IF White is gone, who do you pick?

[Whatever]

(03-26-2019, 03:07 PM)Au165 Wrote: Bush or Wilson, or a slight trade back to get Bush or Wilson. The drop off in tackle isn't even close to the drop off in LB and there will be two or three Tackles on Friday when round 2 starts that could be day 1 starters at RT if need be. I think TE is deep this year and a TE option in the 4th/5th is where you will get the best value.

There's simply no way I'm taking a late first-early second 4-3 LB at 11.  There are still quality starters at that position out there in FA that are going to be on one year prove it deals after the draft ends.  We also have two 3rd round picks that are still on rookie deals that we hope a new defensive staff will get more out of.  Obviously, we want an upgrade, but reaching in a weak class isn't the way to go about it.

Reaching for need at one position while passing on a stud because you think you can get a decent player at the same position later is how you wind up with a roster full of average-mediocre players.  It is much easier and cheaper to find average-mediocre guys to plug holes in your lineup than it is to find star players to build your team around.  This is frankly a team where most of the star players are on the wrong side of 30.  Mixon is really the only guy under 30 that you could point to as being a bona fide star, then there are a handful of guys who might take that next step like Boyd, Lawson, WJ3, and Bates.  We really need to be looking at who are going to be the franchise cornerstones in 2-3 years when father time has caught up to AJ, Geno, and Dunlap.  Bush/Wilson won't be one of those guys.

[Au165]

(03-26-2019, 07:09 PM)Whatever Wrote: There's simply no way I'm taking a late first-early second 4-3 LB at 11.  There are still quality starters at that position out there in FA that are going to be on one year prove it deals after the draft ends.  We also have two 3rd round picks that are still on rookie deals that we hope a new defensive staff will get more out of.  Obviously, we want an upgrade, but reaching in a weak class isn't the way to go about it.

Reaching for need at one position while passing on a stud because you think you can get a decent player at the same position later is how you wind up with a roster full of average-mediocre players.  It is much easier and cheaper to find average-mediocre guys to plug holes in your lineup than it is to find star players to build your team around.  This is frankly a team where most of the star players are on the wrong side of 30.  Mixon is really the only guy under 30 that you could point to as being a bona fide star, then there are a handful of guys who might take that next step like Boyd, Lawson, WJ3, and Bates.  We really need to be looking at who are going to be the franchise cornerstones in 2-3 years when father time has caught up to AJ, Geno, and Dunlap.  Bush/Wilson won't be one of those guys.

Yea, we will simply disagree. Vander Esch completely changed Dallas’s defense this year. White/Bush/Wilson are all about on par with his rating coming out last year White higher with bush and Wilson right around him. The NFL goes in these weird cycles where they claim a position unimportant until someone overhauls there team with it (Guard,Hb, LB). Jefferson is crap and what’s left in FA is the same stop gap approach we have taken to LB for a decade. The fall off from the top three to the next tier is substantial.

Where you take a guy doesn’t matter if they end up being all pro. If we had taken Leonard last year in the first no one now would care now that he was projected as a second round pick going in to the draft. This idea of “projections” and “overdrafting” is dumb. There are no guarantees you’ll get a second crack at your guy so you take them when you can. If we went back at time and took Geno in the first instead of the fourth I don’t think anyone would care today.

[OSUfan]

(03-26-2019, 04:42 PM)Au165 Wrote: Look at the best TE's in the game over the last few years. These are basically the top TE's this past season (In no order). 

George Kittle- 5th 
Travis Kelce- 3rd
Zach Ertz- 2nd
OJ Howard- 1st
Jared Cook- 3rd
Rob Gornkowski- 2nd
Eric Ebron- 1st
Austin Hooper- 3rd
Jimmy Graham- 3rd
Kyle Rudolph- 2nd
David Njoku- 1st
Vance McDonald-2nd
David Andrews-3rd

I am all for a day 2 TE or early day 3, but day 1 TE's aren't as big a deal as everyone pretends they are. I get the idea of being "special" at the position, but OJ Howard was supposed to be that guy too and it hasn't really worked out.

Not sure why people make this round comparison thing. Either the player is worth the selection or he isn't. Many people think guards are not first round prospects but that certainly got proven wrong last season.

[OSUfan]

(03-25-2019, 01:46 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Say Murray, Haskins, and Lock are gone. White is gone.

Who do you take? These are the guys to choose from:

Devin Bush
TJ Hockenson
Jawaan Taylor
Ed Oliver
Jonah Williams
DK Metcalf
Marquise Brown
Cody Ford

Jawaan Taylor all the way. Not even a contest.

