Defense (Deep-Dive Analysis using PFF Ratings)

[SunsetBengal]

(11-04-2018, 12:32 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: We seem to really crush it in the 2nd rd...

Bates
Mixon
Boyd
Gio
Zeitler
Dalton
Dunlap

Fisher has really been our only miss in recent years.

Actually, I think Kevin Zeitler was a 1st round selection (25?)

(11-04-2018, 01:03 AM)hollodero Wrote: I get that. I am implying that that's what's happening in the case of Fej. Also in other words, I wouldn't conclude from the rating that he should jump Shawn Williams on the depth chart and become a full-time starter.

I agree with your analysis, but I do think that Fej's performance warrants more PT, if nothing else just to see what he can do in situations.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-04-2018, 01:27 AM)BengalFanInNJ Wrote: Zeitler was a 1st rounder. 

That’s right. Forgot we had 2 picks in the 1st that year.

Still an impressive list.

[Millhouse]

Good to see all three 1st round corners ballin it up.

[XsandOs]

(11-04-2018, 01:27 AM)BengalFanInNJ Wrote: Zeitler was a 1st rounder. 

True.

But his point is valid.

Bengals have done well in the second round historically. This is a combination of willingness to take on players who have made bad decisions or just dropped out of first round due to Team needs. But majority have been just good decisions, after removing stress of first round selection failure stigma.

I would add the following:
Esiason
Carl Pickens
Dillon (best RB in our history)
Chad Johnson
Whitworth
Steinbach
Darnay Scott
Tim McGee
Harold Green
Eric Thomas
Collinsworth

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-03-2018, 11:38 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Hello all,

I feel like the Bye Week is a good time for this so I'll start with the defense. If it is well received, I'll do the offense.

I think the ratings show that our defensive line is pretty good. The Linebackers are pretty bad. Our Safeties are good. And our CB's are mediocre...which for having 3 1st Round picks is bad.

DL - DI:
Atkins - 89.2 - High Quality - #11 DI. He was rated as Elite for most of the season. 90+ is elite.
Billings - 73.7 - #27 DI. Ranks as Good. (He's MUCH BETTER than people give him credit for. He's kind of our modern day Peko as people see no sacks and think he's bad.)
Glasgow - Was rated 84.1 which is High Quality - HUGE LOSS.
Hubbard - 53.5 - #101 DI. Ranks as Average. He's had some nice splash plays on the year, but his rating shows he's struggled overall.
Washington - 73.4 in his limited play this season.

DL - ED
Dunlap - 78.5 - Good - #17 Edge
Willis - 62.9 - Above Average - #67 Edge - He's been kind of disappointing this year.
Lawson - 79.3 - #13 ED - HUGE loss losing him for the year. While he didn't get sacks, he got good pressure.
MJ - 54.2 - #99 Edge - He's struggling this year and with the loss of Lawson, MJ will be relied on more. Probably should have moved on from him in the offseason.

LB - Clearly this group of players is struggling and bringing down the overall defense. Really no one on this group looks stellar.
Vigil 69.2 - #23 LB
Evans 57.7 - #53 LB
Burfict 60.7 - Not enough snaps to be rated. He's struggled so far this season. 60.7 is WAY BELOW his standard.
Brown - 52.8 - #65 LB. He's putting up decent tackle stats...but 52.8 is not a good rating overall.
Nickerson 41.8 - #77 LB. Wow...his rating is way below what we need out of him.

CB
Kirkpatrick - 62.3 - #59 CB. He's been ranked higher for most of the year and dropped a lot lately.
Dennard - 61.9 - #62 CB.
Jackson - 64.4 - #52 CB. Really disappointing as he was rated extremely high last season. I guess he's been exposed in full-time play as a starter.
Note: It considers ratings in the 60's as above average, but you figure each team has 2 starters...and if our starters rank in the 50's and 60's...then that's not good.
Phillips - 56.8 in limited play.

