Auden Tate is Much Better Than Most People Think

[Wes Mantooth]

So I thought I'd show a little love to Tate here with this thread. I'm not so sure he really gets talked about enough on here, and he definitely gets slept on by the media. He's one of a plethora of reasons I want no part of AJ Green returning on a multi-year deal. Here's why, IMHO, I think he may be overlooked...

---His core numbers for this season: 40 catches, 575 yards 1TD. On paper these may not be eye-catching, but if you dig a little deeper I think you'll find they're actually quite impressive.

He did not play in week 1, and hardly saw action in week 2 (only 33% of snaps). It was not until week 3 he was inserted into a significant role. He also missed parts of the Oakland and Cleveland games due to injury and early exits. He then missed the final 3 games after being IR'd.

So what does this tell me/you? Tate missed the entirety of 4 games and significant parts of 3 others. If you project out these stats over a 16 game season (adding a conservative 5 games of missed production) they look like this... 54 catches, 815 yards.

--- While he didn't score much, I don't think that is a concern. Scoring is not only not a weakness but it is a strength.

Looking at his frame, 6'5, 230 it's obvious he's a red zone threat just by sheer size. But again, if you dig deeper it's even more apparent.

This was considered his strength coming out of FSU. Why? Despite only starting 8 games his last year, due to a separated shoulder, he managed 10 TD's.

The lack of TDs last year may stand out on a stat sheet but I don't think it's all that telling in regards to skill. I think it can be easily explained due to lack of opportunites and situational factors (Bad team with below average scoring, bad play-calling, undefined role and missed time, etc.)

---His YPC, at 14.4 is strong, especially for a player who dropped due to perceived lack of speed.

He averaged almost 3 full yards more per reception than a more than capable Tyler Boyd. Outside of the one-trick pony that is John Ross, Tate had the highest YPC on the team.

---40 times are over-valued and don't translate well...

If you wondered why a guy with this size, coming out of FSU, falls to where he did, the answer is simple: His 40 time. He ran a 4.68.

The problem with this is that 40 times are way over-valued. Running in shorts is not the same as running in full gear. Running in a routine drill, out of a stance, on a track, and to the sound of a gun is not the same as running in a game, out of standing position, on a grass field, to the sound of a QB in a high-stress envioroment. Nor do players run straight routes, without interference. You are getting checked at the line, and often are breaking inside or outside around the defender.

Keep in mind, Anquan Boldin ran a 4.71. TJ Housh didn't even run at the combine and is supposedly in similar territory. Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens both reportably ran in the 4.6's.

---His age and experience. He came out early as a Junior. He didn't see exactly a ton of starts in his 3 years either. He also saw very limited action in his rookie year. He was then thrust in his role late this offseason because of AJ.

With a year of significant experience and a full off-season of a defined role, I think it will help. All things considered, I think he did phenominal last year.

---Intagibles. I think we can all agree he's a pretty tough kid. He made a slew of tough catches, he bounced back from a brutal hit, he never shyed away from going across the middle. What else?

His blocking, for me, was encouraging. He looked to be willing to take on that aspect of the game much like a TJ or Sanu did. Some receivers want to run their routes and may throw a half-arsed block here and there, but really don't want to mix it up a bunch. (Cough: John Ross) Tate laid the wood a few times.

Also, I found this interesting. Tate only had 6 penalties on the year, and they were all holds or blocking penalties. He had no false starts, no lining up offsides, no personal fouls, no PI's. Basically I take that as zero mental penalties, all effort penalties.

-----------------------------------------

I'll wrap it up. Obviously I like the kid. I like tough players. I'll take tough players over track-stars. (Tate vs. Ross). To me Tate is a football player and Ross is not. I think Tate was completely overlooked coming out and was a steal. And I'm really anxious to see him develop. I'm also concerned about taking reps from him and wasting cap dollars by bringing AJ back. Save the money for OL, and let this kid play with Boyd as your 1/2.

[*bengalfan74*]

I've been a Tate fan basically from the beginning. A lot of guys get all broke up about speed and think if a WR can't outrun a cheetah he's not good, I'm not among that group. Tate brings a lot to the table and I'm very anxious to see Burrow throwing to him. Hopefully !

