Free Agency expectations?

[Catmandude123]

(03-11-2020, 03:25 PM)BrownAssClown Wrote:  Dalton can't be sacked if he already has thrown the ball.

 Or in the fetal position.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-11-2020, 03:45 PM)BrownAssClown Wrote: ...and if the Bengals "roll" with this line minus Cordy Glenn, I'll ask for the list of most sacks and HURRIES allowed by line. Better hope Burrow has a good 3 step drop and fast release, he's gonna need it.

What is nice is Burrow does have a quick release, he is just not predictable with it like Dalton was.

Dalton had to of led the NFL in tipped passes at the Line over the years. The D-line knew Dalton was just going to do a quick 
drop back and get rid of the ball quickly with the bad O-line. Burrow can pump fake better than Dalton and knows how to move
a pocket so this will help regardless if Hart is the RT or not.

If I was the FO I would sign Glasgow to be the LG in FA, get a Linebacker and Draft an OT like Josh Jones or Isaiah Wilson.

If we did this and had an honest competition for RT I would be good. If Hart wins out, so be it and he has improved even more
than he did last year. If not we have our RT and LT of the future getting their feet wet and Burrow as the QB of the future.

[fredtoast]

(03-11-2020, 05:28 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Dalton had to of led the NFL in tipped passes at the Line over the years.

No he did not.  This is a perfect example of a message board myth that a lot of people believe.

I don't have all the numbers.  All I have are the top ten for each season from '14 through '18, but it is pretty clear that Dalton is not among the league leaders in tipped passes.

'14 played 16 games and did not finish in the top ten.  The most he could have had was 11 which would be about half of the league leaders (Tannehill 20, Bortles 19) but I have no idea if he had anything close to 11.
'15 played 13 games and finished in a 4 way tie for 9th with 10 tipped passes. Again half of the league leaders (Bortles 21, Fitzpatrick 20, Ryan 19)
'16 played 16 games and finished tied for 6th with 14.  Bortles had 21 to lead the league.
'17 played 16 games and finished in 2 way tie for 8th with 10.  Again about half of the league leader (Stafford 19)
'18 played 11 games and did not finish in top 10.

There is no way I can come up with who multi-year totals, but even when Dalton played a full season there were usually other QBs having TWICE as many passes tipped as him.  He has never even been close to leading the league.  His highest total was 14 and over that 5 year span other QBs had that many or more 25 times.  

When fans watch every game of their favorite team they obviously see their own team have the same problem more than anyone else.  Fans see the same Bengals get beat in coverage; give up a sack; miss a tackle; or get their pass tipped over and over again.  So they think those players are the worst.  But if they watched every game of every team they would see other players from other teams make those same mistakes just as often, if not more, than the Bengal players.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-11-2020, 06:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No he did not.  This is a perfect example of a message board myth that everyone believes based on their "eyeball test".

I don't have all the numbers.  All I have are the top ten for each season from '14 through '18, but it is pretty clear that Dalton is not among the league leaders in tipped passes.

'14 played 16 games and did not finish in the top ten.  The most he could have had was 11 which would be about half of the league leaders (Tannehill 20, Bortles 19) but I have no idea if he had anything close to 11.
'15 played 13 games and finished in a 4 way tie for 9th with 10 tipped passes. Again half of the league leaders (Bortles 21, Fitzpatrick 20, Ryan 19)
'16 played 16 games and finished tied for 6th with 14.  Bortles had 21 to lead the league.
'17 played 16 games and finished in 2 way tie for 8th with 10.  Again about half of the league leader (Stafford 19)
'18 played 11 games and did not finish in top 10.

There is no way I can come up with who multi-year totals, but even when Dalton played a full season there were usually other QBs having TWICE as many passes tipped as him.  He has never even been close to leading the league.  His highest total was 14 and over that 5 year span other QBs had that many or more 25 times.  Yet all the message board experts claim he is the worst in the league based on the "eyeball test".  

Thanks for this, surprised honestly. Never meant to offend, but yeah, I thought he would of been higher in this stat from 
what I saw. No need to cut me down Freddy boy, just saying that it was predictable with the quick drop back passes at 
times and D-lineman would just have to get a hand up. With a better O-line and more pump fakes and better maneuvering
the pocket by the QB the tipped passes would go down.

