Galvis locked in at SS

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-16-2020, 01:17 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Agree

When you have a guy at 1B, a power position, that's averaging like 55 RBI's and 13 HR's over the last two seasons you have to make up for it somewhere. Those are like average SS, CF type numbers. Votto may improve some but I seriously doubt he's gonna even sniff 30 HR 100 RBI range.

I so hope they drop him down to 6 or 7 in the lineup if he starts out, again, with 2 RBI's batting .147 in April.

I think MVP candidate Votto is long gone, but I think/hope he'll rebound back to 2018 level where he hit .284/.417/.419. Combine that with an okay glove at 1B and there's value in that. Not the Votto of old, but the old Votto.

Granted, that's also a hope and hope shouldn't factor into the thinking of a team hoping to be a legit contender. He did have an .810 OPS in Aug and a .819 in Sept after he went back to a more traditional batting stance/approach, so there's still a competent hitter in there. I just think you need to build a team where they can compete regardless, and if Votto does happen to go back to being 26% above average offensively like in 2018, that should just be icing on the contending cake.

Don't forget RBI are a factor of the players in front of them as much if not more than the player who gets them. Votto only had 67 RBI in 2018, but he hit .339 with runners in scoring position. You can't get a lot of RBI if there aren't a lot of people on base ahead of you. That's just a fact.

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-16-2020, 01:29 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I think MVP candidate Votto is long gone, but I think/hope he'll rebound back to 2018 level where he hit .284/.417/.419. Combine that with an okay glove at 1B and there's value in that. Not the Votto of old, but the old Votto.

Granted, that's also a hope and hope shouldn't factor into the thinking of a team hoping to be a legit contender. He did have an .810 OPS in Aug and a .819 in Sept after he went back to a more traditional batting stance/approach, so there's still a competent hitter in there. I just think you need to build a team where they can compete regardless, and if Votto does happen to go back to being 26% above average offensively like in 2018, that should just be icing on the contending cake.

Don't forget RBI are a factor of the players in front of them as much if not more than the player who gets them. Votto only had 67 RBI in 2018, but he hit .339 with runners in scoring position. You can't get a lot of RBI if there aren't a lot of people on base ahead of you. That's just a fact.

I sure hope you're right !

Myself and probably pretty much everybody would be happy if Votto would come in with 23 HR's and 87 RBI's, decent production, we understand he's not 28 years old anymore. 

Where he gets under fans skins (mine included) is when he comes to the plate in the bottom of the 8th down two runs, with runners on 2nd and 3rd and two outs and strikes out on 4 pitches never taking the bat off his shoulder ! Or drawing a walk with 1 swing ! Then the next guy hits it back to the pitcher.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-16-2020, 01:45 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I sure hope you're right !

Myself and probably pretty much everybody would be happy if Votto would come in with 23 HR's and 87 RBI's, decent production, we understand he's not 28 years old anymore. 

Where he gets under fans skins (mine included) is when he comes to the plate in the bottom of the 8th down two runs, with runners on 2nd and 3rd and two outs and strikes out on 4 pitches never taking the bat off his shoulder ! Or drawing a walk with 1 swing ! Then the next guy hits it back to the pitcher.

Swinging at balls is simply bad baseball. If the guy doesn't throw strikes, then you shouldn't swing. The goal on offense is to not make outs. Joey Votto would have done his job in that case and it's the next guy who sucked and needs to change.

Joey Votto is a career .330 hitter with RISP and .275 hitter with 2 out RISP.
Tony Perez was a career .284 hitter with RISP and .258 hitter with 2 out RISP.

The difference is Tony Perez had Joe Morgan and Pete Rose hitting in front of him and Johnny Bench hitting behind him, and Joey Votto had Billy Hamilton/Drew Stubbs/Zack Cozart/etc hitting in front of him, and Jay Bruce/Brandon Phillips behind him... so Perez got the RBIs and is widely considered a "clutch" hitter. 

