Free Agency expectations?

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

My expectation is the team will sale franchising AJ Green as their big free agency splash.

[Circleville Guy]

(03-16-2020, 09:02 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: My expectation is the team will sale franchising AJ Green as their big free agency splash.

It’s the laziest and most risky move, so yes.

[SunsetBengal]

Ok, what I'm about to do here will amuse some, and likely piss off some others, but here goes.

A team starts out with $198.2M in total salary cap for this season, correct?

The new NFL minimum, for guys on rookie contracts is $675K, correct? According to last year's stats, 65% of players were on minimum deals (obviously not all on rookie contracts) But, for the sake of arguments, let's assume they are all on rookie minimum deals. The new roster limit it 55, so 65% of 55 players is just under 36, so we'll use 36 as our number. 36 players x $675k = $24.3M, so add to that number the amount of AJ Greens franchise tag, $17.8M, and you get a total of $42.1M. So far so good. Then add the estimated $11M for the rookie salary pool, and now were up to $53.1 already spoken for, leaving a whopping $145.1M to spread out over the remaining 19 players that make up the nucleus of your team.

But hey, we have a couple of stars on the defense who make good money.. So, subtract Carlos and Geno's cap hits ($25.2M total) from the total, taking us down to now $119.2M to be spread over 17 starter quality players, leaving an average of $7.05M to spend on each of 17 players that will make up your starting lineup.

Welp, then we have Tyler Boyd's $8.05M cap hit, now down to $111.85M to spread over 16 players, now down to an average of $6.99M left to spend on each of the remaining players.

Oh, and WJ III is going to cost $9.95M this year, so now down to $101.1M to spread over 15 players, leaving an average of $6.74M per player to spend. Still thinking that you can make a star studded lineup with that remaining money? Don't forget, you need starter quality players at all of those positions..


Obviously, the numbers work out just a little differently than what I laid out, but you definitely get the idea. Cap management isn't quite as clear cut and easy as one might think it is. The Bengals generally honor their contracts, and new cap guidelines are forcing more teams to go the way of the Bengals. If the Bengals end up adding 2 quality free agents this year, it will be a win for both the team and the fans.

[RunKijanaRun]

God forbid there be a degree of difficulty to it. “Free Agency was hard, so we quit.”

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-16-2020, 09:02 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: My expectation is the team will sale franchising AJ Green as their big free agency splash.

"Jonah Williams coming back is just like signing a starting LT!"   


(A variant on the classic "1st round pick did nothing/got hurt, so for year 2 it's like having an extra 1st round pick!" Bengals trope.)

[BengalsRocker]

(03-16-2020, 09:34 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Ok, what I'm about to do here will amuse some, and likely piss off some others, but here goes.

A team starts out with $198.2M in total salary cap for this season, correct?

The new NFL minimum, for guys on rookie contracts is $675K, correct?  According to last year's stats, 65% of players were on minimum deals (obviously not all on rookie contracts)  But, for the sake of arguments, let's assume they are all on rookie minimum deals.  The new roster limit it 55, so 65% of 55 players is just under 36, so we'll use 36 as our number.  36 players x $675k = $24.3M, so add to that number the amount of AJ Greens franchise tag, $17.8M, and you get a total of $42.1M.  So far so good.  Then add the estimated $11M for the rookie salary pool, and now were up to $53.1 already spoken for, leaving a whopping $145.1M to spread out over the remaining 19 players that make up the nucleus of your team.

But hey, we have a couple of stars on the defense who make good money..  So, subtract Carlos and Geno's cap hits ($25.2M total) from the total, taking us down to now $119.2M to be spread over 17 starter quality players, leaving an average of $7.05M to spend on each of 17 players that will make up your starting lineup.

Welp, then we have Tyler Boyd's $8.05M cap hit, now down to $111.85M to spread over 16 players, now down to an average of $6.99M left to spend on each of the remaining players.

Oh, and WJ III is going to cost $9.95M this year, so now down to $101.1M to spread over 15 players, leaving an average of $6.74M per player to spend.  Still thinking that you can make a star studded lineup with that remaining money?  Don't forget, you need starter quality players at all of those positions..


Obviously, the numbers work out just a little differently than what I laid out, but you definitely get the idea.  Cap management isn't quite as clear cut and easy as one might think it is.  The Bengals generally honor their contracts, and new cap guidelines are forcing more teams to go the way of the Bengals.  If the Bengals end up adding 2 quality free agents this year, it will be a win for both the team and the fans.

That's all well and noted... but how ever does the rest of the league do it?

[SunsetBengal]

(03-16-2020, 09:58 PM)BengalsRocker Wrote: That's all well and noted... but how ever does the rest of the league do it?

