Reds - Division winners ?

[*bengalfan74*]

With roughly 50 games left for this MLB season I believe the Reds only real chance is to win the division.

It's likely the Braves win the East and it's certain the Dodgers will win the West. So discounting those two that leaves pretty much 8 teams the Reds will be up against for the wildcard.

Wash. 60-53
Phi. 59-54
NYM 58-56

Chi. 61-52
StL 58-54
Mil. 59-56

Ari. 57-57
SF 56-58

Reds 54-58

The odds are stacked way against them beating out all those teams to win a wildcard spot.

However, they have their chances in beating the 3 teams ahead of them in the division. They have 18 games left against them - 4 at home against Cubs and 3 on the road. 4 at home against the Cards and 4 on road, and 3 at home against Brewers.

11 of their next 14 games are at home and they have 3 series against the so so Padres, awful Marlins, and slumping Pirates.

With the pitching staff getting hopefully a boost from Wood and Bauer I think they can make a run, the stars seem to be lining up. We have some hot young bats: Aquino, Ervin, Senzel, Vanmeter, Iggy, even Winker has turned it around.

This is the time to close the gap against Cubs and Cards, this homestand is crucial !

A month ago I was all but ready to throw in the towel. Now I'm liking the way this is shaping up.

[Goalpost]

So I think the Cubs are the team to beat. But they have a worse road record than even us. Their home/road split the rest of the way is 22/27. It's a long shot, but there is still minimal hope.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-07-2019, 01:20 PM)Goalpost Wrote: So I think the Cubs are the team to beat.  But they have a worse road record than even us.  Their home/road split the rest of the way is 22/27.  It's a long shot, but there is still minimal hope.

And they're beatable, as are the Cards. 

I think they have a decent shot at making it very interesting. 

[guyofthetiger]

This weekend the Reds have 4 games at home against the Cubs. I would call it a success if we win 3 of 4. Better yet, 4 of 4. Look for the sea of blue in the stands. Go Reds! We are only 6.5 games back with 1.5 months to go.

[CJD]

If we win this Cubs series, we will be in it for sure. If we can sweep them? Oh man...that'd be perfect. We'd reach .500 and 2.5 games back (unless St. Louis wins 3 of 4 in that same time frame and takes 1st place) simultaneously.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

There's also a nine game stretch with six against a Grienke-less Arizona team sandwiched around three games against the lame Mariners.

Currently Homer Bailey and the A's are leading 1-0 over the Cubs into the bottom of the 4th.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Open mouth . . . insert foot.

5-1 Cubs after a Happ grand slam.

Homer Bailey pulling his best impersonation of Homer Bailey. Mow them down through three . . . then fall apart.

Looks like the Reds will be 7 back when the Cubbies come into town tomorrow.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-07-2019, 04:18 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: There's also a nine game stretch with six against a Grienke-less Arizona team sandwiched around three games against the lame Mariners.

Currently Homer Bailey and the A's are leading 1-0 over the Cubs into the bottom of the 4th.

I think the Reds have a punchers chance.

[cinci4life]

Reds are only 4.5 out of the wildcard and could go to either 4 or 5 depending on how a couple games play out today. Really I think they have a better shot at wildcard than the division but both are attainable.

[*psychdoctor*]

I think this series is HUGE against the Cubs. If the Reds take 3/4 then the team will "smell" playoff hopes and maybe snowball with confidence into the playoffs.

[Yojimbo]

I’ve seen zero consistency so far this season, which gives me little hope they can challenge down the stretch. When the bats are hot the pitching is cold. When the pitching is hot the bats are cold. I think we’ll start seeing the roster get lined up for 2020 soon, more playing time for younger players, less for vets with expiring contracts.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-07-2019, 06:35 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: I think this series is HUGE against the Cubs.  If the Reds take 3/4 then the team will "smell" playoff hopes and maybe snowball with confidence into the playoffs.

Indeed it is

3 of 4 would be a giant confidence boost for the rest of the season.