RBIs are a team stat. If you don't have runners on base, you can't drive them in, and if you don't have someone who's at least slightly scary to pitchers, they'll pitch around you. Perez only had 2 years of 15+ IBB, Votto has had 6. People were much more willing to pitch around Votto and go after Bruce or Phillips than they were willing to pitch around Perez and go after Bench.

[Circleville Guy]

(01-16-2020, 02:26 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Swinging at balls is simply bad baseball. If the guy doesn't throw strikes, then you shouldn't swing. The goal on offense is to not make outs. Joey Votto would have done his job in that case and it's the next guy who sucked and needs to change.

Joey Votto is a career .330 hitter with RISP and .275 hitter with 2 out RISP.
Tony Perez was a career .284 hitter with RISP and .258 hitter with 2 out RISP.

The difference is Tony Perez had Joe Morgan and Pete Rose hitting in front of him and Johnny Bench hitting behind him, and Joey Votto had Billy Hamilton/Drew Stubbs/Zack Cozart/etc hitting in front of him, and Jay Bruce/Brandon Phillips behind him... so Perez got the RBIs and is widely considered a "clutch" hitter. 

RBIs are a team stat. If you don't have runners on base, you can't drive them in, and if you don't have someone who's at least slightly scary to pitchers, they'll pitch around you. Perez only had 2 years of 15+ IBB, Votto has had 6. People were much more willing to pitch around Votto and go after Bruce or Phillips than they were willing to pitch around Perez and go after Bench.

Thanks for posting these stats. Votto has been a .307 career hitter, while Pérez finished his career at .279. I’m guessing that Pérez gained that reputation between 69-77 years and during the playoffs. There is an obvious pressure not to want to make that last out too. Pérez hit .021 less with 2 outs and runners in scoring position while Votto hit .032 worse than his career average. Votto is more noticeable because of the ridiculous contract and not having a surrounding cast to take up the slack like Tony did. I look for Votto to have a better season than last year. If he gets worse then he should be a platoon player the following year.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-16-2020, 03:53 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: Thanks for posting these stats. Votto has been a .307 career hitter, while Pérez finished his career at .279. I’m guessing that Pérez gained that reputation between 69-77 years and during the playoffs. There is an obvious pressure not to want to make that last out too. Pérez hit .021 less with 2 outs and runners in scoring position while Votto hit .032 worse than his career average. Votto is more noticeable because of the ridiculous contract and not having a surrounding cast to take up the slack like Tony did. I look for Votto to have a better season than last year. If he gets worse then he should be a platoon player the following year.

Just always find it silly to post RBIs as a reason for a player being good or bad, so I have to throw out stats to prove that it's a silly reason.

George Foster had 149 RBI in 1977. He had a great year that year, but you simply can't get 149 on your own if nobody else is getting on. 

5 highest non-Foster Reds OBP in 1977....
Morgan: .417 OBP
Griffey: .389 OBP
Rose: .377 OBP
Driessen: .375 OBP
Bench: .348 OBP

Now look at Votto's 2010 season when he had his career high of 113 RBI....
Hernandez: .364
Rolen: .358
Bruce: .353
Phillips: .332
Stubbs: .329

Foster hit .269 with RISP and .190 with 2 outs RISP in '77.
Votto hit .369 with RISP and .327 with 2 outs RISP in '10.

Difference is Foster had 241 PA with RISP that year, and Votto only had 167, so Foster got 149 RBI and Votto got 113 despite hitting a full hundred points higher with RISP.

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-16-2020, 04:46 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Just always find it silly to post RBIs as a reason for a player being good or bad, so I have to throw out stats to prove that it's a silly reason.

George Foster had 149 RBI in 1977. He had a great year that year, but you simply can't get 149 on your own if nobody else is getting on. 

