A look back, CP9 draft

[*bengalfan74*]

The 2003 draft seems like forever ago, in Bengals world. And to be honest I don't remember it all that well. However....

The Mother Ship board started in like mid September 2005 IIRC ? I think I joined on like the 28th of Sept. somewhere in there ? So there wasn't any board I'm aware of then.

But at any rate I don't remember they're being much push back on drafting Palmer 1OA ? I know just about everybody I talked to wanted him. And I don't remember any ya buts being but out by the media, mock draft stuff or anything.

There's been quite a lot of ya butts on Burrow, several people on here saying he's to old been in school to long, one year wonder, product of a system/coaching, not mobile, weak arm, and on and on.

But take a look at CP9:

5 years at USC like 23 1/2 years old when drafted.

2000 - 54.9% comp.% 2914 yards passing 16 TD's 18 int's Trojans finished season 5-7

2001 - 58.6% comp.% 2717 yards passing 13 TD's 12 int's Trojans finished season 6-6 lost Las Vegas bowl to Utah

So averaging like 56% comp % 2800 yards 29 TD's 30 int's total during Sophomore and junior seasons. Pretty MEH

2002 63.3% comp. $ 3942 yards passing 33 TD's 10 int's Trojans finished 11-2 including beating Iowa in the Orange bowl.

In 2000 Paul Hackett was USC HC and Hue Jackson was OC. In 2001 Pete Carroll took over as HC and Norm Chow as OC and of course they guided Palmer thru 2002.

I wonder how many people would have torn CP9 down back then had the internet, draft sites, boards been up and going as they are today ? Product of a system, one year wonder, on and on.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-09-2020, 02:39 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: The 2003 draft seems like forever ago, in Bengals world. And to be honest I don't remember it all that well. However....

The Mother Ship board started in like mid September 2005 IIRC ? I think I joined on like the 28th of Sept. somewhere in there ? So there wasn't any board I'm aware of then.

But at any rate I don't remember they're being much push back on drafting Palmer 1OA ? I know just about everybody I talked to wanted him. And I don't remember any ya buts being but out by the media, mock draft stuff or anything.

There's been quite a lot of ya butts on Burrow, several people on here saying he's to old been in school to long, one year wonder, product of a system/coaching, not mobile, weak arm, and on and on.

But take a look at CP9:

5 years at USC like 23 1/2 years old when drafted.

2000 - 54.9% comp.% 2914 yards passing 16 TD's 18 int's Trojans finished season 5-7

2001 - 58.6% comp.% 2717 yards passing 13 TD's 12 int's Trojans finished season 6-6 lost Las Vegas bowl to Utah

So averaging like 56% comp % 2800 yards 29 TD's 30 int's total during Sophomore and junior seasons. Pretty MEH

2002 63.3% comp. $ 3942 yards passing 33 TD's 10 int's Trojans finished 11-2 including beating Iowa in the Orange bowl.

In 2000 Paul Hackett was USC HC and Hue Jackson was OC. In 2001 Pete Carroll took over as HC and Norm Chow as OC and of course they guided Palmer thru 2002.

I wonder how many people would have torn CP9 down back then had the internet, draft sites, boards been up and going as they are today ? Product of a system, one year wonder, on and on.

I hadn't looked back at Palmer to realize how similar his and Burrow's last two years were in terms of growth.
Both also have that quiet, calm demeanor.
Both could also end up wearing #9 in the NFL, as this was Burrow's number in college.

I think to your point, information was not nearly as widely accessible back then as it is now.
Social media wasn't a thing so you really weren't seeing/hearing a lot of fan opinions like you do now.

It's actually funny going back to the 2002 passing leaders.
The #1 passer in college football that year was now Arizona Cardinals HC Cliff Kingsbury with 5017 passing yards.
There were 4 passers with 4000+ yards.

Compare that to 2019 and you see...also just 4 passers with 4000+ yards. The only difference is there are two with 5000+ yards...Anthony Gordon and Joe Burrow.

In fact, Burrow's final season is more impressive than Palmer's probably was. I say probably because statistically it is better but I didn't watch Palmer back in college (I was just in high school).

Definite rep to you for showing how well Burrow compared to Palmer but 17 years later. 

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-09-2020, 03:14 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I hadn't looked back at Palmer to realize how similar his and Burrow's last two years were in terms of growth.
Both also have that quiet, calm demeanor.
Both could also end up wearing #9 in the NFL, as this was Burrow's number in college.

I think to your point, information was not nearly as widely accessible back then as it is now.
Social media wasn't a thing so you really weren't seeing/hearing a lot of fan opinions like you do now.

