Thoughts on Joe Burrow

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(12-10-2019, 09:47 AM)Au165 Wrote: Three reason's why he could succeed...

• Ability to move in the pocked to buy time while directing traffic. A somewhat new "requirement" in the NFL has become the ability to run inside the pocket due to the lack of talent coming into the league at O line. Burrow does this as well as anyone, and I'll go ahead and say it, if he was African American people would be calling him Russell Wilson like in his ability to make stuff happen with the pocket breaking down.
• Intermediate passing accuracy/touch. The NFL isn't driven by the deep ball, and the short ball is something you either have or you don't, but  intermediate throwing is what separates good from great players. Those routes that fall between 11-20 yards are some of the hardest to complete but some of the most crucial throws a QB will make. Burrow's accuracy on these passes are one of his best traits and his ability to put enough touch on them to protect the ball from oncoming defenders is something that you'll here me say often reminds me of Tom Brady.
• He is running a scheme made for today's NFL. Joe Brady has brought along an offense reminiscent of what Sean Peyton is running down in New Orleans and Joe Burrow is running it to perfection. Every week Brady prepares him like a pro player giving him a book of coverages and notes to study and then he quizzes him on what their next opponent will be looking to doing various situations. Many guys come out of college with talent and their biggest flaw is adjusting to preparing for Sundays, that will not be an issue for Joe Burrow.
  

Three reason's why he could fail...

• Supporting cast is carrying him? While it is no lie Burrow has been amazing this year it's worth pointing out that he has two 1st round wr's he is throwing to and potentially a day 2 HB in the backfield with him. While the offensive line lacks draftable talent the weapons department has no shortage of talent. 
• Bad base = Under thrown deep ball? As you watch film there are enough under thrown deep balls to make you wonder what is going on there. It seems most of these come after he scrambles and doesn't get his base set back underneath him instead attempting to muscle it down field. These often result in his WR's adjusting and making spectacular catches (see point 1), but there should be a slight concern about this moving forward as many of these end up the other way in the NFL.
• Cocky vs Confident? This is something I keep telling people to watch for as we have seen some "ego" guys in recent years and there is a belief that what used to be a desired confidence people wanted in their QB's is turning into a cockiness or arrogance in some. Burrow has had a couple incidents this year that didn't come across great to people I know. I was told by one scout that the tape is great, and people who talk football with him will love his X's and O's knowledge, the issue will be that when he is challenged about those X's and O's he can come across as a know it all. Some will chalk it up to youth others (potentially old school guys) will call it tough to coach but it's something to watch.
  

I posed the reasons why as questions because the difficulty here is I don't think he does fail so I am more so looking at notes I have and trying to come up with some potential issues not ones that are necessarily a real worry to me. The deep ball issue I think will creep up occasionally in the NFL, but that's a mechanics issue and that still will break down as a vet as we see guys do it every weekend.

Thank you.

On the supporting cast - he'd be throwing to two top 10 receivers and have a day 2 HB at Cincy (the defenses he'd be up against will be similarly stacked though) assuming AJ stays!

[Au165]

(12-10-2019, 11:19 AM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: Thank you.

On the supporting cast - he'd be throwing to two top 10 receivers and have a day 2 HB at Cincy (the defenses he'd be up against will be similarly stacked though) assuming AJ stays!

Ehh, that's debatable but even still it's not the same. The difference in elite players in college and average starters is MASSIVE compared to the NFL. Elite guys in college are 1st round draft picks in the NFL, average starters are selling insurance. 

[Hammerstripes]

Here are few reasons why he could succeed:

1. He's a film junkie and a tireless competitor. I get that most NFL guys are the same, but his coaches credit a lot of his high completion % to his pre-snap reads which is a direct result of his film study.

2. He has performed his best against the best defenses that he has faced and in the biggest games of the year.

3. I'm not overly concerned about the 1-year wonder stuff. He's been in college for 5 years and he started to play much better toward the end of last year. He also benefited from a new pro-style system that should translate his current year success to the NFL.

