Auden Tate is Much Better Than Most People Think

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-21-2020, 09:11 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: So I thought I'd show a little love to Tate here with this thread. I'm not so sure he really gets talked about enough on here, and he definitely gets slept on by the media. He's one of a plethora of reasons I want no part of AJ Green returning on a multi-year deal. Here's why, IMHO, I think he may be overlooked...

---His core numbers for this season: 40 catches, 575 yards 1TD.  On paper these may not be eye-catching, but if you dig a little deeper I think you'll find they're actually quite impressive.

He did not play in week 1, and hardly saw action in week 2 (only 33% of snaps). It was not until week 3 he was inserted into a significant role. He also missed parts of the Oakland and Cleveland games due to injury and early exits. He then missed the final 3 games after being IR'd.

So what does this tell me/you? Tate missed the entirety of 4 games and significant parts of 3 others. If you project out these stats over a 16 game season (adding a conservative 5 games of missed production) they look like this... 54 catches, 815 yards.

--- While he didn't score much, I don't think that is a concern. Scoring is not only not a weakness but it is a strength.

Looking at his frame, 6'5, 230 it's obvious he's a red zone threat just by sheer size. But again, if you dig deeper it's even more apparent.

This was considered his strength coming out of FSU. Why? Despite only starting 8 games his last year, due to a separated shoulder, he managed 10 TD's.

The lack of TDs last year may stand out on a stat sheet but I don't think it's all that telling in regards to skill. I think it can be easily explained due to lack of opportunites and situational factors (Bad team with below average scoring, bad play-calling, undefined role and missed time, etc.)

---His YPC, at 14.4 is strong, especially for a player who dropped due to perceived lack of speed.

He averaged almost 3 full yards more per reception than a more than capable Tyler Boyd. Outside of the one-trick pony that is John Ross, Tate had the highest YPC on the team.

---40 times are over-valued and don't translate well...

If you wondered why a guy with this size, coming out of FSU, falls to where he did, the answer is simple: His 40 time. He ran a 4.68.

The problem with this is that 40 times are way over-valued. Running in shorts is not the same as running in full gear. Running in a routine drill, out of a stance, on a track, and to the sound of a gun is not the same as running in a game, out of standing position, on a grass field, to the sound of a QB in a high-stress envioroment. Nor do players run straight routes, without interference. You are getting checked at the line, and often are breaking inside or outside around the defender.

Keep in mind, Anquan Boldin ran a 4.71. TJ Housh didn't even run at the combine and is supposedly in similar territory. Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens both reportably ran in the 4.6's.

---His age and experience. He came out early as a Junior. He didn't see exactly a ton of starts in his 3 years either.  He also saw very limited action in his rookie year. He was then thrust in his role late this offseason because of AJ.

With a year of significant experience and a full off-season of a defined role, I think it will help. All things considered, I think he did phenominal last year.

---Intagibles. I think we can all agree he's a pretty tough kid. He made a slew of tough catches, he bounced back from a brutal hit, he never shyed away from going across the middle. What else?

His blocking, for me, was encouraging. He looked to be willing to take on that aspect of the game much like a TJ or Sanu did. Some receivers want to run their routes and may throw a half-arsed block here and there, but really don't want to mix it up a bunch. (Cough: John Ross) Tate laid the wood a few times.

Also, I found this interesting. Tate only had 6 penalties on the year, and they were all holds or blocking penalties. He had no false starts, no lining up offsides, no personal fouls, no PI's.  Basically I take that as zero mental penalties, all effort penalties.

-----------------------------------------

I'll wrap it up. Obviously I like the kid. I like tough players. I'll take tough players over track-stars. (Tate vs. Ross). To me Tate is a football player and Ross is not. I think Tate was completely overlooked coming out and was a steal. And I'm really anxious to see him develop. I'm also concerned about taking reps from him and wasting cap dollars by bringing AJ back. Save the money for OL, and let this kid play with Boyd as your 1/2.

I don't think AJ is going anywhere...the Browns will re-sign him.  However, I would support what you are saying if the Bengals drafted a WR in Rd 2 and were able to get one of the bigger vertical threats.  I like Tate a hell of a lot, and love how he came in this year and was lighter, faster, and more nuanced in his routes.  If he was in the slot, and you moved Boyd to AJ's position, I think it works.  Boyd isn't a burner, but is a very disciplined route runner.  He was the one guy I would see on the coaches cuts that would badly fool a DB and break away only to look back and the play had ended in a sack or checkdown.  I think Boyd benefits from improved oline play as much as anyone.