It's actually funny going back to the 2002 passing leaders.
The #1 passer in college football that year was now Arizona Cardinals HC Cliff Kingsbury with 5017 passing yards.
There were 4 passers with 4000+ yards.

Compare that to 2019 and you see...also just 4 passers with 4000+ yards. The only difference is there are two with 5000+ yards...Anthony Gordon and Joe Burrow.

In fact, Burrow's final season is more impressive than Palmer's probably was. I say probably because statistically it is better but I didn't watch Palmer back in college (I was just in high school).

Definite rep to you for showing how well Burrow compared to Palmer but 17 years later. 

I'd be willing to bet if you (took the time, I ain't) looked hard there's a bunch of QB's who took a leap in their last season before they were drafted. I watched Palmer play maybe twice before the draft, late in the season for a few minutes. And of course the high lights. And that's about it. Todd McShay on ESPN. 

Like you say the point I'm trying to make is there's so much more exposure now ! Websites, draft sites, analysts, social media, and just on and on.

I think it's easy to be way over analyzed. There's 1,000's of "experts" out there posting all kinds of gibberish. How many actually know what they're looking for or talking about ?

[Hammerstripes]

I was a member of another board - can't remember what the name of it was.

There was a large contingent that wanted Byron Leftwich at #1 overall

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-09-2020, 06:14 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: I was a member of another board - can't remember what the name of it was.

There was a large contingent that wanted Byron Leftwich at #1 overall

Seems like I do remember people, joe from flo ? whoever talking about another board back then. Was never on it. But I thought it started around the same time as the old mothership ? After 2003, wasn't sure.

I do remember a lot of buzz with Leftwich, cannon arm and all. 

[*ochocincos*]

(01-09-2020, 05:52 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'd be willing to bet if you (took the time, I ain't) looked hard there's a bunch of QB's who took a leap in their last season before they were drafted. I watched Palmer play maybe twice before the draft, late in the season for a few minutes. And of course the high lights. And that's about it. Todd McShay on ESPN. 

Like you say the point I'm trying to make is there's so much more exposure now ! Websites, draft sites, analysts, social media, and just on and on.

I think it's easy to be way over analyzed. There's 1,000's of "experts" out there posting all kinds of gibberish. How many actually know what they're looking for or talking about ?

That's a big reason why teams don't really care or even acknowledge what "draft experts" say. They do their own evaluations.
This is a big part due to the fact that back then, people were getting drafted without the input from these "draft experts."

[Essex Johnson]

It's called hype.. burrows is being hyped way higher than Palmer and for the value of the the pick as a #1 QB we lose out if he turns out like Palmer, we did better under 2md round Dalton than 1st pick Palmer ..

[Au165]

(01-15-2020, 08:24 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: It's called hype.. burrows is being hyped way higher than Palmer and for the value of the the pick as a #1 QB we lose out if he turns out like Palmer, we did better under 2md round Dalton than 1st pick Palmer ..

Not really, it's all relative. Carson Palmer was touted as the best QB in that draft and he had the tools to be really good. In the end he was the best QB career wise from that draft and didn't capitalize on those tools. In hindsight his accuracy wasn't great in college and it continued to not be great in the pro's especially under pressure. We needed a QB badly that year and we got the best one, it just turns out that class in hindsight wasn't very good. This year Joe Burrow is arguably the best prospect in a class that in the present appears to be a pretty good class. In terms of "Hype" it comes down to the fact he has put together arguably the greatest college football season of any QB ever. That isn't "Hype" that is statistically factual and even more apparent when looking at advanced metrics.

Saying we did better with a 2nd rounder is disingenuous, we actually did the same in the one thing we all care about, we had 0 playoff wins with both. Also the idea that because we did fine with a 2nd rounder last time so that somehow means we should do the same thing again is fooling yourself. It would be like the Patriots saying "Hey, we got Brady in the 6th we can just get another one in the 6th". History shows us that the success rate of QB's drafted in general isn't great but once you get past the 1st round that success rate falls pretty substantially. Dalton actually had one of the top 5/6 best careers in the last 15 years for of a QB drafted after the 1st round. He is an outlier, not a rule you want to try replicating. 

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-15-2020, 08:24 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: It's called hype.. burrows is being hyped way higher than Palmer and for the value of the the pick as a #1 QB we lose out if he turns out like Palmer, we did better under 2md round Dalton than 1st pick Palmer ..

Hype ?

How is the most (60) passing TD's in college football history hype ? How is the 2nd highest completion % by like a 1/4 % or whatever hype ? How is beating four top 5 teams like a drum with 16 TD's and 0 interceptions hype ? This list could go on and on.