4. He can beat you with his arm and his legs. He's not going to run the option, but anyone that has watched him play this year knows that he navigates the pocket extremely well and will exhaust his options before running. He also makes great use of his RB, which could turn Mixon into a real force in the passing game.

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(12-10-2019, 01:11 PM)Au165 Wrote: Ehh, that's debatable but even still it's not the same. The difference in elite players in college and average starters is MASSIVE compared to the NFL. Elite guys in college are 1st round draft picks in the NFL, average starters are selling insurance. 

My point, and it wasn't a big one, was just that the difference won't be the support cast he'd have at the Bengals (which would be just as athletically gifted) but rather the level of competition they'll be up against - opponents as good if not better than them rather than constant mismatches.

(12-10-2019, 01:32 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Here are few reasons why he could succeed:

1. He's a film junkie and a tireless competitor. I get that most NFL guys are the same, but his coaches credit a lot of his high completion % to his pre-snap reads which is a direct result of his film study.

2. He has performed his best against the best defenses that he has faced and in the biggest games of the year.

3. I'm not overly concerned about the 1-year wonder stuff. He's been in college for 5 years and he started to play much better toward the end of last year. He also benefited from a new pro-style system that should translate his current year success to the NFL.

4. He can beat you with his arm and his legs. He's not going to run the option, but anyone that has watched him play this year knows that he navigates the pocket extremely well and will exhaust his options before running. He also makes great use of his RB, which could turn Mixon into a real force in the passing game.

And why he might fail?

[seahawkscheat]

(12-10-2019, 02:55 PM)TJHoushmandzadehs Shiny Shoes Wrote: My point, and it wasn't a big one, was just that the difference won't be the support cast he'd have at the Bengals (which would be just as athletically gifted) but rather the level of competition they'll be up against - opponents as good if not better than them rather than constant mismatches.


And why he might fail?

He’s from LSU who is the last qb to hit it big in the nfl

[Au165]

(12-10-2019, 03:05 PM)seahawkscheat Wrote: He’s from LSU who is the last qb to hit it big in the nfl

Patrick Mahomes Texas Tech
Drew Brees Purdue
Big Ben Miami (Ohio)
Phillip Rivers NC State
Russell Wilson Wisconsin
Lamar Jackson Louisville
Desean Watson Clemson

Okay now do me a favor, go find the next best QB's from those schools to "hit it big".

[Hammerstripes]

(12-10-2019, 02:55 PM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: My point, and it wasn't a big one, was just that the difference won't be the support cast he'd have at the Bengals (which would be just as athletically gifted) but rather the level of competition they'll be up against - opponents as good if not better than them rather than constant mismatches.


And why he might fail?

I can't really answer that.  How many of the top guys drafted each year end up being busts or underachieving draft picks.  There have been amazing athletes and guys with "high floors" that still don't pan out.

[Whatever]

(12-10-2019, 03:22 PM)Au165 Wrote: Patrick Mahomes Texas Tech
Drew Brees Purdue
Big Ben Miami (Ohio)
Phillip Rivers NC State
Russell Wilson Wisconsin
Lamar Jackson Louisville
Desean Watson Clemson

Okay now do me a favor, go find the next best QB's from those schools to "hit it big".

Texas Texh-Kliff Kingsbury
Purdue-Kyle Orton (also Bob Griese)
Miami-Zach Dysert
NC State-Mike Glennon
Wisconsin-Scott Tolzien
Louisville-Teddy Bridgewater
Clemson-Charlie Whitehurst(aka Clipboard Jesus)

Yeah, slim pickings.

[Au165]

(12-10-2019, 03:56 PM)Whatever Wrote: Texas Texh-Kliff Kingsbury
Purdue-Kyle Orton (also Bob Griese)
Miami-Zach Dysert
NC State-Mike Glennon
Wisconsin-Scott Tolzien
Louisville-Teddy Bridgewater
Clemson-Charlie Whitehurst(aka Clipboard Jesus)

Yeah, slim pickings.