5 highest non-Foster Reds OBP in 1977....
Morgan: .417 OBP
Griffey: .389 OBP
Rose: .377 OBP
Driessen: .375 OBP
Bench: .348 OBP

Now look at Votto's 2010 season when he had his career high of 113 RBI....
Hernandez: .364
Rolen: .358
Bruce: .353
Phillips: .332
Stubbs: .329

Foster hit .269 with RISP and .190 with 2 outs RISP in '77.
Votto hit .369 with RISP and .327 with 2 outs RISP in '10.

Difference is Foster had 241 PA with RISP that year, and Votto only had 167, so Foster got 149 RBI and Votto got 113 despite hitting a full hundred points higher with RISP.

I stand corrected. I haven't watched Votto walk back to the dugout dozens and dozens of times with runners on base. 

[Circleville Guy]

(01-16-2020, 04:46 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Just always find it silly to post RBIs as a reason for a player being good or bad, so I have to throw out stats to prove that it's a silly reason.

George Foster had 149 RBI in 1977. He had a great year that year, but you simply can't get 149 on your own if nobody else is getting on. 

5 highest non-Foster Reds OBP in 1977....
Morgan: .417 OBP
Griffey: .389 OBP
Rose: .377 OBP
Driessen: .375 OBP
Bench: .348 OBP

Now look at Votto's 2010 season when he had his career high of 113 RBI....
Hernandez: .364
Rolen: .358
Bruce: .353
Phillips: .332
Stubbs: .329

Foster hit .269 with RISP and .190 with 2 outs RISP in '77.
Votto hit .369 with RISP and .327 with 2 outs RISP in '10.

Difference is Foster had 241 PA with RISP that year, and Votto only had 167, so Foster got 149 RBI and Votto got 113 despite hitting a full hundred points higher with RISP.

RBI aren’t only about hitting with runners in scoring position. It’s also about driving the ball. Homeruns and doubles with a guy on first are a big reason that sluggers get paid. Votto is more of an OBP guy than a slugger. He got paid a contract that a 30HR 100RBI .300 AVG guy would get. He had 15HR 47RBI and .261 AVG and takes up 20% of the payroll. If he had 30 more runners in scoring position, he may have had 10 more RBI. He really needs to drive the ball more. A high OBP is not a bad thing but it’s more valuable for a speedster than for a slow and bad base runner.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Sorry, I know this is a touchy subject, but I think Votto sucks.

Below average fielder on his best day. Lots of mental errors that don't make the scoreboard as an error.

Slow and runs the bases like he's just now learning the game of baseball, not like a guy that's been on base all of the time for the last 15 years.

He's a mental case with absolutely zero killer attitude at the plate. He literally practices a check swing several times every at bat.

He's been babied for way too long and is a major reason why the Reds have sucked for the last five seasons. Bump him to 6th or 7th in the lineup and give his anointed spot in the lineup to someone that actually wants to hit.

I cannot wait until the Albatross calls it a day because no one will trade for him with that ridiculous contract.

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-16-2020, 08:33 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Sorry, I know this is a touchy subject, but I think Votto sucks.

Below average fielder on his best day. Lots of mental errors that don't make the scoreboard as an error.

Slow and runs the bases like he's just now learning the game of baseball, not like a guy that's been on base all of the time for the last 15 years.

He's a mental case with absolutely zero killer attitude at the plate. He literally practices a check swing several times every at bat.

He's been babied for way too long and is a major reason why the Reds have sucked for the last five seasons. Bump him to 6th or 7th in the lineup and give his anointed spot in the lineup to someone that actually wants to hit.

I cannot wait until the Albatross calls it a day because no one will trade for him with that ridiculous contract.

Yup, there's been many, many. times especially over last couple seasons when he goes to the plate and we need a hit bad ! And he's way more interested in getting on base than driving the ball with power.

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-16-2020, 06:41 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: RBI aren’t only about hitting with runners in scoring position. It’s also about driving the ball. Homeruns and doubles with a guy on first are a big reason that sluggers get paid. Votto is more of an OBP guy than a slugger. He got paid a contract that a 30HR 100RBI .300 AVG guy would get. He had 15HR 47RBI and .261 AVG and takes up 20% of the payroll. If he had 30 more runners in scoring position, he may have had 10 more RBI. He really needs to drive the ball more. A high OBP is not a bad thing but it’s more valuable for a speedster than for a slow and bad base runner.

