Burrow's 1st Year Numbers

[*Nately120*]

(04-07-2020, 12:24 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: So you think we're ending up Herbert or possibly Tua?

Maybe we trade the pick for a buttload of picks and then tank for Trevor and draft him and win 6 SBs while dolphins fans wish they hadn't sold the farm to get Burrow. 

[Essex Johnson]

(04-07-2020, 05:35 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 3,200 yards
20 TD/13 INT

Awful high expectations in this thread for a rookie on a bad offense with a bad OC.


Top 15 pick QB rookie seasons '18-'19...
Daniel Jones: 3,027 yards/24 TD/12 INT  (13 games)
Josh Allen: 2,074 yards/10 TD/12 INT  (12 games)
Sam Darnold: 2,865 yards/17 TD/15 INT  (13 games)
Kyler Murray: 3,722 yards/20 TD/12 INT  (16 games)
Baker Mayfield: 3,725 yards/27 TD/14 INT  (14 games)
Dwayne Haskins: 1,365 yards/7 TD/7 INT  (9 games)
Josh Rosen: 2,278 yards/11 TD/14 INT  (14 games)

Note that the only one to have less than 12 INT is a guy who only played 9 games and still had 7 INT. Even the 13 INT (in 16 games) that I predicted would be a good pace for Burrow's rookie season.

There's just about zero chance that Burrow has only 6 INT this year. People predicting him to have a Dak Prescott-ish season need to remember that Dak Prescott did it with the 2nd ranked rushing offense in the league with a 1st Team All-Pro RB, a 1st Ballot HoF TE, and an OL with at least 3 1st Team All-Pros on it. Burrow will have exactly none of that with him.

Your numbers would be a disappointment to me since those are pretty much on par with Dalton as a rookie and a team in 2011 that also did not have much coming into the season on offense.  If Burrow is the real deal he should show better numbers than Dalton first year no doubt...

[McC]

(04-07-2020, 12:24 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: So you think we're ending up with Herbert or possibly Tua?

Don't feed the troll.

[*jason*]

(04-07-2020, 12:29 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Your numbers would be a disappointment to me since those are pretty much on par with Dalton as a rookie and a team in 2011 that also did not have much coming into the season on offense.  If Burrow is the real deal he should show better numbers than Dalton first year no doubt...

Andy Dalton came on board with a team that won twice as many games, had a great defense, a coaching staff that had actually won games, and he had a young stud WR with him... We all love Burrow (most of us anyway), but he'll be lucky to have similar or slightly better production. Rookie QBs don't usually set the world on fire... Even record breaking college QBs.

[*Nately120*]

(04-07-2020, 12:43 PM)jason Wrote: Andy Dalton came on board with a team that won twice as many games, had a great defense, a coaching staff that had actually won games, and he had a young stud WR with him... We all love Burrow (most of us anyway), but he'll be lucky to have similar or slightly better production. Rookie QBs don't usually set the world on fire... Even record breaking college QBs.

Like I said, look at Lucks rookie numbers as a 1st overall day one starter and see how we are hoping Burrow is significantly better.  It could happen but expectations are running high.

[Essex Johnson]

(04-07-2020, 12:43 PM)jason Wrote: Andy Dalton came on board with a team that won twice as many games, had a great defense, a coaching staff that had actually won games, and he had a young stud WR with him... We all love Burrow (most of us anyway), but he'll be lucky to have similar or slightly better production. Rookie QBs don't usually set the world on fire... Even record breaking college QBs.

Winning 4 games vs. 2 games has little difference  2-14 or 4-12 either are bad and twice as many is misleading.. undestand 1 more win by 2019 team and one less win by 2010 team and same record... we are not comparing 8-8 to 4-12 which would be a much clearer difference in records with twice as many wins...... AJ 1st year is not much difference than what we have in Boyd now ...we did not have a great defense.. we were 24th in points scored... middle of the road in yards alllowed.. plus the moves we have made on defense in FA .. we should be improved without even considering what happens in the draft..  so we should also improve from the draft to  better compare to 2010... 

In the end this team is on par right now to 2010 and if Burrow is a franchise QB .. we should expect better numbers than Dalton or it will be a disappointing first season 

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-07-2020, 12:23 PM)Nately120 Wrote: If he has less than 10 INTs he's either absurdly good or playing a far more conservative game than we are probably hoping to see.  Burrow is going to be an ultra confident swaggalicious instant starter, so I can't see him playing it safe.  As a rookie I can foresee more than a few 4 TD 3 INTs wins. 

Plus if Ross is part of the game plan long passes and INTs are going to happen.


We keep mentioning Burrow and Luck in the same breath and Luck had 23 Tds and 18 INTs in year 1 as a day 1 starter.  So what?  Let er rip, kid.

I'd say they will start him out leaning towards the conservative side. Hopefully we can get some early season production from the running game.

[Nati#1]

35 TD's
10 int's

4200 yards

[*jason*]

(04-07-2020, 12:58 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Winning 4 games vs. 2 games has little difference  2-14 or 4-12 either are bad .. AJ 1st year is not much difference than what we have in Boyd now ...we did not have a great defense.. we were 24th in points scored... middle of the road in yards alllowed.. plus the moves we have made on defense in FA .. we should be improved without even considering what happens in the draft..  so we should also improve from the draft to  better compare to 2010... 

