Burrow, Tua, or Herbert?

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-19-2019, 11:56 PM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: I understand, and if it were a different year, I would agree. You caught me before I could edit my post. I am aware of the percentages.
 
I feel you, trust me. I like Tua, Joe, and Herbert. Ts, I also like Hurts, Eason, Mond,Stanely, and Montez. Plus there is always a Carson Wentz that shows up at the combine.

If the Bengals second round pick was later in the round, I might be concerned. 

I'll be rooting for Young, then Hurts. It has nothing to do with being a Bucks fan. It has to do with the possibility of getting the best pass rusher in the draft at #1 ( getting a DE, one of the leagues highest paid positions, under a rookie contract I would like to add), then getting a QB with first round talent at #2.

I'm not opposed to grabbing Burrow, but I like the other scenario better.

If they trade spots with Miami so the fins can get Burrow, they could still draft Young and have another first round pick from Miami.  

[Whatever]

(11-21-2019, 09:04 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: If they trade spots with Miami so the fins can get Burrow, they could still draft Young and have another first round pick from Miami.  

Miami is 4th in the current draft order.  If we traded down with them either the Skins or Giants would take Young.  We would basically be trading down for Herbert.

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-21-2019, 10:59 AM)Whatever Wrote: Miami is 4th in the current draft order.  If we traded down with them either the Skins or Giants would take Young.  We would basically be trading down for Herbert.

True, but Miami lost to Washington head-to-head.  If they finish with the same record as Washington, they pick before them.  Then it would go Cincy, NYG, and Miami.  And I really doubt the Giants don't eek out a win over AZ at home or against the Jets.  Then, they could be second.  The thing that will make the Bengal's first overall pick so valuable is the Giants and Redskins won't likely be taking a QB.  Teams like Tampa, Denver, Jacksonville, Chicago, Titans, and possibly the steelers will be wanting to take a QB.

I'm sure the Bengals could be offered the next ten years of first round picks and will turn it down to take Burrow, so I guess the point of all this discussion is moot.  

[Whatever]

(11-22-2019, 10:30 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: True, but Miami lost to Washington head-to-head.  If they finish with the same record as Washington, they pick before them.  Then it would go Cincy, NYG, and Miami.  And I really doubt the Giants don't eek out a win over AZ at home or against the Jets.  Then, they could be second.  The thing that will make the Bengal's first overall pick so valuable is the Giants and Redskins won't likely be taking a QB.  Teams like Tampa, Denver, Jacksonville, Chicago, Titans, and possibly the steelers will be wanting to take a QB.

I'm sure the Bengals could be offered the next ten years of first round picks and will turn it down to take Burrow, so I guess the point of all this discussion is moot.  

Head to Head makes no difference as they aren't in the same division or conference.  SoS is always the #1 tiebreaker, then division playoff tiebreakers if they are in the same division, then conference playoff tiebreakers if they are in the same conference, then a coin flip.

The Bengals currently have the toughest SoS among the bottom 4 teams, meaning we lose the tiebreakers.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-22-2019, 11:04 AM)Whatever Wrote: Head to Head makes no difference as they aren't in the same division or conference.  SoS is always the #1 tiebreaker, then division playoff tiebreakers if they are in the same division, then conference playoff tiebreakers if they are in the same conference, then a coin flip.

The Bengals currently have the toughest SoS among the bottom 4 teams, meaning we lose the tiebreakers.  

Ok, if SoS is the tie-breaker and Miami plays in the AFC East against the Pats and Bills, while the Redskins have the hapless NFC East....I don't know without breaking down all the schedules, but I hope Miami is picking 2nd and the Bengals first.  

Miami will likely pick up another win (against Cincy), though. 

[Au165]

I'd just once again like to preempt a story we will start hearing as the process goes along. From what I have been told, Burrow is going to be a really tough interview. Teams that meet with him are going to be impressed with his knowledge but he is going to come across as arrogant. I think it's going to turn off some teams because your going to get a little bit of a Baker Mayfield feel.