They would still need another burner to rotate with Ross and even Boyd if they let AJ Green go.  Depth beyond them was paper thin.  Love Stanley Morgan for his special teams and football IQ and Damian Willis looked like a star in preseason but seemed tentative on the big stage.  Understandable, but he needs to step it up if he is going to stay on the roster.  Erickson, perhaps the most divisive player on the roster, is a solid special teams guy and reliable backup WR.  Good quality depth.  All that being said, they need an additional talent at WR to push the top guys and bump off the lesser talent at the bottom of the roster.

Tate will likely have a bigger role in 2020-2021 as he wasn't really thought of as a starter until Green went down and Willis struggled.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-22-2020, 12:27 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: I think him and Aj would be a nightmare on the field at the same time, especially in the red zone (jump balls galore), and especially with Mixon making teams load the box.  Leaving either one of them single-covered without a safety over the top, especially with a Qb like Burrow, leaves the defense vary open to a big play.

If you don't load the box, Mixon will bust off 6 yards a pop.

This..and even if everyone loves to take shots at Ross, his presence does open the middle of the field and pulls a safety out of the box. 

Having Ross, Boyd, AJ, and Tate on the field at the same time would be difficult to defend.  I would rather have Tate out there than our TEs.  I don't see Eifert beating him in a footrace any more and Tate has some of the most amazing hands I have ever seen.  

Let Tate have a year of prep with Taylor as a potential starter and I think he will only continue to progress.  Better line play opens up MUCH more of the entire field than before, which benefits every offensive player.  

I keep dreaming of opening day where I have renewed my tickets (still waiting on the FA moves) and Whit is announced at LG, Thuney at RG, Williams at LT, and Burrow at QB.  That happens, this offense will be very respectable overnight.  

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

Tate damn near had his head removed  from his shoulders, and was back in a week. As the offense improves....he will as well, especially with another season and off-season under his belt. I said it when he was drafted, and I still maintain it....poor man's Anquan Boldin.

[Whatever]

(01-22-2020, 10:00 AM)Au165 Wrote: It does, and the answer is no. You don't need separation if you can put your body between the defender and the ball. 

Guys who got less separation then Auden Tate this year...

Kenny Golladay
Mike Williams
Terry McLaurin
Preston Williams
DeVante Parker
Darius SLayton
Julio Jones
Golden Tate
Robby Anderson
AJ Brown
Michael Gallup
Allen Robinson

Mike Evans had .1 yard separation more and DK Metcalf had .2 just for a little more context.

I think he will be fine getting the separation he gets. He is still a young receiver who needs more reps (and catchable bally), but as a 7th round pick is already producing well relative to capital spent on him.

What do the #2-6 teams in the draft order have in common?

They all have at least one guy on your list.

In fact, the only guy on this list that played for a team with a winning record is AJ Brown, and he tied for the league lead in 40+yard receptions with 8(Mike Williams also had 8).

The majority of these guys are on bad teams and get forced the ball due to a lack of weapons and/or being down on the scoreboard.  Several of them were also #1's on bad teams and saw a lot of double coverage as a result.

There are times when the QB has to thread the needle, but forcing him to do it over and over again just isn't a recipe for winning football.  A lot of the tools that made big, slow WR's effective in the past like push offs and using the DB to elevate have been cracked down on in recent years.  

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Great stuff on Auden Tate there Wes. Happy to see he came on in limited snaps, love how he snatches the ball out of the air.

Think if used correctly, more in the Red Zone and on 3rd downs he could be a weapon for us in the future. He has a rare ability to go up for the ball that we don't really have besides Boyd if we move on from AJ. If we do move on from AJ I still think we need to bring in another WR in FA as I agree that Ross is not dependable until he can stay on the field. Amari Cooper is who I would go after if we want to pay a WR big money.

[Au165]

(01-22-2020, 02:31 PM)Whatever Wrote: What do the #2-6 teams in the draft order have in common?

They all have at least one guy on your list.

In fact, the only guy on this list that played for a team with a winning record is AJ Brown, and he tied for the league lead in 40+yard receptions with 8(Mike Williams also had 8).

The majority of these guys are on bad teams and get forced the ball due to a lack of weapons and/or being down on the scoreboard.  Several of them were also #1's on bad teams and saw a lot of double coverage as a result.

There are times when the QB has to thread the needle, but forcing him to do it over and over again just isn't a recipe for winning football.  A lot of the tools that made big, slow WR's effective in the past like push offs and using the DB to elevate have been cracked down on in recent years.  

What does the team record have to do with anything? We are talking about the importance, or in reality lack of importance, of separation. Nothing you said in regards to trying to explain away guys stats has any relation to how effective a guy can be with little separation. You want to act as though there is some tie in with records so let's compare Hill (Best receiver in Super Bowl) versus Golladay (Least separation of anyone in the league).

