Potential head coach candidates

[Millhouse]

(11-21-2018, 03:27 PM)Beaker Wrote: So only Sunday and Monday nights count as prime time?

I dont think anyone really considers Thursday night games on the NFLN primetime. Even in week 5 when they move to FOX, it's still just a Thursday night game that is like semi-primetime. Typically the games aren't good to watch, when players only have had 3 days of rest.

[Beaker]

(11-21-2018, 03:32 PM)Millhouse Wrote: I dont think anyone really considers Thursday night games on the NFLN primetime. 

Then you would be 100% wrong.

Googled it for you:

"The prime time or the peak time is the block of broadcast programming taking place during the middle of the evening for television programming. The term prime time is often defined in terms of a fixed time period – for example (in the United States), from 8:00p.m. to 11:00p.m."

[fredtoast]

(11-21-2018, 03:32 PM)Millhouse Wrote: I dont think anyone really considers Thursday night games on the NFLN primetime. 

Then you have never paid attention to the numbers posted by Bengal fans regarding their record in prime time.  They always include the Thursday night games.

[N_B]

[quote='fredtoast' pid='635640' dateline='1542824378']

If I flip a coin 7 times and it lands on heads each time does that mean it is impossible for it to land on tails the next time


This isn’t a gamblers fallacy problem

[Millhouse]

(11-21-2018, 03:33 PM)Beaker Wrote: Then you would be 100% wrong.

Googled it for you:

"The prime time or the peak time is the block of broadcast programming taking place during the middle of the evening for television programming. The term prime time is often defined in terms of a fixed time period – for example (in the United States), from 8:00p.m. to 11:00p.m."

Instead of saying prime time, I meant to say 'prime time'.

If anyone thinks that a game on Thursday night on the NFLN channel is on the same level as a Sunday night game on NBC, then they are kidding themselves.

[fredtoast]

(11-21-2018, 04:07 PM)N_B Wrote:

(11-21-2018, 03:19 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If I flip a coin 7 times and it lands on heads each time does that mean it is impossible for it to land on tails the next time


This isn’t a gamblers fallacy problem

You said they were "independent" outcomes.

So why not answer the question I asked?

[BengalChris]

Eric Bieniemy Currently OC with the Chiefs. He also played a season or two in Cinci.

[fredtoast]

(11-21-2018, 04:49 PM)Millhouse Wrote: If anyone thinks that a game on Thursday night on the NFLN channel is on the same level as a Sunday night game on NBC, then they are kidding themselves.

Then why did you make this post before our Thursday night game against the Ravens earlier this year?

(09-12-2018, 03:55 PM)Millhouse Wrote: I see your "The Ravens suck" 

And raise you "Marvin in Primetime"

You know, if you would just be honest all the time you would not have to worry about remembering what you said before.

[Lucidus]

(11-21-2018, 03:19 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If I flip a coin 7 times and it lands on heads each time does that mean it is impossible for it to land on tails the next time?

Of course not. In fact, in a very simplistic game of chance, it would be perfectly rational to assume that the next flip could be tails.

However, in a much more complex situation like an NFL playoff game, past results / outcomes can, and should, be reasonably factored in to the equation to surmise future probabilities. 

That doesn't mean that anything is guaranteed, only that one outcome -- based on prior evidence -- is more likely than not.

Can "more likely probabilities" be wrong? Of course. However, it would not be at all illogical for one to feel more confident siding with the accumulation of past evidence and results.

[Millhouse]

(11-21-2018, 05:12 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Then why did you make this post before our Thursday night game against the Ravens earlier this year?


You know, if you would just be honest all the time you would not have to worry about remembering what you said before.

If I remember right I was making a joke. But to clarify this once and for all here is the 'Primetime' scale. 1. NBC 2. ESPN. 3. TNF on Fox 4. TNF on NFLN

There, so yes, technically it is considered a Primetime game which I technically was right about.

That said, what is Marvin's record on SNF, the biggest one of them, 0-7 I think?

[N_B]

(11-21-2018, 05:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You said they were "independent" outcomes.

So why not answer the question I asked?

