Defense (Deep-Dive Analysis using PFF Ratings)

[THE PISTONS]

Hello all,

I feel like the Bye Week is a good time for this so I'll start with the defense. If it is well received, I'll do the offense.

I think the ratings show that our defensive line is pretty good. The Linebackers are pretty bad. Our Safeties are good. And our CB's are mediocre...which for having 3 1st Round picks is bad.

DL - DI:
Atkins - 89.2 - High Quality - #11 DI. He was rated as Elite for most of the season. 90+ is elite.
Billings - 73.7 - #27 DI. Ranks as Good. (He's MUCH BETTER than people give him credit for. He's kind of our modern day Peko as people see no sacks and think he's bad.)
Glasgow - Was rated 84.1 which is High Quality - HUGE LOSS.
Hubbard - 53.5 - #101 DI. Ranks as Average. He's had some nice splash plays on the year, but his rating shows he's struggled overall.
Washington - 73.4 in his limited play this season.

DL - ED
Dunlap - 78.5 - Good - #17 Edge
Willis - 62.9 - Above Average - #67 Edge - He's been kind of disappointing this year.
Lawson - 79.3 - #13 ED - HUGE loss losing him for the year. While he didn't get sacks, he got good pressure.
MJ - 54.2 - #99 Edge - He's struggling this year and with the loss of Lawson, MJ will be relied on more. Probably should have moved on from him in the offseason.

LB - Clearly this group of players is struggling and bringing down the overall defense. Really no one on this group looks stellar.
Vigil 69.2 - #23 LB
Evans 57.7 - #53 LB
Burfict 60.7 - Not enough snaps to be rated. He's struggled so far this season. 60.7 is WAY BELOW his standard.
Brown - 52.8 - #65 LB. He's putting up decent tackle stats...but 52.8 is not a good rating overall.
Nickerson 41.8 - #77 LB. Wow...his rating is way below what we need out of him.

CB
Kirkpatrick - 62.3 - #59 CB. He's been ranked higher for most of the year and dropped a lot lately.
Dennard - 61.9 - #62 CB.
Jackson - 64.4 - #52 CB. Really disappointing as he was rated extremely high last season. I guess he's been exposed in full-time play as a starter.
Note: It considers ratings in the 60's as above average, but you figure each team has 2 starters...and if our starters rank in the 50's and 60's...then that's not good.
Phillips - 56.8 in limited play.

Safety
Williams - 63.2 - #57 Safety.
Fej - 91.0 - Not enough snaps to be rated...but 91.0 ranks as Elite. He has the highest rating of any defender on our team. HE NEEDS TO PLAY MORE!
Bates - 83.8 - #4 Safety - High Quality.

[Circleville Guy]

(11-03-2018, 11:38 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Hello all,

I feel like the Bye Week is a good time for this so I'll start with the defense. If it is well received, I'll do the offense.

I think the ratings show that our defensive line is pretty good. The Linebackers are pretty bad. Our Safeties are good. And our CB's are mediocre...which for having 3 1st Round picks is bad.

DL - DI:
Atkins - 89.2 - High Quality - #11 DI. He was rated as Elite for most of the season. 90+ is elite.
Billings - 73.7 - #27 DI. Ranks as Good. (He's MUCH BETTER than people give him credit for. He's kind of our modern day Peko as people see no sacks and think he's bad.)
Glasgow - Was rated 84.1 which is High Quality - HUGE LOSS.
Hubbard - 53.5 - #101 DI. Ranks as Average. He's had some nice splash plays on the year, but his rating shows he's struggled overall.
Washington - 73.4 in his limited play this season.

DL - ED
Dunlap - 78.5 - Good - #17 Edge
Willis - 62.9 - Above Average - #67 Edge - He's been kind of disappointing this year.
Lawson - 79.3 - #13 ED - HUGE loss losing him for the year. While he didn't get sacks, he got good pressure.
MJ - 54.2 - #99 Edge - He's struggling this year and with the loss of Lawson, MJ will be relied on more. Probably should have moved on from him in the offseason.

