Burrow's 1st Year Numbers

[EatonFan]

So... just for fun and I'm bored of being shut in....

What do you guys predict? His 1st season as a Bengals starter.

Whatcha got?

I got 22 TDs. 8 INTs. 3500 Yards.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-07-2020, 12:15 AM)EatonFan Wrote: So... just for fun and I'm bored of being shut in....

What do you guys predict? His 1st season as a Bengals starter.

Whatcha got?

I got 22 TDs. 8 INTs. 3500 Yards.

Mayfield put up better numbers than that. In 13 games. So I sure as hell hope it’s more.

[TecmoBengals]

Let's do this.

TD: 29
INT: 9
YARDS: 3909

[EatonFan]

(04-07-2020, 12:22 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Mayfield put up better numbers than that. In 13 games. So I sure as hell hope it’s more.

He likely has top 10 numbers for rookie QBs then...  I hope he does more than this, but I'd take those numbers.

[JSR18]

I don't like to do a lot of prognosticating, but here goes:

33 TDs
6 Ints
4000 YDS

[*psychdoctor*]

Burrow will go:
10-6
27 TD
6 INT
3788 Yards.

He will lead the Bengals to their first playoff win in nearly 3 decades. At least I hope.

[Murdock2420]

If the quarantine from the Corona Virus last too long, his first year numbers will be pretty ugly unless they keep Dalton around. Miss too many workouts and not getting his timing down with his WRs could spell a very bad start to the season. With a shortened off-season and him thrown under center week one, it'll probably look like Sam Darnold and Josh Allen did to start their careers, "seeing ghost out there."

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

3,200 yards
20 TD/13 INT

Awful high expectations in this thread for a rookie on a bad offense with a bad OC.


Top 15 pick QB rookie seasons '18-'19...
Daniel Jones: 3,027 yards/24 TD/12 INT (13 games)
Josh Allen: 2,074 yards/10 TD/12 INT (12 games)
Sam Darnold: 2,865 yards/17 TD/15 INT (13 games)
Kyler Murray: 3,722 yards/20 TD/12 INT (16 games)
Baker Mayfield: 3,725 yards/27 TD/14 INT (14 games)
Dwayne Haskins: 1,365 yards/7 TD/7 INT (9 games)
Josh Rosen: 2,278 yards/11 TD/14 INT (14 games)

Note that the only one to have less than 12 INT is a guy who only played 9 games and still had 7 INT. Even the 13 INT (in 16 games) that I predicted would be a good pace for Burrow's rookie season.

There's just about zero chance that Burrow has only 6 INT this year. People predicting him to have a Dak Prescott-ish season need to remember that Dak Prescott did it with the 2nd ranked rushing offense in the league with a 1st Team All-Pro RB, a 1st Ballot HoF TE, and an OL with at least 3 1st Team All-Pros on it. Burrow will have exactly none of that with him.

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

5200 yards 58 TD 5 Int 16-0 Super Bowl Champion

[Sled21]

Burrow's Bengals:
AJ Green over 1000 yds
Tyler Boyd over 1000 yds
Joe Mixon over 1000 yds.

[Whatever]

(04-07-2020, 12:15 AM)EatonFan Wrote: So... just for fun and I'm bored of being shut in....

What do you guys predict?  His 1st season as a Bengals starter.

Whatcha got?

I got 22 TDs.  8 INTs.  3500 Yards.

Depends on if they get some offensive help in the draft.  If they go into the year with Jordan and Price battling for the LG spot and praying AJ, Ross, and Tate can stay healthy, things could get very ugly.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-07-2020, 05:35 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 3,200 yards
20 TD/13 INT

Awful high expectations in this thread for a rookie on a bad offense with a bad OC.


Top 15 pick QB rookie seasons '18-'19...
Daniel Jones: 3,027 yards/24 TD/12 INT  (13 games)
Josh Allen: 2,074 yards/10 TD/12 INT  (12 games)
Sam Darnold: 2,865 yards/17 TD/15 INT  (13 games)
Kyler Murray: 3,722 yards/20 TD/12 INT  (16 games)
Baker Mayfield: 3,725 yards/27 TD/14 INT  (14 games)
Dwayne Haskins: 1,365 yards/7 TD/7 INT  (9 games)
Josh Rosen: 2,278 yards/11 TD/14 INT  (14 games)

Note that the only one to have less than 12 INT is a guy who only played 9 games and still had 7 INT. Even the 13 INT (in 16 games) that I predicted would be a good pace for Burrow's rookie season.

There's just about zero chance that Burrow has only 6 INT this year. People predicting him to have a Dak Prescott-ish season need to remember that Dak Prescott did it with the 2nd ranked rushing offense in the league with a 1st Team All-Pro RB, a 1st Ballot HoF TE, and an OL with at least 3 1st Team All-Pros on it. Burrow will have exactly none of that with him.

The 1st overall picks in those drafts performed better than their counterparts.
We should expect Burrow to do the same.

My prediction:
3500 yards
23 TDs
11 INTs

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-07-2020, 09:45 AM)ochocincos Wrote: The 1st overall picks in those drafts performed better than their counterparts.
We should expect Burrow to do the same.

My prediction:
3500 yards
23 TDs
11 INTs

I would argue Mayfield had a better offense around him, but I could still get behind your predictions as well.

I just wasn't ready to jump behind these 29-33 TD/6-8 INT predictions.

[Brownshoe]

It all depends on what's around him and what our playcalling looks like. If Green gets hurt in the preseason and the OL and playcalling is as bad as it's been the last few years I wouldn't expect much from Burrow. Maybe around 3200 yards, 19 TDs 13 INTs. If he has Green, good playcalling and OL then I wouldn't be surprised if he gets over 4k yards 28 TDs 8 INTs.

It all depends on what goes on around him... because that affects every QB.

[*bengalfan74*]

It's just hard to say at this point what OTA's, practice, preseason will be ? If he gets some time working with the team I'd say he'll have decent numbers. If he doesn't it will have an impact to a degree anyways.

I'll say 3,750 yards 25 TD's 10 int's

[*ochocincos*]

(04-07-2020, 10:16 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I would argue Mayfield had a better offense around him, but I could still get behind your predictions as well.

I just wasn't ready to jump behind these 29-33 TD/6-8 INT predictions.

I agree, and that's why I went with basically a middle between Baker and Kyler.

[MasonDT70]

I'd be happy with a 2:1 td to int ratio. I'd guess he'll probably be around that range. Like a 3500 25-13 range. Some of the predictions here are top 10 qb numbers and doing that straight out the gate would be very difficult. I'd be ecstatic to see that happen though.

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[fredtoast]

I think he will struggle


The Dolphins don't really have a lot of weapons on offense.

[*Nately120*]

If he has less than 10 INTs he's either absurdly good or playing a far more conservative game than we are probably hoping to see.  Burrow is going to be an ultra confident swaggalicious instant starter, so I can't see him playing it safe.  As a rookie I can foresee more than a few 4 TD 3 INTs wins. 

Plus if Ross is part of the game plan long passes and INTs are going to happen.


We keep mentioning Burrow and Luck in the same breath and Luck had 23 Tds and 18 INTs in year 1 as a day 1 starter. So what? Let er rip, kid.

[TecmoBengals]

(04-07-2020, 11:56 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I think he will struggle


The Dolphins don't really have a lot of weapons on offense.

So you think we're ending up with Herbert or possibly Tua?