Tyreek Hill on a Super Bowl playing team, In 12 games 89 Targets 58 receptions 860 yards 7 TD's
Kenny Golladay on a bad team, In 16 games 119 Targets 65 receptions 1190 yards 11 TD's

By your logic the Chiefs shouldn't be good because they force the ball too much to Hill, or the Lions should be better because 7.4 targets a game isn't forcing it. The reality is there is no causation in terms of #1 WR targets and winning. Julio Jones is on this list, Julio Freaking Jones. Julio Jones is considered a great WR and a 4.39 40 guys and he get's less separation than Tate yet we are somehow going to pretend like separation is a big deal?

Just stop with the nonsense. That list is littered with really good WR's that had I not shown you the list and asked if the WR's were good, or if they could get separation, everyone here would say "heck yea, we'd love to have those guys!". Tate may not be a superstar but we don't have to make up reasons to hate on the guy. He performed well when give a chance and I'd expect he will have more opputunity next season.

[*ochocincos*]

Imagine how much better the Bengals could have been if they had taken Michael Thomas and Marshon Lattimore in back-to-back years in the 1st round rather than WJ3 and John Ross.
And imagine how much more of a draw that would have made for Ohio St fans.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-22-2020, 10:30 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: This..and even if everyone loves to take shots at Ross, his presence does open the middle of the field and pulls a safety out of the box. 

Having Ross, Boyd, AJ, and Tate on the field at the same time would be difficult to defend.  I would rather have Tate out there than our TEs.  I don't see Eifert beating him in a footrace any more and Tate has some of the most amazing hands I have ever seen.  

Let Tate have a year of prep with Taylor as a potential starter and I think he will only continue to progress.  Better line play opens up MUCH more of the entire field than before, which benefits every offensive player.  

I keep dreaming of opening day where I have renewed my tickets (still waiting on the FA moves) and Whit is announced at LG, Thuney at RG, Williams at LT, and Burrow at QB.  That happens, this offense will be very respectable overnight.  

I don't think we'd see Whitworth back, but I never really gave it a thought of putting Whit back at the position in which he started...good idea.
That would free up a need and let Jordan, Price, and maybe a new draft pick groom for another year or start in place of Miller at RG.

[Au165]

(01-22-2020, 03:41 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Imagine how much better the Bengals could have been if they had taken Michael Thomas and Marshon Lattimore in back-to-back years in the 1st round rather than WJ3 and John Ross.
And imagine how much more of a draw that would have made for Ohio St fans.

I mean we can do that every year. Thomas went 21 picks after WJ3 so it's not like he was widely expected to go in the same area. In reality every team missed bad on that one haha. Lattimore on the other hand you can kind of make the case, but on the flip side we just spent a 1st on a CB the year before.

[*Synric*]

(01-22-2020, 09:05 AM)Au165 Wrote: I went into a bunch of advanced stats on this topic last time so I'll avoid doing that again for the most part. The summation of my stance based on those stats was Tate suffered from a lot of uncatchable balls and poor ball placement. He was top 20 in the league in contested catch percentage so he makes the most out of it, but no one of the team was thrown more uncatchable balls. For some reason even when he'd run a slant and he has the CB shielded off Dalton either thew it way behind him (Bills) or way in front where he has to dive (Baltimore), he very rarely got a chance at a ball in stride.

People came back and countered with separation, blah blah. He got more separation than Mike Williams in LA and was better at catching contested balls. The big difference was Williams got thrown FAR more catchable passes. Overall I think Mike Williams is a really fair comparison on what Tate probably can be with improved QB play and more opportunity. 

Here is Auden Tate's highlights: http://www.nfl.com/videos/cincinnati-bengals/0ap3000001095352/Auden-Tate-highlights-2019-season

What is missing? Not one play did the ball go over his shoulder and not one play did get make a guy miss in the open field.

Auden Tate is limited. He is an ok receiver but is forced to make circus catches because of his limitations. He is not a guy that is going to conaistently catch a quick hitch and take it 10 or 12 yards.  He is not a guy that is gonna get a step on a corner 1 on 1 running a seven eight or nine.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-22-2020, 03:46 PM)Au165 Wrote: I mean we can do that every year. Thomas went 21 picks after WJ3 so it's not like he was widely expected to go in the same area. In reality every team missed bad on that one haha. Lattimore on the other hand you can kind of make the case, but on the flip side we just spent a 1st on a CB the year before.

I know.

