Best WR Draft in Decades

[Au165]

Thought this was interesting with the looming AJ Green decision.

I started scouting in 2003. This upcoming WR class is the best I've ever seen.

— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) November 13, 2019

For context, many people know about guys like Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Tee Higgins. The real value in this draft is in the 3rd and 4th round with guys like Collin Johnson, Michael Pittman Jr. and Nico Collins. In most drafts that 2nd group would be fringe 1st rounders maybe 2nd rounders, but this year they are going to drop with the shear depth at the position. Heck, even a guy like Justin Jefferson could find himself on the board in the opening of the 1st round but in a lot of years he'd be a pick 10-20 pick in the 1st round.

[*Synric*]

It might also be the best group of Corners we have seen in a while.

[Au165]

(11-13-2019, 04:02 PM)Synric Wrote: It might also be the best group of Corners we have seen in a while.

Yea, very solid on the edges this year and at two positions we may need to use day 2 picks on which is good for us.

[Whatever]

(11-13-2019, 03:17 PM)Au165 Wrote: Thought this was interesting with the looming AJ Green decision.

I started scouting in 2003. This upcoming WR class is the best I've ever seen.

— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) November 13, 2019

For context, many people know about guys like Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Tee Higgins. The real value in this draft is in the 3rd and 4th round with guys like Collin Johnson, Michael Pittman Jr. and Nico Collins. In most drafts that 2nd group would be fringe 1st rounders maybe 2nd rounders, but this year they are going to drop with the shear depth at the position. Heck, even a guy like Justin Jefferson could find himself on the board in the opening of the 1st round but in a lot of years he'd be a pick 10-20 pick in the 1st round.

This is just another reason to cut bait with AJ after the season.  Instead of tagging him, put that money towards the OL and LB's and draft a replacement.

[Au165]

(11-13-2019, 09:43 PM)Whatever Wrote: This is just another reason to cut bait with AJ after the season.  Instead of tagging him, put that money towards the OL and LB's and draft a replacement.

I think the play is to move him after the season. Teams may be thinking we will let him walk so a tag may be needed to force other teams to pay up which will come with a portion of dead cap, but I think it's worth it. I can see the other side though, if we are going to draft a WR #1 overall you can help make him look good by letting him throw to AJ Green. I can see both sides of it but I lean in the trade him camp.

[SunsetBengal]

(11-14-2019, 09:16 AM)Au165 Wrote: I think the play is to move him after the season. Teams may be thinking we will let him walk so a tag may be needed to force other teams to pay up which will come with a portion of dead cap, but I think it's worth it. I can see the other side though, if we are going to draft a WR #1 overall you can help make him look good by letting him throw to AJ Green. I can see both sides of it but I lean in the trade him camp.

Perhaps a potential sign & trade deal could be in the works?  (I realize that is a lot to expect from the Bengals organization)  But, if they wait until after the season, won't AJ's value plummet, with the upcoming plethora of WR talent expected in the draft?

[Au165]

(11-14-2019, 09:59 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Perhaps a potential sign & trade deal could be in the works?  (I realize that is a lot to expect from the Bengals organization)  But, if they wait until after the season, won't AJ's value plummet, with the upcoming plethora of WR talent expected in the draft?

Sign and trade would require some really good contract structure to avoid us eating the signing bonus which would be really bad for us. You'd almost have to go with a no signing bonus structure but a massive year 1 guaranteed salary and then maybe a pretty substantial year 2 roster bonus. I think it's more likely we trade him on an expiring contract with the receiving team and AJ's reps having a back door agreement in place post trade. If not then a tag and trade makes sense.

Not really, because look at a guy like N'Keal Harry. He was a 1st round pick and while he was hurt, so that played a role, the Patriots went after WR hard all season (Antonio Brown, Sanu, supposedly another WR at deadline). Rookie WR's are hit and miss year 1 which is why a contender would value a really good vet over someone who may be better in two or three years. AJ's value is to a team who wants to win now, someone like the Saints who don't know how much more of Brees they will get. 

