Prediction: AJ Green Will be Back

[Wes Mantooth]

I could be wrong here (I hope I am) but I think AJ Green will come back on a multi-year deal. And I think it will be a contract in which many here will view as both risky, and as us over-paying.

Here's the why and the how I see this happening...

-If you watched AJ's interview from the other day it seemed a little "about-face" from the statements made just a weeks earlier, where a little frustration and anger seeped through. These most recent comments seemed more in-line with many made in the offseason. (Even Hoard made mention of this in a question to AJ.)

It could be my imagination, or this could all be player-speak and fluff. But in watching this and reading between the lines, I'm getting the feeling they are indeed still working on a deal. And I do believe/buy the idea that the Bengals, more often than not, like do this after the season. I think discussions already started ramping up again, and that's why AJ may have seemed a little more upbeat.

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-I think both Dalton and Glenn come off the books this season, resulting in 25+ mil in freed up cap space.

Andy wants a chance to start, as he should, and that's not happening here if Burrow is the pick. On the flip-side, I don't see Mike ponying up 18 mil for a backup even if Andy accepted the role of mentor. I think he's traded for late pick or us simply released.

If you've followed the saga that was Cordy Glenn this season then you know what a mess it was. Frankly, I'm shocked he wasn't cut mid-season. He's a high-priced cancer that's going into his final year. I just can't see any way he returns. I think he's simply released, as I can't imagine him having any trade value. (Best value for him was in-season to a desperate team with limited options.)

You may see another few cuts or trades too (Please, dump Bobby Hart's salary!!!!) Regardless, we're going to have a ton of cap space and dollars that need to be spent. Even before these freed up dollars we were projected to have a lot of room.

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-Mike will almost always spend in-house before being forced to splurge in free agency. That's how a guy like Bernard is making 5 mil per to rush for 200 yards a season. That's how Hart is making 7 mil. That's why they dumped a bunch of money, elite money, in Kirkpatrick's lap despite only having limited starting experience.

We need to spend a ton, and I think they'll look at extensions before considering free agency. A new deal for AJ and Mixon, then sprinkle in a couple other extensions, will bring them a lot closer to the floor.

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-Mike needs to sell tickets. Mike also needs a "star" wide receiver to pair with his new toy/savior Burrow.

As much as I love Boyd, he's not a #1. He's a very good #2. He's not your 6'4 blazing fast outside and deep threat. And as much as I was impressed by Tate, he's not going to move the needle in ticket sales or confindence.

I personally think the correct play is to stick with Boyd and Tate, draft a WR in the 3rd or 4th, and maybe look at a short-deal vet at 4-7 mil per to round out the corp. But again, that's not going to win over a lot of casual fans. Nor will it eat up as much cap space that needs to be spent.

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-I think AJ and his camp know everything I just said. This franchise wants and needs him. And this franchise will also pay him more and for longer than anywhere else.

It's mutually beneficial. He'll get more guarantees and security here than anywhere.

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Conclusion/Prediction....

Look for news this offseason like this: AJ Green signs for 4yrs/60 million.

I think it'll be somewhere in that neighborhood. Maybe 3 years, or maybe 5, but no tag, no trade, and no 2 year either. And I'd bet 4 or 5 years before 3. It will be longer than makes sense, extremely risky, yet somehow will make a lot of homers happy and confident.

I can hear it now...

"We got Joe Burrow, we get AJ Green back, we got Jonah Williams, we extended Mixon and we added a couple retreads or over the hill names!!! "

He's coming back, folks. 3-5 years @ no less than 12 mil and probably no more than 16. It'll happen...

[ElkValleyBengal]

I can see that, but I'd be surprised at anything over three years. Though of course they can frontload a 4 year deal to essentially make it a three year deal.

[CINwillWIN]

I agree.

Good post. (+ rep)

Green needs new blood like any of us. If he had a top-notch QB signal caller, Green could/would be the hall of fame WR I think he already is. Watching the QB(s) on this current team is just bad. Andy still throws into traffic, over throws, under throws, only has time to check two options.. not many QB(s) can deal with that kind of insanity.

IMO: (cont.)
OL needs to be signed, not drafted. Andre coming back was a bad sign on bad things for this season. This team continuously builds linemen through the draft then looses them...that trend is just horrible. Drafted linemen takes years to develop, and I just don't see any point of it. Sign proven free agents, pay them well to protect your franchise...not a hard decision or idea to comprehend.

Sorry, got off topic, sorry Toast..