I don't know.  Pull out your calculator and do some work, then maybe you can tell me how they pull it off?

[Hoofhearted]

(03-16-2020, 09:58 PM)BengalsRocker Wrote: That's all well and noted... but how ever does the rest of the league do it?

They take risks that we don’t want to. Plus, we’re an instant gratification kinda society, so that probably plays a small part in it. People are already losing their mind over this like it’s something new (while being the first day to boot). It’s how they operate, always has been, always will be.

[J24]

(03-16-2020, 09:58 PM)BengalsRocker Wrote: That's all well and noted... but how ever does the rest of the league do it?

(03-16-2020, 10:21 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I don't know.  Pull out your calculator and do some work, then maybe you can tell me how they pull it off?

They cut/trade players they know won't be on the roster last season.
Dalton has 16 or 17 million 
Dre Kirkpatrick that's 9 million in cap savings if they designate it as June first cut.

[*Nately120*]

(03-16-2020, 10:35 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: They take risks that we don’t want to. Plus, we’re an instant gratification kinda society, so that probably plays a small part in it. People are already losing their mind over this like it’s something new (while being the first day to boot). It’s how they operate, always has been, always will be.

We haven't had a winning season since 2015 so it's hard to label frustrated Bengals fans as wanting instant anything.  

Not saying the path to glory lies in flashy day 1 FA stuff, but the slow and steady stuff played better when we were winning. 

[SunsetBengal]

(03-16-2020, 10:58 PM)J24 Wrote: They cut/trade players they know won't be on the roster last season.
Dalton has 16 or 17 million 
Dre Kirkpatrick that's 9 million in cap savings if they designate it as June first cut.

Well, they'll gain just over $8M in usable money by cutting Dre, but..  Do you think that they can find an equal or better replacement with that $8.1M?  Doubtfully..

People are going apeshit over what average LBs and OL are getting today, just wait until the CB market gets set.

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

I completely expected this but I'm still disappointed lol

[Luvnit2]

(03-16-2020, 09:34 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Ok, what I'm about to do here will amuse some, and likely piss off some others, but here goes.

A team starts out with $198.2M in total salary cap for this season, correct?

The new NFL minimum, for guys on rookie contracts is $675K, correct?  According to last year's stats, 65% of players were on minimum deals (obviously not all on rookie contracts)  But, for the sake of arguments, let's assume they are all on rookie minimum deals.  The new roster limit it 55, so 65% of 55 players is just under 36, so we'll use 36 as our number.  36 players x $675k = $24.3M, so add to that number the amount of AJ Greens franchise tag, $17.8M, and you get a total of $42.1M.  So far so good.  Then add the estimated $11M for the rookie salary pool, and now were up to $53.1 already spoken for, leaving a whopping $145.1M to spread out over the remaining 19 players that make up the nucleus of your team.

But hey, we have a couple of stars on the defense who make good money..  So, subtract Carlos and Geno's cap hits ($25.2M total) from the total, taking us down to now $119.2M to be spread over 17 starter quality players, leaving an average of $7.05M to spend on each of 17 players that will make up your starting lineup.

Welp, then we have Tyler Boyd's $8.05M cap hit, now down to $111.85M to spread over 16 players, now down to an average of $6.99M left to spend on each of the remaining players.

Oh, and WJ III is going to cost $9.95M this year, so now down to $101.1M to spread over 15 players, leaving an average of $6.74M per player to spend.  Still thinking that you can make a star studded lineup with that remaining money?  Don't forget, you need starter quality players at all of those positions..


Obviously, the numbers work out just a little differently than what I laid out, but you definitely get the idea.  Cap management isn't quite as clear cut and easy as one might think it is.  The Bengals generally honor their contracts, and new cap guidelines are forcing more teams to go the way of the Bengals.  If the Bengals end up adding 2 quality free agents this year, it will be a win for both the team and the fans.

The Bengals rarely cut players for some reason. I think Steelers cut 3 this week for example. They rarely restructure contracts and they have no creativity, no out of box thinking playing it safe always. Result is a boring product and losing team when they also draft average or worse.

[Clark W Griswold]

Unless they shock us and end up with a high impact FA this will be a last place team for sure.
Like another said, they will talk about cap room and signing their own but other teams get very good players without any issues. Bengals had the worst record last year so you have to admit they are one of the least talented teams in the league. So how can they not afford good players yet the team with the best record can? Are they over paying for a bunch of bad players? Probably but they have no idea how to fix the situation. They should have already got rid of Dalton to free up more cap space. By the time he’s gone all of the impact free agents will have signed with other teams but in reality they don’t even need his cap room to sign guys.

