 5 QBs have had a season with more than one game with a sub 30 passer rating.  Four of those five recorded a passer rating in the 60's for the season.  The 5th one was Dalton last year who finished with a decent 86.6 rating.  In the 14 games other than the two sub 30 performances Dalton's rating was 94.6 which would have ranked 11th in the league.  That should not happen.  A QB good enough to rank in the top 11 for 14 starts should not have two other starts with a sub 30 rating.

(08-14-2018, 09:55 PM)PikesPeakUC Wrote: if you're asking me if we've seen the best of Dalton, I would unfortunately have to say yes. 

Why?  Did you see a physical decline in Dalton last year?

[Shake n Blake]

(08-14-2018, 09:55 PM)PikesPeakUC Wrote: What's left to win over? Dalton pretty much is what he is at this point. I don't think he'll ever be a top tier guy. The ones who are believers will believe, the ones who don't, won't. No one at this point is going to suddenly find religion when it comes to Dalton one way or the other.

His best yardage situation he finished with 18 TD's and 8 INT's. 

His best efficiency year he finished with 25 TD's and 7 INT's. 

I think we kind of all know what Dalton is. He's an average to above average QB. He's never going to be a top level guy, and that's perfectly fine. The offensive line has been bad recently, and besides Green, he hasn't had a ton of talent at WR. There's a number of factors working against him, but if you're asking me if we've seen the best of Dalton, I would unfortunately have to say yes. 

I think there's a small group of QB's who can win with average to below average talent surrounding them. I just don't think Dalton is one of those guys, and it probably ends up being one of those unanswerable questions that we sit around and wonder about down the road. If he doesn't get hurt, what happens to the 2015 Bengals and how does it change Dalton's perception? 

His best yardage season, he finished with 33 TD's and 20 INT's
His best efficiency year, he was on pace for 33 TD's and 9 INT's (he missed essentially 4 games, so pointing out the TD total is misleading)

So his ceiling is 4k yards with 30+ TDs and a rating over 100? I'd say that's pretty good. Not saying he's elite, but he's capable of having an MVP caliber season if the team is good.

You seem to be walking it back from "good QB's can elevate a bad team to a championship" to "good QB's can 'win' without a stellar cast". I'd argue that Dalton has already done that. His weapons were pretty poor in 2012 and 2014, and we won 10 games both years. Is he going to take turds to the Super Bowl? No...but no QB does that.

[CornerBlitz]

i gave Dalton the credit he deserved in the 12 games in 2015. Outside of that he has been up and down. I just hope fans are willing to look at a change at QB if he doesn't produce this season.....frankly we've tried it with this guy for 8 years and haven't won a playoff game and in the playoffs he's been a complete and utter bum.

If on the other hand he does play well and looks like he did in 2015 then I'm all for keeping him. I don't see what is unreasonable about this approach.

[fredtoast]

(08-16-2018, 03:00 AM)CornerBlitz Wrote: .frankly we've tried it with this guy for 8 years and haven't won a playoff game and in the playoffs he's been a complete and utter bum.

Then we are going to have to get rid of AJ Green and Geno Atkins also.

[PikesPeakUC]

(08-15-2018, 01:13 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: His best yardage season, he finished with 33 TD's and 20 INT's
His best efficiency year, he was on pace for 33 TD's and 9 INT's (he missed essentially 4 games, so pointing out the TD total is misleading)

So his ceiling is 4k yards with 30+ TDs and a rating over 100? I'd say that's pretty good. Not saying he's elite, but he's capable of having an MVP caliber season if the team is good.

You seem to be walking it back from "good QB's can elevate a bad team to a championship" to "good QB's can 'win' without a stellar cast". I'd argue that Dalton has already done that. His weapons were pretty poor in 2012 and 2014, and we won 10 games both years. Is he going to take turds to the Super Bowl? No...but no QB does that.

Let me know where I said that a Good QB can elevate a bad team to a championship. I'll wait! 

Like I said, Andy Dalton is a fine Quarterback. I'm sure there are several teams who would like to have him on their team. I just don't think the Bengals will ever win a Super Bowl with him, and so far, they've yet to even win a playoff game during this era. 

[PikesPeakUC]

(08-15-2018, 11:37 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I disagree.  Dalton has shown he has a vey high ceiling.  Only 6 active QBs have had a better passer rating that Dalton's best (106.2) for a season.  Since he came in the league in 2011 only 7 QBs have more games with a 125+ passer rating.  Dalton is not a middle of the pack QB with a low ceiling.  Instead he is a guy with a very high ceiling but who struggles with consistency.  For example, while he is 7th in games with a 125+ passer rating he is also 7th in most games with a sub 60 rating.  

Also, over the last decade only 5 QBs have had a season with more than one game with a sub 30 passer rating.  Four of those five recorded a passer rating in the 60's for the season.  The 5th one was Dalton last year who finished with a decent 86.6 rating.  In the 14 games other than the two sub 30 performances Dalton's rating was 94.6 which would have ranked 11th in the league.  That should not happen.  A QB good enough to rank in the top 11 for 14 starts should not have two other starts with a sub 30 rating.




Why?  Did you see a physical decline in Dalton last year?

I just don't think he's going to get better, and unfortunately his weapons have either been injured or haven't performed. Again, a lot of it isn't his fault, and I was a big Dalton fan when we drafted him out of TCU. I would love to be wrong to him, but he seems like one of those guys who for whatever reason just can't get over the hump. 

Believe me, I want Dalton to be the guy that takes this team deep in the playoffs. He's a class act who represents a team that has had a rough time with bad reputation guys in the past. 

Maybe I'm wrong. It wouldn't be the first or last time. I hope I'm eating crow this postseason about it. 