[*psychdoctor*]

(08-07-2019, 06:56 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Indeed it is

3 of 4 would be a giant confidence boost for the rest of the season.

This series against the Cubs will expose the Reds' pitching staff for the are.  It will be the Reds elite.  It will also expose how well the Reds would compete against others if they were to make the playoffs.  On paper, and prior stats would suggest the Reds have a top starting rotation.  Nevertheless, Bauer is still fitting in, and Wood is relatively "green" in terms of playing time.  

My hope is that Bauer brings the mental attitude of a winner and helps this young staff show some balls.    Sorry for all the puns...

[Circleville Guy]

Odds makers have the Reds at a 12-13% chance of being a wildcard team. This series feels extremely important. If they get swept, they’re done, if they lose 3, they’re done. Win 2 and they’re barely alive. They really have to win at least 3 to make any real push.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Wow.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/pit

Pittsburgh was 44-45 at the all star break and only 2.5 games back. The Reds were 41-46 and 4.5 back.

Pittsburgh is 4-21 since the All-Star break and now, at 48-66, they are 14 back.

After going 2-6 after the break, the Reds are now 13-12 after the break and are currently on an 11-6 run in their last 17 games.

I cannot stand ESPN but I love their schedule layout with the pitching match ups listed 10 days out.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/cin

The Reds only play three series against the Cardinals in the 2nd half but all three of them are four game series. Two more coming up.

[*psychdoctor*]

(08-08-2019, 02:48 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Wow.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/pit

Pittsburgh was 44-45 at the all star break and only 2.5 games back. The Reds were 41-46 and 4.5 back.

Pittsburgh is 4-21 since the All-Star break and now, at 48-66, they are 14 back.

After going 2-6 after the break, the Reds are now 13-12 after the break and are currently on an 11-6 run in their last 17 games.

I cannot stand ESPN but I love their schedule layout with the pitching match ups listed 10 days out.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/cin

The Reds only play three series against the Cardinals in the 2nd half but all three of them are four game series. Two more coming up.

Redbirds always play the Reds tough.  Lets hope Reds take 3/4 from cubs.  

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-07-2019, 07:02 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: This series against the Cubs will expose the Reds' pitching staff for the are.  It will be the Reds elite.  It will also expose how well the Reds would compete against others if they were to make the playoffs.  On paper, and prior stats would suggest the Reds have a top starting rotation.  Nevertheless, Bauer is still fitting in, and Wood is relatively "green" in terms of playing time.  

My hope is that Bauer brings the mental attitude of a winner and helps this young staff show some balls.    Sorry for all the puns...

Yep, we're down to the nitty gritty, there's no time to hope to do better down the line. This is it !

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-07-2019, 11:48 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: Odds makers have the Reds at a 12-13% chance of being a wildcard team. This series feels extremely important. If they get swept, they’re done, if they lose 3, they’re done. Win 2 and they’re barely alive. They really have to win at least 3 to make any real push.

Agreed,

Taking it out to both series they have 8 against Cubs and Cards at home over next 10 days and to make a move they really need to win 6 of em. They win 5 and they're hanging on by a hair. Split both series and they're on life support !

And like you say anything less and they're done, kaput, over.

The can't overlook the Nationals series either.

[Goalpost]

(08-08-2019, 09:10 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yep, we're down to the nitty gritty, there's no time to hope to do better down the line. This is it !

They certainly had plenty of practice closing to within a few games of .500 only to fall back again.  And.... here we are.... again.  

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-08-2019, 09:24 AM)Goalpost Wrote: They certainly had plenty of practice closing to within a few games of .500 only to fall back again.  And.... here we are.... again.  

Oh I get it, believe you me I do.

I'm just hoping the additions of Wood and Bauer and the spark at the plate from the younger players will make a difference this time.

But to be honest I'd say the best we can hope for is just to make it interesting. Their chances of making playoffs are pretty slim, but slim is way better than the out of it by mid season we've been thru the past 5 years.