Results are not hype.

[sandwedge]

(01-15-2020, 09:36 AM)Au165 Wrote: Not really, it's all relative. Carson Palmer was touted as the best QB in that draft and he had the tools to be really good. In the end he was the best QB career wise from that draft and didn't capitalize on those tools. In hindsight his accuracy wasn't great in college and it continued to not be great in the pro's especially under pressure. We needed a QB badly that year and we got the best one, it just turns out that class in hindsight wasn't very good. This year Joe Burrow is arguably the best prospect in a class that in the present appears to be a pretty good class. In terms of "Hype" it comes down to the fact he has put together arguably the greatest college football season of any QB ever. That isn't "Hype" that is statistically factual and even more apparent when looking at advanced metrics.

Saying we did better with a 2nd rounder is disingenuous, we actually did the same in the one thing we all care about, we had 0 playoff wins with both. Also the idea that because we did fine with a 2nd rounder last time so that somehow means we should do the same thing again is fooling yourself. It would be like the Patriots saying "Hey, we got Brady in the 6th we can just get another one in the 6th". History shows us that the success rate of QB's drafted in general isn't great but once you get past the 1st round that success rate falls pretty substantially. Dalton actually had one of the top 5/6 best careers in the last 15 years for of a QB drafted after the 1st round. He is an outlier, not a rule you want to try replicating. 

Thank you! I had been trying to get that across to people in the thread on JN, who'd you rather have CP or AD. 

[XenoMorph]

(01-09-2020, 02:39 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: The 2003 draft seems like forever ago, in Bengals world. And to be honest I don't remember it all that well. However....

The Mother Ship board started in like mid September 2005 IIRC ? I think I joined on like the 28th of Sept. somewhere in there ? So there wasn't any board I'm aware of then.

But at any rate I don't remember they're being much push back on drafting Palmer 1OA ? I know just about everybody I talked to wanted him. And I don't remember any ya buts being but out by the media, mock draft stuff or anything.

There's been quite a lot of ya butts on Burrow, several people on here saying he's to old been in school to long, one year wonder, product of a system/coaching, not mobile, weak arm, and on and on.

But take a look at CP9:

5 years at USC like 23 1/2 years old when drafted.

2000 - 54.9% comp.% 2914 yards passing 16 TD's 18 int's Trojans finished season 5-7

2001 - 58.6% comp.% 2717 yards passing 13 TD's 12 int's Trojans finished season 6-6 lost Las Vegas bowl to Utah

So averaging like 56% comp % 2800 yards 29 TD's 30 int's total during Sophomore and junior seasons. Pretty MEH

2002 63.3% comp. $ 3942 yards passing 33 TD's 10 int's Trojans finished 11-2 including beating Iowa in the Orange bowl.

In 2000 Paul Hackett was USC HC and Hue Jackson was OC. In 2001 Pete Carroll took over as HC and Norm Chow as OC and of course they guided Palmer thru 2002.

I wonder how many people would have torn CP9 down back then had the internet, draft sites, boards been up and going as they are today ? Product of a system, one year wonder, on and on.

oh i thought we were going to look over the 2003 draft for parrallels.

[Essex Johnson]

(01-15-2020, 11:58 AM)sandwedge Wrote: Thank you! I had been trying to get that across to people in the thread on JN, who'd you rather have CP or AD. 

I rather have what AD did than what CP did for the Bengals especially with  The point is CP was number 1 pick.. so you need to weigh that with the value of that pick vs what you could have acquired .... for example we passed on Locker who went #8 and took #5 Green, we needed a QB badly that year also.. but we came back with Dalton in #2 round... 

[Hammerstripes]

(01-15-2020, 08:24 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: It's called hype.. burrows is being hyped way higher than Palmer and for the value of the the pick as a #1 QB we lose out if he turns out like Palmer, we did better under 2md round Dalton than 1st pick Palmer ..

IF he turns out like Palmer and he stays healthy (unlike Palmer) then he's a top 3 QB in the NFL and I'll take that everyday of the week

[shanebo]

Things were a bit different back in '03. Pretty much everyone agreed on the QB pecking order -- Palmer, then Leftwich (close second), then Boeller/Grossman. But Palmer was considered by almost everyone to be far and away the best QB in the class, just a well-rounded prospect. No Tuas or Herberts to compete with him, really. I was an SI subscriber at the time, and they -- particularly Peter King -- were in LOVE with Palmer. Remember his cover issue that came out just before the draft? I had it framed ...

http://www.millcreeksports.com/carson-palmer-autographed-sports-illustrated-magazine-usc-trojans-no-label-psa-dna-x64832/

