Reds 5 big questions ?

[*bengalfan74*]

https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/5-questions-for-the-reds-in-the-offseason/c-296735754

1. Who is gonna be the Mgr. ?

I heard Marty on the radio a couple days ago saying it looked like John Farrell had the inside track.

2. Can the Reds improve their starting pitching ?

I don't think the Reds can afford to not improve their starting pitching. They have to make a real effort ! They can't just sign a couple
journeymen. Williams said the Reds are in a position to spend significantly more money this offseason.

3.Will B. Hamilton be moved ?

I'm still kinda sorta on the fence about this, it's hard for me to believe he can;t learn to bunt and be a contact hitter. If they do move him I
hope they get something in return. And I won't be heartbroken.

4. When will Nick Senzel be ready ?

Can he go to the outfield ?

5. Will Scooter Gennett get a multi year contract ?

I hope so, yes he's not BP on defense but you gotta love his bat and heart.

My 6th. Will the Reds give Bailey his walking papers ?

I don't see how they can bring him back without a fan mutiny.

[CJD]

(10-01-2018, 11:25 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/5-questions-for-the-reds-in-the-offseason/c-296735754

1. Who is gonna be the Mgr. ?

I heard Marty on the radio a couple days ago saying it looked like John Farrell had the inside track.

2. Can the Reds improve their starting pitching ?

I don't think the Reds can afford to not improve their starting pitching. They have to make a real effort ! They can't just sign a couple
journeymen. Williams said the Reds are in a position to spend significantly more money this offseason.

3.Will B. Hamilton be moved ?

I'm still kinda sorta on the fence about this, it's hard for me to believe he can;t learn to bunt and be a contact hitter. If they do move him I
hope they get something in return. And I won't be heartbroken.

4. When will Nick Senzel be ready ?

Can he go to the outfield ?

5. Will Scooter Gennett get a multi year contract ?

I hope so, yes he's not BP on defense but you gotta love his bat and heart.

My 6th. Will the Reds give Bailey his walking papers ?

I don't see how they can bring him back without a fan mutiny.

1. I've also heard that Farrell has the inside track. I'll repeat what I said after we hired Price:

I wish this organization would actually look outside itself on occasion. Just like your whole starting rotation is not just sitting in the minors, the manager is not currently an assistant on your coaching staff... They hired him to be a scout in March of this year. If they wanted him as their manager, they should have just brought him on right then. Because we all knew Price was not getting out of this season. And then, after Price was fired...why not make Farrell the manager then? Why go to Riggleman?

This seems very much the owner was like "okay, what's around? Oh hey John. Wanna be our new manager? Okay, cool. Glad that's done. A search well managed..."

2. I think Castillo is worth keeping. Mahle and Lorenzen are worth keeping as a 4th and maybe 5th option. That means we have a #1 and a #2 to fill on this starting rotation. I don't think it's acceptable to have Mahle or Lorenzen as a #3 or higher pitcher in this rotation. They desperately need to actually give a **** and sign someone in the off season with 3.50 ERA potential, if not 2. The problem is those players are expensive as hell. I don't think there is a single starter among Stephenson, Romano, Reed, Disco and Garrett. Maybe we get lucky and one of those guys becomes serviceable, but relying on them would be a huge mistake. I know Gutierrez and Santillan are in the minors and have looked very good the last few years. But they'd be rookies and you can't expect a rookie to be a #3 or higher pitcher. We need to go and sign the equivalent of a Jon Lester-esque deal (6 year 155 million back in 2015). I'd target Dallas Keuchel and Patrick Corbin. There are a lot of older pitchers out there as well that we may be able to sign for relatively cheaper, but I think we need to get one of the younger players that we can have on the top of our rotation for the next 4 to 6 years (like Keuchel and Corbin).

Do I think the Reds will? No. Not at all. But it's what they'll need to do if they want to compete next year. And, if that's not the goal in 2019, then I frankly don't even give a shit about this team anymore.

3. God I hope so. Hamilton is a waste of Batting Appearances. I'd trade him for a bag of chips, to be honest. I was so excited when he was claimed on waivers, only for the Reds to retract him...

4. All indications are that Senzel will be ready to be a starter on this team somewhere out of Spring Training next season. I don't know where he'll end up. I'm hoping Center Field (after we get rid of our current center fielder). I dunno where else he fits other than the outfield. You're not taking Scooter, Suarez or Peraza out of the lineup when your biggest weaknesses offensively sit in the outfield. I would like to see them go with Schebler or Senzel in Center with Winker and the other in the corners. My starting lineup would be:

1. Schebler/Winker
2. Peraza
3. Votto
4. Suarez
5. Gennett
6. Winker/Schebler
7. Senzel
8. Barnhart
9. Pitcher slot

Tell me that lineup does not look incredibly appealing. Having a hitter as talented as Senzel in the 7 slot really is a testament to the potential this offense has.