[wolfkaosaun]

(03-25-2019, 01:46 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Say Murray, Haskins, and Lock are gone. White is gone.

Who do you take? These are the guys to choose from:

Devin Bush
TJ Hockenson
Jawaan Taylor
Ed Oliver
Jonah Williams
DK Metcalf
Marquise Brown
Cody Ford

In this order:
Ed Oliver
Jonah Williams
Jawaan Taylor
Devin Bush
TJ Hockenson
Cody Ford
DK Metcalf
Marquise Brown

Ed Oliver vs Jonah Williams is tough for me. I think Oliver could be an extreme force to reckon with. I also REALLY like Williams.
Taylor is also rising up the draft boards from what I've been seeing.
I also really like Devin Bush, think he could be a good sideline to sideline player.
Hockenson I think can be a Pro Bowl player and be a premiere tight end for years to come
I like Cody Ford, I do. I just think the other players are better than him.
We don't need a WR.
Dalton actually had his 2nd highest TD% in his career (only behind 2015). Tyler Boyd is coming on. AJ Green is still good. Hopefully the coaches actually use John Ross (who was also a HUGE red zone threat).

[Au165]

(03-26-2019, 07:51 PM)OSUfan Wrote: Not sure why people make this round comparison thing. Either the player is worth the selection or he isn't. Many people think guards are not first round prospects but that certainly got proven wrong last season.

My point is simple, you don’t need to spend a 1st on a TE to get high level production. Historically QBs outside the 1st don’t pan out, HBs outside the 1st tend to do well. The reality is some positions simply can be found later than others.

[Whatever]

(03-26-2019, 07:25 PM)Au165 Wrote: Yea, we will simply disagree. Vander Esch completely changed Dallas’s defense this year. White/Bush/Wilson are all about on par with his rating coming out last year White higher with bush and Wilson right around him. The NFL goes in these weird cycles where they claim a position unimportant until someone overhauls there team with it (Guard,Hb, LB). Jefferson is crap and what’s left in FA is the same stop gap approach we have taken to LB for a decade. The fall off from the top three to the next tier is substantial.

Where you take a guy doesn’t matter if they end up being all pro. If we had taken Leonard last year in the first no one now would care now that he was projected as a second round pick going in to the draft. This idea of “projections” and “overdrafting” is dumb. There are no guarantees you’ll get a second crack at your guy so you take them when you can. If we went back at time and took Geno in the first instead of the fourth I don’t think anyone would care today.

Dallas had the #8 overall defense in 2017 and was #7 last year.  Vander Esch is a great player, but he was another piece in an already great defense.  He did not transform anything.  He was also rated significantly higher than Bush or Wilson.  Dude was 6'4", 250+ when he came out.  Bush is 5'11", 230+ and you want to take him 8 spots higher?

Bush and Wilson are highly unlikely to become All Pro's.  If they had a good chance to become All Pro's, I wouldn't have an issue taking them at #11.  Neither is going to be anywhere close to the best player left on the board at #11.  Neither is going to magically transform the defense.  

People will always retroactively complain if they could have gotten the same player later.  Draft position and projections also greatly change fan perception of a player.  If John Ross was a 5th round pick, people would universally be screaming for him to be getting more opportunities.  People wouldn't still be holding out hope for Billings becoming a dominant NT if he hadn't been projected as a 1st round pick.  If Price was another 4th round C, people wouldn't make nearly the excuses for his poor play as a rookie.  Rey Maualuga was thought to have been used wrong for years due to his Top 10 projection.

[Au165]

(03-26-2019, 11:07 PM)Whatever Wrote: Dallas had the #8 overall defense in 2017 and was #7 last year.  Vander Esch is a great player, but he was another piece in an already great defense.  He did not transform anything.  He was also rated significantly higher than Bush or Wilson.  Dude was 6'4", 250+ when he came out.  Bush is 5'11", 230+ and you want to take him 8 spots higher?

Bush and Wilson are highly unlikely to become All Pro's.  If they had a good chance to become All Pro's, I wouldn't have an issue taking them at #11.  Neither is going to be anywhere close to the best player left on the board at #11.  Neither is going to magically transform the defense.  

People will always retroactively complain if they could have gotten the same player later.  Draft position and projections also greatly change fan perception of a player.  If John Ross was a 5th round pick, people would universally be screaming for him to be getting more opportunities.  People wouldn't still be holding out hope for Billings becoming a dominant NT if he hadn't been projected as a 1st round pick.  If Price was another 4th round C, people wouldn't make nearly the excuses for his poor play as a rookie.  Rey Maualuga was thought to have been used wrong for years due to his Top 10 projection.

