Chase Young or Joe Burrow ?

[*ochocincos*]

(12-05-2019, 11:29 AM)Au165 Wrote: Bad lines expose offenses, the Rams struggles this year at times on offense is due to the rapid degradation of their O line. Until the O line issues are fixed the offense will be bad, maybe not 31st in scoring bad, but bad as we have seen the last 4 years.

Fully agree. Whether they want to address via draft and/or FA, the offense will struggle until OL is improved.

[Whatever]

(12-05-2019, 12:50 PM)Au165 Wrote: Correct, but the concerns about Burrow coming in and being pummeled are well founded is my point. Short of signing an established RT he will get hit a lot next year. 

The Bengals are tied for 17th in QB Hits allowed this year with 69. The worst teams in the league are up over 100 in this category.  The "a rookie QB will get pummeled and ruined behind this OL" argument is overly dramatic and not really based in statistical fact.

[Catmandude123]

(12-05-2019, 02:01 PM)Whatever Wrote: The Bengals are tied for 17th in QB Hits allowed this year with 69. The worst teams in the league are up over 100 in this category.  The "a rookie QB will get pummeled and ruined behind this OL" argument is overly dramatic and not really based in statistical fact.

I have to admit I only watched him in the Bama game but he was able to extend plays by throwing out of the pocket and running . I think he will need to learn not to challenge defensive players and just take what the defense gives you. With Burrow under center it will put pressure on defenses that will help the linemen control the rush. Pinning their ears back and expecting the QB to be in a certain spot will not be that easy against Burrow.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-05-2019, 02:01 PM)Whatever Wrote: The Bengals are tied for 17th in QB Hits allowed this year with 69. The worst teams in the league are up over 100 in this category.  The "a rookie QB will get pummeled and ruined behind this OL" argument is overly dramatic and not really based in statistical fact.

Thank you.

Also, in before “well that’s only because of Dalton’s lightning quick release!”

[Au165]

(12-05-2019, 02:01 PM)Whatever Wrote: The Bengals are tied for 17th in QB Hits allowed this year with 69. The worst teams in the league are up over 100 in this category.  The "a rookie QB will get pummeled and ruined behind this OL" argument is overly dramatic and not really based in statistical fact.

69 on 258 drop backs or 26.7% of the time. When you actually adjust for the amount of attempts the QB is hit on rather than a single number that disregards the fact many people with more hits passed way more then you see we are top 7.

Also it’s important to note sacks aren’t hits. Along with the hits we are sacked at a rate that puts us at 27th in the league (27th is really bad).

Edit: had to adjust the number of teams trying to do math on my phone quickly.

[Whatever]

(12-05-2019, 11:55 PM)Au165 Wrote: 69 on 258 drop backs or 26.7% of the time. When you actually adjust for the amount of attempts the QB is hit on rather than a single number that disregards the fact many people with more hits passed way more then you see we are top 7.

Also it’s important to note sacks aren’t hits. Along with the hits we are sacked at a rate that puts us at 27th in the league (27th is really bad).

Edit: had to adjust the number of teams trying to do math on my phone quickly.

The Bengals have the 4th most passing attempts in the league with 462.  They have 258 rushing attempts, not pass attempts.  They actually have a disproportionately low number of hits hits allowed for the amount of pass attempts.  

A "QB Killer" OL is one like Tennessee's.  They have allowed 49 sacks and 79 QB Hits on just 336 pass attempts.  The Bengals have 61 hits and 41 sacks on 462 attempts by comparison.  

[Au165]

(12-06-2019, 01:40 AM)Whatever Wrote: The Bengals have the 4th most passing attempts in the league with 462.  They have 258 rushing attempts, not pass attempts.  They actually have a disproportionately low number of hits hits allowed for the amount of pass attempts.  

A "QB Killer" OL is one like Tennessee's.  They have allowed 49 sacks and 79 QB Hits on just 336 pass attempts.  The Bengals have 61 hits and 41 sacks on 462 attempts by comparison.  

You are correct on attempts on the phone I saw the rushing attempts not the passing attempts.

In terms of rounding out how bad our line is though the adjust sacks rate of 10.4% puts us at 31st in the league in terms of offensive line rankings. Our QB is still getting sacked, but you are correct not necessarily hit although FBO doesn't do QB hit adjustment, at a rate far above league average. An average rate for adjusted sack rate should be 6% and as I said we are 10.4%. The reason adjusting for sacks matters is it takes into account down and distance as well as opponents. Basically we get sacks far more than other teams even in good situations and against bad teams.

As for the guy who didn't want to hear the excuse "Andy Dalton's quick release" that matters...a lot. Dalton's average release is a whole tenth of a second faster then anyone else in the NFL and almost a quarter second faster then the 10th quickest release. You can be assured QB's that hang on to the ball longer will get at a much higher rate behind this line. To help put this in perspective there have only been 17 sacks in the NFL year that have occurred faster than Andy Dalton's release time, meaning there were only 17 instances a rusher got to the QB faster than Andy Dalton got the ball out on average. That is 17 out of 1005 total sacks in the NFL this season.

In comparison you mention the Titan's and how often they get hit, that would be because Ryan Tannehill's time to throw is 2.81 seconds and Marcus Mariota's was 2.84, both almost .4 seconds longer than Andy Dalton's 2.43. Release time does have an interesting correlation to sacks allowed. Of the top 10 release times only Fitzpatrick (bad O line) and Murray (Also bad O line) get sacked at a higher rate than Dalton.As you scroll down the list you start seeing a pretty strong link between good O lines, longer release times, and fewer sacks. Basically, even with Dalton getting the ball out faster than anyone else in the NFL he gets sacked at a pretty abysmal rate.

The point still stands our QB is going to be under duress often, and add in a rookie who likes to stand in the pocket until the last second like Burrow and he is going to take a lot of shots. I'm not saying it's the end all of drafting or not drafting a QB, but to say the narrative isn't true is debatable. The nice thing about stats is they are in the eye of the beholder but records aren't.