Wildcard Watch

[fredtoast]

(11-14-2018, 05:27 PM)Wyche Wrote: I agree about Guenther.  While not spectacular, the D was at least solid. 

The NFL is a passing league and under Guenther our pass defense was number one in the league in passer rating allowed.  We had more interceptions than any team in the league.

[BengalFanInNJ]

(11-14-2018, 06:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Titans are looking REALLY good right now.  

-In their two games since the bye they have scored 28 and 34 points. Before the bye their offense was horrible averaging only 15.1 points per game. Mariota has been the difference.  Before the bye he averaged 172 yds/game with 3 tds, 5 ints, and a passer rating of 78.5.  He was supposedly dealing with some numbness in his throwing hand from a nerve injury.  In the two games since the bye he has averaged 234 yds/game with 4 tds, 0 ints, and a passer rating of 122.2

-They have the #1 scoring defense in the league.

-They only have two games remaining against teams with winning records (Wash, Hou)

Yeah. I had the Titans losing both to the Cowboys and Patriots. I was wrong. 

[McC]

(11-14-2018, 02:56 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think Cincinnati finishes 9-7 and just misses playoffs. I think the Titans get that last WC spot. They put a whoopin' on NE, something I don't think the Bengals would have come close to doing. With the coaching change, I think it MIGHT help to reduce the downward spiral of the past month but I don't think it's enough to get into the playoffs.

Last year, the Titans gave the Patriots all they could handle in the playoffs too.  And that was with a different HC.  Apparently, they match up well with them.

[*Awful Llama*]

(11-14-2018, 02:56 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think Cincinnati finishes 9-7 and just misses playoffs. I think the Titans get that last WC spot. They put a whoopin' on NE, something I don't think the Bengals would have come close to doing. With the coaching change, I think it MIGHT help to reduce the downward spiral of the past month but I don't think it's enough to get into the playoffs.

Sounds about right.  We get some wins down the road but we're just squeezed out by Tennessee and San Diego/KC. 

Or, maybe this guy's right...

(11-14-2018, 06:18 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: Bengals win the AFC North. Don't have to squeak in.

Yeah, run the table, baby  :andy:

[motoarch]

(11-14-2018, 06:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Titans are looking REALLY good right now.

-In their two games since the bye they have scored 28 and 34 points. Before the bye their offense was horrible averaging only 15.1 points per game. Mariota has been the difference. Before the bye he averaged 172 yds/game with 3 tds, 5 ints, and a passer rating of 78.5. He was supposedly dealing with some numbness in his throwing hand from a nerve injury. In the two games since the bye he has averaged 234 yds/game with 4 tds, 0 ints, and a passer rating of 122.2

-They have the #1 scoring defense in the league.

-They only have two games remaining against teams with winning records (Wash, Hou)

Of all the ways this could play out this is the only one that really bothers me. Titans are looking stout right now and so is Texas. I don’t see either of these teams dropping of right now.

Cincinnati has to stay ahead of them(titans) if they want to make the playoffs and it’s going to be tough.

I’m not as worried about the colts, dolphins or even Baltimore.

[motoarch]

So this interesting.

The nfl network gives the odds for each team to make the playoffs in the video linked below.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/game-theory/0ap3000000988309/Game-Theory-Week-11-playoff-percentages

They don’t explain how that come up with the % chance and put the ravens at 43%, bengals at 41% and titans at 37%.

The link below from another website does explain how they come up with their % and have bengals and titans at 50% and ravens at 16%.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nflpostseasonprob.html

My own feeling is the titans the most likely but you can’t count any of the three out just yet.

[Luvnit2]

(11-14-2018, 04:35 PM)guyofthetiger Wrote: Who cares? The Bengals will lose the first playoff game as usual. Bank on it.

15 AFC and 15 NFC teams will not make the Super Bowl. Who cares if Bengals are not one of top 3 or 4 rated AFC teams, being at top only means all but 1 lose and possibly all of them

Let's figure out a way to get into the playoffs, then trash them if they lose. 

So sick of all the negative BS in this forum

[XsandOs]

Falcons were the last Team we played at near full strength. Seems like years ago.

Lost once to Carolina with all the pieces (mostly).

Can't get Eifert or Lawson back, but once healthy, this Team will fight.

10-6 is a real possibility. Whether that's enough, is the question.

Winter is the equalizer.