[Au165]

(01-22-2020, 03:49 PM)Synric Wrote: Here is Auden Tate's highlights: http://www.nfl.com/videos/cincinnati-bengals/0ap3000001095352/Auden-Tate-highlights-2019-season

What is missing? Not one play did the ball go over his shoulder and not one play did get make a guy miss in the open field.

Auden Tate is limited. He is an ok receiver but is forced to make circus catches because of his limitations. He is not a guy that is going to catch a quick hitch and take it 10 or 12 yards.  He is not a guy that is gonna get a step on a corner 1 on 1 running a seven eight or nine.

When did WR's have to be able to make guys miss? Here he is running after the catch.

https://www.bengals.com/video/auden-tate-stares-down-defender-after-insane-juke

He is a possession guy who is going to catch the ball and move the chains based on where the ball is caught. No one ever said he was going to be great after the catch, but tons of guys (think Alshon Jeffrey) have had great careers doing that. People for some reason think every receiver should do it all and that just isn't the case. The jump ball receiver is not dead the public though has fallen in love with the YAC guy though. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-21-2020, 09:11 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Tate missed the entirety of 4 games and significant parts of 3 others. If you project out these stats over a 16 game season (adding a conservative 5 games of missed production) they look like this... 54 catches, 815 yards.

I think Tate can be an okay #3, or a good #4. There's a spot for him on that roster.

That said, didn't we already learn our lesson with this "projected over 16 games" practice and Mohamed Sanu/Bernard Scott/Carlos Dunlap/Carl Lawson/many more?

- - - - - - - -
Sanu his rookie year had 4 TDs in a 3 game stretch to end the season and everyone was all fired up about how that'd translate into an unstoppable TD monster in a 16 game season. He started 14 games the next year and got 2 TD.

Bernard Scott had 4.9 YPC on 61 carries in 2010 and people thought "how great would it be if he got more carries?"... and then he got 112 the next year at 3.4 YPC.

Carlos Dunlap had 9.5 sacks his rookie year in very limited playing time and everyone was talking about how many sacks he'd get with more opportunity. Turns out he got more opportunity yet didn't match or beat his 9.5 sack season until 5 years later, and it still remains the 2nd most sacks he's had in a year.

You can pretty much copy-paste Dunlap's bit and just change the name to Lawson. 8.5 sacks in his rookie season in very limited playing time, 6 sacks in the 2 years since.

- - - - - - - - - -

Anquan Boldin was a 2nd round pick despite his 40 time, and caught nearly 1,400 yards his rookie season with 3 TDs of 50+ yards. I would hardly put his name in the same sentence as Auden Tate. 16 game projection or not.

He'll go up and get a ball but he won't get separation, he won't make guys miss, and he won't take it to the house. I don't see him being anything more than a #3 on a bad team or a #4 on a good team.

[impactplaya]

(01-22-2020, 03:49 PM)Synric Wrote: Here is Auden Tate's highlights: http://www.nfl.com/videos/cincinnati-bengals/0ap3000001095352/Auden-Tate-highlights-2019-season

What is missing? Not one play did the ball go over his shoulder and not one play did get make a guy miss in the open field.

Auden Tate is limited. He is an ok receiver but is forced to make circus catches because of his limitations. He is not a guy that is going to conaistently catch a quick hitch and take it 10 or 12 yards.  He is not a guy that is gonna get a step on a corner 1 on 1 running a seven eight or nine.

Tate wasnt expected to make the final 53 this much less 
14.1 yds per catch 
He was a,bright spot in a offense that didn't find a identity 
Until the last 2,weeks of the season.
How many players on this offense actually progressed 
In 2019. ?
Tate made the most of his snaps trust me. 
He was limited by poor QB play. Poor schemes. Poor execution around him 

[WhodeyRay]

I think with a half way decent OC Tate could be a nightmare. You use him like a pass catching TE. Not saying move him to TE but line him up close to the line in the slot like Kittle or even a pre broken Eifert was and we have an advantage.

[SunsetBengal]

Personally, I like Auden Tate. Make no mistake, he'll never be the one "taking the top off of the defense", by any stretch. What he is, is a damn good possession receiver with great hands, body control, and a large target. He could be even more of a weapon, if used properly. Imagine Tate being able to catch a ball in the deep middle, just behind the LBs, a ball thrown in a place where Tate can actually catch it and proceed with some momentum. That guy could absolutely truck some DBs, in those sorts of situations.

[fredtoast]

(01-22-2020, 03:55 PM)Au165 Wrote: He is a possession guy who is going to catch the ball and move the chains based on where the ball is caught.

Not really.

Last year there were 104 NFL players with at least 40 receptions.