Just something to keep your eye on over the next couple months.

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-25-2019, 09:18 AM)Au165 Wrote: I'd just once again like to preempt a story we will start hearing as the process goes along. From what I have been told, Burrow is going to be a really tough interview. Teams that meet with him are going to be impressed with his knowledge but he is going to come across as arrogant. I think it's going to turn off some teams because your going to get a little bit of a Baker Mayfield feel.

Just something to keep your eye on over the next couple months.

I just heard something similar, forget where...but people say he is "a different card" but has supreme confidence in his abilities and his teammates love him.  Sounds a bit like Esiason, eh?

I can dream about Young decapitating Piggy all I want, the Bengals will be taking a QB, and I would bet it is Burrow.  I just hope they can make some significant strides around him or it won't matter one bit.  

I see Russell Wilson is a FA next season....Wonder if any amount of money could bring him here?  And to think he was available in the third round.  

[Au165]

(11-25-2019, 09:22 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I just heard something similar, forget where...but people say he is "a different card" but has supreme confidence in his abilities and his teammates love him.  Sounds a bit like Esiason, eh?

I can dream about Young decapitating Piggy all I want, the Bengals will be taking a QB, and I would bet it is Burrow.  I just hope they can make some significant strides around him or it won't matter one bit.  

I see Russell Wilson is a FA next season....Wonder if any amount of money could bring him here?  And to think he was available in the third round.  

Teammates love Baker Mayfield too,  but his ego has definitely hindered his progression. I think the discussions with Joe Brady and maybe even Urban Meyer will be really important to understand who he is.

Wilson's contract runs through 2023.

[*psychdoctor*]

The only QB worthy of first pick is Burrow. I just don't know. He certainly has been impressive against colleges best competition but there are some games to be played and let us see how he does in the SEC championship game and college playoffs. If Burrow wins out and continues to look impressive, especially if LSU beats OSU in the playoffs, then I think Bengals would have to take him.

If Burrow shows any weakness down the stretch, I say go Young first overall, then select Eason in round 2 if Tua is not there. If Tua is there in round 2, it would be hard to pass on him even with his injury history.

It comes down to this: Can Burrow be replaced with a QB that may be less accurate but has a better arm?

Can Young be replaced with Weaver, or Gross-Matos?

Burrow would have to have some arrogance to play QB for the Bengals because, lets face it, he will have to have some narcissism to survive Mike Brown and a dysfunctional team. Bengals need superman. Young and Burrow both fit the bill.

[*bengalfan74*]

(11-25-2019, 09:18 AM)Au165 Wrote: I'd just once again like to preempt a story we will start hearing as the process goes along. From what I have been told, Burrow is going to be a really tough interview. Teams that meet with him are going to be impressed with his knowledge but he is going to come across as arrogant. I think it's going to turn off some teams because your going to get a little bit of a Baker Mayfield feel.

Just something to keep your eye on over the next couple months.

What you think and/or is being said at Herbert ? I watched a good bit of the game Saturday night and I wasn't impressed at all. The announcers were going on about his experience so many games blah, blah. But his decision making looked very suspect to me especially for all his "experience"

[*bengalfan74*]

(11-25-2019, 09:22 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I just heard something similar, forget where...but people say he is "a different card" but has supreme confidence in his abilities and his teammates love him.  Sounds a bit like Esiason, eh?

I can dream about Young decapitating Piggy all I want, the Bengals will be taking a QB, and I would bet it is Burrow.  I just hope they can make some significant strides around him or it won't matter one bit.  

I see Russell Wilson is a FA next season....Wonder if any amount of money could bring him here?  And to think he was available in the third round.  

Can't you see Young ear holing Big Jen   then Billings piling on.

