Palmer's thoughts on Bengals pick, playing #1 overall QB's

[motoarch]

(01-09-2020, 08:09 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Disagree that Dalton is better, but I’m not getting into all of that for the millionth time.

Also, you seem to be the only one “butthurt” not Palmer...

Agreed on all accounts.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-09-2020, 06:03 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I read a mock draft the other day and the comment on the Bengals taking Burrow #1 was "if the Bengals don't take Burrow 1OA they should be made to go to the XFL,"

And I agree with his comments about JB's athletic ability. No he's not L. Jackson, but the guys far from a statue. I think people get locked in seeing him as a drop back passer standing like an oak tree so that's what they see. But he can get a few yards if needed.

Yes, Joe can move.  Not only in and around the pocket, or just straight for the sidelines, but I've seen him exploit an over zealous pass rush in deep coverage for 30+ yards in a carry.

[*jason*]

(01-09-2020, 09:21 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Yes, Joe can move.  Not only in and around the pocket, or just straight for the sidelines, but I've seen him exploit an over zealous pass rush in deep coverage for 30+ yards in a carry.

That'll come in handy around here...

[Shake n Blake]

(01-09-2020, 08:53 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: And here I think this approach is more important than ever seeing as how most QBs these days aren't starters for at least 3 years in college anymore when you're looking at first round QBs. There's guys coming into the NFL with just 1 year as a starter in college. That 1 year of sitting in the NFL could do wonders.

Joe Burrow is obviously the pick, but it does worry me that he was only the starter for 2 years, and only good for 1 of those 2 years. I think sitting a year behind a good vet would greatly enhance his chances of NFL success. Doubly so considering it'd give the Bengals an extra year to un-F their OL since we pretty much can all assume they aren't going to do it in FA this offseason.

I don't want Burrow playing behind Jonah Williams, Billy Price, Tre Hopkins, Michael Jordan, Bobby Hart.... and I don't want Burrow playing in Zac Taylor's awful offense. Hopefully in another year neither of those will be a thing to worry about.

You honestly raise some good points and if we do zilch in free agency again, I at least think we should consider sitting him a year until Mike finally wakes up and realizes his o-line has sucked for 5 years.

That said, it's hard to envision Zac going 2-14 and then giving a redshirt year to the star QB. That said, he probably won't be fired either way, so I guess it doesn't matter. Fans will be pissed and I'd say rightfully so, but Mike has never cared what fans think.

I guess it depends on how much they want to get out of that cheap rookie contract. A smart team would trim fat contracts like Dalton, Glenn, Kirkpatrick and possibly Green. We're not a smart team though. Kinda tough to predict what Mike will do.

My guess is that we do very little in free agency, we cut Dalton out of respect (and lack of a trade market), we "fill all needs" through the draft and start Burrow to drive ticket sales. Green is the situation to watch. I doubt we want to give him a big contract after the injuries, but I could see us slapping a tag on him.

[HarleyDog]

I was actually surprised Palmer didn't try and cut the organization like he usually does. Great points made about the contract. Great points by others that Mike likes to sit a QB or any other player for a year or 3 before they get in there (or maybe that was Marvin, who knows). IMO you draft him and throw him into the lions den and let him figure it out. Mahomes did it, and if he doesn't achieve? He goes into his second year full of knowledge and ready to take us places. Well, that's if he doesn't get killed?

As for AJ? Well, just put up or shut up because he's been unreliable for a few years. Business has always been, "What have you done for me lately!" Mike tends to be too loyal. Show or go!

[Sled21]

Good grief, Palmer is like that stalker ex-girlfriend who follows everything you do and has to comment on all your new girlfriends.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

Looking the last LSU QB to go 1 overall. Many red flags with Russell. Accuracy, mobility, decision making, work ethic. Burrow has none of these red flags.

[CJD]

Jets nation wrote an article about sitting vs playing a rookie back when they drafted Darnold, if anyone is interested on their take:
https://www.ganggreennation.com/2018/8/6/17655388/how-rookie-year-playing-time-impacts-a-qbs-future-chances-of-success-new-york-jets-sam-darnold

You can read his charts and such to get an idea, but this was his basic  conclusion:

Quote:This is not to say these quarterbacks would have been successful had they started right away, nor is it a negative indictment on guys like McCown, who is a revered leader. It’s not a cause-and-effect. After all, it’s very likely these players were sat simply because they weren’t even good enough to beat out that bad competition. It is only to demonstrate that sitting first round quarterbacks simply for the sake of sitting them when the alternative is not a playoff-worthy quarterback has proved to be a very poor move...

