Mixon - Could he become a Top 3 back this year?

[Ravage]

(03-25-2019, 03:21 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Bell, Hunt, and Gordon in the AFC.
For the entire NFL, add Gurley, Elliott, McCaffrey, Barkley, and Kamara.

Based on past performance, I can see Bell and Gurley. But who knows what they'll look like going forward between Bell's year off and Gurley's knees. Especially in the case of Gurley. If reports about his knees being arthritic are accurate, we might of seen the best he has to offer and it'll be all downhill (in a bad way) from here. Dude had 4 carries for 10 (2.5 per) in the NFC title game, and 10 carries for 35 (3.5 per) in the Super Bowl. Something just isn't right with his wheels, or at least something wasn't right when they needed him most.

Hunt's out at least half the season, and it'll also be about a full year since he last played when he does come back. 

Gordon? Eh, maybe? I guess? But one 1,000 yard season, and one year averaging 4 or more a carry (different seasons) in 4 years isn't what I'd call top 3 HB material. And, as others have noted, he has durability issues, though so does Mixon.

Only ones on that list I might rather have would be Elliott, McCaffery, and Kamara. Maybe Barkley but I still just don't trust Penn St. HB's; he'll have to duplicate last year before I start to be sold on him.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-28-2019, 06:05 PM)Ravage Wrote: Based on past performance, I can see Bell and Gurley. But who knows what they'll look like going forward between Bell's year off and Gurley's knees. Especially in the case of Gurley. If reports about his knees being arthritic are accurate, we might of seen the best he has to offer and it'll be all downhill (in a bad way) from here. Dude had 4 carries for 10 (2.5 per) in the NFC title game, and 10 carries for 35 (3.5 per) in the Super Bowl. Something just isn't right with his wheels, or at least something wasn't right when they needed him most.

Hunt's out at least half the season, and it'll also be about a full year since he last played when he does come back. 

Gordon? Eh, maybe? I guess? But one 1,000 yard season, and one year averaging 4 or more a carry (different seasons) in 4 years isn't what I'd call top 3 HB material. And, as others have noted, he has durability issues, though so does Mixon.

Only ones on that list I might rather have would be Elliott, McCaffery, and Kamara. Maybe Barkley but I still just don't trust Penn St. HB's; he'll have to duplicate last year before I start to be sold on him.

You’re looking at Gordon wrong. You have to account for his receiving too.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-28-2019, 06:05 PM)Ravage Wrote: Based on past performance, I can see Bell and Gurley. But who knows what they'll look like going forward between Bell's year off and Gurley's knees. Especially in the case of Gurley. If reports about his knees being arthritic are accurate, we might of seen the best he has to offer and it'll be all downhill (in a bad way) from here. Dude had 4 carries for 10 (2.5 per) in the NFC title game, and 10 carries for 35 (3.5 per) in the Super Bowl. Something just isn't right with his wheels, or at least something wasn't right when they needed him most.

Hunt's out at least half the season, and it'll also be about a full year since he last played when he does come back. 

Gordon? Eh, maybe? I guess? But one 1,000 yard season, and one year averaging 4 or more a carry (different seasons) in 4 years isn't what I'd call top 3 HB material. And, as others have noted, he has durability issues, though so does Mixon.

Only ones on that list I might rather have would be Elliott, McCaffery, and Kamara. Maybe Barkley but I still just don't trust Penn St. HB's; he'll have to duplicate last year before I start to be sold on him.

I agree, every RB has questions. I still wouldn't take any of those RB's over Mixon.

Talent wise he is just as good as any of those guys and if he was running behind that Line that Zeke had before PA got there he would put up even bigger numbers IMO. McCaffery is good but nor him or Kamara can deal out the punishment like Mixon can and he is just as good of a Receiver as they are. Barkley blew my mind last year in the couple times i watched him, he might be different than the other Penn State RB's.

(03-28-2019, 06:46 PM)ochocincos Wrote: You’re looking at Gordon wrong. You have to account for his receiving too.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Have to account for Mixon's receiving too and Melvin just doesn't seem the runner Mixon is everytime i have watched him.