As to AJ I'm ok either way provided he signs a very team friendly basically prove it kinda deal. Long term top dollar kinda contract, no way.

[Whatever]

(01-21-2020, 09:11 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: So I thought I'd show a little love to Tate here with this thread. I'm not so sure he really gets talked about enough on here, and he definitely gets slept on by the media. He's one of a plethora of reasons I want no part of AJ Green returning on a multi-year deal. Here's why, IMHO, I think he may be overlooked...

---His core numbers for this season: 40 catches, 575 yards 1TD.  On paper these may not be eye-catching, but if you dig a little deeper I think you'll find they're actually quite impressive.

He did not play in week 1, and hardly saw action in week 2 (only 33% of snaps). It was not until week 3 he was inserted into a significant role. He also missed parts of the Oakland and Cleveland games due to injury and early exits. He then missed the final 3 games after being IR'd.

So what does this tell me/you? Tate missed the entirety of 4 games and significant parts of 3 others. If you project out these stats over a 16 game season (adding a conservative 5 games of missed production) they look like this... 54 catches, 815 yards.

--- While he didn't score much, I don't think that is a concern. Scoring is not only not a weakness but it is a strength.

Looking at his frame, 6'5, 230 it's obvious he's a red zone threat just by sheer size. But again, if you dig deeper it's even more apparent.

This was considered his strength coming out of FSU. Why? Despite only starting 8 games his last year, due to a separated shoulder, he managed 10 TD's.

The lack of TDs last year may stand out on a stat sheet but I don't think it's all that telling in regards to skill. I think it can be easily explained due to lack of opportunites and situational factors (Bad team with below average scoring, bad play-calling, undefined role and missed time, etc.)

---His YPC, at 14.4 is strong, especially for a player who dropped due to perceived lack of speed.

He averaged almost 3 full yards more per reception than a more than capable Tyler Boyd. Outside of the one-trick pony that is John Ross, Tate had the highest YPC on the team.

---40 times are over-valued and don't translate well...

If you wondered why a guy with this size, coming out of FSU, falls to where he did, the answer is simple: His 40 time. He ran a 4.68.

The problem with this is that 40 times are way over-valued. Running in shorts is not the same as running in full gear. Running in a routine drill, out of a stance, on a track, and to the sound of a gun is not the same as running in a game, out of standing position, on a grass field, to the sound of a QB in a high-stress envioroment. Nor do players run straight routes, without interference. You are getting checked at the line, and often are breaking inside or outside around the defender.

Keep in mind, Anquan Boldin ran a 4.71. TJ Housh didn't even run at the combine and is supposedly in similar territory. Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens both reportably ran in the 4.6's.

---His age and experience. He came out early as a Junior. He didn't see exactly a ton of starts in his 3 years either.  He also saw very limited action in his rookie year. He was then thrust in his role late this offseason because of AJ.

With a year of significant experience and a full off-season of a defined role, I think it will help. All things considered, I think he did phenominal last year.

---Intagibles. I think we can all agree he's a pretty tough kid. He made a slew of tough catches, he bounced back from a brutal hit, he never shyed away from going across the middle. What else?

His blocking, for me, was encouraging. He looked to be willing to take on that aspect of the game much like a TJ or Sanu did. Some receivers want to run their routes and may throw a half-arsed block here and there, but really don't want to mix it up a bunch. (Cough: John Ross) Tate laid the wood a few times.

Also, I found this interesting. Tate only had 6 penalties on the year, and they were all holds or blocking penalties. He had no false starts, no lining up offsides, no personal fouls, no PI's.  Basically I take that as zero mental penalties, all effort penalties.

-----------------------------------------

I'll wrap it up. Obviously I like the kid. I like tough players. I'll take tough players over track-stars. (Tate vs. Ross). To me Tate is a football player and Ross is not. I think Tate was completely overlooked coming out and was a steal. And I'm really anxious to see him develop. I'm also concerned about taking reps from him and wasting cap dollars by bringing AJ back. Save the money for OL, and let this kid play with Boyd as your 1/2.