[phil413]

(03-10-2020, 03:40 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: What I hope they do:

1. Franchise Tag AJ Green

2. Re-sign Dennard

3. Re-sign Billings

4. Trade Andy Dalton for either a 3rd round pick (or more) or exchange a 4th or 5th for a 2nd (keep the pick if you can).

5. Cut Glenn. I don't think he has any trade value.

6. Cut Dre Kirkpatrick. He's overrated, overpaid and potentially wouldn't even be a starter in 2020 with Phillips really showing value at the end of the year. If he is willing to re-sign for a pay cut, I entertain keeping him as the #4 CB.

7. With all that money freed up from the last 3 bullet points, sign at least one of the following free agents:
Corey Littleton
Joe Shobert
Joe Thuney
Anthony Castonzo
Jack Conklin
Bryan Bulaga

8. Based on who they sign from the above, sign at least one of the following free agents (take OL if first FA is LB, take LB if first FA is OL).
Blake Martinez
Nick Kwiatkoski
Kelvin Beachum
Danny Trevathan
Graham Glasgow

9. For the draft, grab Joe Burrow

10. and then go BPA for the entire draft, except for QB and RB.


What I expect they'll do:


Maybe 1, 3, 4, 5, 8 and 9.

This is pretty solid.  Bring in the Ohio players Joe Thuney (Centerville) and Trevathan (Youngstown) and keep Vigil.  

With all of the above, it opens up the draft for BPA. 

[fredtoast]

(03-11-2020, 06:47 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote:  No need to cut me down Freddy boy, 

Yeah, I'll edit.

[sandwedge]

(03-11-2020, 03:39 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I wish we would go out and get Conklin and Glasgow but I doubt that happens. I think this would be the only way we wouldn't 
have Hart starting this season, if we added Conklin. But he is the top tier OT out there, he will command a lot of dough, doubt 
this happens. Need to draft a OT somewhat early i think. My Mock that I used on TDN had Bartch falling to the 4th and Jon 
Runyan falling to the 7th which isn't going to happen IMO.

What is nice is it a very deep draft for Inside O-lineman. Could get a very good one in the mid rounds.

I read an article on NFL.com about this crop of FA that will be grossly overpaid and Conklins name was on the list. I honestly don't think I have seen the guy play, so I wouldn't know honestly.

[sandwedge]

(03-11-2020, 05:12 PM)Catmandude123 Wrote:  Or in the fetal position.

Honestly though, I don't remember to many times Andy didn't stand in there and take a good belt as he was throwing the ball.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-11-2020, 07:22 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Yeah, I'll edit.

Hell, even Burrow made mistakes last season in the best season of all time in college by a QB. You are right, when you focus on 
just your team you can become over critical. Just hoping we can get this O-line to be top notch for Burrow down the road instead
of just relying on our QB to have a quick release.

(03-11-2020, 07:34 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I read an article on NFL.com about this crop of FA that will be grossly overpaid and Conklins name was on the list. I honestly don't think I have seen the guy play, so I wouldn't know honestly.

He is good, but he will be really spendy no question. Think our best bet is to go after Glasgow or Feiler in FA if we want an OL.

These Guards would be cheaper and we could afford to get a LB as well. The one thing that makes me think it would be worth it
with Conklin is how deep the Draft is with interior O-lineman.

[SunsetBengal]

(03-11-2020, 01:44 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Why not

There were 64 players that started at least 8 games as an OT last year and played at least 500 snaps.  If you look at snaps per (sacks allowed + holding penalties) Hart ranked 13th among those 64.  He also ranked 25th in sacks per snap. 

So, by what I'm reading here, I'm interpreting it as "Bobby Hart should have held more last season, and it would have improved his sacks/snap ratio".

[jfkbengals]

(03-10-2020, 02:18 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: We've heard some talk recently that the Bengals might be more active in free agency this year, and in the latest Hobspn's choice, Hob's had this to say concerning free agency:

'I think the Bengals are readying to duel. Too many lights on too late in the night at PBS for me to think otherwise.'