5. Well, they didn't trade him when he was leading the NL in batting average...So they damn well better sign him to a long term contract. Otherwise, what was this all for?

And please, God, let us be rid of Bailey. I know his whole contract is guaranteed so there's no saving money by cutting him like in the NFL. But by that same logic, you're not losing any money by cutting him either. He has already proven that he is not worthy of being on a baseball field anymore, so why even keep him around? He's a literal waste of a roster spot.

[Hoofhearted]

(10-01-2018, 11:25 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/5-questions-for-the-reds-in-the-offseason/c-296735754

1. Who is gonna be the Mgr. ?

Doesn't really matter besides the process they do. If they cast a wide net and try their best not to hire internally, I don't really care.

2. Can the Reds improve their starting pitching ?

Yes, but I am one of the few that think they should really try to avoid it honestly (by avoid I mean no Homer bailey contracts, please). Sign or trade for some prospects, but I am passing on the high $ pitching.

This team is still 2-3 years away from competing. 

3.Will B. Hamilton be moved ?

Will or should?

Will he? No. Because they've already made little leaks around keeping him (moving Senzel to LF).

Should they? Hell yes. Hell to-the-YES.

4. When will Nick Senzel be ready ?

I think they'll delay his arrival IMO, but will not be surprised at all if they keep him.

5. Will Scooter Gennett get a multi year contract ?

Another will or should.

Will they? Yes, because they love that he's a local kid with a cool story.

Should they? No. No they shouldn't. They need to move him and get more prospects/picks.

My 6th. Will the Reds give Bailey his walking papers ?

Tough one. I think they do only because I don't think they like eating THAT much money. Ton of money to pay him to sit at home, especially seeing as again I really don't think this team is that close to winning in this division. They're a few years away at least.

[*bengalfan74*]

Agree with most of what you say.

They absolutely have to release, cut, fire, trade, or whatever term I'm missing one H. Bailey and take their lumps and move on.

You hear arguments saying the Reds don't have the money to fix the pitching staff and I get it, they're not the Yankees. But, it makes zero sense to retain the bulk of the position players and start next season with this same pitching staff and a couple used up has been journeymen !

Beg, borrow, steal, trade away some prospects, do whatever it takes to get a couple 3.5 and under ERA starters in here.

Or it's all a waste

[Hoofhearted]

(10-02-2018, 02:30 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Agree with most of what you say.

They absolutely have to release, cut, fire, trade, or whatever term I'm missing one H. Bailey and take their lumps and move on.

You hear arguments saying the Reds don't have the money to fix the pitching staff and I get it, they're not the Yankees. But, it makes zero sense to retain the bulk of the position players and start next season with this same pitching staff and a couple used up has been journeymen !

Beg, borrow, steal, trade away some prospects, do whatever it takes to get a couple 3.5 and under ERA starters in here.

Or it's all a waste

Look at where the Brew crew is at now.
2018:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2018.shtml
2015:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2015.shtml

2015 they had a similar record as the Reds. 2018 they have one sub 3.5 ERA. You really don't need a team full of Aces, but you need them to have control and make batters earn it. So I don't see a need to go out and spend big $ on a FA. Most of our pitchers are still less than 30 and some are under 25. It takes pitchers a while to get a feel for the game

[Hoofhearted]

(10-01-2018, 11:25 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: 3.Will B. Hamilton be moved ?

I'm still kinda sorta on the fence about this, it's hard for me to believe he can;t learn to bunt and be a contact hitter. If they do move him I
hope they get something in return. And I won't be heartbroken.

Kinda/sorta off-topic, but ran across this article over at Cincy.com, adn this quote from Billy caught my attention:

Quote:I know I need a break from the game mentally and physically, but I feel like I didn't train enough in the offseason to get better as a player. I can admit that. I'm not going to let that happen this year. 

[*bengalfan74*]

(10-03-2018, 02:21 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: Kinda/sorta off-topic, but ran across this article over at Cincy.com, adn this quote from Billy caught my attention:

If BH could just hit .285, learn how to bunt, settle down and quit being such a free swinger and get some walks. He would be a giant weapon ! His OBP would jump way up his stolen bases would be back where they should be and so on.

Can he actually do it ? 

[CJD]

(10-02-2018, 05:39 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: Look at where the Brew crew is at now.
2018:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2018.shtml
2015:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2015.shtml

2015 they had a similar record as the Reds. 2018 they have one sub 3.5 ERA. You really don't need a team full of Aces, but you need them to have control and make batters earn it. So I don't see a need to go out and spend big $ on a FA. Most of our pitchers are still less than 30 and some are under 25. It takes pitchers a while to get a feel for the game

I feel like we were saying this last off season though "Look at Mahle and Castillo! Not to mention Stephenson, Reed, Romano and Garrett! And Bailey will be back too! We have plenty of options. Almost too many!"

How long do we want to live in this limbo waiting for good players or average players to suddenly become great?

