Perspective on the value of a top 5 pick.

[fredtoast]

In my opinion we are looking at a top 2 pick in the next draft.  If this happens then the big debate will be what should we do with that pick.  Some will say we need to use it on a QB because we may not have the chance to draft that high again.  Others will say we need to fix other parts of the team before we look for a QB.

I suppose the biggest question will be how good are the top QBs in this year's draft.  That is almost impossible to tell at this point.  The really in-depth draft analysis does not begin until after the college season is over.  It is not uncommon for the QB draft rankings to change between the end of the season and the draft.  But in connection with this we also need to look at how accurate these rankings have been for QBs taken in the top 5.  Here is a look at the QBs taken in the top 5 of previous drafts and the top QB taken in those drafts


'00... No top 5 QB.  (Chad Pennington first QB at #18)  Best.. Brady in 6th round but such extreme outlier that doesn't really count.
'01... Mike Vick (#1).  Best.. Brees (#32)
'02... David Carr (#1) Joey harrington (#3).  Best.. David Garrard (#108)
'03... Palmer (#1) also best.
'04... Eli Manning (#1) Phillip Rivers (#4).  Hard to say who was the best QB in that draft, but Roethlisberger went #11
'05... Alex Smith (#1).  Best.. Aaron Rodgers (#25)
'06... Vince Young (#3).  Best.. Young actually played very well (2 Pro Bowls, .620 win percentage), but Jay Cutler (#11) had better career.
'07... JaMarcus Russell (#1).  Best..  Kevin Kolb (#36)?
'08... Matt Ryan (#3) also best
'09... Matt Stafford (#1) Mark Sanchez (#5).  Best.. Stafford
'10... Sam Bradford (#1) also best'11... Cam Newton (#1).  Best.. Amdy Dalton (#35)     
'12... Andrew Luck (#1) Robert Griffen (#2).  Best.. Russell Wilson (#75) but this draft was also an extreme outlier with guys like Brandon Weeden (#22) and Brock Osweiler (#57) going in the 1st and 2nd rounds while Willson, Nick Foles (#88) and Kirk Cousins (#102) lasted to the 3rd and 4th.
'13... No top 5 QB and really no good QB at all.  And this just one year after 3 good starters lasted until the third round.
'14... Blake Bortles (#3).  Best.. Derek Carr (#36) or Jimmy Garoppolo (#62).  Teddy Bridgewater also went #32.
'15... Jameis Winstead (#1), Marcus Mariota (#2).  Best..  No other good QBs.
'16... Jared Goff (#1) Carson Wentz (#2).  Best.. Goff and Wentz are both good, but Dak Prescott went #135.
'17... Mitchell Trubisky (#2).  Best..Patrick Mahomes (#10) Deshaun Watson (#12).
'18... Baker Mayfield (#1) Sam Darnold (#3).  Best..  Really too early to tell (see: Vince Young) but Lamar Jackson went #32.


So over the last 20 years over two-thirds of the time the best QB was not taken in the top 5 picks.  Some will argue that this may also apply to all other positions as well.  I think teams "reach" for a QB more than any other position and this is why so many questionable QBs are taken in the top 5 picks.


Next we have to look at the value of a top 5 pick.  Many people have been complaining about the Bengals not trading players for picks, but any player we trade to get any sort of decent pick would just create another hole in our roster.  It is a zero net sum gain.  We would probably gain some cap space by replacing solid starters with cheaper rookies, but not all picks turn into solid starters.  So we may just be creating more holes to fill.  The best way to gain a lot of picks is to trade away a top 2 pick.  Here are some examples of what a top 2 pick can be worth.  Of course this varies from year to year based on how high the top 2 college players are rated, but we won't know that until after the season is over.

In 2016 the Titans gave up the #1 pick (plus a 4th and 6th round pick) in exchange for the #15 pick, two 2nd round picks (#43 and #45) and a 3rd (#76) that year in addition to a 1st round and 3rd round pick in 2017.