[Ravage]

(03-28-2019, 07:24 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I agree, every RB has questions. I still wouldn't take any of those RB's over Mixon.

Talent wise he is just as good as any of those guys and if he was running behind that Line that Zeke had before PA got there he would put up even bigger numbers IMO. McCaffery is good but nor him or Kamara can deal out the punishment like Mixon can and he is just as good of a Receiver as they are. Barkley blew my mind last year in the couple times i watched him, he might be different than the other Penn State RB's.

I don't know that I would want one of them over Mixon either. Not that I think Mixon is the 'best' in the league, but he's in the conversation for being in that upper-echelon atm. Kamara's had a ton of usage the last few years, McCaffery could be a product of Newton vexing defenses, and like you said, Zeke's running behind a line that PA even almost couldn't have screwed up. Barkley, like I said, I just want to see do it again before I believe.

Those 4 all are dual threats, like Mixon. And of those 5 backs (Mixon, Kamara, McCaffery, Elliott, Barkley) the only one with a catch rate above 80% for their career is Mixon @ 82.02% (73 of 89). Kamara is 79.02% (162 of 205), Elliott is 78.48% (135 of 172), McCaffery is 78.9% (187 of 237), Barkley is the lowest at 75.2% (91 of 121). In fairness, all those other backs have significantly more passes thrown their way than Mixon does, likely due to Gio's presence is my guess.

And as far as Gordon's pass catching ability, he's not bad, but he's no game breaker in the passing game. First, his catch rate is worse than the 5 I just listed: 74.89% (182 of 243). And despite all those catches he's never managed to crack 500 yds receiving in a year. McCaffery's never been below 650, Zeke topped 500 last season, Kamara's never been below 700, Barkley had 700+ last year. Again, Mixon hasn't hit 500 in a season yet either, but he's got the smallest usage rate out of those 5 by a healthy margin, even including the rookie Barkley.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-28-2019, 07:45 PM)Ravage Wrote: I don't know that I would want one of them over Mixon either. Not that I think Mixon is the 'best' in the league, but he's in the conversation for being in that upper-echelon atm. Kamara's had a ton of usage the last few years, McCaffery could be a product of Newton vexing defenses, and like you said, Zeke's running behind a line that PA even almost couldn't have screwed up. Barkley, like I said, I just want to see do it again before I believe.

Those 4 all are dual threats, like Mixon. And of those 5 backs (Mixon, Kamara, McCaffery, Elliott, Barkley) the only one with a catch rate above 80% for their career is Mixon @ 82.02% (73 of 89). Kamara is 79.02% (162 of 205), Elliott is 78.48% (135 of 172), McCaffery is 78.9% (187 of 237), Barkley is the lowest at 75.2% (91 of 121). In fairness, all those other backs have significantly more passes thrown their way than Mixon does, likely due to Gio's presence is my guess.

And as far as Gordon's pass catching ability, he's not bad, but he's no game breaker in the passing game. First, his catch rate is worse than the 5 I just listed: 74.89% (182 of 243). And despite all those catches he's never managed to crack 500 yds receiving in a year. McCaffery's never been below 650, Zeke topped 500 last season, Kamara's never been below 700, Barkley had 700+ last year. Again, Mixon hasn't hit 500 in a season yet either, but he's got the smallest usage rate out of those 5 by a healthy margin, even including the rookie Barkley.

Great numbers Ravage, reps. I hope we start to use Mixon more in the passing game under Taylor and Callahan that is for sure. Didn't even know those catch rates but have known since he was at Oklahoma that he was one of the best in the bidness catching the ball out of the backfield. And with his abilities he can make Defenders miss and take it all the way or he can punish them.

Quite the weapon that i don't think has even scratched the surface since he hasn't been used right since he got here pretty much.

[JWW1971]

(03-28-2019, 02:03 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: And i agree with him, we will see how Turner does but sure seems like a downgrade to me.

Hopefully ZT has got the right guy to fix the o-line but going on his record with the Dolphins, it's not looking to good.

[*bengalfan74*]

Mixon averaged 4.9 yards a carry last season in an offense that after week 6 was pretty pathetic.

