Would you trade Suarez for a Number 1 Starter?

[samhain]

The Reds have a fairly legit offense. They also have three, possibly four spots in the starting rotation that need to be filled with competent players. On top of that they have a top prospect that's probably coming to the majors next year who plays third as his natural position. They also drafted a guy in the first round last summer who's largely believed to be on the fast track to the majors in India who plays 3rd.

Suarez is probably their most valuable asset right now. He's a star under contract for a reasonable price. The only circumstance I see warranting even considering trading him is if the Reds get a true number 1 or high-end 2 starter with control in return.

Even if the Reds spend more, they will have to compete with much deeper-pocketed teams for starters in free agency. Their constraints will make it tough to fix the issue when they have to go up against teams like New York and Washington, who spend whatever it takes. It also doesn't help that pitching is the sport's most desired commodity.

If a team offers you a young number 1 hammer with years of control like Blake Snell or James Paxton, do you bite if you're the Reds?

[fredtoast]

Our only decent prospect (Senzil) is an infielder who they are thinking about moving to outfield.

So, even though I love Suarez, I'd say we would have to do it.

[Circleville Guy]

Suarez is such a steal of a contract that I would try to build around him. He would be the last player in the organization that I would trade. I would trade any prospect way before I would him. There is no sure thing with any prospect, regardless of what he does in the minors. Suarez is a sure thing right now that is very, very affordable. You add additional talent to the locked in and affordable talent that you already have. You find other ways to get the starting pitching you need. I’m way bigger on proven commodities than I am with prospects. It’s never made since to me to pinch pennies in the bigs but to blow 8-10 million on an international ss prospect that hits .200 against A ball pitchers. What are the odds of that guy hitting .270 against big league arms in a few years? Spend that damn money to help the big league team.

[*psychdoctor*]

A Trade involving Suarez only makes sense if Senzel is healthy. He is naturally a 3rd baseman so if his health is assured then Yes, trade for a top tier pitcher.

I still think the Reds will land a big name like Corbin or Happ. They must do so to increase fan enthusiasm. It was reported today that the Reds have 30 million to spend. They should be able to get two good arms.

[CJD]

yea.

I mean...easily.

Suarez is probably the most valuable asset this team has, from a trade value standpoint, and if we could get a Jacob DeGrom or Noah Syndergaard for him, I'd pull that trigger immediately.

I think Senzel will be a fine offensive replacement for Suarez. He may have some rookie struggles, but the benefit we'd get from a TOR starter would more than make up for that difference, I think.

Plus, Suarez is not that great of a defender. He led the NL in errors by third basemen, with 19, and had the lowest fielding percentage in the NL by a third baseman at .948. So it's not like we're missing out on a premium defender or anything, which Senzel would likely outright be an upgrade to.

That said, it would probably take more than just Suarez to get a DeGrom type pitcher and I don't think we are in a position that we can pay that kind of price for them, so I'd say just hold onto Suarez unless someone offers something amazing for him. He is one of our best players, after all.

[*bengalfan74*]

Bottom Line:

The Reds have to get a couple really good starters to have any chance. That's all there is to it !

New Manager and coaches are great but without that starting pitching staff it matters not. I'd hate to let Suarez go but they've painted themselves into a corner with the pitcher not to be named and they might not have any other choice ?

They can't field another starting rotation of 4's and 5's plus the pitcher not to be named. That stadium will be empty by June if they do !

[samhain]

I read somewhere that the organization is open to moving Gennett and Hamilton (yes, Bob has had a change of heart). I also think Iglesias should be on the table as well.

As far as spending goes, I'm also hearing that they don't have much of a shot at guys like Corbin or Keuchel, 30 mil or not. I've heard that the team is interested in adding a number 2 or 3 starter and a good middle relief option in free agency. Not exactly earth-shattering moves there, but probably good for a few wins if the pan out.

I think about the 2019 Reds kind of like the 2018 Bengals. They'll be better, but they're still in the process of becoming legitimately good. Give them two years of acquiring talent, however, and they could become something special. They've screwed up the rebuild so bad, that it will take more than 1 season with a new pitcher to fix their issues, obviously.

Next year, however will be a different story. Homer's contract will be fulfilled after 2019 and a bunch of cash will be freed up to go shop for free agents. At that point, perhaps you actually can go after a number 1 if you need to.