Independent doesn’t mean random

[sandwedge]

(11-21-2018, 05:17 PM)Lucidus Wrote: Correct, in a very simplistic game of chance.

However, in a much more complex situation like an NFL playoff game, past results can reasonably be used to surmise future probabilities. 

That doesn't mean that anything is guaranteed, only that one outcome -- based on prior evidence -- is more likely than not.

Can "more likely probabilities" be wrong? Of course. However, it would not be at all illogical for one to feel more confident siding with the accumulation of past evidence and results.

I gotta ask, where are you from? 

[BengalChris]

(11-21-2018, 04:49 PM)Millhouse Wrote: Instead of saying prime time, I meant to say 'prime time'.

If anyone thinks that a game on Thursday night on the NFLN channel is on the same level as a Sunday night game on NBC, then they are kidding themselves.

I must be getting old. I can remember when there were no Sunday night games or Thursday night games. And no Monday night games for that matter. There was no ESPN and no cable TV either. LOL

[fredtoast]

(11-21-2018, 05:21 PM)Millhouse Wrote: If I remember right I was making a joke. 

Right.  A joke that required Thursday night games to be counted as "prime time" games

(11-21-2018, 05:21 PM)Millhouse Wrote: But to clarify this once and for all here is the 'Primetime' scale. 1. NBC 2. ESPN. 3. TNF on Fox 4. TNF on NFLN

Based on what criteria?

And what about Monday Night games before '06 when they were on ABC?

And what about Sunday Night games before '06 when they were on NBC?

And what about the Thursday Night games that were on CBS?

[fredtoast]

(11-21-2018, 06:25 PM)N_B Wrote: Independent doesn’t mean random

No, but it means the previous outcomes have no effect on the next one.

So, you ever going to answer my question?

[N_B]

(11-21-2018, 06:57 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No, but it means the previous outcomes have no effect on the next one.

So, you ever going to answer my question?

Dude, if you don’t understand the concepts well enough to know that the the question you asked is a complete non sequitur, then I can’t engage in a good conversation about this.

[fredtoast]

(11-21-2018, 07:01 PM)N_B Wrote: Dude, if you don’t understand the concepts well enough to know that the the question you asked is a complete non sequitur, then I can’t engage in a good conversation about this.

Okay then Let's go back to your question.

If the Bengals have lost 7 straight playoff games and the chance of them winning each one of them was 40% then what are the chances of them winning the next one they play?

Now all you have to do is answer your own question instead of worrying about my alleged non sequitur. 

[N_B]

(11-21-2018, 07:07 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Okay then Let's go back to your question.

If the Bengals have lost 7 straight playoff games and the chance of them winning each one of them was 40% then what are the chances of them winning the next one they play?

Now all you have to do is answer your own question instead of worrying about my alleged non sequitur. 

What I’m saying it this- the chances of Marvin Lewis not winning at lleast one playoff game in his 7 chances is less than 3%. Now, one can claim sample size is too small, and that may be true, but I’d wager to say that it is statistically significant

To me, that suggests that there’s some skill, or lack thereof, with respect to Lewis playoff coaching ability

[McC]

(11-21-2018, 07:07 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Okay then Let's go back to your question.

If the Bengals have lost 7 straight playoff games and the chance of them winning each one of them was 40% then what are the chances of them winning the next one they play?

Now all you have to do is answer your own question instead of worrying about my alleged non sequitur. 

Marvin got tired of getting hammered about losing playoff games so he came up with a better way.

[fredtoast]

(11-21-2018, 07:16 PM)N_B Wrote: What I’m saying it this- the chances of Marvin Lewis not winning at lleast one playoff game in his 7 chances is less than 3%.  Now, one can claim sample size is too small, and that may be true, but I’d wager to say that it is statistically significant

To me, that suggests that there’s some skill, or lack thereof, with respect to Lewis playoff coaching ability

Well, the first problem is that you just made up the numbers.

And the second problem is with the logic you used.  If I am not mistaken, based on your parameters Marvin has a 40% chance of winning the next playoff game he coaches, correct?