Official. Reds add Sonny Gray to Roark & Wood Added.

[Circleville Guy]

(01-23-2019, 01:05 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: So, insight from a former MLB pitcher or assumptions by some message board guys. Hmm hard for me to choose which to believe...

Your reply make no sense to me. That former pitcher is probably right in that some pitchers do that for that reason. I’m just saying that Yankee fans were griping that their coach changed the percentages on pitch selection. Pitching coaches can preach throwing more fastballs or more offspeed stuff. Since the guy you spoke with said that pitchers will do that, it sounds like he’s not talking about Gray specially doing it because he is hurt.

[grampahol]

(01-25-2019, 02:27 AM)Circleville Guy Wrote: You’re still probably gonna start out in the hole by pitching the teams 8th and 9th best pitchers on the team to start every game. I just don’t like the idea and it takes away the starter knowing when he comes into a game, basically it’s making 5 starters middle relievers. I don’t like the idea. I doubt that any starter would. They’re whole warm up routine would change and be more like a reliever.

If I'm not mistaken isn't this what Mr Genius, Brian Price was tinkering with at one point? I might be thinking about something different, but it seemed like he wanted to use relievers as starters at one point. 

[CJD]

(01-25-2019, 02:27 AM)Circleville Guy Wrote: You’re still probably gonna start out in the hole by pitching the teams 8th and 9th best pitchers on the team to start every game. I just don’t like the idea and it takes away the starter knowing when he comes into a game, basically it’s making 5 starters middle relievers. I don’t like the idea. I doubt that any starter would. They’re whole warm up routine would change and be more like a reliever.

Well, that's the interesting part. Relievers aren't always the 8th or 9th best pitchers on the team. Look no further than 2018, when, arguably, 4 of our 5 best pitchers were all relief pitchers (Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Jared Hughes, David Hernandez and then the 1 starter Luis Castillo).

Now, we did improve our starting rotation with Roark, Wood and Gray, but it's hard to argue that Hernandez, Iglesias, Lorenzen and Hughes won't likely stay in the top 7 pitchers on the team, assuming Wood and potentiallly either Gray or Roark jump into the top 5.

I understand your point about the starters not knowing when they are coming in. But if your goal with the opener is just a single inning, you can have the starter simply warm up with the intention of entering in the 2nd inning. It shouldn't be too large of an inconvenience for them.

I have not seen this strategy in action and I don't know that we will use it. But the statistics are there to support the value of it, even if it is a little difficult to navigate. I look forward to seeing what our coaches decide to do. I'm sure whichever direction they choose to go with will be considered heavily and optimized per this team's strengths and weaknesses.

[CJD]

(01-22-2019, 09:10 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: I’m luke warm on Gray. I do like that he is looking forward to eating some Skyline and that his fastball hasn’t really dropped off at all. My biggest concern was an article I was reading on CBS pointing out that Gray changed his pitch selection last year, adding a splitter and reducing his fastball 45% to 25% and change-up from 15% to 5%. I work with a former professional pitcher, just a cup of coffee in The Show, Joe Messman. I asked him about the pitching change and he said pitchers will do that when they start feeling some discomfort in their shoulder or elbow. So, biggest concern is damaged goods/ declining athlete.

I read an article that said the majority of the Yankees pitching staff leans heavily on off speed pitches and that it is a coaching decision to do so.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/07/19/new-york-yankees-fastball-rate

Quote:Here’s the cutting edge part: New York's pitchers threw only 40.7% fastballs in the series. (Fastballs here are defined as four-seam and two-seam fastballs, not cut fastballs.)

For the Yankees, this was not an anomaly. They throw the fewest fastballs in baseball, and it’s not even close. They average a fastball rate of just 43.1%. Houston is next lowest at 47.3%.
What makes New York's low fastball usage all the more surprising is that its pitchers have the highest average velocity of any team in baseball (94.3 mph, tied with Pittsburgh).
Time out.
Take a minute to let that sink in: The Yankees have the most velocity in baseball, and yet they throw the fewest fastballs in baseball.

[Yojimbo]

(01-25-2019, 02:41 AM)Circleville Guy Wrote: Your reply make no sense to me. That former pitcher is probably right in that some pitchers do that for that reason. I’m just saying that Yankee fans were griping that their coach changed the percentages on pitch selection. Pitching coaches can preach throwing more fastballs or more offspeed stuff. Since the guy you spoke with said that pitchers will do that, it sounds like he’s not talking about Gray specially doing it because he is hurt.

It wasn't pitch percentage that is an indicator of arm problems, it's the adding of a splitter, which results in less fastball/change-up usage.

[Yojimbo]

(01-25-2019, 10:07 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I read an article that said the majority of the Yankees pitching staff leans heavily on off speed pitches and that it is a coaching decision to do so.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/07/19/new-york-yankees-fastball-rate

except Gray wasn't even anywhere close to ~40% fastball usage. his career usage, prior to last year, was 45%. It dipped to 25% last season, not even inline with the low rate of the Yankees pitching staff.