Safety
Williams - 63.2 - #57 Safety.
Fej - 91.0 - Not enough snaps to be rated...but 91.0 ranks as Elite. He has the highest rating of any defender on our team. HE NEEDS TO PLAY MORE!
Bates - 83.8 - #4 Safety - High Quality.

Coaching schematic:  0.0 , A Blutarski....OK, PFF doesn't do that, but this scheme is pathetic and had better be changed in the bye week.  More aggressive, and no more easy completions.  Everything gets contested.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-04-2018, 12:12 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Not going to argue too much with any of those ratings, but I think Dunlap should be higher. He’s on pace for 14 sacks, and has been more consistent than Geno, imo.

Agreed.  And although he hasn't "gotten home" very often, I think Willis has played better than advertised.  I really like using him at RDE, and Hubbard on the inside with Geno and then Dunlap at LDE.   I think that is our best pas-rushing line.  

[Luvnit2]

I find it interesting looking at the numbers most fans blame Austin, but according to the numbers, it is the players under performing on defense.

[BengalChris]

(11-04-2018, 12:32 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: We seem to really crush it in the 2nd rd...

Bates
Mixon
Boyd
Gio
Dalton
Dunlap

Fisher has really been our only miss in recent years.

Hunt and Still were both 2nd rounders.

Hill was also a 2nd rounder. Not a star, but not a bad pick.

[Goalpost]

Interesting how Billings ranks higher than Hubbard, and it's actually much higher

[SunsetBengal]

(11-04-2018, 09:38 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I find it interesting looking at the numbers most fans blame Austin, but according to the numbers, it is the players under performing on defense.

Actually, I do hold Austin accountable for the secondary's inability to cover.  What, you think they all just suddenly forgot how to play football?  He's got them playing zone, when they all did well in man.  Obviously, Austin isn't communicating the principles of his game plan to the players properly.  Haven't you seen the way they look at each other when a coverage is blown?  That's them, not knowing who's responsibility it was to cover that man.  

If Austin can't get his message across, when it's already halfway through the season, it's time to go back to what the players know and are good at.

[*bengalfan74*]

(11-04-2018, 10:24 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Actually, I do hold Austin accountable for the secondary's inability to cover.  What, you think they all just suddenly forgot how to play football?  He's got them playing zone, when they all did well in man.  Obviously, Austin isn't communicating the principles of his game plan to the players properly.  Haven't you seen the way they look at each other when a coverage is blown?  That's them, not knowing who's responsibility it was to cover that man.  

If Austin can't get his message across, when it's already halfway through the season, it's time to go back to what the players know and are good at.

^This^

I very strongly feel there's a lot of confusion among our DB's and backers in pass coverage. Whether it's last second audibles they're not getting, the overall plan is to complicated, they have multiple responsibilities and don't understand which one to go to for what ? I dunno ?

But you can tell they're not on the same page on several plays.

Is just bad play part of it to ? sure

But I feel not being on the same page contributes greatly to the "bad play" they're just not buying into the system.

[GreenCornBengal]

Tend to think smart teams use first round picks on either
A) AJ Green home run type player
B) Play with extreme potential (John Ross, Hayward-Bey, those types of players, who have a 50/50 chance or maybe less of panning out)


In the second round, teams are targeting guys that are sure-fire contributors, but not necessarily world breakers. These picks have a higher chance of working out.

So seeing the 2nd rounders out performing the 1st rounders is something I would venture you would see with most teams. Just my opinion though!

[*Synric*]

(11-04-2018, 12:49 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I think, in general fans tend to look for Sacks and Interceptions to see if guys are performing. They also look at Tackles. PFF takes more than that into account.

Geno is double-teamed constantly. Fans that expect him to put up 12+ sacks yearly...1st DT's typically don't put up big sack totals. 2nd...he's doubled-teamed constantly.

That means 3 other defensive linemen are getting 1 on 1 match ups and with the exception of Carlos they are not generating negative plays.

