"Late bloomers" in Louisville?

[fredtoast]

Over the last few years the Reds have had some luck finding older "prospects" that suddenly produce for the Reds (Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler.

This year they have a bunch of older guys who are absolutely killing it in Louisville.  I never heard of any of them as "top prospects"

Josh Vanmeter, 24, OF...Before this season he had hit .250 with only 8 HR in almost 700 at bats at AA, and .253 with 11 HR in 332 at bats at AAA.  This year he hit .348 at Louisville with 14 HR in only 181 at bats.

Narciso Crook, 24, OF...Prior to this season had only 161 at bats at AA level and hit .286 with 2 HR.  This year at Louisville he is hitting .329 with 9 HR in just 170 at bats.

Rob Refsnyder, 28, OF...Has played in the majors each of the last 4 seasons totaling 367 at bats (.218 avg, 4 HR).  He has actually been a pretty consistent hitter at AAA prior to this year with a .291 avg.  But this year at Louisville he is hitting .326 with a slugging percentage over 100 points higher than his career AAA mark (.525 to .421).  He is hitting a HR every 27.6 at bats compared to one every 51.4 at bats at the AAA level before this year.

Aristides Aquino, 25, OF...Had never played above AA before this season.  In 863 at bats at the AA level he hit .227 with a HR every 23.3 at bats and a .421 slugging percentage.  This year at Louisville he is hitting .299 with a HR every 10.5 at bats and a .636 slugging%.

There has to be something going on down in Kentucky this year.  Either they have moved in the fences or a bunch of these guys are on PEDs.  I just can't see this many guys all having such huge improvements the exact same year.  Especially guys this old.

Lets just hope one or two of them are for real and not just a flash in the pan.

[samhain]

Now that Bauer is in the fold, the focus is on getting the 2020 offense together. One thing that would help a lot is for a player such as Van Meter or Aquino to show that they can produce in the majors for the remainder of the year.

I'm also interested to see what happens with Ervin. He's hitting out of this world right now. That almost has to level out, but you never know. He was a very highly touted albeit raw prospect. He has the physical ability, yet was slow to develop at almost every level of the minors. Perhaps he's figured it out.

It would be great to have a relatively unexpected homegrown player become a needed piece on offense. As of now, as I see it, they need the following things before April 2020: a 2B, a shortstop, a RF, a better hitting C. Relievers are a given, but I'm just referring to the offense.

[grampahol]

No doubt about it.. 24 is OLD! So old in fact that I hear congress is debating on whether to change the age of receiving social security to 23 instead of 65. And just think about all those elderly people at the ripe old age of 6 getting into first grade these days.. 
I hate to be the barer of bad news, but 24 is still considered kind of young. I might even give both nuts to be 24 again.. What I'd do nutless at 24? I haven't thought it through that far yet.. 

[*psychdoctor*]

(08-01-2019, 04:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Over the last few years the Reds have had some luck finding older "prospects" that suddenly produce for the Reds (Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler.

This year they have a bunch of older guys who are absolutely killing it in Louisville.  I never heard of any of them as "top prospects"

Josh Vanmeter, 24, OF...Before this season he had hit .250 with only 8 HR in almost 700 at bats at AA, and .253 with 11 HR in 332 at bats at AAA.  This year he hit .348 at Louisville with 14 HR in only 181 at bats.

Narciso Crook, 24, OF...Prior to this season had only 161 at bats at AA level and hit .286 with 2 HR.  This year at Louisville he is hitting .329 with 9 HR in just 170 at bats.

Rob Refsnyder, 28, OF...Has played in the majors each of the last 4 seasons totaling 367 at bats (.218 avg, 4 HR).  He has actually been a pretty consistent hitter at AAA prior to this year with a .291 avg.  But this year at Louisville he is hitting .326 with a slugging percentage over 100 points higher than his career AAA mark (.525 to .421).  He is hitting a HR every 27.6 at bats compared to one every 51.4 at bats at the AAA level before this year.

Aristides Aquino, 25, OF...Had never played above AA before this season.  In 863 at bats at the AA level he hit .227 with a HR every 23.3 at bats and a .421 slugging percentage.  This year at Louisville he is hitting .299 with a HR every 10.5 at bats and a .636 slugging%.

