Homer Bailey traded to Dodgers!

[kevin]

I know. There is already a Reds trade Homer Bailey thread. I like to put the spin on all the Reds got in this deal. I would have traded Bailey for a bag of peanuts, so I'm amazed Reds walk away with so much. It's as if Santa just came early to Reds and loaded Reds up under the tree.

[CJD]

So, to give a proper rundown of what was given and what was received:

The Reds offloaded Homer and his 23 million dollar salary.
They also relieved themselves of the 5 million dollar buyout for his 2020 season.
They received 7 million dollars from the Dodgers.

They received Alex Wood. A solid, relatively young ground ball pitcher who doesn't give up a lot of home runs who has a 3.29 career ERA and a respectable set of statistics, including a 117 career ERA+ (100 ERA+ indicating an "average" ERA score).
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodal02.shtml
His arbitration salary is projected to be approximately 9 million dollars.

They received Yasiel Puig. A relatively young outfielder with a cannon for an arm and good power with a career 127 OPS+ and .279 career batting average.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/puigya01.shtml
His salary is 9.2 million dollars.

They received Matt Kemp. An aging outfielder who will likely be used in platoon or pinch hitting situations unless he regains his previous form. He did have a bit of a resurgence in 2018, but during the final few months and the Dodgers playoff run, he was well below average. He had a good statistical season due to his strong start however, at .290/.338/.481 and an OPS+ of 121.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kempma01.shtml
His salary is a whopping 21.75 million dollars, 2.5 of which is being paid by San Diego. Net cost for the Reds: 19.25 million dollars.

They received Kyle Farmer, who I don't know much about but seems like a backup 3B/C for the bench.

The net change in salaries owed due to this trade for 2019:
+ 23
+ 7
- 9
- 9.2
- 19.25
Total: - 7.45 million.
Plus, we save 5 milion in 2020, due to Homer's buy out no longer being our problem. So net cost is 2.45 million.

All three of these players are in the last year of team control and will be free agents in 2019. The good news is that, since Puig and Wood are coming off their arbitration years, if the Reds offer them a qualifying offer and they refuse, we get competitive balance draft picks (similar to compensatory picks) that could be as high as 1st or 2nd round, depending on their performance and subsequent contract signings. Essentially, each of those players will either be re-signed by the Reds in 2020 or will be replaced by rookie draft picks.

What we gave up:

Homer Bailey...which is just amazing for us since he was literally not worth a damn thing. The Dodgers will almost certainly release him as soon as the trade is made official. There are some sort of Luxury Tax loopholes that I don't understand that explain why the Dodgers would do this. They are trying to clear cap space to sign Harper.

Jeter Downs. A 1st round pick in 2017 (in the competitive balance round, basically a top of the 2nd round pick) who showed good raw tools at 2B, but has not converted them to stats yet. He's still very young and projects to be an above average hitter with good power, but he's at least 2 years from the major leagues. Maybe 3 years. He has a lot to prove, but the talent is definitely there (he was rated our 8th best prospect at the time of the trade. He's now shown as the 7th ranked prospect in the Dodgers system).

Josiah Gray. A 2nd round pick in 2018. He's got a sick fastball with a slider that could match it, but he has shown inconsistency. He was drafted out of college, but has the developmental path of a high school player because he didn't take up pitching until after entering college. If things break right for him, he'd be a good middle of the rotation player for the Dodgers, playing off his fastball and, if it develops, his slider. He is also at least 2, if not 3 or 4, years away from the majors. That said, some Reds bloggers, especially Doug Gray over at https://redsminorleagues.com/2018/12/21/reds-acquire-alex-wood-yasiel-puig-matt-kemp-in-trade/ , were REALLY high on his potential for our team.