[grampahol]

What damned wild card are we talking about here? The wild card towards the top of next year's draft? Certainly you aren't suggesting that the Bengals will or even ought to qualify for the post season this year. If they do squeek in its yet another 1 and done.  We're just done. Forget the 1.

PS: I've settled on negativity as my new Bengals fandom mantra for the season .. Go 2019 Draft! 

[Bengalsrob]

I think this Ravens game is the key. Win, and playoffs are a real possibility. Lose this game, and we're all but done. If Marvin can't sure up the defense, however; we won't beat the Browns,sadly.

[Circleville Guy]

The Bengals consistently let me down. I began the year jaded and pessimistic. I shifted to optimistic after the 4-1 start. I’ve tried being optimistic every week since, even claiming that the Bengals would be in it in last weeks debacle. If they lose to the Ravens, all optimism is shot! Urgency time is now for the Bengals and anything less than a playoff birth is unacceptable to me, not after a 4-1 start.

[bengalsturntup926]

Ill post this here instead of making a new post because people wont like it. But i think our best chance at winning a playoff game would be against houston, titans , or chargers. I dont think theres no way they will allow us to beat pitt, kc, or new england..

It just becomes more evident that the refs sway games and help the teams they want to win. Go back to 2015 ,they didnt even review hills fumble long,and there was a pic at that time showing his knee down but it quickly became unavailable. They then get the ball and have penalties all the way down to field goal range which was bogus and they should of called porter. If that was pitt they would of said the knee was down. If it was bengals coaches on the field they would of penalized us. They just make sure teams beat us.

We should actually have the 2 seed if refs called fair games. We should of beat pitt last game but the refs kept them in it till they won. They had 0 holding calls all game ,i think so did new orleans. In the new orleans game we might of still lost but if it was called fair, the beginning of that game goes a different way. Its probably 10-7 when we get the ball. It doesnt feel like they can score on every drive. Its a momentum swing,then we go 3 and out and they go up 21-7 and at that point everyone knew the game was over and they looked unstoppable. We get blown out.

Vs kc we are already playing a top team, but the refs no calls and bad calls on us once again gave kc big momentum and a big lead. Which made us abandon the run and pass. Notice when we get leads we usually win too. The games we win we actually get calls our way.

I dont even know why i allow myself to be so into the nfl i really need to re- evaluate life. Because its really a waste of emotion and time for a rigged product. Can you imagine if the steelers had a bad season of 4-12 theyd be out of huge money same with the pats, kc has mahomes and due for playoff wins. They got the storyline of upgrading alex smith to get playoff wins.

[fredtoast]

(11-14-2018, 09:46 PM)motoarch Wrote: So this interesting.

The nfl network gives the odds for each team to make the playoffs in the video linked below.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/game-theory/0ap3000000988309/Game-Theory-Week-11-playoff-percentages

They don’t explain how that come up with the % chance and put the ravens at 43%, bengals at 41% and titans at 37%.

The link below from another website does explain how they come up with their % and have bengals and titans at 50% and ravens at 16%.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nflpostseasonprob.html

My own feeling is the titans the most likely but you can’t count any of the three out just yet.

Going just by the numbers abd trends I would say the Titans are a big favorite.  Number one scoring defense in the league and an offense that has come alive after their bye.

[Whacked]

x2

(11-14-2018, 10:55 PM)Bengalsrob Wrote: I think this Ravens game is the key. Win, and playoffs are a real possibility. Lose this game, and we're all but done. If Marvin can't sure up the defense, however; we won't beat the Browns,sadly.

[BengalChris]

Tennessee is surging, Bengals are going the other direction.

The Bengals have gone from #1 seed to the last seed.

[motoarch]

(11-15-2018, 02:45 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Going just by the numbers abd trends I would say the Titans are a big favorite.  Number one scoring defense in the league and an offense that has come alive after their bye.

I certainly agree with you but I don’t think the colts will be pushovers and the titans have them twice. Despite their win over NE they’ve been somewhat inconsistent. With games against Houston and Washington to they might not have an easy road and may have to rely on the bengals to continue a downward spiral if they want to get in.

I think we agree though I like their odds better than ours. I also think if they get it they have a chance to play spoiler; they are everything you said they are.