[Whatever]

(11-14-2019, 09:16 AM)Au165 Wrote: I think the play is to move him after the season. Teams may be thinking we will let him walk so a tag may be needed to force other teams to pay up which will come with a portion of dead cap, but I think it's worth it. I can see the other side though, if we are going to draft a WR #1 overall you can help make him look good by letting him throw to AJ Green. I can see both sides of it but I lean in the trade him camp.

I think the FT carries too much risk. The tag becomes the floor for guaranteed money in his next deal and I don't see anyone giving him $18 mil guaranteed.  With a strong draft class and lots of viable FA options like Amari Cooper and Tyreek Hill, I can see a trade not coming to fruition.  

The other possibility is he signs the tag and milks another injury next year.

[Au165]

(11-14-2019, 10:59 AM)Whatever Wrote: I think the FT carries too much risk. The tag becomes the floor for guaranteed money in his next deal and I don't see anyone giving him $18 mil guaranteed.  With a strong draft class and lots of viable FA options like Amari Cooper and Tyreek Hill, I can see a trade not coming to fruition.  

The other possibility is he signs the tag and milks another injury next year.

Carries no risk really. It's a one year deal for a veteran player that will need to pass a physical upon trade. You don't look at it as 18 Million guaranteed, you look at it as his total salary year 1 because if he is on your roster after week 1 his salary is guaranteed anyways so it really doesn't matter. There will be plenty of teams who will give him a contract with 18 Million realized in the first year of the deal, most will want to front load any deal with him due to his age. Teams trying to win now aren't going to risk drafting a WR where rookie production is so hit and miss. Tyreek Hill resigned so he isn't a FA option and there is still a possibility Cooper gets tagged if the Cowboys can get a deal done with Dak.

The last comment is just ignorant so no real discussion here.

[*psychdoctor*]

(11-13-2019, 03:17 PM)Au165 Wrote: Thought this was interesting with the looming AJ Green decision.

I started scouting in 2003. This upcoming WR class is the best I've ever seen.

— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) November 13, 2019

For context, many people know about guys like Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Tee Higgins. The real value in this draft is in the 3rd and 4th round with guys like Collin Johnson, Michael Pittman Jr. and Nico Collins. In most drafts that 2nd group would be fringe 1st rounders maybe 2nd rounders, but this year they are going to drop with the shear depth at the position. Heck, even a guy like Justin Jefferson could find himself on the board in the opening of the 1st round but in a lot of years he'd be a pick 10-20 pick in the 1st round.

CeeDee Lamb is amazing.  But the realistic option for the Bengals that I really like is Tyler Johnson.  He is TO without the drama.  

[Au165]

(11-14-2019, 02:22 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: CeeDee Lamb is amazing.  But the realistic option for the Bengals that I really like is Tyler Johnson.  He is TO without the drama.  

Lamb looks like OBJ to me in terms of catch and run ability.

I like a bunch of 3-6 round guys and would even consider one in the 2nd if the right guys fell, like a Justin Jefferson especially if we go Burrow in the 1st. 

[Whatever]

(11-14-2019, 11:12 AM)Au165 Wrote: Carries no risk really. It's a one year deal for a veteran player that will need to pass a physical upon trade. You don't look at it as 18 Million guaranteed, you look at it as his total salary year 1 because if he is on your roster after week 1 his salary is guaranteed anyways so it really doesn't matter. There will be plenty of teams who will give him a contract with 18 Million realized in the first year of the deal, most will want to front load any deal with him due to his age. Teams trying to win now aren't going to risk drafting a WR where rookie production is so hit and miss. Tyreek Hill resigned so he isn't a FA option and there is still a possibility Cooper gets tagged if the Cowboys can get a deal done with Dak.

The last comment is just ignorant so no real discussion here.