This season I'll say 1,350 yards rushing with 8 TD's and 540 yards receiving with 4 TD's.

[impactplaya]

Mixon faced alot more condensed defenses after Green and Dalton went down in regards to throwing to him
Driskel for all his arm.strenght is garbage on vertical throws.
so safties didnt have to fear Driskel beating them deep.
Lazor would use 3 routes with Joe.
in the screen game...check down underneath and wheel route.
Lazor had no imagination with him

[Catmandude123]

(03-25-2019, 02:04 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Mixon has never played a full season.

He has all the talent needed to be one of the top backs in the league.  He just has to show that he can stay healthy.

Missing five games in four years doesn't equate to being often injured especially for a RB.

[fredtoast]

(03-29-2019, 11:42 AM)impactplaya Wrote: Mixon faced alot more condensed defenses after Green and Dalton went down in regards to throwing to him
Driskel for all his arm.strenght is garbage on vertical throws.
so safties didnt have to fear Driskel beating them deep.
Lazor would use  3 routes with Joe.
in the screen game...check down underneath and wheel route.
Lazor had no imagination with him

Even the RBs that catch a ton of passes usually run simple patterns like screens, drags, wheel routes, swing passes, etc.

Route running is a very underrated skill and it takes lots of practice.  Many WRs work on it full time and still struggle to get open just by getting in and out of cuts.  Same with timing patterns.

I agree 100% that both of our RBs need to be used as receivers, and I also agree that more creativity may be required.  But the creativity may be more along the lines of play design that get the RBs into open spaces that have been cleared by other receivers.  It seemed to me that too many times when we did throw to our RBs there was a defender right on top of them.

[fredtoast]

(03-29-2019, 11:45 AM)Catmandude123 Wrote: Missing five games in four years doesn't equate to being often injured especially for a RB.

Missing games every year of his NFL career does.

I like Mixon as much as anyone here.  I think he could transform our offense, but I can't ignore that he has never played a full NFL season.

[*bengalfan74*]

(03-29-2019, 12:14 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Even the RBs that catch a ton of passes usually run simple patterns like screens, drags, wheel routes, swing passes, etc.

Route running is a very underrated skill and it takes lots of practice.  Many WRs work on it full time and still struggle to get open just by getting in and out of cuts.  Same with timing patterns.

I agree 100% that both of our RBs need to be used as receivers, and I also agree that more creativity may be required. But the creativity may be more along the lines of play design that get the RBs into open spaces that have been cleared by other receivers.  It seemed to me that too many times when we did throw to our RBs there was a defender right on top of them.

Bingo !

Zampese was just clueless and Lazor was only a little better. I know it's a drum that's been beat to death and not just here but I truly feel our offense the past 3 seasons has been way to predictable and lacking any real innovation.

It's not about running flea flickers every other play and going all crazy complex offense. But keep the defense somewhat off balance. Mixon is an excellent way to do that.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(03-29-2019, 12:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Missing games every year of his NFL career does.

I like Mixon as much as anyone here.  I think he could transform our offense, but I can't ignore that he has never played a full NFL season.

Neither has Elliot, Fournette, Cook, and plenty of his other peers.

Bell, who most consider the best RB in the league has only done it once in 6 years.

[impactplaya]

(03-29-2019, 01:04 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Bingo !

Zampese was just clueless and Lazor was only a little better. I know it's a drum that's been beat to death and not just here but I truly feel our offense the past 3 seasons has been way to predictable and lacking any real innovation.

It's not about running flea flickers every other play and going all crazy complex offense. But keep the defense somewhat off balance. Mixon is an excellent way to do that.

If Taylor is smart he will take a page out of Todd Haleys book and see how Bell was used on offense. 
they lined Bell up everywhere except oline.
put Gio in backfield Mixon in a slot with any combo of Ross Eifert Boyd on the field

[Bryan]

Mixon is extremely talented so he absolutely could be top 3. That said if we use him enough to put up numbers in the vein of Elliott, Bell, or Gurley, that's a lot of wear on him, my hope is that they use Gio more often than last year to keep Mixon fresh. Not to mention, Gio isn't exactly a slouch. Fingers crossed for a Kamara/Ingram situation.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-29-2019, 08:47 AM)JWW1971 Wrote: Hopefully ZT has got the right guy to fix the o-line but going on his record with the Dolphins, it's not looking to good.