A quarterback can start 16 games as a rookie and bust. He can start 15, 14, 13, or 12 and bust. That’s clearly demonstrated in the charts above - throwing a guy out for 16 games as a new professional is by no means a way to guarantee his future success. However, history strongly suggests that more burn for a rookie can only increase their long-term chances - while sitting him is a fast track to disappointment if you are without an established star in the driver’s seat.

[fredtoast]

No way we sit Burrow for a year. In fact I think it is safe to say that in today's NFL any QB good enough to be taken with the #1 pick by any team is going to be expected to start immediately.

If we trade the #1 pick for a bunch of other picks and take a QB later in the draft then maybe he sits, but I doubt it even then. Dalton was a 2nd round pick and he started opening day.

If we end up taking Tua then maybe we give him a year to heal, but I pray that does not happen.

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-09-2020, 07:34 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Only Mahomes is close to being a recent example, because they stopped doing it after the Rookie Wage Scale... the whole point Palmer was making.

Before that, though, there were a lot of extremely successful QBs who sat. There are currently 4 active QBs right now who are already destined to end up in the Hall of Fame. Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Rivers. All four of them sat.

Of the next tier who probably will get in based off multiple SB wins (Roethlisberger, Eli Manning) one of them are on the list, too.

Meanwhile the best QB in the NFL under the age of 30 (Mahomes) is also on that list.

That's pretty telling.

Ben and Eli didn't sit a year. Mahomes only sat because they had Smith. 

It's a waste to sit a guy for an entire year with the way salaries are now and with the way most college offenses are now. QBs are much more able to come in and start right away (taking a few lumps) than to sit where they take their lumps in year two. That's 1 wasted year and one probably not very productive year. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-09-2020, 07:51 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: My point was the irony is Dalton is and was better than Palmer. Do, I guess he agrees we desperately needed to replace him in 2011 coming off another bad year. He was knocking himself and not smart enough to know it.

Dalton played longer. That doesn't mean he was better. 

[*psychdoctor*]

Palmer gave a cerebral logical response and I think his grounds for selecting Burrow is quite solid. I liked his reasoning.

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-09-2020, 11:01 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: You honestly raise some good points and if we do zilch in free agency again, I at least think we should consider sitting him a year until Mike finally wakes up and realizes his o-line has sucked for 5 years.

That said, it's hard to envision Zac going 2-14 and then giving a redshirt year to the star QB. That said, he probably won't be fired either way, so I guess it doesn't matter. Fans will be pissed and I'd say rightfully so, but Mike has never cared what fans think.

I guess it depends on how much they want to get out of that cheap rookie contract. A smart team would trim fat contracts like Dalton, Glenn, Kirkpatrick and possibly Green. We're not a smart team though. Kinda tough to predict what Mike will do.

My guess is that we do very little in free agency, we cut Dalton out of respect (and lack of a trade market), we "fill all needs" through the draft and start Burrow to drive ticket sales. Green is the situation to watch. I doubt we want to give him a big contract after the injuries, but I could see us slapping a tag on him.

You just know a standard garden variety MB offseason is coming. Like you say standing pat with the bulk of the current roster, They may cut or trade Dalton ? Two weeks into free agency they'll sign Joe Blow, Hobspin will do an article claiming he's gonna return to pro bowl this season. We'll get zero extra draft picks. Take a 2nd round flyer on some "athlete" from outer Uzebikistan who can run fast.

Usual story, and the Bungalazition of JB will begin.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-10-2020, 03:32 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: You just know a standard garden variety MB offseason is coming. Like you say standing pat with the bulk of the current roster, They may cut or trade Dalton ? Two weeks into free agency they'll sign Joe Blow, Hobspin will do an article claiming he's gonna return to pro bowl this season. We'll get zero extra draft picks. Take a 2nd round flyer on some "athlete" from outer Uzebikistan who can run fast.

Usual story, and the Bungalazition of JB will begin.

I'm hoping for a surprise, but it's tough to bet against Mike Brown keeping things the same. It's just what he does 95% of the time.

[*bfine32*]

(01-10-2020, 01:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If we end up taking Tua then maybe we give him a year to heal, but I pray that does not happen.

Why don't you want Tua to heal?

[fredtoast]

(01-09-2020, 07:51 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: My point was the irony is Dalton is and was better than Palmer. 

Everyone knows I like Dalton, but Carson was better.