AJ has missed the last 16 games and counting.  He turns 32 before the start of next season.  He's missed 6 or more games 3 of the last 4 years.  He will be 2 years removed from his last 1,000 yard season.  Nobody is giving him $18+ mil in year one except maybe the Bengals, and they're dumb if they do.  He is too much of an Injury risk.  Any "win now" team that would trade for him isn't going to front load a deal for him because they're trying to cram as much talent under the cap as possible for their big run.  You're probably looking at a 2-3 year deal with a low base salary in year one offset by the signing bonus and the ability to cut him and essentially break even against the cap in year 2.  

Nobody is going to immediately jump on him, either.  They're going to try and land a FA WR.  If they can't land one, they'll draft one high and evaluate them in TC.  Then, they may look to make a move during final cuts if they aren't convinced by what they have.  Meanwhile, you have almost 20% of your cap space set aside for him during the start of FA.  That's a big reason why tag and trades are so rare.

On top of that, AJ can block any trade by refusing to sign the FT and/or refusing to negotiate.  He can wait to sign the FT until the middle of next year.  He could sit out entirely.  

As far as ignorant comments, I have to assume you believe AJ is actually not adequately healed up enough to play by this point.  If a high ankle sprain is legitimately enough to sideline him for 17+ weeks, the length of an entire season, in what reality do you think some team is going to trade something of significant value for him, then back a Brinks truck up to his door?  The man has said himself that he will not play unless he's 100% and he's taking care of himself first.  If we're stuck with him next year on the FT, I don't see that changing.

[*ochocincos*]

What the fans think when they hear/see how good this WR class should be:
"Wow, this could be a great opportunity to get an elite WR in the 1st or 2nd round!"

What the Bengals FO thinks on the same:
"Wow, we can wait until the 5th round to get a WR since they'll be so good!"

[Au165]

(11-18-2019, 12:26 PM)ochocincos Wrote: What the fans think when they hear/see how good this WR class should be:
"Wow, this could be a great opportunity to get an elite WR in the 1st or 2nd round!"

What the Bengals FO thinks on the same:
"Wow, we can wait until the 5th round to get a WR since they'll be so good!"

To be fair, that is kind of the point. Even if we wait until the 3rd or 4th round the talent there will be much higher than in most classes. A guy like KJ Hill could be around in the 5th round. There are a lot of bigger bodied receivers if we are looking for more of a 6'4 deep threat.

[*ochocincos*]

(11-18-2019, 12:39 PM)Au165 Wrote: To be fair, that is kind of the point. Even if we wait until the 3rd or 4th round the talent there will be much higher than in most classes. A guy like KJ Hill could be around in the 5th round. There are a lot of bigger bodied receivers if we are looking for more of a 6'4 deep threat.

Correct, but there's also something to be said for being near the top of a loaded class.

[Whatever]

(11-18-2019, 02:12 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Correct, but there's also something to be said for being near the top of a loaded class.

I would frankly double dip.  Get one in 2 or 3 and another one in 4-5.

[*ochocincos*]

(11-18-2019, 03:19 PM)Whatever Wrote: I would frankly double dip.  Get one in 2 or 3 and another one in 4-5.

For them to do that, they would have to deliberately go out of their comfort zone to address OL and/or LB in FA or trades.

[*Synric*]

Denzel Mims and Isaiah Hodges are a couple outside receivers I have my eye on they will likely be 3rd round picks. Mims is probably the most explosive WR in the draft and Hodges is an AJ Green clone.

A late round guy I'm watching is Joe Reed.

[Au165]

(12-05-2019, 12:18 PM)Synric Wrote: Denzel Mims and Isaiah Hodges are a couple outside receivers I have my eye on they will likely be 3rd round picks. Mims is probably the most explosive WR in the draft and Hodges is an AJ Green clone.

A late round guy I'm watching is Joe Reed.

Collin Johnson, Michel Pittman, Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk all guys who could be around in the 3rd or 4th and could come in and be effective year 1. This class is just so friggin deep.

[*SHRacerX*]

If they get Burrow, get one of his big play guys, Justin Jefferson.  Great size, speed, and length.  Might be there in the middle rounds.