In 2011 the Browns gave up the #6 pick in exchange for a 1st (#27), 2nd (#54) and 4th (#124) that year plus a 1st and 4th the next year.

In 1998 the Cardinals dropped just one spot in the draft (from #2 to #3) and also received the Cards '98 second round pick (#33) and '99 first round pick (#8) plus 2 players.  

In 2012 the Rams gave up the #2 pick in the draft for the #6 pick and #39 pick that year plus first round picks in '13 (#22) and '14 (#2).

In 1977 the Seahawks gave up the #2 pick in exchange for the #14 pick plus 3 second round picks (#30, #41, #54)

In '01 the Chargers gave up the #1 pick for the #5 pick plus a 3rd round pick (#67) and a 2nd round pick the next year (#48)

In '99 the Redskins gave up the #5 pick in exchange for the #12 pick plus 5 other picks that year (3rd through 7th round) and a first (#5) and third (#64) the next year.  The only thing crazier than the amount the Saints gave up was the fact that FOUR teams passed on the deal.



If the Bengals could get anything close to any of those offers I think we have to jump on it.  QBs taken in the top 5 are nothing close to a sure thing.  The draft is more of a crap shoot than many people want to admit.  the best way to increase your chances of getting good players is to increase your number of chances.  Plus we have multiple holes to fill.

[Bengalholic]

This is why I thinks it's so important to see what Finley is capable of this season. If Finley can play well, despite the shitshow that he'll be surrounded with - and they feel he can be the guy for at least the immediate future - then it really opens things up.

If Finley stinks it up though, it makes it a lot harder to not take the risk and draft one of the top QB's.

[leonardfan40]

If we get a good haul and not have to drop out of the top 10 I’m all for it. I like a lot of the QB’s in this draft but none seem anywhere close to perfect. I’d rather pick up lots of picks and hope we get lucky. That’s really our only two hopes. Get lucky with a Brady/Rodgers/Brees who is so good he alone can take a bad team to 8-10 wins or get a lot of picks and hope we can get enough players to make the team good. I don’t like our odds either way with the way this team has drafted recently. The more picks we have the better chance we hit on a few I guess

[THE PISTONS]

I do worry when I see that Burrow rise up the charts so fast this year that he could be a 1 year wonder.

Part of the reason why Top 5 QB's don't work out a lot could be because they are generally going to the worst teams...whereas guys drafted later generally go to better teams.

Now that we've benched Andy...we've pretty much set our course towards drafting a new QB. The safer pick would be a Tackle or even DE.

[I_C_DeadPeople]

It won't matter who we pick in any round. This team can't win. Period.

[BengalChris]

(11-03-2019, 02:35 PM)fredtoast Wrote: In my opinion we are looking at a top 2 pick in the next draft.  If this happens then the big debate will be what should we do with that pick.  Some will say we need to use it on a QB because we may not have the chance to draft that high again.  Others will say we need to fix other parts of the team before we look for a QB.

I suppose the biggest question will be how good are the top QBs in this year's draft.  That is almost impossible to tell at this point.  The really in-depth draft analysis does not begin until after the college season is over.  It is not uncommon for the QB draft rankings to change between the end of the season and the draft.  But in connection with this we also need to look at how accurate these rankings have been for QBs taken in the top 5.  Here is a look at the QBs taken in the top 5 of previous drafts and the top QB taken in those drafts


