Jonah Williams Will Upgrade LT

[yellowxdiscipline]

(03-26-2020, 10:17 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: Has Jonah passed a recent physical?  We assume he’s good to go — but is he?

Pretty sure he was good to go around Week 15 last year but they decided to shut him down anyway. Which was the smart move. 

[bengals67]

(03-27-2020, 01:14 PM)fredtoast Wrote:   
This.

Of all the disappointments from the 2019 Bengals Price was the worst for me.  I really thought his rookie struggles were do to recovering from an injury and not being able to lift in the offseason.  I was not even expecting a big Pro Bowl season, but I was expecting him to play a huge roll in improving our offensive line.  But he just stunk it up.

We got basically nothing from 4 of our last 5 first round draft picks (Williams, Price, Ross, Ogbuehi).  That kills a team like the Bengals who live by the draft.

:andy: :andy: :andy:

But why did they waste a first round pick on any of these guys. No other team would have taken the injured Ross as high as Bengals and no one else would have taken the other three in first round. Then there is Sample, who might turn into a decent player but who never should have been picked in second round.

Seems to me with these picks the Bengals gambled that these players would turn into bargains as opposed to taking players with pre-draft grade that justified their selection.

Put all of Price's qualities on a board and never take someone like him again in first four rounds.

[Bilbo Saggins]

(03-27-2020, 01:14 PM)fredtoast Wrote: We got basically nothing from 4 of our last 5 first round draft picks (Williams, Price, Ross, Ogbuehi).  That kills a team like the Bengals who live by the draft.

Williams - Short stubby arms for a tackle.  Probably shouldn't have passed a physical prior to being drafted.
Price - Short stubby arms for an IOL.  Injured himself benching at the combine.  Didn't pass a physical prior to being drafted.
Ross - Undersized, finesse player who was chronically injured and was shifted around to CB in college.  Played hardly any snaps at WR in college.  Had hardly any production at WR in college.  Did absolutely nothing of note aside from passing the Al Davis test at the combine.
Ogbuehi - Light, finesse player who was a consensus third or fourth round prospect.  Was injured when drafted.  Didn't pass a physical prior to being drafted.

I'm noticing a pattern.  The Bengals have made horrible decisions in the first round as of late.  It's as if they're going out of their way to draft injured, finesse dudes who have little to no production and/or underwhelming measurables.  They like o-line players with short stubby arms and absolutely no grit to hold up to pro level power.  Gee, should they keep trying to build a team by taking injured, finesse dudes who have underwhelming measurables/poor college production?  Is this a good idea?

(03-29-2020, 10:38 AM)bengals67 Wrote: :andy: :andy: :andy:

But why did they waste a first round pick on any of these guys. No other team would have taken the injured Ross as high as Bengals and no one else would have taken the other three in first round. Then there is Sample, who might turn into a decent player but who never should have been picked in second round.

Seems to me with these picks the Bengals gambled that these players would turn into bargains as opposed to taking players with pre-draft grade that justified their selection.

Put all of Price's qualities on a board and never take someone like him again in first four rounds.

No other team out of 32 would have hired a one year wonder at QB coach to be HC just because he was once an OC(an extremely underachieving OC) at a nearby college.  No other team in the league is so comfortable making wretched decisions and sticking by them for a decade.  Good luck to the Browns should they ever try to haul the team out of Cincinnati.  No other city in the world will be willing to subsidize such a joke.  

[SunsetBengal]

(03-29-2020, 10:45 AM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: Williams - Short stubby arms for a tackle.  Probably shouldn't have passed a physical prior to being drafted.
Price - Short stubby arms for an IOL. 

A study was performed, and found to show almost no correlation between arm length and an OL's ability to perform effectively.

https://www.pff.com/news/does-arm-length-affect-ot-play

Quote:In this figure, I’ve included the PFF data of every offensive tackle that played over 25% of his team’s snaps in any season from 2010-2012 whose arm length I could find online. I’ve also plotted the data as PFF grade per 500 snaps so that guys with different amounts of snaps are directly comparable. With a linear fit, we actually see a negative correlation, where guys with longer arms perform worse in general. But as you can see from the R-squared value on the chart (1.00 is perfect, 0 means there is no correlation), the fit is pretty terrible, so there’s essentially no direct correlation between arm length and performance. Another interesting thing that you'll note is that about half of qualified tackles in the NFL have arms that are 34 inches or shorter. So not only are “short” arms not necessarily a disadvantage, but they're also not uncommon.