IMHO (cont. part 2):
AJ needs help. He's getting older, I personally think that this next season he should be franchise tagged. This past season was a loss, and resigning him to a keeper contract based on his (Hmm...well)(even) his last two, or hell, (three) past seasons, ... (hmm). Franchise tag him. He might end up being one of those players that might retire, if the current Oline, or QB situation...or being realistic, the Coaching and front office don't make the necessary changes needed, what's the point of keeper contracts...let the man go. Why should he be tortured like the rest of us fans...

[Sled21]

I've said all along they will sign him to a multi-year deal, front loaded then heavily incentive laden on the back end. That makes it a safe bet for the team and for AJ.

[Wes Mantooth]

(01-01-2020, 03:15 PM)Sled21 Wrote: That makes it a safe bet for the team and for AJ.

There's nothing safe about inking a 32 year old player with his recent history to a multi-year deal.  Front loaded or not, those are still cap dollars that could be spent elsewhere. Those are cap dollars you could use to front load other deals, or spend for immediate needs.

If we could get him on incentive laden deal then that would make the most sense, especially one at, say, 2 years. But I don't think that has any realistic chance of happening.

Like all players and all contracts, and especially for those that are maybe a guys last multi-year deal, it's all about the guaranteed money. The signing bonus. The security.

That's what he wants, and what it will take to lock him up. If you think he's going to ink something at 5-8 million dollar base, with loads of incentives then you're kidding yourself.

An incentive laden deal is typically short. A "prove it" one year deal is similar in the fact it won't work here. If he wanted a deal like that, which I don't think he does, he wants with a contender. For two reasons: 1.) A chance at a ring. 2.) The best chance to pad his stats to increase his value and/or collect incentives. We offer neither at this point.

Maybe I'm wrong and you're right, I just don't see any way any incentives ties him here.I think he wants his last "real" deal and all the security it comes with. And if he doesn't get it here then he'll take the alternative elsewhere.

To each their own, but if you want him then it comes with a boatload of risk. His last real AJ Green type of season was 2015. FIVE years ago. Frontload his deal, and I guess some will feel safe. I sure as hell don't though.

[CornerBlitz]

I just hope they don't pay him around 20 million. Perhaps it's an incentive based contract based upon % of games played.

To be honest, I'm pretty excited bout the Bengals moving forward just so long they draft Burrow, sign a legit LB, and draft offensive line prospects that are actually good.

We have a roster that has some talent but the major holes need to be filled and an upgrade at QB can make a huge difference.

[samhain]

Unless I'm misreading the tea leaves and AJ is willing to take a multi-year deal reflective of his age and recent injury history, there's no way that a multi-year deal is a good idea at this point. In fact, it's inexcusably stupid. They have no evidence at all since a little before Halloween 2018 that Green can play through a full NFL game, much less a season, much less several seasons.

A season and a half of not playing knock down a player's value. I'm not sure if AJ is willing to acknowledge that in the negotiations. He seems to want to be payed based on his active career, but that's a good distance into the past.

If he were willing to accept maybe 12 mil per for 3 years, then that'd be fine. I doubt there's a chance that he would.

Hobspin loves to point out the Kwon Alexander deal and his injuries as a reason to excuse inactivity in free agency. Why would Green's predicament be any different? I'd argue that signing AJ would be less favorable due to age and the fact that he hasn't proven himself able to play in a long time. If you're afraid to pay big money to outside guys because they might get hurt, then you should be petrified to commit to pay AJ.

The best way forward for the team is the franchise tag. It's not ideal from a player morale perspective. It would suck to see one of the best and classiest players in Bengal history finish his time here disgruntled. However, it would suck a lot worse to guarantee a player 17 mil plus for 3 years if he's not on the field or able to play to his historical level. Give it to him for one year, if he plays half a season and looks good to go, then negotiate if you want to.

People will judge this front office harshly no matter what. I know I will. I hate their guts. They know this and do not give one shit. That said, I think that even an ownership group as arrogant and out of touch as this one has to have an understanding of how moronic they'd look giving away that kind of coin to a player that couldn't produce and gave them hints that non-production was at least a somewhat likely outcome for 2 years.

[BengalChris]

(01-01-2020, 02:46 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I can hear it now...

"We got Joe Burrow, we get AJ Green back, we got Jonah Williams, we extended Mixon and we added a couple retreads or over the hill names!!! "

And that is where it all falls down. Can't fill a starting job with an over the hill guy who can't do it anymore or released guy who has never done it and isn't likely to. The team needs to aim higher than that.

Jonah Williams is a question mark. Hasn't play a down.

 

[masonbengals fan]

Look forward to the day that Williams is on the field.

[Atomic Orange]

Burrow and a new OC may not need AJ Green. I'd rather we try that route.

[fortyyearfan]

(01-01-2020, 02:46 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I could be wrong here (I hope I am) but I think AJ Green will come back on a multi-year deal. And I think it will be a contract in which many here will view as both risky, and as us over-paying.