LB - Clearly this group of players is struggling and bringing down the overall defense. Really no one on this group looks stellar.
Vigil 69.2 - #23 LB
Evans 57.7 - #53 LB
Burfict 60.7 - Not enough snaps to be rated. He's struggled so far this season. 60.7 is WAY BELOW his standard.
Brown - 52.8 - #65 LB. He's putting up decent tackle stats...but 52.8 is not a good rating overall.
Nickerson 41.8 - #77 LB. Wow...his rating is way below what we need out of him.

CB
Kirkpatrick - 62.3 - #59 CB. He's been ranked higher for most of the year and dropped a lot lately.
Dennard - 61.9 - #62 CB.
Jackson - 64.4 - #52 CB. Really disappointing as he was rated extremely high last season. I guess he's been exposed in full-time play as a starter.
Note: It considers ratings in the 60's as above average, but you figure each team has 2 starters...and if our starters rank in the 50's and 60's...then that's not good.
Phillips - 56.8 in limited play.

Safety
Williams - 63.2 - #57 Safety.
Fej - 91.0 - Not enough snaps to be rated...but 91.0 ranks as Elite. He has the highest rating of any defender on our team. HE NEEDS TO PLAY MORE!
Bates - 83.8 - #4 Safety - High Quality.

Glasgow, Lawson and Vigil were big losses. I don’t have much to say but wanted to thank you for adding this, I love reading this kinda stuff.

[hollodero]

OK, overall that seems to show what many thought anyway. I just have one minor question.

(11-03-2018, 11:38 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Fej - 91.0 - Not enough snaps to be rated...but 91.0 ranks as Elite. He has the highest rating of any defender on our team. HE NEEDS TO PLAY MORE!

So 91.0 and not enough snaps to be rated... so why is he rated? My question is a bit less dull than that, I see him having not much playtime and he also had that one huge play - that probably contributes to that rating in a pretty overproportional manner. I don't know how PFF rates, but using that elite tag seems grossly distorted.

[THE PISTONS]

(11-03-2018, 11:59 PM)hollodero Wrote: OK, overall that seems to show what many thought anyway. I just have one minor question.


So 91.0 and not enough snaps to be rated... so why is he rated? My question is a bit less dull than that, I see him having not much playtime and he also had that one huge play - that probably contributes to that rating in a pretty overproportional manner. I don't know how PFF rates, but using that elite tag seems grossly distorted.

Not enough snaps to be rated at the position...say #3 among safeties.

Kinda like in Baseball how you have a batting average, but not enough at bats to qualify for the batting title.

Interestingly his big play was early in the year. His rating has continued to be high the whole season. Other Bengals ratings have generally fallen.

[SunsetBengal]

(11-03-2018, 11:59 PM)hollodero Wrote: OK, overall that seems to show what many thought anyway. I just have one minor question.


So 91.0 and not enough snaps to be rated... so why is he rated? My question is a bit less dull than that, I see him having not much playtime and he also had that one huge play - that probably contributes to that rating in a pretty overproportional manner. I don't know how PFF rates, but using that elite tag seems grossly distorted.

The 91 rating is just how his performance has been graded from the plays that he's been on the field.  The part about not being ranked, is because there is a minimum percentage of snaps, in order to be included in overall rankings.  In other words, it avoids having spot players that do well from skewing the overall rankings of players that see significant action. (outliers)

[Nicomo Cosca]

Not going to argue too much with any of those ratings, but I think Dunlap should be higher. He’s on pace for 14 sacks, and has been more consistent than Geno, imo.

[SunsetBengal]

Well, being strictly based on our 2nd round pick, Bates - 83.8 - #4 Safety - High Quality. I'm going to make a strong suggestion that the Bengals start trading all of their 1st round picks for 2nd round picks, as Jesse and Joe are doing well and John Ross and Billy Price continue to be injured, and not available for service.

That seems to be a trend. Just look at Jackson, Dennard, Kirkpatrick, Eifert, Andre Smith...

[Circleville Guy]

(11-04-2018, 12:12 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Not going to argue too much with any of those ratings, but I think Dunlap should be higher. He’s on pace for 14 sacks, and has been more consistent than Geno, imo.