[Au165]

(11-25-2019, 10:54 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: What you think and/or is being said at Herbert ? I watched a good bit of the game Saturday night and I wasn't impressed at all. The announcers were going on about his experience so many games blah, blah. But his decision making looked very suspect to me especially for all his "experience"

He is the same guy who went back to school last year rather than coming out. He doesn't handle pressure well, he locks into his first read and is late to come off it (if he even does), he can wow you with throws but then leave you scratching your head asking "what was he thinking". I think he has obvious upside, but I just think he will always be the guy who needs scheme created pre defined throws to succeed. I could see Bruce Arians falling in love with the guy though and mortgaging the farm to get him.

[Catmandude123]

Trading the #1 pick makes the most sense out of all the scenarios on here so far. Even if they only get a few extra picks it still would go a lot farther than one pick. The best case would be the FO parlaying the pick while trading back. First trading with the #2 team picking(even if its not the best deal offered). Then trade the #2 pick ( best QB or best overall player in the draft). This would give the team at lest four or five picks in the first two rounds. Take a QB and two linemen and a LBers . If the players aren't there you fill them with top notch FAs(money saved by cutting Glenn, Dalton and possibly Green). This would help more than any one player. The top QB or DL player would not help enough to turn the team around anytime soon.

[Au165]

(11-25-2019, 11:54 AM)Catmandude123 Wrote: Trading the #1 pick makes the most sense out of all the scenarios on here so far. Even if they only get a few extra picks it still would go a lot farther than one pick. The best case would be the FO parlaying the pick while trading back. First trading with the #2 team picking(even if its not the best deal offered). Then trade the #2 pick ( best QB or best overall player in the draft). This would give the team at lest four or five picks in the first two rounds. Take a QB and two linemen and a LBers . If the players aren't there you fill them with top notch FAs(money saved by cutting Glenn, Dalton and possibly Green). This would help more than any one player. The top QB or DL player would not help enough to turn the team around anytime soon.

There is a reason this doesn't ever happen. As I explained in another thread, that always sounds good but then you realize few are willing to pay to get #1 anymore. There have been multiple interviews, I remember being Cleveland being one of them a couple years back, where they basically said teams called but they weren't giving up nearly enough to make it worth moving. Moving out of #1 for a couple day 3 picks or maybe a 3rd doesn't really help much because the bust rates when you get there are so high you are essentially trading a sure thing for a couple gambles. 

Quantity is definitely a common belief in the analytics community, however #1 is a different beast though because they tend to bust at a much lower rate then all other picks. If we were the 7th pick for instance, I agree that trading back multiple times is actually the approach but at this position you either get the full value for trading out (unlikely) or you make the pick and ensure you get a star player. 

[Catmandude123]

(11-25-2019, 12:10 PM)Au165 Wrote: There is a reason this doesn't ever happen. As I explained in another thread, that always sounds good but then you realize few are willing to pay to get #1 anymore. There have been multiple interviews, I remember being Cleveland being one of them a couple years back, where they basically said teams called but they weren't giving up nearly enough to make it worth moving. Moving out of #1 for a couple day 3 picks or maybe a 3rd doesn't really help much because the bust rates when you get there are so high you are essentially trading a sure thing for a couple gambles. 

Quantity is definitely a common belief in the analytics community, however #1 is a different beast though because they tend to bust at a much lower rate then all other picks. If we were the 7th pick for instance, I agree that trading back multiple times is actually the approach but at this position you either get the full value for trading out (unlikely) or you make the pick and ensure you get a star player. 

I agree that the top pick is usually more successful but Burrows could also be the next coming of Jamarcus, Winston , Bradford, Carr, etc. Based on improving the total team talent trading back makes more sense. The main reason they won't is because of the wow factor that Burrows will bring and help to sell more tickets. Even though MB will shed Dalton(17mil) , Glenn (9mil) and possibly AJs(15 mil) contracts don't look for him to try to get a FA QB.