[THE PISTONS]

(11-04-2018, 01:03 AM)hollodero Wrote: I get that. I am implying that that's what's happening in the case of Fej. Also in other words, I wouldn't conclude from the rating that he should jump Shawn Williams on the depth chart and become a full-time starter.

aka like Williams Jackson last year. He had excellent ratings...but he was essentially the 3rd CB. Now that he starts, he's basically average.

[jfkbengals]

(11-04-2018, 11:44 AM)Synric Wrote: That means 3 other defensive linemen are getting 1 on 1 match ups and with the exception of Carlos they are not generating negative plays.

That's not entirely true, as backs and TEs can help out.

[THE PISTONS]

(11-04-2018, 01:08 AM)Circleville Guy Wrote: There’s no doubt in my mind that the DE’s numbers get inflated because of what Geno does. I often wonder if fans understand that they will never ever see another Bengal DT that is better than Geno.

I agree.

It's kind of odd that with our defensive line so good that our LB's are so bad.

re: Preston Brown - I knew he racked up a lot of tackles and was basically an above average LB, but he's really disappointing here.

I think some of our LB play has to be coaching. We have signed a free agent from other teams the past what 3-4 years and they've all underperformed. Also, I just don't see the young players improving much.

There are lots of teams in the NFL, that could take a 3rd Round LB and start him in his first year and he'd perform decent to in some cases, good. Here, we take a guy like Jefferson and he can't even see snaps...with a bad starter in front of him.

[THE PISTONS]

(11-04-2018, 01:01 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: OT but that was a crazy win for WV tonight. Your coach might look like Big Ern McCracken, but man he’s got a set of balls on him lol

Gutsy call to go for 2. How about Texas calling TO right before the 1st 2 point conversion?

What a great game!

[jfkbengals]

(11-03-2018, 11:38 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: DL - ED
Dunlap - 78.5 - Good - #17 Edge
Willis - 62.9 - Above Average - #67 Edge - He's been kind of disappointing this year.
Lawson - 79.3 - #13 ED - HUGE loss losing him for the year. While he didn't get sacks, he got good pressure.
MJ - 54.2 - #99 Edge - He's struggling this year and with the loss of Lawson, MJ will be relied on more. Probably should have moved on from him in the offseason.

CB
Kirkpatrick - 62.3 - #59 CB. He's been ranked higher for most of the year and dropped a lot lately.
Dennard - 61.9 - #62 CB.
Jackson - 64.4 - #52 CB. Really disappointing as he was rated extremely high last season. I guess he's been exposed in full-time play as a starter.
Note: It considers ratings in the 60's as above average, but you figure each team has 2 starters...and if our starters rank in the 50's and 60's...then that's not good.
Phillips - 56.8 in limited play.

Was there not a listing for Hubbard's play on the end?  He's played a ton of snaps there as well.

So I have two problems with the bolded CB statement.  First, none of the starters are rated in the 50's, so I don't know why that is there.  Second, if 60's is above average, then you can't say that it's not good for the starters to be in the 60's.  Particularly in the modern NFL of rules favoring offensive players.

[THE PISTONS]

(11-04-2018, 09:16 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Coaching schematic:  0.0 , A Blutarski....OK, PFF doesn't do that, but this scheme is pathetic and had better be changed in the bye week.  More aggressive, and no more easy completions.  Everything gets contested.  

Yeah...I suspect the players don't fit the scheme well and the scheme just doesn't work against good QB's who know the hot read.

For instance, some CB's are better in Man than Zone.

Our LB's...I don't really know what to say there. I think Burfict may not be able to thrive in a league that takes his physicality away. Honestly, I look for him to get a lifetime ban eventually anyways...so we likely need to move on from him whether we want to or not.

IF the Raiders did actually try to trade for him, we should have done it in a second.

[THE PISTONS]

(11-04-2018, 09:38 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I find it interesting looking at the numbers most fans blame Austin, but according to the numbers, it is the players under performing on defense.

It's really a chicken/egg thing.

Are the players bad and underperforming? Or is the scheme and/or playcalling the issue?

What I do know is we have 3 1st Round CB's and a dominant Defensive Line.