Dallas went from 13th in points allowed to 6th. He wasn’t rated significantly higher most had him as a guy who could go anywhere between 15 and 30. If he was in this draft and you got him at 11 are you mad? So again why do you care if you take a guy “too early” if he gives you top production. Stack LBs are one of the least busted on picks in the first so it’s pretty “safe”.

As I said we will probably just disagree on this, my guess is Bush is the pick so we will see how it goes and what he can do.

[Whatever]

(03-26-2019, 11:13 PM)Au165 Wrote: Dallas went from 13th in points allowed to 6th. He wasn’t rated significantly higher most had him as a guy who could go anywhere between 15 and 30. If he was in this draft and you got him at 11 are you mad? So again why do you care if you take a guy “too early” if he gives you top production. Stack LBs are one of the least busted on picks in the first so it’s pretty “safe”.

As I said we will probably just disagree on this, my guess is Bush is the pick so we will see how it goes and what he can do.

So Kris Richard gets no credit for the Dallas D?  Again, Dallas had a good defense last year and Vander Esch certainly helped, but he was not transformative by any stretch.  Your comment made it sound like they had a bad defense and suddenly became good with his addition, which isn't the case.

You realize Vander Esch would be LB1 in this class, right?  Vander Esch had a 6.25 prospect rating.  Devin White has a 6.24 rating.  Devin Bush has a 6.03 rating and Mack Wilson has a 5.84.  So, no, I wouldn't have an issue with Vander Esch at #11.  For what it's worth, Dalton Risner who you've talked wanting in the 2nd is rated 6.05, higher than Bush or Wilson.  You keep trying to equate Bush to Vander Esch, but he's not close as a prospect.  The only reason they were projected to go in the same range is this is a weak LB class with a steep drop off and draftniks are pushing Bush up on their big boards because they think someone will reach for him out of desperation.  Conversely, Vander Esch was part of a stacked LB class.

I'm simply going to agree to disagree on this one.

[Au165]

(03-27-2019, 12:02 AM)Whatever Wrote: So Kris Richard gets no credit for the Dallas D?  Again, Dallas had a good defense last year and Vander Esch certainly helped, but he was not transformative by any stretch.  Your comment made it sound like they had a bad defense and suddenly became good with his addition, which isn't the case.

You realize Vander Esch would be LB1 in this class, right?  Vander Esch had a 6.25 prospect rating.  Devin White has a 6.24 rating.  Devin Bush has a 6.03 rating and Mack Wilson has a 5.84.  So, no, I wouldn't have an issue with Vander Esch at #11.  For what it's worth, Dalton Risner who you've talked wanting in the 2nd is rated 6.05, higher than Bush or Wilson.  You keep trying to equate Bush to Vander Esch, but he's not close as a prospect.  The only reason they were projected to go in the same range is this is a weak LB class with a steep drop off and draftniks are pushing Bush up on their big boards because they think someone will reach for him out of desperation.  Conversely, Vander Esch was part of a stacked LB class.

I'm simply going to agree to disagree on this one.

Okay, let's move off Vander Esch then for a second as the specific player doesn't really matter for what I'm trying to say and you are hung up on that piece. Let's use Dareous Leonard as the person instead and maybe this will make more sense. Since you like using NFL.com ratings he was a 5.83. That would make him rated lower than Wilson or Bush and he definitely played a role in transforming the Colts defense. He was a first team all pro as a rookie.  

Had you taken him last year in the 1st, would you have been mad knowing what he'd be? You said there is no way you take a 4-3 LB projected as a late first early second at 11 (What Leonard was and where he went), but I think almost anyone in the NFL who needed a LB would have taken Leonard at 11 last year if they knew then what they know now. The point is the skill is the skill, don't get hung up on projections or rankings. It happens all the time where people say guys "reach" but it's only a reach if they don't work out. 

[CJD]

With those choices, I'd have to decide between Taylor and Bush.

Leaning towards Bush because, apparently, we have our starting RT already in...*sigh*...Bobby Hart...

[Whatever]

(03-27-2019, 08:25 AM)Au165 Wrote: Okay, let's move off Vander Esch then for a second as the specific player doesn't really matter for what I'm trying to say and you are hung up on that piece. Let's use Dareous Leonard as the person instead and maybe this will make more sense. Since you like using NFL.com ratings he was a 5.83. That would make him rated lower than Wilson or Bush and he definitely played a role in transforming the Colts defense. He was a first team all pro as a rookie.  

