The Reds need to take NL Central games personal

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

One area they have improved over last season is division games. Last season the Reds were 47-76 against teams with a winning record, but they were 21-26 against teams with a winning record outside of the division, 6-1 against the Dodgers. That means that they were a pathetic 26-50 inside the division since every body else had a winning record in 2018. The NL Central has dropped off this year but the Reds' massively improved rotation is a part of that drop off. 76 games against four teams and 86 games against 15 teams.

Club-Reds' 1st half record _ 2nd half = Season series

2018 vs Cubs 7-5 _ 1-6 = 8-11 . . . 2019 vs Cubs 6-3 _ 3-4 = 9-7 - Win total is plus one with three game left in Chicago
2018 vs Cardinals 3-10 _ 4-2 = 7-12 . . . 2019 vs Cardinals 3-4 _ 3-5 = 6-9 - minus one with four games left in St Louis
2018 vs Brewers 3-7 _ 3-6 = 6-13 . . . 2019 vs Brewers 6-7 _ 2-1 = 8-8 - plus two with three games left in Cincinnati
2018 vs Pirates 4-6 _ 1-8 = 5-14 . . . 2019 vs Pirates 3-7 _ 2-1 = 5-8 - even with six games left in Pittsburgh

2018 26-50 division record, 6-16 in one run games within the division
2019 28-32 with 16 division games to go, 7-10 in one run games within the division

One win out of three in Chicago and two wins out of three against the Brewers means season series victory. They need to sweep the Cardinals and they need to go 5-1 against the Pirates to win those season series. Highly unlikely but if they actually pulled off that 12-4 record, add those results to their current record and they'll be one game above .500 with the rest of the non-division games on the schedule left to play.

If they went 10-9 against every division rival last year, they would have been 81-81, but let's go a bit further . . .

2018 NL Central Standings before the one game playoff - Reds 26-50 within the division
95-67 Brewers
95-67 Cubs
88-74 Cardinals -7.5
82-79 Pirates -13
67-95 Reds -28.5

Hypothetical 2018 NL Central Standings if the Reds reversed those poor division records against each team, now 50-26 in the division
92-70 Cubs . . . Reds now 11-8 vs Cubs
91-71 Reds -1
88-74 Brewers -4 . . . 13-6 vs Brewers
83-79 Cardinals -9 . . . 12-7 vs Cardinals
73-88 Pirates -19 . . . 14-5 vs Pirates

Now do you see why they need to take the division games personal? There's your buyers vs sellers argument right there.

[*psychdoctor*]

I agree, but this is tough division. I think they also need to win those 1-run games dammit.

[*bengalfan74*]

They sure do, they need to get that chip on their shoulder.

Nice post, thanks

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

The Reds are now 10-8 against the Cubs with one game to go. They won a season series against a division opponent.
They finished against the Cardinals, 7-12 for the second year in a row.
They are still 8-8 against Milwaukee, whoever wins 2 of 3 in the Reds' last home series of the year wins that season series.
They are a pathetic 5-11 against the Pirates with three to go.

10 games under .500 for the season.
30-39 in the division with 7 games to go.

[*bengalfan74*]

(09-18-2019, 12:50 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: The Reds are now 10-8 against the Cubs with one game to go. They won a season series against a division opponent.
They finished against the Cardinals, 7-12 for the second year in a row.
They are still 8-8 against Milwaukee, whoever wins 2 of 3 in the Reds' last home series of the year wins that season series.
They are a pathetic 5-11 against the Pirates with three to go.

10 games under .500 for the season.
30-39 in the division with 7 games to go.

The 5 wins against the Pirates is just dumbfounding ! They're not that tough an opponent.

[Circleville Guy]

(09-18-2019, 04:08 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: The 5 wins against the Pirates is just dumbfounding ! They're not that tough an opponent.

They were more focused on the macho fighting against the pirates. The young team couldn’t stay focused on the games and Bell didn’t help matters.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

If they win two out of three against the Mets, they'll be .500 for the season outside of the division, currently 41-42. I expect Alonso and Suarez to both see NOTHING to hit for those three games.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Reds record versus every non-division opponent
6-1 Marlins - 53-98 - .351
1-2 Seattle - 63-88 - .417
3-3 Colorado 66-86 - .434
5-2 San Diego - 68-83 - .450
2-2 LA Angels -68-83 - .450
4-3 San Francisco - 73-78 - .483 - should have swept them. I blame all three 1 run losses on David Bell
1-2 Texas - 74-78 - .487
3-3 Arizona - 77-75 - .507
3-4 Philadelphia - 77-72 .517
2-2 NY Mets - 78-73 - .517 - still three games to go
1-5 Washington - 83-68 - .550
1-3 Cleveland 88-63 - .583
1-2 Oakland - 91-61 - .599
4-3 Atlanta - 93-59 - .612
1-5 LA Dodgers - 98-52 - .645
3-0 Houston 99-53 - .651

[*psychdoctor*]

(09-18-2019, 06:30 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Reds record versus every non-division opponent
6-1 Marlins - 53-98 - .351
1-2 Seattle - 63-88 - .417
3-3 Colorado 66-86 - .434
5-2 San Diego - 68-83 - .450
2-2 LA Angels -68-83 - .450
4-3 San Francisco - 73-78 - .483 - should have swept them. I blame all three 1 run losses on David Bell
1-2 Texas - 74-78 - .487
3-3 Arizona - 77-75 - .507
3-4 Philadelphia - 77-72 .517
2-2 NY Mets - 78-73 - .517 - still three games to go
1-5 Washington - 83-68 - .550
1-3 Cleveland 88-63 - .583
1-2 Oakland - 91-61 - .599
4-3 Atlanta - 93-59 - .612
1-5 LA Dodgers - 98-52 - .645
3-0 Houston 99-53 - .651

I am still trying to figure out how the Reds swept Houston...