Here's the why and the how I see this happening...

-If you watched AJ's interview from the other day it seemed a little "about-face" from the statements made just a weeks earlier, where a little frustration and anger seeped through. These most recent comments seemed more in-line with many made in the offseason. (Even Hoard made mention of this in a question to AJ.)

It could be my imagination, or this could all be player-speak and fluff. But in watching this and reading between the lines, I'm getting the feeling they are indeed still working on a deal. And I do believe/buy the idea that the Bengals, more often than not, like do this after the season. I think discussions already started ramping up again, and that's why AJ may have seemed a little more upbeat.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-I think both Dalton and Glenn come off the books this season, resulting in 25+ mil in freed up cap space.

Andy wants a chance to start, as he should, and that's not happening here if Burrow is the pick. On the flip-side, I don't see Mike ponying up 18 mil for a backup even if Andy accepted the role of mentor. I think he's traded for late pick or us simply released.

If you've followed the saga that was Cordy Glenn this season then you know what a mess it was. Frankly, I'm shocked he wasn't cut mid-season. He's a high-priced cancer that's going into his final year. I just can't see any way he returns. I think he's simply released, as I can't imagine him having any trade value. (Best value for him was in-season to a desperate team with limited options.)

You may see another few cuts or trades too (Please, dump Bobby Hart's salary!!!!) Regardless, we're going to have a ton of cap space and dollars that need to be spent. Even before these freed up dollars we were projected to have a lot of room.

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-Mike will almost always spend in-house before being forced to splurge in free agency. That's how a guy like Bernard is making 5 mil per to rush for 200 yards a season. That's how Hart is making 7 mil. That's why they dumped a bunch of money, elite money, in Kirkpatrick's lap despite only having limited starting experience.

We need to spend a ton, and I think they'll look at extensions before considering free agency. A new deal for AJ and Mixon, then sprinkle in a couple other extensions, will bring them a lot closer to the floor.

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-Mike needs to sell tickets. Mike also needs a "star" wide receiver to pair with his new toy/savior Burrow.

As much as I love Boyd, he's not a #1. He's a very good #2. He's not your 6'4 blazing fast outside and deep threat. And as much as I was impressed by Tate, he's not going to move the needle in ticket sales or confindence.

I personally think the correct play is to stick with Boyd and Tate, draft a WR in the 3rd or 4th, and maybe look at a short-deal vet at 4-7 mil per to round out the corp. But again, that's not going to win over a lot of casual fans. Nor will it eat up as much cap space that needs to be spent.

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-I think AJ and his camp know everything I just said. This franchise wants and needs him. And this franchise will also pay him more and for longer than anywhere else.

It's mutually beneficial. He'll get more guarantees and security here than anywhere.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conclusion/Prediction....

Look for news this offseason like this: AJ Green signs for 4yrs/60 million.

I think it'll be somewhere in that neighborhood. Maybe 3 years, or maybe 5, but no tag, no trade, and no 2 year either. And I'd bet 4 or 5 years before 3. It will be longer than makes sense, extremely risky, yet somehow will make a lot of homers happy and confident.

I can hear it now...

"We got Joe Burrow, we get AJ Green back, we got Jonah Williams, we extended Mixon and we added a couple retreads or over the hill names!!! "

He's coming back, folks. 3-5 years @ no less than 12 mil and probably no more than 16. It'll happen...

A.J. will be a Bengal for rest of his career and will be our HOFer.Andy  will go somewhere to start and we will get a second round and a third for him,I am just thinking.Joe B. will be our number one pick as this is just a no-brainer.Now if he gets hurt in the championship game all bets are off but he is going to be a Bengal.My Question is who is going to train him to start or our they just going to throw the guy out there.I would Keep Dalton to work with him and allow Dalton to start and if he starts winning,we keep him as he is under contract for 2020.Just a thought.

[Luvnit2]

Another well thought out thread Wes.

I also think AJ will be back. I see the price a little lower, I see 3 years around 40 million.

Yes, we have a lot of holes and one of them was no true #1 WR in 2019 since AJ did not play one game. The question we don't know is what was the record of team where AJ played in all 16 games. WE were not only missing Green, but Ross ad Tate also missed a lot of time.

The ideal situation for Joe Burrow is to surround him with great weapons in year #1 and a healthy Green is a huge weapon. There is always risk, but AJ is a great guy so I hope we get it done and he shows us in 2020 what we missed in 2019.

[BoBengal]

Would love to see AJ back with the team for some veteran presence in the WR corp

[SunsetBengal]

(01-01-2020, 06:48 PM)Atomic Orange Wrote: Burrow and a new OC may not need AJ Green. I'd rather we try that route.