Of those 104 Auden Tate ranked 104th in catch percentage (50%).  And you can't blame it on the QB because our other receivers had much higher catch percentages.

He just can't get open and make the catch on a consistent basis.

[Whatever]

(01-22-2020, 03:20 PM)Au165 Wrote: What does the team record have to do with anything? We are talking about the importance, or in reality lack of importance, of separation. Nothing you said in regards to trying to explain away guys stats has any relation to how effective a guy can be with little separation. You want to act as though there is some tie in with records so let's compare Hill (Best receiver in Super Bowl) versus Golladay (Least separation of anyone in the league).

Tyreek Hill on a Super Bowl playing team, In 12 games 89 Targets 58 receptions 860 yards 7 TD's
Kenny Golladay on a bad team, In 16 games 119 Targets 65 receptions 1190 yards 11 TD's

By your logic the Chiefs shouldn't be good because they force the ball too much to Hill, or the Lions should be better because 7.4 targets a game isn't forcing it. The reality is there is no causation in terms of #1 WR targets and winning. Julio Jones is on this list, Julio Freaking Jones. Julio Jones is considered a great WR and a 4.39 40 guys and he get's less separation than Tate yet we are somehow going to pretend like separation is a big deal?

Just stop with the nonsense. That list is littered with really good WR's that had I not shown you the list and asked if the WR's were good, or if they could get separation, everyone here would say "heck yea, we'd love to have those guys!". Tate may not be a superstar but we don't have to make up reasons to hate on the guy. He performed well when give a chance and I'd expect he will have more opputunity next season.

Ok, first off, don't comp a guy that hasn't had a single 40+ yard catch in his NFL career to a guy who tied for the league lead with 8 this year and tell others to "Just stop with the nonsense.". Tate is not Mike Williams.  His ceiling is not Mike Williams.  He simply doesn't have the physical tools Williams does and will never be near the deep threat.  

Second, I see you either didn't see or ignored my statement about a lot of these guys facing constant double teams.  When Julio Jones goes to bed at night, there's a CB sitting on his footlocker and a S on his headboard.  It's a lot harder to get seperation when you're working against double teams.  

Tyreek Hill gets plenty of seperation and he's tied for 6th in the league in 40+ yard catches.  It's not forcing it if he's open, especially when he can take it to the house.  

Can a guy be productive without getting consistent seperation?  Sure.  Let's look at the guys on your list again.  Brown and Williams are tied for the league lead in 40+ yard catches with 8.  Parker is tied for 4th with 7.  Golladay is tied for 6th with 6.  Gallup is tied for 10th with 5.  Julio, McLaurin, Slayton, and Golden Tate are tied for 21st with 3.  Robby Anderson has 2.  Robinson has 1.  Auden Tate has 0.

Let's look at 20+ yard catches next.  Golladay is 2nd with 22.  Julio and Parker are tied for 3rd with 21.  Gallup is tied for 8th with 18.  Mike Williams is tied for 10th with 17.  Brown, McLaurin, and Robinson are tied for 21st with 15.  Robby Anderson has 13.  Slayton has 12.  Golden Tate has 10.  Auden Tate has 8.

So, double teams or not, you can be productive without getting a ton of seperation IF you can get big chunk plays.  Problem is, Tate isn't good at getting big chunk plays due to his lack of speed.  

Is he a bum who should be cut?  No.  However he lacks the speed to be effective deep and the short area quickness for a lot of short routes.  That means his effective route tree is limited by his lack of physical talent.  He has some utility as a chain mover, particularly in the 2 minute drill against soft zone, but as I said earlier, he is not a guy you want seeing 80 targets a year like he did this year.  

[Bengalitis]

Get a 7' receiver to get our first downs. Jump ball it every time. Thanks.

[jfkbengals]

(01-22-2020, 09:05 AM)Au165 Wrote: I went into a bunch of advanced stats on this topic last time so I'll avoid doing that again for the most part. The summation of my stance based on those stats was Tate suffered from a lot of uncatchable balls and poor ball placement. He was top 20 in the league in contested catch percentage so he makes the most out of it, but no one of the team was thrown more uncatchable balls. For some reason even when he'd run a slant and he has the CB shielded off Dalton either thew it way behind him (Bills) or way in front where he has to dive (Baltimore), he very rarely got a chance at a ball in stride.

People came back and countered with separation, blah blah. He got more separation than Mike Williams in LA and was better at catching contested balls. The big difference was Williams got thrown FAR more catchable passes. Overall I think Mike Williams is a really fair comparison on what Tate probably can be with improved QB play and more opportunity. 

That kinda sounds like being on the wrong page with the QB as far as the expected route versus a coverage.