'00... No top 5 QB.  (Chad Pennington first QB at #18)  Best.. Brady in 6th round but such extreme outlier that doesn't really count.
'01... Mike Vick (#1).  Best.. Brees (#32)
'02... David Carr (#1) Joey harrington (#3).  Best.. David Garrard (#108)
'03... Palmer (#1) also best.
'04... Eli Manning (#1) Phillip Rivers (#4).  Hard to say who was the best QB in that draft, but Roethlisberger went #11
'05... Alex Smith (#1).  Best.. Aaron Rodgers (#25)
'06... Vince Young (#3).  Best.. Young actually played very well (2 Pro Bowls, .620 win percentage), but Jay Cutler (#11) had better career.
'07... JaMarcus Russell (#1).  Best..  Kevin Kolb (#36)?
'08... Matt Ryan (#3) also best
'09... Matt Stafford (#1) Mark Sanchez (#5).  Best.. Stafford
'10... Sam Bradford (#1) also best'11... Cam Newton (#1).  Best.. Amdy Dalton (#35)     
'12... Andrew Luck (#1) Robert Griffen (#2).  Best.. Russell Wilson (#75) but this draft was also an extreme outlier with guys like Brandon Weeden (#22) and Brock Osweiler (#57) going in the 1st and 2nd rounds while Willson, Nick Foles (#88) and Kirk Cousins (#102) lasted to the 3rd and 4th.
'13... No top 5 QB and really no good QB at all.  And this just one year after 3 good starters lasted until the third round.
'14... Blake Bortles (#3).  Best.. Derek Carr (#36) or Jimmy Garoppolo (#62).  Teddy Bridgewater also went #32.
'15... Jameis Winstead (#1), Marcus Mariota (#2).  Best..  No other good QBs.
'16... Jared Goff (#1) Carson Wentz (#2).  Best.. Goff and Wentz are both good, but Dak Prescott went #135.
'17... Mitchell Trubisky (#2).  Best..Patrick Mahomes (#10) Deshaun Watson (#12).
'18... Baker Mayfield (#1) Sam Darnold (#3).  Best..  Really too early to tell (see: Vince Young) but Lamar Jackson went #32.


So over the last 20 years over two-thirds of the time the best QB was not taken in the top 5 picks.  Some will argue that this may also apply to all other positions as well.  I think teams "reach" for a QB more than any other position and this is why so many questionable QBs are taken in the top 5 picks.


Next we have to look at the value of a top 5 pick.  Many people have been complaining about the Bengals not trading players for picks, but any player we trade to get any sort of decent pick would just create another hole in our roster.  It is a zero net sum gain.  We would probably gain some cap space by replacing solid starters with cheaper rookies, but not all picks turn into solid starters.  So we may just be creating more holes to fill.  The best way to gain a lot of picks is to trade away a top 2 pick.  Here are some examples of what a top 2 pick can be worth.  Of course this varies from year to year based on how high the top 2 college players are rated, but we won't know that until after the season is over.

In 2016 the Titans gave up the #1 pick (plus a 4th and 6th round pick) in exchange for the #15 pick, two 2nd round picks (#43 and #45) and a 3rd (#76) that year in addition to a 1st round and 3rd round pick in 2017.

In 2011 the Browns gave up the #6 pick in exchange for a 1st (#27), 2nd (#54) and 4th (#124) that year plus a 1st and 4th the next year.

In 1998 the Cardinals dropped just one spot in the draft (from #2 to #3) and also received the Cards '98 second round pick (#33) and '99 first round pick (#8) plus 2 players.  

In 2012 the Rams gave up the #2 pick in the draft for the #6 pick and #39 pick that year plus first round picks in '13 (#22) and '14 (#2).

In 1977 the Seahawks gave up the #2 pick in exchange for the #14 pick plus 3 second round picks (#30, #41, #54)

In '01 the Chargers gave up the #1 pick for the #5 pick plus a 3rd round pick (#67) and a 2nd round pick the next year (#48)

In '99 the Redskins gave up the #5 pick in exchange for the #12 pick plus 5 other picks that year (3rd through 7th round) and a first (#5) and third (#64) the next year.  The only thing crazier than the amount the Saints gave up was the fact that FOUR teams passed on the deal.



If the Bengals could get anything close to any of those offers I think we have to jump on it.  QBs taken in the top 5 are nothing close to a sure thing.  The draft is more of a crap shoot than many people want to admit.  the best way to increase your chances of getting good players is to increase your number of chances.  Plus we have multiple holes to fill.

