Reds moving towards Sonny Gray trade

[*bengalfan74*]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/reds-making-progress-toward-potential-acquisition-of-sonny-gray.html

I'm on the fence about him

[SunsetBengal]

As a 3-4 starter?

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-19-2019, 06:13 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: As a 3-4 starter?

Yep, I'm just not sure he's more than that ? I suppose they're hoping he can be more ?

[SunsetBengal]

(01-19-2019, 06:27 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yep, I'm just not sure he's more than that ? I suppose they're hoping he can be more ?

I see that last season he posted a 4.9 era, but his lifetime is 3.66, and that he came up with the A's.  Could it be that he just didn't fit well with NY?  NYC life isn't for everybody..

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-19-2019, 07:05 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I see that last season he posted a 4.9 era, but his lifetime is 3.66, and that he came up with the A's.  Could it be that he just didn't fit well with NY?  NYC life isn't for everybody..

Lets hope

I know it wouldn't be for me

[CJD]

PROS:
In 2017, the Yankees traded the #67 ranked prospect, the #98 ranked prospect and a former first round prospect who was the #9 ranked prospect in the Yankees season in 2016 to get Sonny Gray from the Athletics. (I.E. He was worth some very valuable prospects in 2017, less than 2 years ago)

At the time, he had a sub 3.5 ERA and had 2 and a half years left of team control. For his career, at the time, he had an ERA+ of 114 (with + statistics, 100 is considered league average). The guy undeniably has talent. In fact, he came in third for AL Cy Young in 2015. He has the ability to be a top of the rotation arm.

CONS:
In his time with the Yankees, his ERA ballooned to 4.51. His walk rate increased from 2.9/9IP to 3.9/9IP. His HR rate increased from 0.8 to 1.1 per 9IP. His ERA+ dropped to 98 (below league average). His WHIP increased from 1.2 to 1.416. He is in the final year of his contract. Essentially every statistics that is relevant went up during his time with the Yankees

The reason I say all this is because there is a good chance that Gray still has the ability to be a #1 or #2 pitcher. Especially on our staff. If we can get him for a low cost, that'd be quite the steal. But what are the odds that he becomes that again?

I want to believe the Reds will not give up a whole lot here. If we give up a top 10 prospect I'd be really upset. But if we traded a player with high ceiling but with bust potential, like Aquino, then I think that'd be a great trade. I can't really judge it until I know what we gave up (or are planning to give up).

He's only 29 years old, so he has the potential to bounce back this year. New York is a very high stakes situation that not all players are cut out for (Same thing happened with Matt Harvey, who pitched much better once he arrived here.)

If this trade goes through I will be cautiously optimistic about it unless the price tag is insane...

[Circleville Guy]

I like the move. He pitched bad in NY but good on the road. He’s not an Ace but should make a nice number 4. The Reds already have guys as decent for that spot but starters get hurt every year. At 7.5 mil, this is nice depth and let’s the Reds keep their top prospects. I think that the Reds are a .500 team with an outside shot at the Wild Card. It seems like this is only a one year deal too.

[McC]

(01-19-2019, 07:05 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I see that last season he posted a 4.9 era, but his lifetime is 3.66, and that he came up with the A's.  Could it be that he just didn't fit well with NY?  NYC life isn't for everybody..

I think it's less about NYC life than it is about NYC media.   They make Cincinnati media look like nuns.

[*psychdoctor*]

Gray is a classic case of a player who lost confidence on big market team. He is similar to Roark, Wood in terms of talent, which are mid rotation type of guys. If the new pitching coach can fix him, then Reds could sign him to an extension. Kluber is still out there. Not sure how I feel about moving Senzel for him though. But if the Reds bring in Kluber, then I would say they are 85 win team.

[Yojimbo]

I’d pass at this point. The pitching staff doesn’t need any more mid rotation guys. It needs an ace and Gray ain’t it. If they aren’t going for an ace, I’m fine with pitching they’ve already acquired.

[guyofthetiger]

I can tell you that I had Sonny Gray on my fantasy team last year and I dumped him. He never panned out for me.