Dalton finished in the top 10 in passer rating just one season ('15).  Palmer did it 4 times.

Dalton finished in the top 10 in passing yards just one season ('13).  Palmer did it 8 times (4 times in top 5)

Dalton finished in the top ten in tds 3 times but never higher than 3rd.  Palmer did it 6 times (led league in '05, 3 times in top 2)

Despite playing several years in seasons when the league average passer rating was lower than in Dalton's era, Palmer still has a higher career passer rating than Dalton.

A lot of people don't like Palmer for the way he left the Bengals, but he was a damn good QB.  Better than Dalton.

[fredtoast]

(01-10-2020, 04:53 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Why don't you want Tua to heal?

I am a Vol fan and Tua played for Bama.

[XenoMorph]

(01-10-2020, 05:21 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Everyone knows I like Dalton, but Carson was better.

Dalton finished in the top 10 in passer rating just one season ('15).  Palmer did it 4 times.

Dalton finished in the top 10 in passing yards just one season ('13).  Palmer did it 8 times (4 times in top 5)

Dalton finished in the top ten in tds 3 times but never higher than 3rd.  Palmer did it 6 times (led league in '05, 3 times in top 2)

Despite playing several years in seasons when the league average passer rating was lower than in Dalton's era, Palmer still has a higher career passer rating than Dalton.

A lot of people don't like Palmer for the way he left the Bengals, but he was a damn good QB.  Better than Dalton.

he was very generous with them Pick 6's too towards the end....  9 is just 6 going the wrong way...

Palmer overall had the arm talent over dalton and usually a better core of WRs to work with(i feel like we had a better run game back then too)...   Daltons had AJ

Palmer had Chad and TJ and Henry for a bit... They brought in Coles for him ,Bryant* and TO.     


I give dalton the edge in grit though. (had so many OC changes (5 ) while here...  Palmer played in the same offense all his years here)

     Overall i like both these guys its hard to compare guys directly that when they had different crews/coordinators

[Pat5775]

(01-10-2020, 02:30 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Dalton played longer. That doesn't mean he was better. 

From strictly an overall talent standpoint, Dalton wasn’t even in Carson’s league.

If Carson never made his trade demand after 2010, I’m fairly certain the team still makes the playoffs from 2011-2015. Dalton had a better supporting cast around him those five years.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-09-2020, 05:40 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: I know some don't really care what Carson has to say about anything, but I always like to see what former Bengals have to say about Bengal related topics, and he shares some of his thoughts in a recent Draft Wire article.

On Bengals taking Burrow or Chase Young:

"I think between Joe Burrow and the Ohio State defensive end Chase Young, the Bengals have a decision to make and I’m not sure there’s a wrong decision between those guys. I think both of those guys are gonna have phenomenal careers. At the end of the day, the quarterback position is just so important and Cincinnati desperately needs a quarterback. I can see Joe Burrow going No. 1 overall there. With Chase Young and the year he had, he looks like an absolute game-wrecker at the NFL level. Again, the quarterback position is just so important and there’s so few great quarterbacks.

I think Burrow is gonna be a great NFL quarterback. He’s led his team up until this point, he’s been extremely tough in the pocket. He’s more athletic than people give him credit for. We’ve seen him use his legs a little bit and I think that’s an underrated trait to his game. Quarterbacks running in the SEC typically translate over well to the pro game. If you can run, take off and get 10 yards here and there against SEC defenses, there’s a good chance that you can do that at the NFL level as well. He’s that type of athlete and he has a dynamic skill-set."

On playing or sitting a #1 overall rookie QB:

"I think that’s more a function of the salary cap and rookie wage scale. When I was coming out, and Phillip Rivers did the same thing by sitting for a year, that was before the rookie wage scale. We were signing six-year contracts back then. Nowadays, these guys are forced to sign four-year contracts. The team and the players don’t have the luxury of sitting and waiting. We’re talking about missing out on 25% of their rookie contracts by sitting them for even just a year. 

When it’s all said and done, that gives them just three years to make a decision on their future and if they’re gonna reward a guy with a big, massive contract extension. I think it’s a function of the way the salary cap and the rookie wage scale is set up nowadays. Ideally, I think it’s important for a guy to sit and watch for a year. You just don’t see that anymore for the reasons I outlined above."

Completely agree with him except maybe on Chase Young who has disappeared lately. He seems to have blow up games and
then disappears when teams focus on taking him out of the equation. Joe Burrow is just the obvious choice, I don't think there 
is a choice honestly anymore unless Burrow gets injured (knock on wood).