[Sled21]

(03-29-2020, 11:25 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: A study was performed, and found to show almost no correlation between arm length and an OL's ability to perform effectively.

https://www.pff.com/news/does-arm-length-affect-ot-play

It only makes sense that your center of power comes from the core, and the longer the arm stretches out the weaker it is. A good tackle or guard is good because they can stay in front of the defender, not because they have "reach." A fully extended arm is going to stop squat.

[Bilbo Saggins]

(03-29-2020, 11:25 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: A study was performed, and found to show almost no correlation between arm length and an OL's ability to perform effectively.

https://www.pff.com/news/does-arm-length-affect-ot-play

Regarding PFF's grades as validation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsnGpduRy18

You may have a point as far as arm length being overrated, but just look at these two charts relating to OL measurables and player comparisons.  Look at these two charts and ask yourself this question: are these guys really the kind of premium athletes who warrant first round consideration?  How about first round consideration ON TOP OF BEING INJURED?

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/billy-price?position=IOL
https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/jonah-williams
Are there any listed player comparisons that inspire confidence in either of these guys ever being able to be good pros based upon their measurables alone?  If no other player in the modern history of the league with a similar athletic profile has been able to have elite success, why then would anyone expect them to be the first to ever do so?  Is that logical?  

[masonbengals fan]

(03-29-2020, 10:38 AM)bengals67 Wrote: :andy: :andy: :andy:

But why did they waste a first round pick on any of these guys. No other team would have taken the injured Ross as high as Bengals and no one else would have taken the other three in first round. Then there is Sample, who might turn into a decent player but who never should have been picked in second round.

Seems to me with these picks the Bengals gambled that these players would turn into bargains as opposed to taking players with pre-draft grade that justified their selection.

Put all of Price's qualities on a board and never take someone like him again in first four rounds.

 Jonah would be a 1st rounder any year. 

[fredtoast]

(03-29-2020, 11:43 AM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote:   If no other player in the modern history of the league with a similar athletic profile has been able to have elite success, why then would anyone expect them to be the first to ever do so?  Is that logical?  

How cute.  Bilbo thinks draft analysis should not include watching players perform in actual football games.

[TheSweetness]

(03-29-2020, 11:43 AM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: Regarding PFF's grades as validation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsnGpduRy18

You may have a point as far as arm length being overrated, but just look at these two charts relating to OL measurables and player comparisons.  Look at these two charts and ask yourself this question: are these guys really the kind of premium athletes who warrant first round consideration?  How about first round consideration ON TOP OF BEING INJURED?

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/billy-price?position=IOL
https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/jonah-williams
Are there any listed player comparisons that inspire confidence in either of these guys ever being able to be good pros based upon their measurables alone?  If no other player in the modern history of the league with a similar athletic profile has been able to have elite success, why then would anyone expect them to be the first to ever do so?  Is that logical?  

But in your post about Ross being the worst player ever and doing nothing in college (not true) you basically said combine doesn't matter. But now it does? For Jonah apparently it's his measurable that matter and not that his play indicated he was one of the best OL. 

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/tom-brady He turned our okay didn't he? Who are those names?

Or him https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/chad-johnson

This guy simply HAD to be destined for greatness https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/stephen-hill

[fredtoast]

(03-29-2020, 10:45 AM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: Williams - Short stubby arms for a tackle.  Probably shouldn't have passed a physical prior to being drafted.
Price - Short stubby arms for an IOL.  Injured himself benching at the combine.  Didn't pass a physical prior to being drafted.
Ross - Undersized, finesse player who was chronically injured and was shifted around to CB in college.  Played hardly any snaps at WR in college.  Had hardly any production at WR in college.  Did absolutely nothing of note aside from passing the Al Davis test at the combine.
Ogbuehi - Light, finesse player who was a consensus third or fourth round prospect.  Was injured when drafted.  Didn't pass a physical prior to being drafted.