There has to be something going on down in Kentucky this year.  Either they have moved in the fences or a bunch of these guys are on PEDs.  I just can't see this many guys all having such huge improvements the exact same year.  Especially guys this old.

Lets just hope one or two of them are for real and not just a flash in the pan.

I think Jordy Davis and Leon "bull" Durham must know what they are doing with the Bats program there in Louisville.  

[fredtoast]

(08-02-2019, 03:35 PM)samhain Wrote: I'm also interested to see what happens with Ervin.

Funny you should mention Ervin.

Last year I was telling everyone not to get their hopes up over Ervin because he had never hit much in the minors.  Before last season he had not looked like a top hitter in double A (470 at bats, .238 avg, .400 slg%) or triple A (363 at bats, .256 avg, .380 slg%).

All he has done since then is hit over 30 points higher at triple A (.289) with a slugging percentage over 100 points higher (.487) then come to the majors and hit .272 with a .440 slugging%.  And Ervin can run.  He stole 97 bases in three seasons ('15-'17) before last year.

Out of all these guys surely we can find a couple that can hit in the majors.

[fredtoast]

(08-02-2019, 06:58 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: I think Jordy Davis and Leon "bull" Durham must know what they are doing with the Bats program there in Louisville.  

Lets hope so.

If the other guys killing it in Louisville can help as much as Aquino then we are set.

[Yojimbo]

Looks like this is happening across the league.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27545491/home-runs-triple-level-surge-58

[Circleville Guy]

(08-03-2019, 12:45 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Funny you should mention Ervin.

Last year I was telling everyone not to get their hopes up over Ervin because he had never hit much in the minors.  Before last season he had not looked like a top hitter in double A (470 at bats, .238 avg, .400 slg%) or triple A (363 at bats, .256 avg, .380 slg%).

All he has done since then is hit over 30 points higher at triple A (.289) with a slugging percentage over 100 points higher (.487) then come to the majors and hit .272 with a .440 slugging%.  And Ervin can run.  He stole 97 bases in three seasons ('15-'17) before last year.

Out of all these guys surely we can find a couple that can hit in the majors.

Ervin has surprised me as much as Winker has disappointed me. I had high hopes that long neck would become an established starter this year. He looked like a 4th outfielder this year at the plate. Couple that with being a crappy fielder and he has me wondering if he’s even worth keeping. I’d like to see the Reds pick up an established Outfielder and use Ervin as as a rotation Outfielder. Senzel doesn’t look reliable so Ervin would still get plenty of play time. Senzel has also been a huge disappointment for me. Next year should give us an idea on what he’s gonna be as a player.

[*bengalfan74*]

(09-05-2019, 07:40 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: Ervin has surprised me as much as Winker has disappointed me. I had high hopes that long neck would become an established starter this year. He looked like a 4th outfielder this year at the plate. Couple that with being a crappy fielder and he has me wondering if he’s even worth keeping. I’d like to see the Reds pick up an established Outfielder and use Ervin as as a rotation Outfielder. Senzel doesn’t look reliable so Ervin would still get plenty of play time. Senzel has also been a huge disappointment for me. Next year should give us an idea on what he’s gonna be as a player.

Me too

I believe I picked him as the breakout player back in the spring and he's been pretty MEH, inconsistent, can't hit lefties - AT ALL ! batting .163 with 2 RBI's against them. Aquino, who has obviously been on a tear, has equaled his production in like 1/3 the games and at bats. But it still shows you we have to get more consistent production from LF. It wouldn't bother me if they moved on.

I wouldn't say Senzel has disappointed me but he has flattened out a good bit. I love his approach and attitude so I'm hoping he can adjust and get it together. His health/injuries are a concern though.

I'd love to see them get an established decent power hitting LF this off season. We need it to help make up for Votto

[fredtoast]

(09-05-2019, 07:07 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: Looks like this is happening across the league.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27545491/home-runs-triple-level-surge-58

This should be front page news on all baseball sites.

This juiced ball is making all these major league home run records appear bogus.