My ideal plan would probably be a bit too ambitious for the Reds FO, but here it is: Sign a number 2 or 3 starter like Morton, Holland, maybe Happ, or Gio Gonzalez. Trade for another starter. I'd look at Sonny Gray. He's not in the good graces of the Yankee organization. After they get done adding pitchers in trades/FA, he could probably be had for something we can afford to lose, ie Gennett or Iglesisas. He may not be an ace in NY, but he's easily be our best pitcher almost immediately. After that I'd wait to see if anyone wants to sign Harvey. If not, I'd add him on a 1 or 2 year deal.

After that you have a rotation of Gray, free agent, Harvey, Castillo and Disco. Roll with that group until 2019 and hope maybe Mahle or Santillan is ready for the majors by 2020. By then, offensive players like Senzel and Trammell should be ready to play in the bigs and you should be able to bring in a big arm with the windfall from the Bailey deal expiring.

[guyofthetiger]

I would rather trade Senzil than Suarez. I know that would not bring a #1 or #2 starter. However, I still think the Reds have some good pitching coming to fruition this year.

[samhain]

(11-09-2018, 10:33 AM)guyofthetiger Wrote: I would rather trade Senzil than Suarez. I know that would not bring a #1 or #2 starter. However, I still think the Reds have some good pitching coming to fruition this year.

I dunno.  Senzel doesn't have near the value that Suarez does right now.  I'm not talking about moving a valuable piece to get a solid rotation guy.  I'm talking about moving a star to get a young hammer that could potentially anchor a rotation for the next 2 or 3 seasons.  

Pitching is mega-expensive on the trade market.  Mo Egger was referencing the Latos deal yesterday and pointed out that the Reds had to give up 3 future All-Stars to get him.  That's the kind of package they'll likely have to give up to get an ace or near-ace.

[fredtoast]

(11-07-2018, 07:08 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: Suarez is such a steal of a contract that I would try to build around him. 

But that is also one of the things that gives him more trade value.

I am a huge fan of Suarez, but we have to do something to get some pitching and Senzil is the only prospect we have that looks like he can step in and start next season.

[Circleville Guy]

(11-09-2018, 07:13 PM)fredtoast Wrote: But that is also one of the things that gives him more trade value.

I am a huge fan of Suarez, but we have to do something to get some pitching and Senzil is the only prospect we have that looks like he can step in and start next season.

My problem is what guarantees do we have that Senzil will provide Suarez type numbers beginning next year? What about years after? 60%? 70% tops? Suarez is probably at what 90%. I’d keep the sure thing that’s locked up for the next 5 years at a bargain deal. Suarez isn’t bringing back an established #1 , so why not trade the guy that isn’t a sure thing for a number 2 or 3? Why not keep him too and move Scooter and Hamilton for prospects and use their money, along with the bump money to sign a quality arm and a center fielder. Their money plus the bump money should net 2 starting pitchers and a centerfielder.

[CJD]

(11-09-2018, 10:33 AM)guyofthetiger Wrote: I would rather trade Senzil than Suarez. I know that would not bring a #1 or #2 starter. However, I still think the Reds have some good pitching coming to fruition this year.

Sounds a lot like what we said last off season.

[samhain]

(11-10-2018, 05:10 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Sounds a lot like what we said last off season.

I have no faith in this organization's ability to develop starting pitching.  There's no doubt that the best thing that could happen for this team would be for Greene, Santillan, and Vlad Guttierez to develop into solid to good MLB starters.  

Unfortunately, I've seen this before.  Stephenson was supposed to be the next great hope.  He was going to be guy that would come to the majors in a few years and signal the end of the rebuild.  Then there was Reed, who I once heard Jeff Brantley call Bumgarner-like, lol.  Then Brandon Finnegan, who was basically the centerpiece of the Cueto trade.  Every one of these guys has been a bill of goods so far.  At best, they'll be good bullpen arms if they even manage to stay on the team.

This team has been given years to suck in order to give starting pitching a chance to arrive internally.  It crashed and burned at every turn.  They can either suck horribly and continue to alienate it's fanbase or they can bring in pitching from elsewhere and try to get better.

[fredtoast]

(11-09-2018, 11:43 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote:  why not trade the guy that isn’t a sure thing for a number 2 or 3?