TL;DR 
We pay a net 7.45 million dollars this year (and 2.45 million total over the two years), we give away a piece of shit pitcher and 2 high upside but far from major league ready prospects who we recently drafted with competitive balance picks in the 1st and 2nd round, respectively.

for

1 year of a starting level RF, 1 year of a middle of the rotation left handed starter, 1 year of a possible impact bench and platoon outfielder and a bench/backup/minor league 3B/C. And if, at the end of the 2019 year, the the two most attractive parts of the package play well and turn down the Reds' qualifying offers (or don't sign long term with us in some other way), we get a 1st or 2nd round compensatory pick, based on how much the contract they do sign is worth (if 50 million or more, first round. if less, 2nd round) for each player.

Theoretically, those draft picks have the same approximate value as Downs and Gray in the sense of their draft spot (and it's not like either has significantly overplayed their draft slot to this point).  

So if you want to view it as a Homer for Puig/Wood/Kemp deal, you'd be forgiven for that simplification.

Overall, it's pretty freaking incredible.

[samhain]

I had pretty much written this team off for posers this offseason, but this is a pretty good move. They swapped salary burdens, but managed to get guys that actually can be useful for a guy that probably never will be again.

Alex Wood is the key here IMO. He's no ace, but he's still probably the best pitcher on the staff right now.

I think Kemp could still get flipped this offseason.

[Bengalsrob]

(12-22-2018, 02:12 AM)kevin Wrote: I know.  There is already a Reds trade Homer Bailey thread.  I like to put the spin on all the Reds got in this deal.  I would have traded Bailey for a bag of peanuts, so I'm amazed Reds walk away with so much.  It's as if Santa just came early to Reds and loaded Reds up under the tree.

I just woke up and seen that on the news...wow, I'd have flat out given Bailey away if I could have found a taker! Puig is kind of a knucklehead, but he's a bit like Rose; you love him if he's on your team, but hate him if he's on another team. Merry Christmas, Reds!!

[McC]

ESPN is all over this. Of course, they only mention the Reds in passing and go into great detail about the Dodgers.

[fredtoast]

Wood is far from a dominate #1 starter, but those guys are like great starting QBs. They are so rare that lots of teams don't have even one. He is not a one year wonder and is by far the best starter on our staff.

[*bengalfan74*]

(12-21-2018, 11:35 PM)cinci4life Wrote: None. Dodgers got Bailey and his contract.

(12-21-2018, 11:55 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: Red's get 7 million from the Dodgers in this deal.   The Dodgers clear about 10 Million under luxury tax to sign probably Harper,  that is my take.  

Such good news !! Can't believe somebody took him. Perhaps this means the Reds are really gonna try and turn this fiasco around ?

The beginning of the end of rebuilding ?

[*bengalfan74*]

(12-22-2018, 02:04 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Wood is far from a dominate #1 starter, but those guys are like great starting QBs. They are so rare that lots of teams don't have even one. He is not a one year wonder and is by far the best starter on our staff.

Perhaps a number 3 ? even 2

[grampahol]

(12-22-2018, 12:29 AM)cinci4life Wrote: Bailey agreed to waive his 10 and 5 rights only if he was immediately released after the trade so he's actually a free agent now.

Wow! That means we can get Bailey back as soon as he becomes the next big thing.. OK, to be fair I don't actually want him back, but it only makes sense in a way only the Reds front office would understand.. C'mon, you know you want Bailey back to become our next ace.. 

[grampahol]

Am I the only one who kept thinking the Reds were never actually going to strike a deal again the rest of my natural born life?
For the past several years I kept logging into reds.com hoping against all hope to read about some blockbuster trade that never seemed to materialize..
For the first time in the past several years it actually happened and I didn't even log into the Reds site before finding out, instead I read it here first.. Congratulations SS.. You beat the Reds to it.. 

[Yojimbo]

(12-22-2018, 02:41 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Perhaps a number 3 ? even 2

Current rotation as I see it:

Castillo - R
Wood - L
Roark - R
Disco - R
Mahle/Romano/Santillan/Lorenzen/Stephenson


In this scenario I would call Wood a 1b, using his left hand to split the righties. If say Roark was a lefty as well: Wood - Castillo - Roark and then Wood would be top of the rotation. If the team signs Keuchel, Wood would then slide down to third in rotation: Keuchel - Castillo - Wood - Roark.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

Wow! Look at the Reds! Too bad they aren't paying attention down the street at PBS....