[grampahol]

I think that the only way this team gets in and succeeds in the playoffs is if ol Mikey and company forks over lots of payoff capital, not playoff capital . I've been convinced for some time now it's ALL about the money and nothing else matters. The way I see it, and I could be wrong, but it's a fixed league and championships are won by the highest bidder. Slide enough cash to the right hands and even Matt Barkly could be the super bowl MVP and every pick 6 dropped on the 1 yardline by "the oops rules" ..

[YsCascadia]

I don't know why so many are giving up on a divisional win.

The Steelers have the TOUGHEST schedule out of the AFCN and everyone is acting like we can't "catch" them.

@Jags, @Denver, Chargers, @Raiders (they should win this one easily, but the traveling beforehand is brutal). @NO, NE and to finish up with us in Pittsburgh.

You're telling me that you think the Steelers beat everyone one of those teams? With all of that traveling?

We have the reeling Ravens, the Browns twice (no we will not split with them), Raiders and Broncos in Cincinnati and the Chargers in LA, before playing the Steelers.

We have 5 potential wins while the Steelers have 5 potential losses. It is fair to say we have the better shot at winning 3 out of 5 than they have of winning 2 out of 5. Hell it isn't impossible for us to win all but 1 while the Steelers lose all but 1. If that were to happen then the records for the AFCN would be Steelers 7-8-1 and the Bengals would be 11-5. Even if the Steelers win 1 or 2 more games, they will only have a 8-7-1 or 9-6-1 record. If they Bengals drop 1 other game, they would have a 10-6 record. Where we would get hurt is if we finish with the same wins as the Steelers, since they have that tie.

[Catmandude123]

(11-15-2018, 10:32 AM)YsCascadia Wrote: I don't know why so many are giving up on a divisional win.

The Steelers have the TOUGHEST schedule out of the AFCN and everyone is acting like we can't "catch" them.

@Jags, @Denver, Chargers, @Raiders (they should win this one easily, but the traveling beforehand is brutal).  @NO, NE and to finish up with us in Pittsburgh.

You're telling me that you think the Steelers beat everyone one of those teams?  With all of that traveling?

We have the reeling Ravens, the Browns twice (no we will not split with them), Raiders and Broncos in Cincinnati and the Chargers in LA, before playing the Steelers.

We have 5 potential wins while the Steelers have 5 potential losses.  It is fair to say we have the better shot at winning 3 out of 5 than they have of winning 2 out of 5.  Hell it isn't impossible for us to win all but 1 while the Steelers lose all but 1.  If that were to happen then the records for the AFCN would be Steelers 7-8-1 and the Bengals would be 11-5.  Even if the Steelers win 1 or 2 more games, they will only have a 8-7-1 or 9-6-1 record.  If they Bengals drop 1 other game, they would have a 10-6 record.  Where we would get hurt is if we finish with the same wins as the Steelers, since they have that tie.

While there is nothing wrong with being optimistic but have you watched any game the last three weeks? Unless we get our defensive players off the injury report we have zero chance of making the POs. The only other chance is the refs quit letting Pitts linemen hold the defense and BB gets hurt.

[*bengalfan74*]

(11-15-2018, 10:32 AM)YsCascadia Wrote: I don't know why so many are giving up on a divisional win.

The Steelers have the TOUGHEST schedule out of the AFCN and everyone is acting like we can't "catch" them.

@Jags, @Denver, Chargers, @Raiders (they should win this one easily, but the traveling beforehand is brutal).  @NO, NE and to finish up with us in Pittsburgh.

You're telling me that you think the Steelers beat everyone one of those teams?  With all of that traveling?

We have the reeling Ravens, the Browns twice (no we will not split with them), Raiders and Broncos in Cincinnati and the Chargers in LA, before playing the Steelers.

We have 5 potential wins while the Steelers have 5 potential losses.  It is fair to say we have the better shot at winning 3 out of 5 than they have of winning 2 out of 5.  Hell it isn't impossible for us to win all but 1 while the Steelers lose all but 1.  If that were to happen then the records for the AFCN would be Steelers 7-8-1 and the Bengals would be 11-5.  Even if the Steelers win 1 or 2 more games, they will only have a 8-7-1 or 9-6-1 record.  If they Bengals drop 1 other game, they would have a 10-6 record.  Where we would get hurt is if we finish with the same wins as the Steelers, since they have that tie.

The Steelers easily beat the Jags, Broncos, and Raiders that gives them 9 wins. Of the Chargers, Saints, and Patriots they'll probably win one = 10. I could see the final game against us as a do or die, for us. How you reckon that will turn ?