Right, most of the elite Qb's haven't come out of QB producing powerhouses. In fact a lot of the QB producing powerhouses tend to be more in name then in production. Remember when every QB from USC was a 1st round pick and they kept busting out?

[*Synric*]

Great PFF Article on Joe Burrow, Joe Brady, and the LSU offense.

https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-how-joe-burrow-and-the-lsu-offense-went-from-unknown-to-unstoppable

Here is an excerpt about Burrow.

Quote:Burrow is PFF’s highest-graded quarterback this season, with a 94.3 overall grade. He's produced the most big-time throws (32) while limiting mistakes with just nine turnover-worthy plays. So, what changed for Burrow besides the scheme he’s playing in?

The most significant improvement of Burrow’s lies within his decision-making and patience in the pocket. Last year, Burrow performed below expectations when throwing to his first read. On those passes, he ranked 42nd among qualifying FBS quarterbacks in PFF passing grade, and he had the sixth-most turnover-worthy plays, with 19. There were several instances of him staring down his receiver right after the snap and trying to force a throw that wasn’t there.

But in 2019, it took a turn for the better. So far, he's earned a 93.2 passing grade throwing to his first read— he ranks second in the nation behind Fields at 93.3—and he has limited the mistakes to just six turnover-worthy plays.

Burrow has been patient with the play in 2019 — he knows when to abandon his first read when it’s not there. When throwing to his next read, Burrow is PFF’s highest-graded quarterback; he owns the highest passer rating (142.5), averages the most yards per attempt (11.0) and has an accurate-pass rate that’s 14% higher than the next closest quarterback.

Along with that, you can see Burrow’s poise on long-developing plays in his time-to-throw splits. When his average time to throw eclipses 3.1 seconds, Burrow is far and away the highest-graded quarterback (93.8), and that’d be the second-highest in the PFF College era behind only Baker Mayfield in 2016. Along with his near-record-breaking grade, his 14.2 yards per attempt on those plays is a yard more than any other quarterback in 2019.

Right now, one of the more sought-after traits for a quarterback is the ability to create outside of the structure. Burrow is one of few collegiate quarterbacks to pass that with flying colors. When Burrow has been forced outside of the pocket (non-designed rollouts and scrambles), he is, once again, the nation's highest-graded quarterback and has an accurate-pass rate 13% higher than second place.

If all that advanced data (that is found nowhere else in the world) didn’t convince you that Burrow is the best college quarterback in 2019 then maybe this will put it into perspective: Not only is he the highest-graded quarterback under pressure, but his grade under pressure is better than the clean-pocket grade of 84 FBS quarterbacks. Calling it insane is an understatement. He has thrown just one interception under pressure while throwing 15 touchdowns. Whether he is in a clean pocket or under duress, Burrow can quite literally do it all.

And to say he is getting bailed out by open receivers is just flat out incorrect, as well. His supporting cast and system have been great—there’s no argument there—but his numbers when throwing to a tight window only validates his stunning play this season, as Burrow is PFF’s highest-graded quarterback on those throws. He has 20 touchdowns (seven more than anyone else) and a passer rating of 116.1 (second is at 95.9). His adjusted completion percentage leads the country and his accurate-pass rate is 8% higher than second place.

[Au165]

(12-11-2019, 09:53 AM)Synric Wrote: Great PFF Article on Joe Burrow, Joe Brady, and the LSU offense.

https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-how-joe-burrow-and-the-lsu-offense-went-from-unknown-to-unstoppable

Here is an excerpt about Burrow.

I will say their note on the tight windows is a little misleading. His receivers are winning contested balls at a rate higher than I'd expect most receivers to win at. I don't disagree with the overarching message but sometimes context of these stats can be misleading. 