Had you taken him last year in the 1st, would you have been mad knowing what he'd be? You said there is no way you take a 4-3 LB projected as a late first early second at 11 (What Leonard was and where he went), but I think almost anyone in the NFL who needed a LB would have taken Leonard at 11 last year if they knew then what they know now. The point is the skill is the skill, don't get hung up on projections or rankings. It happens all the time where people say guys "reach" but it's only a reach if they don't work out. 

Pretty much any All Pro that wasn't a Top 3 pick was drafted later than they should have been in hindsight.  If the consensus was that Leonard was going to be that good, he wouldn't have made it out of the Top 10.  Part of the issue with him was that he played at a MEAC school and had little film against big boy competition, which made him tough to grade.  

However, the issue with Bush is that he's not that good of a prospect and there is little reason to believe he will be an All Pro.  How many 5'11" All Pro LB's can you name?  People think he's going to be this lock down cover LB that's going to eliminate pass catching TE's from the game, and that's unlikely to happen because he's going to have the same issues DB's have with the height disadvantage.  QB's don't have to adjust their throws as much to drop them in over 5'11" defenders in trail when throwing to 6'5" TE's.  Just like the QB has to be able to see over the LoS, so do the LB's so they can see ball fakes and make their reads, which is a problem for Bush.  He's undersized, makes bad reads, and he can't get off blocks and the fact that he's undersized contributes to the other two, making them more difficult to overcome.

[JungleRock85]

Since this is what I would do and not the Bengals then I would take Taylor and plug him in at Right Tackle for the next 10 years. The guy could possibly even be the Left Tackle if needed in the future. Ed Oliver would also be very tempting for me at #11. Pair him with Geno, Dunlap, and Lawson on passing downs and let them rack up the sacks.

As for what I think the Bengals will do, I absolutely think it will be Devin Bush just based on the moves this offseason with who has been added/retained while Burfict was let go. That points to a Linebacker in the 1st round unless White and Bush are both gone.

[Hammerstripes]

(03-26-2019, 07:09 PM)Whatever Wrote: There's simply no way I'm taking a late first-early second 4-3 LB at 11.  There are still quality starters at that position out there in FA that are going to be on one year prove it deals after the draft ends.  We also have two 3rd round picks that are still on rookie deals that we hope a new defensive staff will get more out of.  Obviously, we want an upgrade, but reaching in a weak class isn't the way to go about it.

Reaching for need at one position while passing on a stud because you think you can get a decent player at the same position later is how you wind up with a roster full of average-mediocre players.  It is much easier and cheaper to find average-mediocre guys to plug holes in your lineup than it is to find star players to build your team around.  This is frankly a team where most of the star players are on the wrong side of 30.  Mixon is really the only guy under 30 that you could point to as being a bona fide star, then there are a handful of guys who might take that next step like Boyd, Lawson, WJ3, and Bates.  We really need to be looking at who are going to be the franchise cornerstones in 2-3 years when father time has caught up to AJ, Geno, and Dunlap.  Bush/Wilson won't be one of those guys.

Who would you sign as a free agent that would solve our issues?  I'm not seeing anyone.

This is not a deep class, but the top 2 guys are elite prospects.  Neither is a reach at 11.

[Au165]

(03-27-2019, 01:42 PM)JungleRock85 Wrote: Since this is what I would do and not the Bengals then I would take Taylor and plug him in at Right Tackle for the next 10 years. The guy could possibly even be the Left Tackle if needed in the future. Ed Oliver would also be very tempting for me at #11. Pair him with Geno, Dunlap, and Lawson on passing downs and let them rack up the sacks.

As for what I think the Bengals will do, I absolutely think it will be Devin Bush just based on the moves this offseason with who has been added/retained while Burfict was let go. That points to a Linebacker in the 1st round unless White and Bush are both gone.

In honor of Oliver's pro day today I went back and watched some games this year and I am now 100% on board the Ed Oliver train. They actually had him drop from the nose at times...to cover HB's! He athletically tested better then Aaron Donald in every major category. Some advanced metrics have him with the most tackles for loss of anyone since Donald. If we can play him as a RE on base downs then kick him inside on passing downs I can get behind this because it just creates a scary D line. 

[Whatever]

(03-28-2019, 02:00 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Who would you sign as a free agent that would solve our issues?  I'm not seeing anyone.

This is not a deep class, but the top 2 guys are elite prospects.  Neither is a reach at 11.

Zach Brown is a really good LB.  He was released by Washington after butting heads with the coaches, but he would likely be on his best behavior on a one year prove it deal.  Not ideal, but he'd be a significant upgrade.  Brandon Marshall signed with Oakland today, so he's now off the table.  The Jets still have Darron Lee up on the trade block.  There will likely be some guys cut after the draft.