[Hoofhearted]

(10-03-2018, 07:42 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I feel like we were saying this last off season though "Look at Mahle and Castillo! Not to mention Stephenson, Reed, Romano and Garrett! And Bailey will be back too! We have plenty of options. Almost too many!"

How long do we want to live in this limbo waiting for good players or average players to suddenly become great?

I don't have a good answer for that. I know we have three decent pitchers that can be apart of a good SP group: Castillo, Mahle, and to lesser extent Sal. So roughly half of your SP group for next run is in place, but like bengalsfan has said, we really don't have an ace. And really would like to have another good, young arm be apart of that, too. That leaves one big SP contract you can probably squeeze in there to help round it out. 

But they have one already with Homer. We don't know a) who's available on the FA market who wants to pitch for us, b)how much he will cost. Quick look at the available FA pitchers next year, there's some good names...but none of them linked to wanting to come play for us.


Patrick Corbin (29 years old, 5.7 WAR) - wants to be a yankee
Dallas Keuchel (31, 3.4) - probably stays with Astros
Clayton Kershaw (31, 3.2) -- Can opt out of the two years and $65 million remaining on his contract. - 

Charlie Morton (35, 2.9) - a middle aged pitcher? pass
David Price (33, 2.5) -- Can opt out of the four years and $127 million remaining on his contract. - why the f*ck would he do this?
J.A. Happ (36, 2.5) - he's like 40
CC Sabathia (38, 2.2) - he's like 50
Lance Lynn (32, 2.2)
Trevor Cahill (31, 2.1)
Derek Holland (32, 1.9)
Clay Buchholz (34, 1.7)
Anibal Sanchez (35, 1.6)
Nathan Eovaldi (29, 1.5) 
Gio Gonzalez (33, 1.4)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (32, 1.2)
Matt Harvey (30, 1.1) 
Jeremy Hellickson (32, 1.1)
Wade Miley (32, 1.0)
Garrett Richards (32, 1.0)
Tyson Ross (32, 1.0)
Brett Anderson (31, 0.8)
Edwin Jackson (35, 0.8)
Marco Estrada (35, 0.5)
Bartolo Colon (46, 0.2)
Jaime Garcia (32, 0.0)
Adam Wainwright (37, 0.0)
Drew Pomeranz (30, -0.3)
Miguel Gonzalez (35, -0.3)
Francisco Liriano (35, -0.4)
Chris Tillman (31, -0.4)
Hisashi Iwakuma (35, N/A) -- Hasn't appeared in the Majors in 2018.


So who on this list is your "ace" that takes this team to the next level? I don't see any of these pitchers taking this team from 66 to 90 wins (which is what they've been consistently good at achieving). I don't see it out there for what fits our window of a few years away. So next is trading, which is almost impossible to do really because I am not that up to beat with all the other teams needs. But I can only assume it would take a haul and a half to get a quality hurler. Something like Senzel/Green/Trammel involved. That depletes what looks like a pretty good offensive team they're building. They've really hurt themselves with developing quality pitchers. They need to focus on that first IMO

[Hoofhearted]

(10-03-2018, 06:24 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: If BH could just hit .285, learn how to bunt, settle down and quit being such a free swinger and get some walks. He would be a giant weapon ! His OBP would jump way up his stolen bases would be back where they should be and so on.

Can he actually do it ? 

No, I don't think he can. He STILL wants to switch hit (that's what she said), which makes 0 sense. Bro, you can't hit right handed well enough why switch hit? He's been in the majors for 6 years with almost 2,500 at bats. 3 months of work will not move the needle enough to warrant keeping him. Maybe he can move it up a tick, but at this point in his career, he is who he is. There's things he can sharpen, but he's not going to all the sudden become some great slap hitter or power hitter. 

[*bengalfan74*]

(10-04-2018, 08:27 AM)Hoofhearted Wrote: No, I don't think he can. He STILL wants to switch hit (that's what she said), which makes 0 sense. Bro, you can't hit right handed well enough why switch hit? He's been in the majors for 6 years with almost 2,500 at bats. 3 months of work will not move the needle enough to warrant keeping him. Maybe he can move it up a tick, but at this point in his career, he is who he is. There's things he can sharpen, but he's not going to all the sudden become some great slap hitter or power hitter. 

I tend to agree, I really don't think he can ! I don't understand why he's so determined to switch hit ? The numbers don't support it. It's a tick slower to first batting righty, it just doesn't add up. What did he say ? Something like there's times when it seems better or something ? When does batting .200 seem better ?

If they could possibly package him and a prospect for an ace I'd pull the trigger.

[Circleville Guy]

Unless they trade for a pitcher, the pickings are slim. I can see them signing two of Lynn, Cahill, Gonzalez and Harvey. None of the guys are a #1 though, they can’t sign a #1 until after the Homer atrocity come off of the books. They will also sign a new manager and hit PR hard, that is gonna equal a .500 or less record at best. The Reds will need new ownership before they will be in the playoffs again.