[guyofthetiger]

Heard the Dodgers may have already released Homer. The trade was financially motivated. Not talent motivated.

[Jojo the Circus Boy]

(12-22-2018, 01:55 AM)Circleville Guy Wrote: This trade blows my mind, wasn’t expecting this kind of shakeup.  I do look for Kemp to be traded before the season starts. I’m excited that moves have been made!

I am actually getting excited about the Reds too. Seeing the front office making some moves and showing some aggression to make the team better shows they care and I believe the other fans will take notice. I wonder if Mike Brown would do the same...
well, hope springs eternal (should be Marvin's slogan if he's back next year)

[kevin]

(12-21-2018, 07:36 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Yes, you read that correctly.  Homer Bailey is headed to the LA Dodgers, Reds to get Puig and others.

https://www.daytondailynews.com/sports/reds-dodgers-finalizing-multiple-player-blockbuster-trade/hIs8EXFjoz2Nx3RLnycH8N/?fbclid=IwAR0E_hxJJuBvixtuL-rgMgBfDZiZanvFOeSHbbWZSXe-y_LiUDQF0B4s-E0

For those of you that follow Baseball closely, is this a good trade, or did the Reds screw themselves?

Once again, I say this staff member of Bengals has the story in reverse.  The news is not that Reds traded Homer Bailey who has done very little in years and is over paid.  The news is that Reds got Wood, Kemp, Puig.   You say Puig and others.  Puig not even biggest part of this trade. As a baseball fan, not just a Reds fan, but a baseball fan, I know these players.  I tell all in Cincy that Reds were in dire need of pitching. Adding Tanner Roark last week and now Alex Wood is a huge major upgrade to the worst pitching staff in baseball.  These 2 easily become 2 of the 5 starting pitchers. Now who the other 3 starters are, I have no idea because Reds pitching so awful. That is why another veteran pitcher would be even better.  As for the outfielders added, I would put Kemp ahead of Puig in this deal.  Both will easily start for last place Reds, plus Reds stole from Dodgers in Rule 5 Joe who plays every position. Reds must keep him all season on Reds 25 man roster or Dodgers get him back, but last place Reds easily can keep him all year on Reds. 

So saying Reds trade Bailey is like when it was said Reds traded May and Helms.   The real story was getting Morgan, Geronimo, Billingham, Menke.   Here the real story is getting Wood, Kemp, Puig.   Bengals Fans and Reds Fans may not know of these players, so I tell Cincy Fans that these players just made Reds a lot better.  The Dodgers just won the National League 2 years in a row and went back to back World Series.  In getting Wood, Kemp, Puig and Joe from Dodgers in last week, the Reds have added First Place talent to their stinking last place team. 

So Cincinnati ends 2018 with 2 Last Place teams in Bengals and Reds.   It appears Reds have added better manager and coaches and players to try to be more competitive in 2019.  Let the Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers and Pirates know the Reds are doing everything to get out of last place and move ahead of them. 

To Bengals Fans, this would be like hearing Bengals just traded Eifert who hasn't done much in years, for 3 Pro Bowl players.  Yes, we could put all the focus on the Bengal leaving, but wouldn't the real story be bringing in 3 Pro Bowl players.   Wood, Kemp, Puig have all been All-Stars and Joe has been a minor league all-star.  So Cincinnati Fans may not know it, but Santa just put a lot of gifts under Reds tree, and Reds didn't trade much to get them. 

[Circleville Guy]

(12-23-2018, 02:36 AM)Jojo the Circus Boy Wrote: I am actually getting excited about the Reds too. Seeing the front office making some moves and showing some aggression to make the team better shows they care and I believe the other fans will take notice. I wonder if Mike Brown would do the same...
well, hope springs eternal (should be Marvin's slogan if he's back next year)

This is already close to a 180 for a team when you factor in the new coaching staff too. It’s really exciting and I do believe that they’re not finished yet. They’re one starting pitcher away from being a playoff contender in 2019. The Reds finally are adding players instead of worrying about what bobble head to give away. Mike Brown has to know that fans are done with Marvin, I look for attendance to keep falling dramatically if Marvin is back. The days of the Browns being 2 automatic wins is done and the days of the Steelers owning Marvin still exist. The fans of both teams are fed up with lack of effort being the main culprit to losing. The lightbulb seems to have turned on for the Reds.