Bush is not an elite prospect.  White is frankly a bit overhyped.  If they came out last year, White would be LB4 and Bush would be LB6.  Bush isn't even really in 1st round discussion if he was in a good class like last year.  He's a 2nd round guy on tape.  He's being pushed up big boards because he had a great combine, it's a weak class, and there's a huge drop after Wilson. 

[Whatever]

(03-28-2019, 02:07 PM)Au165 Wrote: In honor of Oliver's pro day today I went back and watched some games this year and I am now 100% on board the Ed Oliver train. They actually had him drop from the nose at times...to cover HB's! He athletically tested better then Aaron Donald in every major category. Some advanced metrics have him with the most tackles for loss of anyone since Donald. If we can play him as a RE on base downs then kick him inside on passing downs I can get behind this because it just creates a scary D line. 

Oliver has moments like that where he seems like a DT version of Terrell Suggs.  Kid's just a freak of nature.  I think you're right in that he'll probably need to move to DE due to being undersized.  He has insane potential, but he's going to need the right fit.  Jacketgate was a bit of a concern, but I think the fact that he chose Houston over Alabama because his brother and high school coach were there shows some good character.  He may have that AJ Green "Bengals lifer" DNA.  He also has my favorite prospect quote so far talking about raising cattle...

“[That’s] why I’m able to go up [against] 6-5 and 300-pound guys,” Oliver said. “It’s a walk in the park. You fight with a 1,000-pound animal, I ain’t worrying about no 300 pounds.”

[Hoofhearted]

(03-28-2019, 02:07 PM)Au165 Wrote: In honor of Oliver's pro day today I went back and watched some games this year and I am now 100% on board the Ed Oliver train. They actually had him drop from the nose at times...to cover HB's! He athletically tested better then Aaron Donald in every major category. Some advanced metrics have him with the most tackles for loss of anyone since Donald. If we can play him as a RE on base downs then kick him inside on passing downs I can get behind this because it just creates a scary D line. 

Me to! At first I wanted to address OL/LB, but if Oliver is there, you take him. Boy is he going to be scary,

[*Synric*]

(03-29-2019, 08:53 AM)Hoofhearted Wrote: Me to! At first I wanted to address OL/LB, but if Oliver is there, you take him. Boy is he going to be scary,

Ed Oliver and Montez Sweat will be hard to pass on at 11.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-26-2019, 07:09 PM)Whatever Wrote: There's simply no way I'm taking a late first-early second 4-3 LB at 11.  There are still quality starters at that position out there in FA that are going to be on one year prove it deals after the draft ends.  We also have two 3rd round picks that are still on rookie deals that we hope a new defensive staff will get more out of.  Obviously, we want an upgrade, but reaching in a weak class isn't the way to go about it.

Reaching for need at one position while passing on a stud because you think you can get a decent player at the same position later is how you wind up with a roster full of average-mediocre players.  It is much easier and cheaper to find average-mediocre guys to plug holes in your lineup than it is to find star players to build your team around.  This is frankly a team where most of the star players are on the wrong side of 30.  Mixon is really the only guy under 30 that you could point to as being a bona fide star, then there are a handful of guys who might take that next step like Boyd, Lawson, WJ3, and Bates.  We really need to be looking at who are going to be the franchise cornerstones in 2-3 years when father time has caught up to AJ, Geno, and Dunlap.  Bush/Wilson won't be one of those guys.

Here's what I find interesting about Devin Bush.
Everyone calls him elite, right?
Dude had half the tackles that Devin White had last year. Bush never hit 100 tackles in a season whereas Bush exceeded that twice. Given his speed and athleticism, I would have thought Bush would have had more production than he had. I get a sense that Bush is more of a mid-1st pick that's boosted his stock from Combine performance.

Luckily, I don't think the Bengals HAVE to go LB in Rd 1 just to fill a need. A DL selection could play 50% of the defensive snaps this year given there isn't a good candidate for nickel DT (the current guys haven't cut it to this point). If Bobby Hart really is just a 1-year guarantee with a prove-it situation for years 2 and 3, I think Jonah Williams, Cody Ford, and Jawaan Taylor all should be in play too. Mike Brown wants Dalton to prove it this year, so QB could also be in play. With that said, I'm not highly confident in any of these QBs really. Haskins is probably the safest out of himself, Murray, Lock, and Jones, but only having the single year of starting does concern me. Murray I think needs to be in a particular system to shine, but we haven't seen this offense yet so I don't know if Murray will fit the system. Honestly, Will Grier is probably my QB3 after Murray and Haskins.