I'm noticing a pattern. 

The only pattern I am noticing is you making up bull shit out of thin air and claiming it is true.
Williams has longer arms that Pro Bowl OT Jake Mathews.
Ross....Amazing that he was able to catch 81 passes for 17 tds in 2016 while "playing hardly any snaps at WR"
Ogbuehi was not a "Consensus 3rd or 4th round prospect"  That is 100% make believe troll talk.

This is weaksauce even for you Bilbo.

[Bilbo Saggins]

(03-29-2020, 12:22 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The only pattern I am noticing is you making up bull shit out of thin air and claiming it is true.
Williams has longer arms that Pro Bowl OT Jake Mathews.
Ross....Amazing that he was able to catch 81 passes for 17 tds in 2016 while "playing hardly any snaps at WR"
Ogbuehi was not a "Consensus 3rd or 4th round prospect"  That is 100% make believe troll talk.

This is weaksauce even for you Bilbo.

Fact: They all had injury problems. Even if 0% of the rest is accurate, they all had injury problems. All of them. 
Fact: Williams has underwhelming measurables for an OT according to the chart that I had linked. The player comps who had similar measurables weren't elite players.
Fact: Ross didn't have good WR production by first round standards.
Fact: There were draft sites that had Ogbuehi graded as a 3rd rounder. In hindsight he should've been a UDFA.

Sure, game tape is valuable. Being able to block college dudes who scrub out of the pros is more impressive than not being able to block them. At some point, the rubber hits the road. A 180lb 5'6 guy isn't going to be an all-pro OT. Maybe taking premium athletes with good production and no injury history is better than taking guys with massive injury red flags, poor production, and/or 5th round measurables? Maybe? Am I nuts?

[Joelist]

(03-29-2020, 12:48 PM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: Fact: They all had injury problems. Even if 0% of the rest is accurate, they all had injury problems. All of them. 
Fact: Williams has underwhelming measurables for an OT according to the chart that I had linked. The player comps who had similar measurables weren't elite players.
Fact: Ross didn't have good WR production by first round standards.
Fact: There were draft sites that had Ogbuehi graded as a 3rd rounder. In hindsight he should've been a UDFA.

Sure, game tape is valuable. Being able to block college dudes who scrub out of the pros is more impressive than not being able to block them. At some point, the rubber hits the road. A 180lb 5'6 guy isn't going to be an all-pro OT. Maybe taking premium athletes with good production and no injury history is better than taking guys with massive injury red flags, poor production, and/or 5th round measurables? Maybe? Am I nuts?

Actually Williams was a consensus first round pick and some scouts compared him to Joe Thomas. Ogbuehi was generally regarded as second round or low first (ironically Fisher who we took in the second was rated slightly higher). Ross was overdrafted based on the injury history, but no one could anticipate he would be so bad at playing the position. Likewise no one could have guessed the issues with Price. 

Yes we have had issues in the first round but part of it is just bad injury luck (there was nothing ahead of time warning that Williams or Price would be injured). 

[SunsetBengal]

(03-29-2020, 12:48 PM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: Sure, game tape is valuable. Being able to block college dudes who scrub out of the pros is more impressive than not being able to block them. At some point, the rubber hits the road. A 180lb 5'6 guy isn't going to be an all-pro OT. Maybe taking premium athletes with good production and no injury history is better than taking guys with massive injury red flags, poor production, and/or 5th round measurables? Maybe? Am I nuts?

But, the guy we're talking about here, isn't 5'6" 180lbs.  Jonah Williams is 6'4" 302lbs. (or was at the time)  So, he's right in line, size wise for playing OT in the NFL.

You were presented with a study that completely debunks the pile of horseshit that you're trying to stand on as "your reasoning" for not liking a particular player.  In other words to mask your bias against a certain player.  The study you are wanting to dismiss, simply because you don't like who conducted it.  (basically, unfounded source bias)  I'm not even sure if you actually read their study, but they are pretty transparent with their data and methods.  