The draft is more like Black Jack. If you inept at the game you can still win a hand now and then. If you understand the game, you'll still have bad hands, but you'll win a lot more hands than the guy who is inept.

As your list suggests, there are decent and good QBs to be had outside the top 5.

With a top 2 pick you almost have to take the best player who is there regardless of position.

The sad part is that the Bengals will not competently fill needs in free agency. Say Chase Young is there and the best guy (not saying that he is or will even be there with the 2nd pick) and the Bengals take him. They will not find a good RT is free agency. They will not find a good LB in free agency. Instead, they'll take a OT in the second, a LBer in the 3rd, a WR to replace AJ Green (who I believe is all but gone) in the 4th and 5th or something like that.

Next season, nothing will be fixed and ineptitude of Mike Brown ball will continue.

 

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-03-2019, 05:22 PM)I_C_DeadPeople Wrote: It won't matter who we pick in any round. This team can't win. Period.

We had 5 winning seasons in a row with a mediocre QB. Who knows what could happen if we strike gold on an elite one. Obviously the cards will be stacked against him with the way this franchise is run, but I will never agree with those that say “nobody can win here.” QB is such an important position, if we land an absolute stud it gives us a puncher’s chance. And TBF the team is run slighty better than it used to be.

[reuben.ahmed]

OK, we don't need the best QB, we need a better than average QB. A higher pick has a higher likelihood, not everyone is Thomas Brady. Michael Vick was a killer in a draft with Brees being the best. There are a lot of good QBs in this upcoming draft regardless, we need a QB if Finley shows nothing. We need every position other than WR/RB, I'd say. The defensive line is in as much shambles as the offensive line.

[*psychdoctor*]

I'm leaning towards the Cincinnati Bengals staying put and drafting Chase Young.but they better grab a quarterback in round two because I have a feeling there's going to be a run on quarterbacks next year.

[NATI BENGALS]

We need a lot. I think the obvious solution is to turn that top pick into a boatload of early picks. And then trade down again with whatever pick we end up with.

Drop from 1st to like 7-8 and get a huge haul. Drop from 7-8 to 15-20 and get another huge haul.

Then let anyone besides Mike Brown and Tobin make our draft picks. Monkey throwing darts would be fine.

[Nicomo Cosca]

If they trade the #1OA I’m officially done with this team.

[THE PISTONS]

(11-03-2019, 07:42 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: If they trade the #1OA I’m officially done with this team.

Yeah I think we need to keep it too. Our scouting would likely both more lower picks.

[*Synric*]

(11-03-2019, 06:26 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: I'm leaning towards the Cincinnati Bengals staying put and drafting Chase Young.but they better grab a quarterback in round two because I have a feeling there's going to be a run on quarterbacks next year.

I dont think drafting a franchise QB works like that...You have to find the guy that fits what you want to do.

I hope Zac gets his guy. If they can trade back collect extra picks and get him even better but if they have to spend the #1 overall on him I'm fine with that too.

[I_C_DeadPeople]

(11-03-2019, 06:21 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote:  And TBF the team is run slighty better than it used to be.

It is? How so? The past few drafts and free agent seasons say otherwise.

The structure of the team is built for failure in the same way the structure of the Pats is built to succeed. 

Th team has a 1/2 scouting staff that HAS to hit on more picks than other teams in order to succeed and sustain success. Good luck with that.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-03-2019, 08:26 PM)I_C_DeadPeople Wrote: It is? How so? The past few drafts and free agent seasons say otherwise.

The structure of the team is built for failure in the same way the structure of the Pats is built to succeed. 

Th team has a 1/2 scouting staff that HAS to hit on more picks than other teams in order to succeed and sustain success. Good luck with that.

Firing coaches midseason, moving on from guys like Burfict, benching Dalton, etc. All things that even a handful of years ago would seem like they would never happen under Mike Brown.

I also don’t think the cheapness is quite as bad as it used to be. Used jock straps, players paying for Gatorade/towels etc. We now have a top notch weight room, MRI inside PBS, etc.