I'd love to see Herbert and Hurts QB rating on their second reads if anyone can find that. 

[Fan_in_Kettering]

Honestly, Joe Burrow deserves better than becoming a Bengal. I hope he goes somewhere where he can be immediately competitive for a championship.

[*Synric*]

(12-11-2019, 04:14 PM)Au165 Wrote: I will say their note on the tight windows is a little misleading. His receivers are winning contested balls at a rate higher than I'd expect most receivers to win at. I don't disagree with the overarching message but sometimes context of these stats can be misleading. 

I'd love to see Herbert and Hurts QB rating on their second reads if anyone can find that. 

In my mock I have Isaiah Hogdins and Marquez Callaway because both of them have a huge catch radius and will climb the ladder to high point balls. I feel they fit Joe Burrow's play style more so than a guy like John Ross.

[J24]

(12-10-2019, 03:22 PM)Au165 Wrote: Patrick Mahomes Texas Tech
Drew Brees Purdue
Big Ben Miami (Ohio)
Phillip Rivers NC State
Russell Wilson Wisconsin
Lamar Jackson Louisville
Desean Watson Clemson

Okay now do me a favor, go find the next best QB's from those schools to "hit it big".

Does Wilson count as NC State as well as Wisconsin?
Bridgewater at Louisville and Lawrence at Clemson.
I agree though it doesn't matter at all; you have to judge players on their own merits and nothing else.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-11-2019, 05:23 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: Honestly, Joe Burrow deserves better than becoming a Bengal. I hope he goes somewhere where he can be immediately competitive for a championship.

No team picking that high is going to be immediately ready to compete for SB. The top picks understand perfectly well they’re going to bad teams.

[Au165]

(12-11-2019, 06:06 PM)J24 Wrote: Does Wilson count as NC State as well as Wisconsin?
Bridgewater at Louisville and Lawrence at Clemson.
I agree though it doesn't matter at all; you have to judge players on their own merits and nothing else.

No, he was unseated by Mike Glennon there so I'd assign him to Wisconsin
Bridgewater has been an average QB similar to a Matt Flynn out of LSU so not sure it meets OP requirements
Lawrence hasn't taken a snap in the NFL so can't give him credit for anything.

[*Synric*]

PFF is doing alot of articles on Joe Burrow lol. This is them comparing Burrow, Fields (and I suppose Lawrence even though he doesnt make an apparence until the conclusion) to the other past high grades QBs.

I'll quote the conclusion.

https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-joe-burrow-best-college-qb-of-the-pff-era

Quote:CONCLUSION
As for who the best college quarterback we have seen in the PFF era overall actually is, it’s a very tight race as of now. Through their respective conference championship games, the three highest-graded quarterbacks we have ever seen are Baker Mayfield in 2017 at 95.2, Kyler Murray in 2018 at 94.7, and Joe Burrow in 2019 at 94.3.



However, we must consider strength of conference and recognize that Burrow is producing at a level we have never seen by an SEC quarterback. In regard to PFF WAR, Burrow is far and away the most valuable player in college football, with Fields, Hurts, and Trevor Lawrence right behind him. He has been the best PFF has ever seen in numerous categories shown above, and when he wasn’t, he was getting edged out by past No. 1 overall picks. If Burrow performs at the same level he’s been playing this season in the College Football Playoff, he may very well dethrone Mayfield and Murray and end up the best college quarterback in the PFF era.

[Interceptor]

I would wait for a shot at Trevor Lawrence.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-14-2019, 06:24 PM)Interceptor Wrote: I would wait for a shot at Trevor Lawrence.

Terrible idea. There’s no guarantee we’ll be in a position to get him next year. We are in a position for an elite QB this year however.

[*Synric*]

(12-14-2019, 06:24 PM)Interceptor Wrote: I would wait for a shot at Trevor Lawrence.

At 1-12 the Bengals barely have control of the #10A right now with 3 games to go...