[CJD]

(01-25-2019, 11:00 AM)Yojimbo Wrote: except Gray wasn't even anywhere close to ~40% fastball usage. his career usage, prior to last year, was 45%. It dipped to 25% last season, not even inline with the low rate of the Yankees pitching staff.

Fangraphs has him at 35.1% fastballs.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=130&type=4&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,a

[Yojimbo]

(01-25-2019, 11:21 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Fangraphs has him at 35.1% fastballs.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=130&type=4&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,a

I’m trying to find the article I’ve been quoting stats from. I’m probably not remembering the exact number correctly. It was a CBS article from the day before the trade was finalized.

[Circleville Guy]

(01-25-2019, 03:54 AM)grampahol Wrote: If I'm not mistaken isn't this what Mr Genius, Brian Price was tinkering with at one point? I might be thinking about something different, but it seemed like he wanted to use relievers as starters at one point. 

It was rumored that Price was thinking about this, I don’t remember him trying it. It would probably work at times but there are so many downsides to it, I just don’t get it. It seems like a good way to start out down 5 runs by starting a guy that isn’t good enough to be a starter, closer or setup man. I’m a traditionalist, I love baseball as it was when I was a kid. I hate ideas like if a game goes to extra innings, you automatically put a runner on second just to shorten a game. Patience is part of the original recipe of what baseball is.

[Circleville Guy]

(01-25-2019, 10:02 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Well, that's the interesting part. Relievers aren't always the 8th or 9th best pitchers on the team. Look no further than 2018, when, arguably, 4 of our 5 best pitchers were all relief pitchers (Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Jared Hughes, David Hernandez and then the 1 starter Luis Castillo).

Now, we did improve our starting rotation with Roark, Wood and Gray, but it's hard to argue that Hernandez, Iglesias, Lorenzen and Hughes won't likely stay in the top 7 pitchers on the team, assuming Wood and potentiallly either Gray or Roark jump into the top 5.

I understand your point about the starters not knowing when they are coming in. But if your goal with the opener is just a single inning, you can have the starter simply warm up with the intention of entering in the 2nd inning. It shouldn't be too large of an inconvenience for them.

I have not seen this strategy in action and I don't know that we will use it. But the statistics are there to support the value of it, even if it is a little difficult to navigate. I look forward to seeing what our coaches decide to do. I'm sure whichever direction they choose to go with will be considered heavily and optimized per this team's strengths and weaknesses.

Wasn’t Hughes and Hernandez the setup guys, with Iglesias being the main closer? I included them as the top guys. They can’t be used as opener, setup and closer at the same time.

[CJD]

(01-25-2019, 06:21 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: Wasn’t Hughes and Hernandez the setup guys, with Iglesias being the main closer? I included them as the top guys. They can’t be used as opener, setup and closer at the same time.

Well, if you use your setup man as an opener, you potentially allow your starter to go into the 8th inning meaning you can go straight to your closer.

The concept of an opener isn't a situation where you need more relievers. It's literally just shuffling the order of the pitchers.

If A is the Starting pitcher, B is the reliever and C is the closer, the traditional strategy is ABC whereas the opener strategy is BAC.

What BAC allows is you to match up your opponent's top 4 to 5 hitters with a reliever more suited against them and then letting your starter start with easier hitters, catch his rhythm and go deeper into the game while avoiding the best hitters a 3rd time.

[Circleville Guy]

(01-25-2019, 10:56 AM)Yojimbo Wrote: It wasn't pitch percentage that is an indicator of arm problems, it's the adding of a splitter, which results in less fastball/change-up usage.

I was just saying that their fans were complaining that their coach had changed the percentage of pitch selection with some of the pitchers so much that it was causing poor results with more than one pitcher, including Gray. They were stating that the coach was behind Gray changing his fastball percentage. I don’t know if that’s true, it was just in a thread that some of their fans were complaining about.

[Circleville Guy]

(01-25-2019, 06:28 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Well, if you use your setup man as an opener, you potentially allow your starter to go into the 8th inning meaning you can go straight to your closer.

The concept of an opener isn't a situation where you need more relievers. It's literally just shuffling the order of the pitchers.

If A is the Starting pitcher, B is the reliever and C is the closer, the traditional strategy is ABC whereas the opener strategy is BAC.

What BAC allows is you to match up your opponent's top 4 to 5 hitters with a reliever more suited against them and then letting your starter start with easier hitters, catch his rhythm and go deeper into the game while avoiding the best hitters a 3rd time.