'My sense is they're looking to acquire more new blood via free agency.'

So, what are you expecting? Is this the year that the Bengals actually sign a upper tier player? Do they sign some mid level guys to shore up the roster? Or, will we just see more Webb and Wynn type signings?

Player movement around the NFL

[fredtoast]

(03-11-2020, 08:02 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: So, by what I'm reading here, I'm interpreting it as "Bobby Hart should have held more last season, and it would have improved his sacks/snap ratio".

That is why the ranking in "(sacks + holding) per snap" is a more accurate measure than just "sacks per snap".

And in that more accurate measure Hart was 13th among 64 starting OTs.

[SunsetBengal]

(03-11-2020, 08:38 PM)fredtoast Wrote: That is why the ranking in "(sacks + holding) per snap" is a more accurate measure than just "sacks per snap".

And in that more accurate measure Hart was 13th among 64 starting OTs.

If Bobby Hart can improve his performance from last season to this one, at the same ration that he did from '18 to '19, he will more than win my respect.  I think that I'm one of the few that actually believes that he can get there.  If the Bengals put a mean-ass mauler between Hart and Hopkins?  That rushing attack would be fantastic.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-11-2020, 08:55 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: If Bobby Hart can improve his performance from last season to this one, at the same ration that he did from '18 to '19, he will more than win my respect.  I think that I'm one of the few that actually believes that he can get there.  If the Bengals put a mean-ass mauler between Hart and Hopkins?  That rushing attack would be fantastic.

Agreed, we all want Hart to be great don't we? BTW, who do you want as that mean ass mauler Sunset?

[SunsetBengal]

(03-11-2020, 09:00 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Agreed, we all want Hart to be great don't we? BTW, who do you want as that mean ass mauler Sunset?

There are plenty out there, both free agents and incoming rookies.  I think that by naming names of potential free agents, or incoming rookies, pins ones hopes too closely to a narrow range of prospects when in reality there are plenty of great or future greats out there that we've never even considered as such.

I'll give you one such example of what I'm talking about. Allejandro Villanueva of the Steelers. He was a gawky looking, beanpole kid playing WR for Army. Who ever thought that he would grow into the massive, dominating force that he did? Those guys are out there, we've just lost our edge on finding them.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-11-2020, 09:20 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: There are plenty out there, both free agents and incoming rookies.  I think that by naming names of potential free agents, or incoming rookies, pins ones hopes too closely to a narrow range of prospects when in reality there are plenty of great or future greats out there that we've never even considered as such.

Yeah I just like to put names out there lol 

[Circleville Guy]

(03-11-2020, 08:55 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: If Bobby Hart can improve his performance from last season to this one, at the same ration that he did from '18 to '19, he will more than win my respect.  I think that I'm one of the few that actually believes that he can get there.  If the Bengals put a mean-ass mauler between Hart and Hopkins?  That rushing attack would be fantastic.

I thought that Hart rated terrible in the run game? I may be off, I’m more focused on baseball right now.

[SunsetBengal]

(03-11-2020, 10:22 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: I thought that Hart rated terrible in the run game? I may be off, I’m more focused on baseball right now.

Hart don't have to be great, that's the point.  If you put a really strong, drive blocking Guard between him and Hopkins, it will cure a lot of ills and make the entire group better.  By and large, good Guards are cheaper than top end Tackles.  Besides, I follow the philosophy that you build a line from the inside outward.  If you have a good Center and strong set of Guards, you can get by with average Tackles, and still run the ball well on the interior, thus opening up a lot of options to keep the Tackles from constantly being "on their heels".

[fredtoast]

(03-11-2020, 10:22 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: I thought that Hart rated terrible in the run game? 

Th first half of the season our run game was not just bad it was historically bad.  So I am sure the entire line graded poorly in run blocking, but there was a huge improvement over the last half of the season.

[*Synric*]

Hobspin with his yearly free agency article saying the Bengals have 25mil earmarked for free agents.

https://www.bengals.com/news/bengals-get-ready-for-nfl-s-new-year
https://bengalswire.usatoday.com/2020/03/14/how-cincinnati-bengals-plan-to-use-cap-space-2020-nfl-free-agency/amp/?__twitter_impression=true