Yup, sacrifice flys 

MLB teams aren't paying guys like Rendon, Abreu, Alonso, Bellinger, Harper, Bregman, Trout and so on mega salaries for nothing. If anybody could do it, if they just had guys on base. That's silly

[Circleville Guy]

(01-16-2020, 08:33 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Sorry, I know this is a touchy subject, but I think Votto sucks.

Below average fielder on his best day. Lots of mental errors that don't make the scoreboard as an error.

Slow and runs the bases like he's just now learning the game of baseball, not like a guy that's been on base all of the time for the last 15 years.

He's a mental case with absolutely zero killer attitude at the plate. He literally practices a check swing several times every at bat.

He's been babied for way too long and is a major reason why the Reds have sucked for the last five seasons. Bump him to 6th or 7th in the lineup and give his anointed spot in the lineup to someone that actually wants to hit.

I cannot wait until the Albatross calls it a day because no one will trade for him with that ridiculous contract.

I won’t go as far as saying he sucks, he could actually have a rebound season. You do have several good points though. He is slow, not a good defender, not good fundamentally, is pampered to the detriment of the team and is way too expensive. It will be interesting to see what the organization does if he continues to decline.

[Circleville Guy]

(01-16-2020, 10:57 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yup, sacrifice flys 

MLB teams aren't paying guys like Rendon, Abreu, Alonso, Bellinger, Harper, Bregman, Trout and so on mega salaries for nothing. If anybody could do it, if they just had guys on base. That's silly

It was just insanely ignorant to lock Votto up long term coming off of an MVP season while he was still under control for a couple of more years. He was never gonna have more value then he did that year.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-16-2020, 05:39 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I stand corrected. I haven't watched Votto walk back to the dugout dozens and dozens of times with runners on base. 

Of course you have seen that. Baseball is a sport where literally nobody has managed to get a hit 3.7 times out of every 10 at bats over a career. If you succeed 1 time out of 3, you're an instant Hall of Famer.

Ty Cobb has the best career BA in history at .3662, which means he failed to get a hit 63.38% of the time... and the second highest is darn pretty far behind at .3585

(01-16-2020, 06:41 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: RBI aren’t only about hitting with runners in scoring position. It’s also about driving the ball. Homeruns and doubles with a guy on first are a big reason that sluggers get paid. Votto is more of an OBP guy than a slugger. He got paid a contract that a 30HR 100RBI .300 AVG guy would get. He had 15HR 47RBI and .261 AVG and takes up 20% of the payroll. If he had 30 more runners in scoring position, he may have had 10 more RBI. He really needs to drive the ball more. A high OBP is not a bad thing but it’s more valuable for a speedster than for a slow and bad base runner.

I literally have been making posts for awhile now clearly showing that a player doesn't have sole control over if they are a "100 RBI guy". Yet here you are again with 100 RBI guy stuff regardless.

Barry Bonds in 2003 hit .341, had 45 HR, and only had 90 RBI. 
Brandon Phillips in 2013 hit .261, had 18 HR, and got 103 RBI.

Phillips simply had the #1 and #2 guys in OBP batting ahead of him (Votto and Choo), so he constantly had runners on. 

When Votto signed his contract, he was coming off a 29 HR season. The previous three years he hit 37, 25, and 24 HR. He was clearly a 25-30 HR guy more so than a 30+ HR guy.

- - - - - - - -

At the end of the day, wRC+, which factors in all offensive stats (including baserunning) and adjusts them for the parks they were done in (so no GABP boost) says that among all players with at least 1000 PA between 2012 (when Votto signed his extension) and 2019, Votto has been the 3rd best offensive player in all of baseball. 