Don’t get me wrong, we’re still one of the worst run franchises in the league, but it’s a bit better than it was is the 90’s/00’s.

[*Nately120*]

I assume we use the #1 overall pick just because the prospect of trading down for more picks and having to use them and/or pay attention to the draft seems like it would be an unwanted burden for Mike Brown. Based on Mike Brown's lax attitude towards the 2019 trade deadline I'm convinced he turned down the 27 picks for Akili Smith not because he wanted Smith, but because he didn't want to have to go through the trouble of dealing with all the picks he'd get for him.

More picks = more work

[CJD]

Top 5 picks aren't a sure thing. No pick is. But elite QBs are often taken at the top of the draft. Scott Wright's Draftcountdown.com used to have a tally for 2nd round QBs and their success and it was basically a dead zone. Drew Brees was, at the time of the article, one of the very few exceptions, with Dalton being another. But, generally speaking, if a QB isn't worth taking in the first round, their statistical success rate plummets.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-03-2019, 09:06 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Top 5 picks aren't a sure thing. No pick is. But elite QBs are often taken at the top of the draft. Scott Wright's Draftcountdown.com used to have a tally for 2nd round QBs and their success and it was basically a dead zone. Drew Brees was, at the time of the article, one of the very few exceptions, with Dalton being another. But, generally speaking, if a QB isn't worth taking in the first round, their statistical success rate plummets.

You’re much more likely to find the next Mahomes or Watson in the 1st, than you are to find a Brady, Wilson, or Brees, late. Just a fact.

We need a QB, and will likely have the #1OA pick. Seems like a no-brainer to go QB to me. As tempting as taking Chase Young, would be, we’re not in a good enough spot to take him.

[Jojo the Circus Boy]

(11-03-2019, 08:54 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I assume we use the #1 overall pick just because the prospect of trading down for more picks and having to use them and/or pay attention to the draft seems like it would be an unwanted burden for Mike Brown.  Based on Mike Brown's lax attitude towards the 2019 trade deadline I'm convinced he turned down the 27 picks for Akili Smith not because he wanted Smith, but because he didn't want to have to go through the trouble of dealing with all the picks he'd get for him.

More picks = more work

We might be screwed if we want to trade down this year. Out of the worst 6 teams this year, only the Bengals and Dolphins seem to have an opening at QB. Maybe we get lucky and Dolphins want a certain QB no matter what. Or else:
Today #3  Redskins have Haskins waiting and a big hole at LT so Thomas seems to be their pick.
4. Falcons have Ryan at QB
5. Jets have Darnold. Maybe they admit a mistake? That would cost a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick.
6. Giants  have Jones
7. Broncos have a QB need, unless they feel Lock will be healthy and get it next year. What's the price to move up from 7 to 1? 1st round 2020 and 2021 at a minimum. Or 1st round, 2nd round, and all 3 of their 3rd round picks.
Would be nice, and Elway is always looking for that franchise QB, but don't see it happening.

[J24]

(11-03-2019, 09:51 PM)Jojo the Circus Boy Wrote: We might be screwed if we want to trade down this year. Out of the worst 6 teams this year, only the Bengals and Dolphins seem to have an opening at QB. Maybe we get lucky and Dolphins want a certain QB no matter what. Or else:
Today #3  Redskins have Haskins waiting and a big hole at LT so Thomas seems to be their pick.
4. Falcons have Ryan at QB
5. Jets have Darnold. Maybe they admit a mistake? That would cost a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick.
6. Giants  have Jones
7. Broncos have a QB need, unless they feel Lock will be healthy and get it next year. What's the price to move up from 7 to 1? 1st round 2020 and 2021 at a minimum. Or 1st round, 2nd round, and all 3 of their 3rd round picks.
Would be nice, and Elway is always looking for that franchise QB, but don't see it happening.

All of those teams are going to want Chase Young. Dude is a franchise changer.