08-16-2019, 05:48 PM
NextGenStats came up with what I consider a metric called "Completion Probability". It takes into account distance of the pass, the amount of separation by the receiver, and distance to the sideline to calculate the probability of a pass being completed. Then they list the top twenty most improbable completions. Basically it is a QB hitting the smallest target from the greatest distance. Four QBs have 2 each of the top 20. One of those is Andy Dalton.
He had the second most improbable completion in the entire '18 season (12.3%) in week 11 against the Ravens. Most of you will remember the 22 yard td to Ross that gave us a 21-13 lead in the third quarter.
He also had the 18th most improbable (14.9%) in week three against Carolina. It was a 31 yarder to Green in the second quarter that was originally ruled incomplete, but Marvin challenged and won. I don't remember this play. Anyone know if it was a sideline catch that was originally ruled out of bounds?
While I think it is cool that they are coming up with all these new stats to take advantage of the location devices on the players I'll bet a lot of these "Improbable Catches" were the result of the receiver making an great leaping catch or doing an incredible job of staying in bounds. But the receiver is not even listed on the top 20 standings.
He had the second most improbable completion in the entire '18 season (12.3%) in week 11 against the Ravens. Most of you will remember the 22 yard td to Ross that gave us a 21-13 lead in the third quarter.
He also had the 18th most improbable (14.9%) in week three against Carolina. It was a 31 yarder to Green in the second quarter that was originally ruled incomplete, but Marvin challenged and won. I don't remember this play. Anyone know if it was a sideline catch that was originally ruled out of bounds?
While I think it is cool that they are coming up with all these new stats to take advantage of the location devices on the players I'll bet a lot of these "Improbable Catches" were the result of the receiver making an great leaping catch or doing an incredible job of staying in bounds. But the receiver is not even listed on the top 20 standings.
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