1. Mike Trout at 75% above league average
2. Aaron Judge at 52% above league average
3. Joey Votto at 50% above league average

And Judge is only #2 because of the low threshold of PA, with only 1700 while Votto has 4800-ish and Trout has a little over 5100 in that same timespan.

They gave that contract to an elite offensive player, and Votto has simply been that.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-16-2020, 08:33 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Sorry, I know this is a touchy subject, but I think Votto sucks.

Below average fielder on his best day. Lots of mental errors that don't make the scoreboard as an error.

Slow and runs the bases like he's just now learning the game of baseball, not like a guy that's been on base all of the time for the last 15 years.

He's a mental case with absolutely zero killer attitude at the plate. He literally practices a check swing several times every at bat.

He's been babied for way too long and is a major reason why the Reds have sucked for the last five seasons. Bump him to 6th or 7th in the lineup and give his anointed spot in the lineup to someone that actually wants to hit.

I cannot wait until the Albatross calls it a day because no one will trade for him with that ridiculous contract.

Show me on the doll where the mean Joey Votto hurt you, Vinyl.

You should be a bundle of fun to be around some years down the road when Votto goes into the HoF.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

I'll be thrilled . . . because that means that he's been off of this team for at least 5 years. I said it was a touchy subject. In a city where Mike Brown runs one major league team and the other major league team has sucked for 6 years, most people in that area look for something good to cling to and I just shit all over it. Sorry.

I've never felt that he was "the man". Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier and Brandon Phillips all had that "climb on my back" vibe WAY more than Votto, he just outlasted them and when he did become the leader by default, the team went to shit because he was pretty much all that was left. If he didn't have the big contract that he does, it wouldn't be so much of a stink but he put up some seriously crappy numbers from 1st base compared to what's out there making far less in MLB.

The last two years . . . this has become Suarez' team and I don't see that changing any time soon unless Aquino or some other youngster blows up.

[grampahol]

Votto's best years are behind him, but that doesn't mean he's the worse player of his age to ever wear cleats. he's probably the highest paid player of his age to wear them though.
Regardless, there's literally no way to say exactly what kind of season Votto is going to have this year. I'm hopeful he has a great season and will continue to hope. If not then oh well..boohoo! Our former star isn't what he used to be, but it's still no reason to trash the guy. 

[Circleville Guy]

(01-18-2020, 11:01 AM)grampahol Wrote: Votto's best years are behind him, but that doesn't mean he's the worse player of his age to ever wear cleats. he's probably the highest paid player of his age to wear them though.
Regardless, there's literally no way to say exactly what kind of season Votto is going to have this year. I'm hopeful he has a great season and will continue to hope. If not then oh well..boohoo! Our former star isn't what he used to be, but it's still no reason to trash the guy. 

I do think that Votto will bounce back this year and have one more good year that will follow with decline. It’s more than a boohoo if he continues to decline. It becomes a 25 Mil a year anchor for 4 more years. 25 Mil a year can buy a lot of production.

[grampahol]

(01-18-2020, 08:06 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: I do think that Votto will bounce back this year and have one more good year that will follow with decline. It’s more than a boohoo if he continues to decline. It becomes a 25 Mil a year anchor for 4 more years. 25 Mil a year can buy a lot of production.

Are you personally paying him $25 million bucks a season? I'm not so it doesn't really matter to me either way. The day the Reds or bengals show up at my door with a couple of thugs wanting money to pay salaries I'll start worrying. Until then? Don't care... 

[Circleville Guy]

(01-18-2020, 10:25 PM)grampahol Wrote: Are you personally paying him $25 million bucks a season? I'm not so it doesn't really matter to me either way. The day the Reds or bengals show up at my door with a couple of thugs wanting money to pay salaries I'll start worrying. Until then? Don't care... 

I care because it’s 25 million that could be used to make the team better. If they had a limitless payroll, it wouldn’t matter and fans wouldn’t care. It’s not Votto’s fault that the Reds gave him a stupid contract and it f he could just play at his 2018 level then it won’t hurt the team.