Potentially, yes. You also have that reliever warming up as a starter, which is also completely new and different. I understand what you’re saying, I’m just not a fan of it, that doesn’t make me right though. I just don’t see how for years, starters could throw 200 innings and complete games and now they can’t. They’re bigger, stronger and have more technology and quicker rehabs. Nolan Ryan swears that starters aren’t stretched and don’t throw enough. I remember starters always ice their arms right after the game, I rarely see that during an interview after the game. I don’t know, maybe I just miss old baseball. I miss old music and original movies too, so that’s probably part of it.

[CJD]

(01-25-2019, 06:42 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: Potentially, yes. You also have that reliever warming up as a starter, which is also completely new and different. I understand what you’re saying, I’m just not a fan of it, that doesn’t make me right though. I just don’t see how for years, starters could throw 200 innings and complete games and now they can’t. They’re bigger, stronger and have more technology and quicker rehabs. Nolan Ryan swears that starters aren’t stretched and don’t throw enough. I remember starters always ice their arms  right after the game, I rarely see that during an interview after the game. I don’t know, maybe I just miss old baseball. I miss old music and original movies too, so that’s probably part of it.

I think with the introduction of sabermetrics and all the weird statistics that come with it, teams have just become very good at optimization of player use.

I'm sure pitchers nowadays can still go 200 innings, it's more teams just don't want them to because, say, they have some sort of statistic that says keeping a pitcher under 150 innings per year not only increases their efficiency but increases the duration of their career as well (just made this idea up as an example of how those stats and trends can affect team building decision making).

Remember, there was a time not too long ago when teams didn't even track OPS and WAR. Those were concepts created with sabermetrics and moneyball.

There's also the consideration that an understanding of launch angles and gapping means hitters are getting better and better each year as well. I often ponder if Nolan Ryan could strike out Joey Votto or Mike Trout the way he could the players of the 70s and 80s. 

The game is constantly evolving and, as more data is found and used, decisions improve.

That's why my stance on all of this is generally "if our coaches do something, I assume there is a good reason for it."

If they use an opener, I will think this. If they don't use an opener, I will also think this. It's why I'm so excited that we have a new manager who is statistically minded rather than our old worn out "traditionalist" coaches that never had success here.

Only time will tell, but for the time being I am putting my trust in the coaching staff until they give me a reason not to :).

[Circleville Guy]

(01-25-2019, 07:27 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I think with the introduction of sabermetrics and all the weird statistics that come with it, teams have just become very good at optimization of player use.

I'm sure pitchers nowadays can still go 200 innings, it's more teams just don't want them to because, say, they have some sort of statistic that says keeping a pitcher under 150 innings per year not only increases their efficiency but increases the duration of their career as well (just made this idea up as an example of how those stats and trends can affect team building decision making).

Remember, there was a time not too long ago when teams didn't even track OPS and WAR. Those were concepts created with sabermetrics and moneyball.

There's also the consideration that an understanding of launch angles and gapping means hitters are getting better and better each year as well. I often ponder if Nolan Ryan could strike out Joey Votto or Mike Trout the way he could the players of the 70s and 80s. 

The game is constantly evolving and, as more data is found and used, decisions improve.

That's why my stance on all of this is generally "if our coaches do something, I assume there is a good reason for it."

If they use an opener, I will think this. If they don't use an opener, I will also think this. It's why I'm so excited that we have a new manager who is statistically minded rather than our old worn out "traditionalist" coaches that never had success here.

Only time will tell, but for the time being I am putting my trust in the coaching staff until they give me a reason not to :).

They definitely break the game down so much better now and I do get the money ball philosophy. I just think that some little old school things probably get lost anytime the majority of focus is on new ideas. That money ball movie kinda made the number cruncher more important than the old school eyes and ears scouts. Don’t forget that the team that won at the end had those old school scouts. Nolan Ryan threw faster than Chapman and any other person ever, he also had a really good curve ball. Yes, he could strike out anyone... including Votto. Votto isn’t a better hitter than Rose was, he’s just better as an overall OBP Guy.

[Bengalsrob]

(01-22-2019, 09:10 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: I’m luke warm on Gray. I do like that he is looking forward to eating some Skyline and that his fastball hasn’t really dropped off at all. My biggest concern was an article I was reading on CBS pointing out that Gray changed his pitch selection last year, adding a splitter and reducing his fastball 45% to 25% and change-up from 15% to 5%. I work with a former professional pitcher, just a cup of coffee in The Show, Joe Messman. I asked him about the pitching change and he said pitchers will do that when they start feeling some discomfort in their shoulder or elbow. So, biggest concern is damaged goods/ declining athlete.

When he came to the Yankees, I heard all the hype about him being so competitive, and I think he pitched well at Oakland. BUT, I kept waiting for that pitcher to show up, and he NEVER did. Looked like an also ran (though a notch or two above Homer Bailey), but certainly not a top notch starter (or reliever) with the Yankees. Hopefully he finds himself here again.