[grampahol]

It's another one of those "we won't know until we know" kind of deals. Rumor is they're planning to trade Shed Long for him..  I don't put a huge amount of stock into people's fantasy picks.. They're either feast or famine kinds of things...not particularly reliable. 

[Circleville Guy]

(01-20-2019, 12:34 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: I’d pass at this point. The pitching staff doesn’t need any more mid rotation guys. It needs an ace and Gray ain’t it. If they aren’t going for an ace, I’m fine with pitching they’ve already acquired.

It’s true that he’s not an ace but every year there are guys that miss starts with injury or are having a really bad year. I look at it as competitive depth. The team should be watchable for the first time in like 5 years. I would have preferred an Ace but at least the Reds are keeping their best prospects. It’s a 1 year deal that they can flip or maybe even keep. He may pitch his butt off for that next contract.

[*psychdoctor*]

(01-20-2019, 06:26 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: It’s true that he’s not an ace but every year there are guys that miss starts with injury or are having a really bad year. I look at it as competitive depth. The team should be watchable for the first time in like 5 years. I would have preferred an Ace but at least the Reds are keeping their best prospects. It’s a 1 year deal that they can flip or maybe even keep. He may pitch his butt off for that next contract.

Today news state the deal is held up by the Red's offer to Gray for an extension.  If I remember correctly, wasn't Gray 3rd in Cy Young voting in 2015?

With that said, I was hoping they would extend Alex Wood because I think he is probably the team's best starter as of 1/21/19.  

[cinci4life]

The deal is official.

https://www.daytondailynews.com/sports/reds-complete-trade-with-yankees-adding-another-starting-pitcher/LXREthPkOPCDzywbhRGSyL/

[*bengalfan74*]

I would liked to have done better than Gray but hey at least that may go .500 now, they're moving in the right direction finally.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-21-2019, 07:27 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I would liked to have done better than Gray but hey at least that may go .500 now, they're moving in the right direction finally.

Hell, if they can get enough solid innings from the starters, to not have to use the bullpen for 4 innings every night, that'll be a boost in and of itself.

[*psychdoctor*]

I think this is a decent move. The Red's lock up Gray for 4 years with option of 5th year if things works out. He is a good ground-ball inducing pitcher and is only 29. He is no ace. This allows the Red's to get Senzel a shot in Center Field and have a formidable offense.

Peraza/Winker
Gennett
Votto
Suarez
Senzel
Puig
Peraza/Winker/Schebler/Kemp
Barnhart

[*psychdoctor*]

D. Keuchel is still out there but I do not think the Red's go for him or Kluber. This will allow them to sign extension for Gennett, Wood, and possibly Puig, if it works out with him here in Cincinnati. This also allows them to go after Pollack CF but I personally think Senzel is a better option even if he gives up some defensive prowess.

I do not think they move much north of 82 wins however, without Castillo finding his zone or a true ace. With that said, the Red's will have a good offense, hell they had a good offense last year. I still worry about Vertigo issues with Senzel.

[CJD]

That is an absolutely spectacular deal. basically 4 years/ 38 million for a pitcher who was considered a top end starting pitcher a year and a half ago.

Last year, these are his home and away splits.


The away numbers are insanely better than his home splits.
The natural inclination is to think that must have to do with pitching in a hitter's parks like Yankee Stadium (and GABP).

But it doesn't seem like pitching at home is that big of a disadvantage for Yankees pitchers, as the rest of the staff, nearly uniformly, performed better at home than away.

So it must be fly balls right?

Well, Gray is actually a pretty great groundball pitcher, ranking 7th among pitchers with 130 or more innings pitched.

So what's the deal?

The idea that he just doesn't meld with the Yankees, a high pressure high expectations situation, is something that has been thrown around and it has merit. It may be an entirely mental thing.

These two articles really sold me on the potential for Gray bouncing back in a big way in 2019:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25385411/here-why-other-teams-want-new-york-yankees-sonny-gray
https://www.redreporter.com/2019/1/21/18189845/reds-yankees-trade-sonny-gray-shed-long