The Tate vs Ross comparisons go off the rails when you prorate Ross's production in a similar fashion to Tate's.  Ross would have hypothetically had 1000+ yards and 6 TD's if he stayed healthy.  There's no legitimate case to make Tate #2 over Ross.

However, that also highlights their biggest similarity.  They are both injury prone.  

Regardless of which one fits anyone's particular tastes better, both Ross and Tate are unreliable due to their injury history.  Bringing back an injury prone AJ isn't the answer, either.  They need to double dip in a deep WR class.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-21-2020, 11:24 PM)Whatever Wrote: The Tate vs Ross comparisons go off the rails when you prorate Ross's production in a similar fashion to Tate's.  Ross would have hypothetically had 1000+ yards and 6 TD's if he stayed healthy.  There's no legitimate case to make Tate #2 over Ross.

Here's the thing, you can't prorate Ross' production to compare to anyone's, as in 3 full years as a pro, he's never managed to be able to stay on the field..
And, that was a major point that many were making when the Bengals wasted that number 10 pick on him.

[Yojimbo]

Just wait until he has a QB that doesn’t throw it 5 feet over his head or 3 yards behind him on every route.

[*Synric*]

I was a fan of Tate going into the year but soured after it.

It's not just his long speed he has zero short area quickness which limits his route tree. I remember seeing him run a whip route in the end zone and box out the defender but he was so slow the defender had enough time to smoke a cigarette and then jump the route and knock the ball down. 

Auden Tate can make some crazy catches down the sideline but hes also a 50% catch rate guy because he ALWAYS has a defender in his grill. He doesnt scare defenses coordinators at all they arent going to put a safety over him and he isnt going to take a short pass for a distance. For a guy his size he struggles against press coverage that is why he only has a single touchdown.

[BFritz21]

I think him and Aj would be a nightmare on the field at the same time, especially in the red zone (jump balls galore), and especially with Mixon making teams load the box. Leaving either one of them single-covered without a safety over the top, especially with a Qb like Burrow, leaves the defense vary open to a big play.

If you don't load the box, Mixon will bust off 6 yards a pop.

[CJD]

Watching Tate catch those back side jump balls from Burrow next year is going to be a treat for Bengals fans.

[grampahol]

When Tate was initially picked in the 7th or whichever round it was, I forget I was initially skeptical. Why was I skeptical? Somewhat slower? No.. The round? Not really. I made the common mistake and I paid attention to what certain people here wrote, that he was too slow, a low round pick and so forth. Then I had to think of why I was always for the underdogs in these matters in the first place and something Marvin often said, it doesn't matter how you get on the team. It matters what you do once you're on the team.
We often put far too much emphasis on the first round pick as if that's the only pick that matters and we do this year in, year out like clock work, but the vast majority of the best players on this and nearly every team come from picks other than the first round. If the truth were that the only players worth having were all first round picks football would have 1 or 2 players on any team or they'd do away with rounds altogether and just pick players and never tell the public which round or position they were picked at all. (which would probably be far more fair in the long run)
Since we usually don't get the first overall pick except on rare occasion to me it's a non-factor most seasons. One of the very best players this team has had was a 4th round pick from Georgia and several have been undrafted which makes me wonder why in hell we go through this every year regardless of pick position be it the first pick or the 32nd or the 534th for that matter.
When players are rookies it's usually a crap shoot either way, first, seventh or undrafted. Hell, they're young men just leaving college entering a grown man's game to earn potentially millions upon millions of dollars. How many young men do you personally know who leave college and go on to earn millions of dollars with big brand endorsement contracts? I dare say not many and predicting those kinds of accomplishments is nearly impossible.
While I think Joe burrow will go on to have a fine NFL career truth is I really have no idea if he'll ever make it in the league. He might get injured or just wash out and not live up to expectations. It happens all the time, but it also happens that some guy almost nobody knows about will inevitably grow into their young bodies and become a huge star in the same league. It appears that Auden Tate will be one of the later, a young guy who gets off to a rocky start, but through hard work, determination and a little luck finds a nice, sweet niche in his spot and may just become a big star in his own right. Still, I have no idea how high or low his ceiling is, just that he's impressed several among us and the coaching staff enough to want to keep rooting for him.
Heck, for that matter I root for every player in stripes and hope they all have the greatest season(s) anyone whoever put on stripes ever had..and that includes John Ross as well.