Why not keep him too and move Scooter and Hamilton for prospects 

1.  Not sure who you men by "the guy that isn't a sure thing" but I don't see anyone we have that would bring a #2 or #3 starter in trade.

2.  If you don't ant to trade away a proven player then why get rid of Scooter?

[Circleville Guy]

(11-13-2018, 12:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 1.  Not sure who you men by "the guy that isn't a sure thing" but I don't see anyone we have that would bring a #2 or #3 starter in trade.

2.  If you don't ant to trade away a proven player then why get rid of Scooter?

Senzel isn’t a sure thing to ever put up Suarez type numbers. Suarez is more likely to repeat those numbers and has a sweet contract. I’d take a little less talent and move Senzel before Suarez. His health issues are not proven to be fixed yet either!

[grampahol]

At this point Nick Senzel is also just a prospect. He's never proven that he can hit major league pitching and neither has India. One of the two at least gives us a shot at having a decent bat from 3rd. Still, before trading away Suarez it would make sense to find out if one of the two can hit big league pitching. How many minor league bats tear up minor league pitching only to flop miserable at the major league level? It's not exactly unheard of..

[fredtoast]

(11-13-2018, 08:27 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: Senzel isn’t a sure thing to ever put up Suarez type numbers. Suarez is more likely to repeat those numbers and has a sweet contract. I’d take a little less talent and move Senzel before Suarez. His health issues are not proven to be fixed yet either!

We can't get anything of value for Senzil.

I'd like to keep Scooter and Suarez, but the fact is their offense is useless unless we come up with some starting pitching.  We have to make move.

If Senzil flops then he flops, but if we can't produce any talent from our own prospects we are never going to win anything.

[*bengalfan74*]

(11-16-2018, 01:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: We can't get anything of value for Senzil.

I'd like to keep Scooter and Suarez, but the fact is their offense is useless unless we come up with some starting pitching.  We have to make move.

If Senzil flops then he flops, but if we can't produce any talent from our own prospects we are never going to win anything.

YEP !

Top 5 off season priorities: 

#1 Starting Pitching
#2 Starting Pitching
#3 Starting Pitching
#4 Starting Pitching
#5 Starting Pitching

We could have a team of George Herman Ruth, Henry Aaron, Ted Williams, Johnny Bench, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Charlie Hustle, Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn and so on.

But if we're running Laurel and Hardy and the what not pitching staff out there we're gonna lose 97 games again.

[kevin]

(11-07-2018, 04:46 PM)samhain Wrote: The Reds have a fairly legit offense.  They also have three, possibly four spots in the starting rotation that need to be filled with competent players.  On top of that they have a top prospect that's probably coming to the majors next year who plays third as his natural position.  They also drafted a guy in the first round last summer who's largely believed to be on the fast track to the majors in India who plays 3rd.

Suarez is probably their most valuable asset right now.  He's a star under contract for a reasonable price.  The only circumstance I see warranting even considering trading him is if the Reds get a true number 1 or high-end 2 starter with control in return.

Even if the Reds spend more, they will have to compete with much deeper-pocketed teams for starters in free agency.  Their constraints will make it tough to fix the issue when they have to go up against teams like New York and Washington, who spend whatever it takes.  It also doesn't help that pitching is the sport's most desired commodity.

If a team offers you a young number 1 hammer with years of control like Blake Snell or James Paxton, do you bite if you're the Reds?

I would trade Votto before I would trade Suarez or Scooter.   It's just dollars and sense.  Trading Votto would open up money for pitching.  Votto is not consistent.  He has good years and bad years.  Last year was awful considering what Reds pay him.  Votto is the one they need to trade.  There were many other first basemen better than Votto in 2018.  Reds could get a cheaper first baseman and he would probably hit OK, maybe more power than Votto. 

[*bengalfan74*]

(11-16-2018, 04:49 PM)kevin Wrote: I would trade Votto before I would trade Suarez or Scooter.   It's just dollars and sense.  Trading Votto would open up money for pitching.  Votto is not consistent.  He has good years and bad years.  Last year was awful considering what Reds pay him.  Votto is the one they need to trade.  There were many other first basemen better than Votto in 2018.  Reds could get a cheaper first baseman and he would probably hit OK, maybe more power than Votto. 

I'm not sure how tradeable Votto really is ?  I wouldn't be at all opposed to it if they could get a decent starter out of him, but I doubt it.