I don’t know how their grades work, Geno May very well get points for when he’s double teamed too.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-04-2018, 12:18 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Well, being strictly based on our 2nd round pick, Bates - 83.8 - #4 Safety - High Quality. I'm going to make a strong suggestion that the Bengals start trading all of their 1st round picks for 2nd round picks, as Jesse and Joe are doing well and John Ross and Billy Price continue to be injured, and not available for service.

That seems to be a trend. Just look at Jackson, Dennard, Kirkpatrick, Eifert, Andre Smith...

We seem to really crush it in the 2nd rd...

Bates
Mixon
Boyd
Gio
Dalton
Dunlap

Fisher has really been our only miss in recent years.

[THE PISTONS]

(11-04-2018, 12:18 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Well, being strictly based on our 2nd round pick, Bates - 83.8 - #4 Safety - High Quality.  I'm going to make a strong suggestion that the Bengals start trading all of their 1st round picks for 2nd round picks, as Jesse and Joe are doing well and John Ross and Billy Price continue to be injured, and not available for service.

That seems to be a trend.  Just look at Jackson, Dennard, Kirkpatrick, Eifert, Andre Smith...

That is an interesting observation.

They've even drafted guys in the 1st Round coming off of major injuries like Ross, Ced, and Price. There are definitely some teams that would not do that.

In the 2nd Round...they seem to rarely do that. Of course, they did draft that CB Weathersby that was recovering from being shot years ago.

[THE PISTONS]

(11-04-2018, 12:30 AM)Circleville Guy Wrote: I don’t know how their grades work, Geno May very well get points for when he’s double teamed too.

I think, in general fans tend to look for Sacks and Interceptions to see if guys are performing. They also look at Tackles. PFF takes more than that into account.

Geno is double-teamed constantly. Fans that expect him to put up 12+ sacks yearly...1st DT's typically don't put up big sack totals. 2nd...he's doubled-teamed constantly.

[THE PISTONS]

The offense will be interesting. Dalton is raked 84.1 which is #8 QB overall.

Mixon 66.0 which is the 35th HB. I think people will be surprised by that.

[*Synric*]

Hubbard has been playing a lot of defensive tackle since Glasgow was hurt.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-04-2018, 12:54 AM)Synric Wrote: Hubbard has been playing a lot of defensive tackle since Glasgow was hurt.

OT but that was a crazy win for WV tonight. Your coach might look like Big Ern McCracken, but man he’s got a set of balls on him lol

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-04-2018, 12:51 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: The offense will be interesting. Dalton is raked 84.1 which is #8 QB overall.

Mixon 66.0 which is the 35th HB. I think people will be surprised by that.

Considering Mixon has put up the numbers he has in only 6 games I would definitely have to disagree with that rating. Big time.

[THE PISTONS]

(11-04-2018, 12:54 AM)Synric Wrote: Hubbard has been playing a lot of defensive tackle since Glasgow was hurt.

Yep. They list him as a DI. His rating is pretty bad unfortunately.

Now that Lawson is out for the year, hopefully they play him out there.

[hollodero]

(11-04-2018, 12:08 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: In other words, it avoids having spot players that do well from skewing the overall rankings of players that see significant action. (outliers)

I get that. I am implying that that's what's happening in the case of Fej. Also in other words, I wouldn't conclude from the rating that he should jump Shawn Williams on the depth chart and become a full-time starter.

[Circleville Guy]

(11-04-2018, 12:49 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I think, in general fans tend to look for Sacks and Interceptions to see if guys are performing. They also look at Tackles. PFF takes more than that into account.

Geno is double-teamed constantly. Fans that expect him to put up 12+ sacks yearly...1st DT's typically don't put up big sack totals. 2nd...he's doubled-teamed constantly.

There’s no doubt in my mind that the DE’s numbers get inflated because of what Geno does. I often wonder if fans understand that they will never ever see another Bengal DT that is better than Geno.

[Circleville Guy]

(11-04-2018, 12:54 AM)Synric Wrote: Hubbard has been playing a lot of defensive tackle since Glasgow was hurt.

I could see him as a LB or even a TE before I could a DT.

[BengalFanInNJ]

(11-04-2018, 12:32 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: We seem to really crush it in the 2nd rd...

Bates
Mixon
Boyd
Gio
Zeitler
Dalton
Dunlap

Fisher has really been our only miss in recent years.

Zeitler was a 1st rounder.