Hmm, don't be so sure of that.  No matter how high Joe's ceiling may be, it's going to be culture shock adjusting to playing in the NFL, compared to CFB.  He's going to need the benefit of veteran receivers who not only know and understand the NFL game, but have the ability to modify their own game, to aid a  rookie QB getting settled in.  

[samhain]

(01-01-2020, 07:36 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Another well thought out thread Wes.

I also think AJ will be back. I see the price a little lower, I see 3 years around 40 million.

Yes, we have a lot of holes and one of them was no true #1 WR in 2019 since AJ did not play one game. The question we don't know is what was the record of team where AJ played in all 16 games. WE were not only missing Green, but Ross ad Tate also missed a lot of time.

The ideal situation for Joe Burrow is to surround him with great weapons in year #1 and a healthy Green is a huge weapon. There is always risk, but AJ is a great guy so I hope we get it done and he shows us in 2020 what we missed in 2019.

I could probably live with 3 years 40 mil.  It's a matter of if AJ could.  I'm sure he and his agent have some rough idea what he could make on the open market.  I have no idea what that is, but I'd be a bit surprised if it were more than 13 and change annually.  

A lot of it probably comes down to whether he wants to retire a Bengal or see what it would be like to play in another city.  Maybe he wants to go to a ready-made roster and chase a title.  The Bengals are nowhere close to that, so if that's the case it's going to take an overpay to keep him here be it franchise tag or long-term agreement.  I fear that the team may be perfectly okay with overpaying him. They shouldn't be.

[samhain]

(01-01-2020, 06:48 PM)Atomic Orange Wrote: Burrow and a new OC may not need AJ Green. I'd rather we try that route.

They need at least 1 more high-caliber receiver if AJ leaves.  I suppose you could argue that this is a good draft to have the first pick in round 2 if that's what you're looking for.  

Boyd is a terrific, top-end number 2 WR.  Ross is an enigma after 3 years and cannot be depended on.  Tate is useful player, but at best a 3rd WR.  They need more than that.  They need more speed.  

[kalibengal]

(01-01-2020, 06:01 PM)masonbengals fan Wrote: Look forward to the day that Williams is on the field.

exactly...alot of posters here assume Jonah is good NFL OT
Who is to say hes not another Ogblewie, Fisher or Price? Our track record on drafting o lineman stinks and based on Taylors draft, it is questionable he knows how to evaluate talent. Rd 2- Drew Sample?? im still scratching my head on that pick.  
If Jonah W turns out to be good and Fred Johnson can continue to mold into the RT , that would open things up in the draft.  

[Atomic Orange]

(01-01-2020, 08:21 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Hmm, don't be so sure of that.  No matter how high Joe's ceiling may be, it's going to be culture shock adjusting to playing in the NFL, compared to CFB.  He's going to need the benefit of veteran receivers who not only know and understand the NFL game, but have the ability to modify their own game, to aid a  rookie QB getting settled in.  

I don't trust AJ's health for the money he's wanting. It's as simple as that.

He isn't going to do the kid (or team) any good if he is on the sideline again.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-01-2020, 11:09 PM)Atomic Orange Wrote: I don't trust AJ's health for the money he's wanting. It's as simple as that.

He isn't going to do the kid (or team) any good if he is on the sideline again.

Somebody posted Sporttrac had AJs estimated value at around $9M/per.  If you don't think that the Bengals would be doing him a huge favor, by offering him 3 years at $12/per, then I might suggest that you might be out of touch with reality.  I don't see AJ getting "top tier" money, anywhere in the FA market.  Sure, some team might offer him $15M for a one year deal, but nothing close to what Julio Jones just got signed to.  As you already mentioned, his health is a serious question mark, and will have a bigger impact on his market value than many board regulars are ready to admit.

Simply put, he's worth more to the Bengals for the things he's accomplished in his career, than he is as a "hired hand" on any other team.

[Atomic Orange]

(01-01-2020, 11:20 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Somebody posted Sporttrac had AJs estimated value at around $9M/per.  If you don't think that the Bengals would be doing him a huge favor, by offering him 3 years at $12/per, then I might suggest that you might be out of touch with reality.  I don't see AJ getting "top tier" money, anywhere in the FA market.  Sure, some team might offer him $15M for a one year deal, but nothing close to what Julio Jones just got signed to.  As you already mentioned, his health is a serious question mark, and will have a bigger impact on his market value than many board regulars are ready to admit.

Simply put, he's worth more to the Bengals for the things he's accomplished in his career, than he is as a "hired hand" on any other team.

I think AJ wants top tier money thus is the one out of touch. I could handle 3/$12m.

We'll see what happens.