It was just that one season with the weird shit going on that was bad, the year before he had a decent line there. Also had a good line at Texas A&M and likes bigger more directional, physical blockers. Not saying he is great, but Turner has had some success and he might be a good O-line coach for us if we add another decent RT to the roster.

I just really liked Pollack and understand where Mixon was coming from when he was mad about losing him.

(03-29-2019, 12:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Missing games every year of his NFL career does.

I like Mixon as much as anyone here.  I think he could transform our offense, but I can't ignore that he has never played a full NFL season.

He has played two seasons in the NFL, pretty small span.

(03-29-2019, 01:56 PM)Bryan Wrote: Mixon is extremely talented so he absolutely could be top 3. That said if we use him enough to put up numbers in the vein of Elliott, Bell, or Gurley, that's a lot of wear on him, my hope is that they use Gio more often than last year to keep Mixon fresh. Not to mention, Gio isn't exactly a slouch. Fingers crossed for a Kamara/Ingram situation.

Agreed, don't want to ride the Mixon train too hard, keep him fresh as much as we can.

Would like to see him more in the passing game though, cannot say this enough.

[*bengalfan74*]

(03-29-2019, 01:56 PM)Bryan Wrote: Mixon is extremely talented so he absolutely could be top 3. That said if we use him enough to put up numbers in the vein of Elliott, Bell, or Gurley, that's a lot of wear on him, my hope is that they use Gio more often than last year to keep Mixon fresh. Not to mention, Gio isn't exactly a slouch. Fingers crossed for a Kamara/Ingram situation.

Agree,

I hope they spell Mixon with Gio and whoever else a good bit. Gio is no slouch catching passes either ! I just hope they stop that stupid rotating every 3rd series stuff no matter the situation. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-29-2019, 05:12 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Agree,

I hope they spell Mixon with Gio and whoever else a good bit. Gio is no slouch catching passes either ! I just hope they stop that stupid rotating every 3rd series stuff no matter the situation. 

This thread is a good thread cause it is a positive one and i like to be positive. The one thing that drove me nutz for years with Marv pretty much regardless of the OC which is not a coincidence is the predictability of the Offense. I definately think this could be the biggest reason why we will have success now especially on Offense.

An offensive minded coach coaching these players like Mixon, Gio, Green, Boyd, Ross, Eifert?

Could be great honestly, as long as the Line is decent and I DO believe Turner will be better than PA...

[*bengalfan74*]

(03-29-2019, 05:25 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: This thread is a good thread cause it is a positive one and i like to be positive. The one thing that drove me nutz for years with Marv pretty much regardless of the OC which is not a coincidence is the predictability of the Offense. I definately think this could be the biggest reason why we will have success now especially on Offense.

An offensive minded coach coaching these players like Mixon, Gio, Green, Boyd, Ross, Eifert?

Could be great honestly, as long as the Line is decent and I DO believe Turner will be better than PA...

Yep

I really can't wait to see what they do with Ross. I'm not saying he's the next Jerry Rice but I do think there's untapped ability there. And I also think we left yardage off the boards with Mixon's misuse last year.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-29-2019, 05:36 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yep

I really can't wait to see what they do with Ross. I'm not saying he's the next Jerry Rice but I do think there's untapped ability there. And I also think we left yardage off the boards with Mixon's misuse last year.

Same here, always liked the pick of Ross, one of the few that always has before and even now. He showed atleast a bit of the reason i liked him last year scoring 7 TD's and still showing that he is a Red Zone threat like he was in college. Once he gets the mental part of the game down and gains chemistry with Dalton all the while adding confidence i think he has rare abilities, he can be electric.

We misused both Mixon and Ross their first two years here.

Was nice seeing Boyd come on in his 3rd year, maybe Ross can do the same.