They studied all NFL OL who played at least 25% of their team's offensive snaps in a season.  They found NO correlation between arm length, and a players ability to perform at the NFL level.

[TheSweetness]

(03-29-2020, 12:48 PM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: Fact: They all had injury problems. Even if 0% of the rest is accurate, they all had injury problems. All of them. 
Fact: Williams has underwhelming measurables for an OT according to the chart that I had linked. The player comps who had similar measurables weren't elite players.
Fact: Ross didn't have good WR production by first round standards.
Fact: There were draft sites that had Ogbuehi graded as a 3rd rounder. In hindsight he should've been a UDFA.

Almost all players have had some injury in their career. Ross put up better numbers in college than Green did in any of his years of college ball. Most sites has Ogbuehi as a 1-2nd round pick. 

I mean I get that the picks so far haven't panned out but your reasoning is just so bad. 

[McC]

(03-29-2020, 01:47 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: But, the guy we're talking about here, isn't 5'6" 180lbs.  Jonah Williams is 6'4" 302lbs. (or was at the time)  So, he's right in line, size wise for playing OT in the NFL.

You were presented with a study that completely debunks the pile of horseshit that you're trying to stand on as "your reasoning" for not liking a particular player.  In other words to mask your bias against a certain player.  The study you are wanting to dismiss, simply because you don't like who conducted it.  (basically, unfounded source bias)  I'm not even sure if you actually read their study, but they are pretty transparent with their data and methods.  

They studied all NFL OL who played at least 25% of their team's offensive snaps in a season.  They found NO correlation between arm length, and a players ability to perform at the NFL level.

Going back and reading pre-draft profiles, the absolute worst thing I see said about him is that he MIGHT be better suited to playing RT.  And even that is a minority opinion.  And even if arm length was a big deal, his arms are less than an inch shorter than ideal.  He compensates for that with outstanding technique and preparation.  

Didn't I read that his arms are the same length as Joe Thomas, the guy who is only the mandatory waiting period away from the HOF?

[SunsetBengal]

(03-29-2020, 02:09 PM)McC Wrote: Going back and reading pre-draft profiles, the absolute worst thing I see said about him is that he MIGHT be better suited to playing RT.  And even that is a minority opinion.  And even if arm length was a big deal, his arms are less than an inch shorter than ideal.  He compensates for that with outstanding technique and preparation.  

Didn't I read that his arms are the same length as Joe Thomas, the guy who is only the mandatory waiting period away from the HOF?

Jonah's arm length is 33.675"  The "ideal" standard is 34", so we're talking about .375", or 3/8".  That is what all the fuss is about..

[McC]

(03-29-2020, 02:14 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Jonah's arm length is 33.675"  The "ideal" standard is 34", so we're talking about .375", or 3/8".  That is what all the fuss is about..

A guy could pick up an extra 3/8" by hanging from a chin up bar an hour a day.

[SunsetBengal]

(03-29-2020, 02:18 PM)McC Wrote: A guy could pick up an extra 3/8" by hanging from a chin up bar an hour a day.

I'm more curious to see him perform with that repaired shoulder, than I care about how long his arms are.  When I had mine fixed, I felt little "shocks" for up to a year and a half later, when I would "stiff arm" things or stick out my arm to break a fall on creek banks and such.  But, I was much, much older when mine was done. (47)

[McC]

(03-29-2020, 02:23 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I'm more curious to see him perform with that repaired shoulder, than I care about how long his arms are.  When I had mine fixed, I felt little "shocks" for up to a year and a half later, when I would "stiff arm" things or stick out my arm to break a fall on creek banks and such.  But, I was much, much older when mine was done. (47)

Sounds like a legit concern.  Hopefully, rehab made it stronger than ever before.

[SunsetBengal]

(03-29-2020, 02:25 PM)McC Wrote: Sounds like a legit concern.  Hopefully, rehab made it stronger than ever before.

Strength came back quickly for me, but the ability to absorb shock took much longer.  But I'm also guessing that his healing rate will be at least double as mine was, age compared.