Tons of other SI articles singing his praises. E.g.:

https://www.si.com/vault/2002/12/09/333981/hand-him-the-heisman-with-a-stellar-showing-against-notre-dame-uscs-carson-palmer-proved-he-deserves-college-footballs-most-coveted-award

Every mock draft I remember seeing had the Bengals picking Palmer. A very few people preferred the size and arm of Leftwich early on, and the Bengals did in fact open contract discussions with him, but that turned out to be a fallback position in case Palmer played hardball with them. Palmer was pedigreed enough that no one really cried one-year wonder, but Leftwich received the small school/no competition criticism. Recall that they ended up actually signing Palmer BEFORE the draft, and so everyone knew he was going to be the first selection.

The biggest debate I recall at the time was whether to go QB or defense. Remember we had Jon Kitna, who wasn't terrible, and had just hired Marvin Lewis, a former DC. Our defense was abysmal, and some argued that we should build our defense and wait until 2004 to draft a QB, as the 2004 QB class was thought to be much stronger, with Rivers, Eli, and Big Ben. To that end, we were thought to be looking at Terrence Newman, Terrell Suggs, and Dewayne Robertson (DT out of UK), and we even had some contract discussions with Newman. (I'm ashamed to admit it, but I really wanted Robertson if Palmer didn't work out, but he turned out to be a bust ... UK homer, I guess.) In 2004, I remember Bengals brass saying that they liked Palmer better than everyone in the '04 class, even though he didn't play a snap in '03. Turns out we couldn't have gotten any of the top guys anyway.

[XenoMorph]

Well after we took palmer 1OA we took steinbach in round 2... So im predicting QB / OL again this time

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-15-2020, 12:24 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I rather have what AD did than what CP did for the Bengals especially with  The point is CP was number 1 pick.. so you need to weigh that with the value of that pick vs what you could have acquired .... for example we passed on Locker who went #8 and took #5 Green, we needed a QB badly that year also.. but we came back with Dalton in #2 round... 

Take Zimmer's defenses away and Dalton doesn't go to the playoffs those years. 

So there's that. 

[Hammerstripes]

The more important thing to look at with the Palmer draft is the picks that followed:

2. Eric Steinbach
3. Kelley Washington

This is going to be an offensive draft. I'm hoping for once that the Bengals will be semi-active in free agency to fill some obvious voids.

[Essex Johnson]

(01-15-2020, 09:36 AM)Au165 Wrote: Not really, it's all relative. Carson Palmer was touted as the best QB in that draft and he had the tools to be really good. In the end he was the best QB career wise from that draft and didn't capitalize on those tools. In hindsight his accuracy wasn't great in college and it continued to not be great in the pro's especially under pressure. We needed a QB badly that year and we got the best one, it just turns out that class in hindsight wasn't very good. This year Joe Burrow is arguably the best prospect in a class that in the present appears to be a pretty good class. In terms of "Hype" it comes down to the fact he has put together arguably the greatest college football season of any QB ever. That isn't "Hype" that is statistically factual and even more apparent when looking at advanced metrics.

Saying we did better with a 2nd rounder is disingenuous, we actually did the same in the one thing we all care about, we had 0 playoff wins with both. Also the idea that because we did fine with a 2nd rounder last time so that somehow means we should do the same thing again is fooling yourself. It would be like the Patriots saying "Hey, we got Brady in the 6th we can just get another one in the 6th". History shows us that the success rate of QB's drafted in general isn't great but once you get past the 1st round that success rate falls pretty substantially. Dalton actually had one of the top 5/6 best careers in the last 15 years for of a QB drafted after the 1st round. He is an outlier, not a rule you want to try replicating. 

You go off the rails. On my post pretty simple Dalton took us to more playoffs and winning seasons 5 out of 9 years to 2 out of 7,  clearly you can conceded Dalton value was much better as 2nd round QB to Palmer as 1st pick of draft

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-15-2020, 12:24 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I rather have what AD did than what CP did for the Bengals especially with  The point is CP was number 1 pick.. so you need to weigh that with the value of that pick vs what you could have acquired .... for example we passed on Locker who went #8 and took #5 Green, we needed a QB badly that year also.. but we came back with Dalton in #2 round... 

Actually we took AJ 4th.

[Essex Johnson]

(01-15-2020, 05:28 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Take Zimmer's defenses away and Dalton doesn't go to the playoffs those years. 

So there's 

Take Dalton leadership away same goes..there's that, we can play this game all day.. bottomline you are judged by your card and in Cincy Andy was a better QB especially for the pick level vs. Palmer...