[Whatever]

(01-21-2020, 11:56 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Here's the thing, you can't prorate Ross' production to compare to anyone's, as in 3 full years as a pro, he's never managed to be able to stay on the field..
And, that was a major point that many were making when the Bengals wasted that number 10 pick on him.

You can't prorate one guy's stats due to injury to make a case for him starting over another injured guy who's stats are better if you prorate them.  It's an argument completely lacking in any objectivity.  If both are healthy, the guy that produces more should start.

Is Ross a disappointment?  Yes.  Has Tate exceeded expectations?  Yes.  Is Tate a more productive player on the field?  No.  Is Tate reliable from an injury standpoint?  No.  He was injured as a freshman.  He was injured as a junior.  He was injured his first TC.  He was injured in his 2nd preseason.  He went on IR his second season.  He hasn't had an injury free season where he actually played an appreciable amount since he was a sophomore.

Tate vs Ross is less productive/less injury prone vs more productive/more injury prone.  Neither guy is reliable or a safe bet.

[impactplaya]

(01-22-2020, 12:21 AM)Synric Wrote: I was a fan of Tate going into the year but soured after it.

It's not just his long speed he has zero short area quickness which limits his route tree. I remember seeing him run a whip route in the end zone and box out the defender but he was so slow the defender had enough time to smoke a cigarette and then jump the route and knock the ball down. 

Auden Tate can make some crazy catches down the sideline but hes also a 50% catch rate guy because he ALWAYS has a defender in his grill. He doesnt scare defenses coordinators at all they arent going to put a safety over him and he isnt going to take a short pass for a distance. For a guy his size he struggles against press coverage that is why he only has a single touchdown.

Auden Tate has made some people look foolish cause he has 
Solified himself on the roster 
Tate is a big bodied WR who made strides in year 2.
All the more amazing when you consider for a better part of the 
Year the Bengals offense lacked a true burner To back the safties up and loosen the middle of the field 
If defenses dont have to worry about a vertical threat 
Then all.they do is condense and blanket everything underneath 
Passing windows shrink 
Auden Tate rarely had a chance to do damage after a catch 
Cause either 
A. He was catching balls that extended his radius.
B. Most of his routes asked him to have his back to the defense.
Curls...sit down routes...
Was he ever asked to run a Seam route
Or a skinny post ?
Put Tate in the Chiefs offense. He would actually be schemed 
To get open. Get favorable match ups 
Tate is far from a finished product.
But let's not forget.
He was in a offense with a playcaller that took 10 games 
To figure out how to use Mixon and the TEs.
Sometimes talented players are handcuffed by inept OCs.

[*Synric*]

(01-22-2020, 12:53 AM)impactplaya Wrote: Auden Tate has made some people look foolish cause he has 
Solified himself on the roster 
Tate is a big bodied WR who made strides in year 2.
All the more amazing when you consider for a better part of the 
Year the Bengals offense lacked a true burner To back the safties up and loosen the middle of the field 
If defenses dont have to worry about a vertical threat 
Then all.they do is condense and blanket everything underneath 
Passing windows shrink 
Auden Tate rarely had a chance to do damage after a catch 
Cause either 
A. He was catching balls that extended his radius.
B. Most of his routes asked him to have his back to the defense.
Curls...sit down routes...
Was he ever asked to run a Seam route
Or a skinny post ?
Put Tate in the Chiefs offense. He would actually be schemed 
To get open. Get favorable match ups 
Tate is far from a finished product.
But let's not forget.
He was in a offense with a playcaller that took 10 games 
To figure out how to use Mixon and the TEs.
Sometimes talented players are handcuffed by inept OCs.

Alot of excuses here.

Tate has no explosion to his game or short area quickness. His best route was a deep curl or comeback into a zone because he could sit into open space. Dalton was forced to throw him backshoulder alot in man coverage because the corners always had the deep leverage. Tate struggles in the redzone because it takes explosion off the line.