[Au165]

(11-25-2019, 02:12 PM)Catmandude123 Wrote: I agree that the top pick is usually more successful but Burrows could also be the next coming of Jamarcus, Winston , Bradford, Carr, etc. Based on improving the total team talent trading back makes more sense. The main reason they won't is because of the wow factor that Burrows will bring and help to sell more tickets. Even though MB will shed Dalton(17mil) , Glenn (9mil) and possibly AJs(15 mil) contracts don't look for him to try to get a FA QB.

This is actually interesting if you look at it...

Jamarcus Russell's issue really came from the fact that he was lazy. He has the talent, but he simply was lazy.

Winston turned the ball over too much in college and they thought they could fix him. In reality a guy who turns the ball over too much will always turn the ball over too much, that is one of the biggest red flags when evaluating a QB.

Bradford was a good NFL QB he simply got hurt too often. The red flags were there with how injury prone he was in college, which is why I continue to comp Tua to Bradford. They both will go down as superb talents who can't stay on the field.

Carr was simply sacked into oblivion. He is the reason I don't want a QB 1 overall because you can "break" a young QB by getting them hit too often. After so many hits you start hearing footsteps and it messes you up, which we have seen with Dalton over the last year or two.

Now don't get me wrong, I have questions about Burrow too. The one year leap is a flag, but at the same time the coordinator is an NFL coach and the scheme will translate. He could obviously fail, but if we are simply talking about the safest way to ensure we get better it is taking Burrow or Young at 1. I made a whole thread about why we are better off not taking a QB this year, in reality this isn't a one year fix it is a 2-3 year plan to get back to relevancy but trading back from 1 doesn't necessarily ensure that speeds up in any significant way.

[Hammerstripes]

Herbert is no longer in the discussion for me. He's been to inconsistient even after being at Oregon forever.

And for those that keep talking about how rare of a prospect that Chase Young is, remember the last guy on the D-line that got Heismann Hype - Suh. He turned out to be a above average guy, but never the world beater and HOF guy that he was projected to be.

There are questions with all draft picks. I would be happy with either Young or Burrow, but if we pass on a QB, i think it will take a long time before we get one.

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-25-2019, 10:58 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Can't you see Young ear holing Big Jen   then Billings piling on.

My dream is Hubbard and Young hit him at the same time from different sides and he shits his pants...Only to suffer the indignity of having to run off the field with huge stains in his yellow pants, which becomes his "butt fumble" and is shown on highlight reels for years to come.  Ahhh, my dream

[Au165]

(11-25-2019, 07:44 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: And for those that keep talking about how rare of a prospect that Chase Young is, remember the last guy on the D-line that got Heismann Hype - Suh.  He turned out to be a above average guy, but never the world beater and HOF guy that he was projected to be.

...what? At one point Suh was one of the 5 best defenders in the NFL. Honestly, his biggest issue was his off field issues that kept getting him in trouble and then his ego when he left Detroit. With that said, "Heisman Hype" isn't a draft evaluation. Suh did not come out graded as high as Young will and at a position of less impact nonetheless.

This, "Hey, remember that one guy? Yea see it may not work" thing can happen for any player by the way. Want me to do it for a QB? I can do it for O line if that's your cup of tea. Chase Young will come out graded as the highest graded defender we have seen in 10 years maybe outside Jalen Ramsey, but certainly the highest graded pass rusher. Whether you want to take him or not is kind of irrelevant to that evaluation. 

[kalibengal]

(11-19-2019, 12:03 PM)sandwedge Wrote: None of the 3. Chase Young will go a lot further helping this team next season than a QB. I like Fields in 2021 though!

as of right now...I like the scenario of Young #1, Jalen Hurts #2 and hopefully we have another #2 from a Dalton trade to pick up an OL or LB hopefully not recommended by Dukie.I dot know what they pay this guy but I did better using my Lindeys Draft Guide during the draft on players that were available over the yrs.  No scouting visits, per diems, air fare. MB should jump all over that!