[*bfine32*]

(08-16-2018, 02:14 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Then we are going to have to get rid of AJ Green and Geno Atkins also.

AJ's best playoff game was 2015. He had 5 catches on only 8 targets for 71 yards and a TD.

I wonder what lead to that being his best game. I'm sure something was different; I just cannot put my finger on it. Can anyone help me out? 

[Brownshoe]

(08-18-2018, 12:47 PM)bfine32 Wrote: AJ's best playoff game was 2015. He had 5 catches on only 8 targets for 71 yards and a TD.

I wonder what lead to that being his best game. I'm sure something was different; I just cannot put my finger on it. Can anyone help me out? 

Maybe because he was playing one of the worst secondaries in the league?

[*bfine32*]

(08-18-2018, 02:00 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Maybe because he was playing one of the worst secondaries in the league?

Nah, that's not it. In 2013 we played the Chargers; they were 29th in League in passing defense. AJ only got about 30 yards and only 3 catches on 9 targets. 

It'll come to me. But thanks for trying to help. 

[wolfkaosaun]

Outside of the top 8 quarterbacks (Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, Ryan, Brees, Ben, Wentz, Rivers) you can actually make arguments for the next 12 quarterbacks on where you would place them.

[fredtoast]

(08-18-2018, 12:47 PM)bfine32 Wrote: AJ's best playoff game was 2015. He had 5 catches on only 8 targets for 71 yards and a TD.

I wonder what lead to that being his best game. I'm sure something was different; I just cannot put my finger on it. Can anyone help me out? 

Same reason he had the fewest targets in any of his playoff games.  He had more talented receing talent around him than in any other playoff game.

[*bfine32*]

(08-18-2018, 04:41 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Same reason he had the fewest targets in any of his playoff games.  He had more talented receing talent around him than in any other playoff game.

That's an interest theory but it really doesn't make much sense. "He had his best game because he was targeted less". Also only 1 fewer targets than that 34 yard performance against SD, with pretty much the exact same receiving corps. So targets cannot be it.

I still think it's something else and I do appreciate you and shoe trying to help me figure out what it is. It seems so obvious but I just cannot think of what was different. We're gonna feel foolish when someone comes up with it. Seems like we're trying too hard to find the answer; when it's actually right under our noses.

[HuDey]

(08-18-2018, 12:47 PM)bfine32 Wrote: AJ's best playoff game was 2015. He had 5 catches on only 8 targets for 71 yards and a TD.

I wonder what lead to that being his best game. I'm sure something was different; I just cannot put my finger on it. Can anyone help me out? 

Was it due to the perfect playing conditions???

Or were they playing against a defense that hadn’t faced Green before?

[*bfine32*]

(08-18-2018, 09:45 PM)HuDey Wrote: Was it due to the perfect playing conditions???

Or were they playing against a defense that hadn’t faced Green before?

Nah, the weather was kind of crappy and it was our 3rd game against the Steelers. 

I'm sure if we all put our heads together (me, you, shoe, Fred) we can figure out what was different. 

[*bfine32*]

Does anyone have any insight to which color jersey AJ wore in the games? Maybe that could be it.

[Shake n Blake]

(08-17-2018, 11:43 PM)PikesPeakUC Wrote: Let me know where I said that a Good QB can elevate a bad team to a championship. I'll wait! 

Like I said, Andy Dalton is a fine Quarterback. I'm sure there are several teams who would like to have him on their team. I just don't think the Bengals will ever win a Super Bowl with him, and so far, they've yet to even win a playoff game during this era. 

I misread your post. Apologies.  :andy:

As for the not winning a playoff game stuff, I see that other QB's are 0-3 under Marv and see a Marv problem.

(08-18-2018, 02:36 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Nah, that's not it. In 2013 we played the Chargers; they were 29th in League in passing defense. AJ only got about 30 yards and only 3 catches on 9 targets. 

It'll come to me. But thanks for trying to help. 

Marvin Jones went for 8 catches and 130 yards on 12 targets vs the Chargers.
He went for 4 catches for 32 yards on 7 targets vs the Steelers.

Guess what the difference was in those games? 

[CornerBlitz]

Everyone knows that Andy Dalton is one of the worst playoff performing QBs who's had multiple starts in NFL history. I don't understand why you guys can't seem to even acknowledge this. It is a fact there is nothing subjective about it.

Saw the pre season game yesterday and just loved how he overthrew AJ by a few yards on multiple occasions as he was running wide open for big gains to move the chains. I remember specifically him doing the same thing which could have actually won a playoff game for us. Ohh well at least he's a good guy who likes being a Bengal!

[*bfine32*]

(08-19-2018, 01:17 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Marvin Jones went for 8 catches and 130 yards on 12 targets vs the Chargers.
He went for 4 catches for 32 yards on 7 targets vs the Steelers.

Guess what the difference was in those games? 

We've got to figure these things out one at a time. Do you have an answer  as to why AJ had his best career playoff game in 2015?  A few of the fellas have given their theory, but I think we are missing something totally obvious. I only brought it up because Fred commented about how bad AJ has been in the playoffs. Don't you think it'd be good if we could find out why and not worry about Marvin Jones? 

[Shake n Blake]

(08-19-2018, 11:52 AM)bfine32 Wrote: We've got to figure these things out one at a time. Do you have an answer  as to why AJ had his best career playoff game in 2015?  A few of the fellas have given their theory, but I think we are missing something totally obvious. I only brought it up because Fred commented about how bad AJ has been in the playoffs. Don't you think it'd be good if we could find out why and not worry about Marvin Jones? 

Sorry, you seemed to be implying that a certain QB was holding AJ back. So I just have to wonder why an inferior WR didn't have the same issue.