There are only 2 reasons they always end up in this situation - they are just too stupid to know how to work the cap or they (falsely) use the cap as an excuse to not sign anyone.

[SunsetBengal]

(03-16-2020, 09:58 PM)BengalsRocker Wrote: That's all well and noted... but how ever does the rest of the league do it?

(03-16-2020, 10:35 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: They take risks that we don’t want to. Plus, we’re an instant gratification kinda society, so that probably plays a small part in it. People are already losing their mind over this like it’s something new (while being the first day to boot). It’s how they operate, always has been, always will be.

(03-16-2020, 10:58 PM)J24 Wrote: They cut/trade players they know won't be on the roster last season.
Dalton has 16 or 17 million 
Dre Kirkpatrick that's 9 million in cap savings if they designate it as June first cut.

(03-16-2020, 11:10 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: The Bengals rarely cut players for some reason. I think Steelers cut 3 this week for example. They rarely restructure contracts and they have no creativity, no out of box thinking playing it safe always. Result is a boring product and losing team when they also draft average or worse.

Everyone wants to be a critic, yet no one wants to present a solution?  C'mon guys, put your brains where your mouths are.  Do like I did, pull out a calculator and a pencil and do some work.  

Tell me who you would cut, and who you would propose replacing that player with that is not only better, but will cost the same or less.

[*Nately120*]

(03-16-2020, 11:23 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Everyone wants to be a critic, yet no one wants to present a solution?  C'mon guys, put your brains where your mouths are.  Do like I did, pull out a calculator and a pencil and do some work.  

Tell me who you would cut, and who you would propose replacing that player with that is not only better, but will cost the same or less.

Our only hope was for Katie to marry an independently successful GM.  She did not. 

[BenZoo2]

(03-16-2020, 11:23 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Everyone wants to be a critic, yet no one wants to present a solution?  C'mon guys, put your brains where your mouths are.  Do like I did, pull out a calculator and a pencil and do some work.  

Tell me who you would cut, and who you would propose replacing that player with that is not only better, but will cost the same or less.

Gladly. Without running the the numbers, and taking into account their historical cheapness, I would cut Glenn (already) gone and Dre and signed Conklin or Glasgow. I want to protect my first round investment. Those moves, at worst, would have broken even and burrow is better protected. The rest is gravy


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SunsetBengal]

(03-16-2020, 11:31 PM)BenZoo2 Wrote: Gladly.  Without running the the numbers, and taking into account their historical cheapness, I would cut Glenn (already) gone and Dre and signed Conklin or Glasgow.  I want to protect my first round investment.  Those moves, at worst, would have broken even and burrow is better protected.  The rest is gravy


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

BenZoo2, I luv you man, but that is a rather lazy response.  You're proposing cutting two starters, to gain one.  Cordy Glenn, who they justifiably already cut, AND cutting a starting CB.  So, the two guys that you mentioned to replace Glenn's roster spot are already gone, and you never even mentioned how you would have replaced a starting CB.

Not to mention how any of this would have worked out, mathematically.  C'mon man, give me something to work with here..

[phil413]

(03-16-2020, 09:47 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: "Jonah Williams coming back is just like signing a starting LT!"   


(A variant on the classic "1st round pick did nothing/got hurt, so for year 2 it's like having an extra 1st round pick!" Bengals trope.)

Seriously though, one of the biggest assumptions is that Williams will come in and be a solid starting LT.  I'd be fine if it were the board assuming, but with the lack of activity I think it's the staff that assumes.  He may have the talent, but he is a young player that may have growing pains.  We don't have time to have Burrow running for his life, no matter if we assume he "can handle it".  They need to get creative with what is left on the market, see if the Raiders will take a 5th for Gabe Jackson to give stability at guard.  

[schroomytunes]

The Bengals will never be a major player the first couple of days, if they do I for one would eat my shorts!!!! What I would still like to see done is this. They know that they will either trade or release Dalton, fine that's a wash with AJ's franchise tag. Second, I'm sure that they would like to extend Mixon and for me cutting Glenn will factor into that. Ok with those deals above done to me I think that they still have the 25 million to spend in FA minus the draft pool/ tenders. What I would like to see next:

1) sign AJ to a 3yr deal like 3/39- It lowers the cap hit by 4 million.

2) sign Tyler Eifert to a 2yr/12million


3) fix the defense through FA draft for offense

-Tahir Whitehead-OLB

-Derek Wolfe-DE/DL rotation

-Karl Joseph-SS

-Tremaine Johnson- CB/Slot

4) Draft

1) Burrow-QB (LSU)

2) Offensive Lineman-BPA

3) Brooks-LB (texas Tech)

4) Pittman-WR (USC)