[kevin]

Maybe one person at a family Christmas party Friday night on seeing this trade on his smart phone said it best. As if Santa had just put Reds presents under the tree. He said can you imagine these guys in the same line-up with Votto.

[kevin]

(12-23-2018, 03:01 AM)Circleville Guy Wrote: This is already close to a 180 for a team when you factor in the new coaching staff too. It’s really exciting and I do believe that they’re not finished yet. They’re one starting pitcher away from being a playoff contender in 2019. The Reds finally are adding players instead of worrying about what bobble head to give away. Mike Brown has to know that fans are done with Marvin, I look for attendance to keep falling dramatically if Marvin is back. The days of the Browns being 2 automatic wins is done and the days of the Steelers owning Marvin still exist. The fans of both teams are fed up with lack of effort being the main culprit to losing. The lightbulb seems to have turned on for the Reds.

I agree. Reds have been too much into Bobble Head Night.  They have also milked the cow dry on Big Red Machine 1970's events. Unless Pete, Johnny, Joe and Big Dog Tony are suiting up and playing, those don't put wins on the board.  Great to see the manager, coaching and player moves and as Reds say, they aren't done yet.  The worst has been last place Reds on TV talking about what The Cowboy is eating after the game, that is some real last place team boring summer nonsense. Add in the Reds announcers Birthday salutes to Aggie Sue in Hogan City or Zeke in Perkyville, real boring Hee Haw stuff. They were one step away from giving the Cincinnati WKOP Les Nesman Farm Reports during the games. So great to see Reds might be getting back to having real baseball to watch and less Nesman.

[Circleville Guy]

(12-23-2018, 03:26 AM)kevin Wrote: I agree. Reds have been too much into Bobble Head Night.  They have also milked the cow dry on Big Red Machine 1970's events. Unless Pete, Johnny, Joe and Big Dog Tony are suiting up and playing, those don't put wins on the board.  Great to see the manager, coaching and player moves and as Reds say, they aren't done yet.  The worst has been last place Reds on TV talking about what The Cowboy is eating after the game, that is some real last place team boring summer nonsense. Add in the Reds announcers Birthday salutes to Aggie Sue in Hogan City or Zeke in Perkyviile, real boring Hee Haw stuff. So great to see Reds might be getting back to having real baseball to watch.

The Big Red Machine means very little to young Reds fans, it was over 40 years ago. Kids don’t follow stats like they did before baseball encouraged the whole steroid farce. I too get annoyed listening to the Cowboy/Food angle. The Reds and Baseball were my first love. Effort and competence go a long way with me. Young fans need to see winning to get hooked for life and the older fans need to see a well planned effort. Anyways, it feels like the Reds are interested in winning this year, it’s been awhile!

[Fullrock]

(12-21-2018, 09:13 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: https://www.truebluela.com/2018/8/4/17651988/alex-wood-injury-dodgers-left-adductor-tendonitis-disabled-list

https://lasportshub.com/2017/05/30/dodgers-alex-wood-dl/

https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dn-dodgers-alex-wood-injured-20160312-story.html

The dude is completely brittle and injury ridden.  Likely from playing baseball year round as he was coming up.

Well, let's just hope the Reds can support him well enough to keep him going to the All-Star Break..

Brittle and injury ridden? The guy threw 172 innings in 2014, 189 innings in 2015, and more than 150 innings in 2017 and 2018. He probably would have thrown more the last 2 years, but ther Dodgers used him out of the bullpen a handful of games both seasons. 

I'll give you that he did battle through an injury plagued 2016 season, but calling him brittle and injury ridden is not accurate.