I know everyone loves the body control I did too one of the reasons I was high on him but as an all around receiver he is lacking.

This is Van Jefferson from the Senior bowl today.

Nice separation by Van Jefferson pic.twitter.com/5vghKC4iZR

— Billy M (@BillyM_91) January 21, 2020

That is what you want from an outside receiver. That release and explosion off the line completley opened up the route tree for Jefferson.

This Collin Johnson today. Johnson is 6'6 220+ Watch how quickly he eats the cushion in off man sells the post then the seven then bam snaps it off into a dig. (It was also again Pitts Dane Jackson who had probably the best day at corner.)

Collin Johnson too big, but he can move like crazy for his size too.

pic.twitter.com/St2KVd10wD

— ?? ‘??? ????? ?????’ ??????? (@LuridRaider) January 21, 2020

[Whatever]

(01-22-2020, 12:21 AM)Synric Wrote: I was a fan of Tate going into the year but soured after it.

It's not just his long speed he has zero short area quickness which limits his route tree. I remember seeing him run a whip route in the end zone and box out the defender but he was so slow the defender had enough time to smoke a cigarette and then jump the route and knock the ball down. 

Auden Tate can make some crazy catches down the sideline but hes also a 50% catch rate guy because he ALWAYS has a defender in his grill. He doesnt scare defenses coordinators at all they arent going to put a safety over him and he isnt going to take a short pass for a distance. For a guy his size he struggles against press coverage that is why he only has a single touchdown.

That's the thing, it's not just his lack of deep speed.  His short area quickness is also extremely poor.  He has a limited number of routes he can be effective on due to those limitations.  People tout his ypc as somehow disproving his lack of speed, but it's really just a product of him only really being effective on intermediate routes and he's good at dragging defenders for extra yards.  

He is what he is, which is a fine depth WR.  He's not a guy you want getting 80 targets like he did this year.  I think he had 39% contested catch % this year, which is good for an NFL WR, but people have this illusion that Tate turns 50/50 balls into 70/30 balls and it's just not the case.  NFL DB's are just too good at playing the ball for a guy who can't get separation to get good production without force feeding him the ball, which is what they did last year out of necessity.

[TheSweetness]

(01-22-2020, 12:48 AM)Whatever Wrote: You can't prorate one guy's stats due to injury to make a case for him starting over another injured guy who's stats are better if you prorate them.  It's an argument completely lacking in any objectivity.  If both are healthy, the guy that produces more should start.

Is Ross a disappointment?  Yes.  Has Tate exceeded expectations?  Yes.  Is Tate a more productive player on the field?  No.  Is Tate reliable from an injury standpoint?  No.  He was injured as a freshman.  He was injured as a junior.  He was injured his first TC.  He was injured in his 2nd preseason.  He went on IR his second season.  He hasn't had an injury free season where he actually played an appreciable amount since he was a sophomore.

Tate vs Ross is less productive/less injury prone vs more productive/more injury prone.  Neither guy is reliable or a safe bet.

Literally had the exact same thoughts when I read that post. Well said. 

[Whatever]

(01-22-2020, 12:53 AM)impactplaya Wrote: Auden Tate has made some people look foolish cause he has 
Solified himself on the roster 
Tate is a big bodied WR who made strides in year 2.
All the more amazing when you consider for a better part of the 
Year the Bengals offense lacked a true burner To back the safties up and loosen the middle of the field 
If defenses dont have to worry about a vertical threat 
Then all.they do is condense and blanket everything underneath 
Passing windows shrink 
Auden Tate rarely had a chance to do damage after a catch 
Cause either 
A. He was catching balls that extended his radius.
B. Most of his routes asked him to have his back to the defense.
Curls...sit down routes...
Was he ever asked to run a Seam route
Or a skinny post ?
Put Tate in the Chiefs offense. He would actually be schemed 
To get open. Get favorable match ups 
Tate is far from a finished product.
But let's not forget.
He was in a offense with a playcaller that took 10 games 
To figure out how to use Mixon and the TEs.
Sometimes talented players are handcuffed by inept OCs.

Any S in the league will be licking their chops if you throw it to a WR that slow on a skinny post.  At best, you're just throwing up a jump ball into double coverage and hoping for a minor miracle or a flag.  

The Chiefs skill positions are based on speed and home run hitters.  When Andy Reid schemes guys open, he tries to get guys with the short area quickness and top end speed to get big chunks open.  That isn't Tate. He's not a scheme fit at all.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-21-2020, 11:56 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Here's the thing, you can't prorate Ross' production to compare to anyone's, as in 3 full years as a pro, he's never managed to be able to stay on the field..
And, that was a major point that many were making when the Bengals wasted that number 10 pick on him.

#9 actually.

[Joelist]

Ross and Tate are not the same WR either in their strengths or their weaknesses.

Tate plays the ball well but has zero ability to get any separation. Ross has speed but is horrible at actually playing the WR position.

[Au165]

(01-22-2020, 12:21 AM)Synric Wrote: I was a fan of Tate going into the year but soured after it.

It's not just his long speed he has zero short area quickness which limits his route tree. I remember seeing him run a whip route in the end zone and box out the defender but he was so slow the defender had enough time to smoke a cigarette and then jump the route and knock the ball down. 

Auden Tate can make some crazy catches down the sideline but hes also a 50% catch rate guy because he ALWAYS has a defender in his grill. He doesnt scare defenses coordinators at all they arent going to put a safety over him and he isnt going to take a short pass for a distance. For a guy his size he struggles against press coverage that is why he only has a single touchdown.

I went into a bunch of advanced stats on this topic last time so I'll avoid doing that again for the most part. The summation of my stance based on those stats was Tate suffered from a lot of uncatchable balls and poor ball placement. He was top 20 in the league in contested catch percentage so he makes the most out of it, but no one of the team was thrown more uncatchable balls. For some reason even when he'd run a slant and he has the CB shielded off Dalton either thew it way behind him (Bills) or way in front where he has to dive (Baltimore), he very rarely got a chance at a ball in stride.

People came back and countered with separation, blah blah. He got more separation than Mike Williams in LA and was better at catching contested balls. The big difference was Williams got thrown FAR more catchable passes. Overall I think Mike Williams is a really fair comparison on what Tate probably can be with improved QB play and more opportunity. 

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-22-2020, 09:05 AM)Au165 Wrote: I went into a bunch of advanced stats on this topic last time so I'll avoid doing that again for the most part. The summation of my stance based on those stats was Tate suffered from a lot of uncatchable balls and poor ball placement. He was top 20 in the league in contested catch percentage so he makes the most out of it, but no one of the team was thrown more uncatchable balls. For some reason even when he'd run a slant and he has the CB shielded off Dalton either thew it way behind him (Bills) or way in front where he has to dive (Baltimore), he very rarely got a chance at a ball in stride.

People came back and countered with separation, blah blah. He got more separation than Mike Williams in LA and was better at catching contested balls. The big difference was Williams got thrown FAR more catchable passes. Overall I think Mike Williams is a really fair comparison on what Tate probably can be with improved QB play and more opportunity. 

I believe the buzz word "separation" gets tossed around a bit much. Is every snap in the NFL in tight man coverage ?

I'm anxious to see Tate's "separation" with Burrow throwing the ball.

[Au165]

(01-22-2020, 09:48 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I believe the buzz word "separation" gets tossed around a bit much. Is every snap in the NFL in tight man coverage ?

I'm anxious to see Tate's "separation" with Burrow throwing the ball.

It does, and the answer is no. You don't need separation if you can put your body between the defender and the ball. 

Guys who got less separation then Auden Tate this year...

Kenny Golladay
Mike Williams
Terry McLaurin
Preston Williams
DeVante Parker
Darius SLayton
Julio Jones
Golden Tate
Robby Anderson
AJ Brown
Michael Gallup
Allen Robinson

Mike Evans had .1 yard separation more and DK Metcalf had .2 just for a little more context.

I think he will be fine getting the separation he gets. He is still a young receiver who needs more reps (and catchable bally), but as a 7th round pick is already producing well relative to capital spent on him.