In the end this team is on par right now to 2010 and if Burrow is a franchise QB .. we should expect better numbers than Dalton or it will be a disappointing first season 

4 is twice as many as 2... Tyler Boyd isn't as explosive as AJ as a rookie, and never will be. At one point in 2011 the defense was ranked number 1... And most importantly, we had a proven coaching staff back then. Maybe not so much Gruden yet, but still.

All these FA signings still have to show it. Free agents flop around the league all the time.

[*Nately120*]

(04-07-2020, 01:03 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'd say they will start him out leaning towards the conservative side. Hopefully we can get some early season production from the running game.

I expect a lot of dump offs to Mixon that build his confidence, but we don't want the next Derek Carr.  Burrow is supposed to be awesome and immune to jitters and blah blah blah so treat him like a big boy and let er rip!

No more playing it safe.  No more boring football.  Swagger that football down the field and force some Big Dick Joe on em!  Er, wait...

[Mike M (the other one)]

26-11 with 3800 yards.

He will have some great games and then some stinkers where he runs into a 3 int game a couple times.

The game is passer friendly anymore. Rookies are coming in and tossing for a ton of yards. 4k is not what it used to be. 5k is special now.

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2020, 12:24 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: So you think we're ending up with Herbert or possibly Tua?

Actually, no, I don't see anyway we trade the pick.

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-07-2020, 01:07 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I expect a lot of dump offs to Mixon that build his confidence, but we don't want the next Derek Carr.  Burrow is supposed to be awesome and immune to jitters and blah blah blah so treat him like a big boy and let er rip!

No more playing it safe.  No more boring football.  Swagger that football down the field and force some Big Dick Joe on em!  Er, wait...

Oh I agree I don't want Captain check down either. I was more meaning I don't want to see them hand Joe the ball day 1 and say ok BDJ go win us one, 55 pass plays right out of the gate.

[Gamma Ray Tan]

(04-07-2020, 11:56 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I think he will struggle


The Dolphins don't really have a lot of weapons on offense.

Oooooooooooohhhh, no you didn’t!

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Really hard to say at this moment. Don't know if Burrow will have much time to train with the team.

Gonna guess around 27 TD's and 5 INTS. A lot of yardage though throwing to Mixon, Gio and the TE's.

4,180 yards.

[*Nately120*]

(04-07-2020, 01:15 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Oh I agree I don't want Captain check down either. I was more meaning I don't want to see them hand Joe the ball day 1 and say ok BDJ go win us one, 55 pass plays right out of the gate.

That's reasonable, but we can't spend all this time bragging up how Burrow is the best most confident can't miss QB to come out of the draft since ninteen dickity two and then get all "go easy on him, don't hurt his confidence" like he's some sort of mortal man.  

The guy wears a hat that says he has a big dick, he's clearly immune to criticism. 

[McC]

(04-07-2020, 01:45 PM)Nately120 Wrote: That's reasonable, but we can't spend all this time bragging up how Burrow is the best most confident can't miss QB to come out of the draft since ninteen dickity two and then get all "go easy on him, don't hurt his confidence" like he's some sort of mortal man.  

The guy wears a hat that says he has a big dick, he's clearly immune to criticism. 

At least you're waiting until he actually is a Bengal before unleashing your snark gun on him.  

[J24]

With Jonah Williams and AJ Green added to the lineup plus having an elite RB to carry the offense. I think Burrow has a monster year.
30 TDs to 15 INT while throwing for 4,000 yards.

[*Nately120*]

(04-07-2020, 01:57 PM)McC Wrote: At least you're waiting until he actually is a Bengal before unleashing your snark gun on him.  

Hey, all I'm saying is that when you're on the Burrow wagon there is no sense in hoping for "confidence-protecting" boring gameplans.  Either the kid is really a "get him in there and let er rip" Andrew Luck type, or he isn't.  I want to see us use Burrow and I want to see him go for the other team's balls and not get into a pouty funk if things go awry.

Sure, I'm snarky, but I think Burrow is too good to be treated like Derek Carr's extra sensitive little brother.  If Burrow throws a single digit number of INTs his rookie year (remember, Luck had 18 INTs as a day-one starter in 2012) then he is either truly the next Otto Graham or ZT and company played chicken shit football and they should be canned.  Unless chickenshit football gets us to the playoffs, then I'll change my tune.  My mind is open as hell.

[McC]

(04-07-2020, 02:10 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Hey, all I'm saying is that when you're on the Burrow wagon there is no sense in hoping for "confidence-protecting" boring gameplans.  Either the kid is really a "get him in there and let er rip" Andrew Luck type, or he isn't.  I want to see us use Burrow and I want to see him go for the other team's balls and not get into a pouty funk if things go awry.

Sure, I'm snarky, but I think Burrow is too good to be treated like Derek Carr's extra sensitive little brother.  If Burrow throws a single digit number of INTs his rookie year (remember, Luck had 18 INTs as a day-one starter in 2012) then he is either truly the next Otto Graham or ZT and company played chicken shit football and they should be canned.  Unless chickenshit football gets us to the playoffs, then I'll change my tune.  My mind is open as hell.

Actually, I misspoke.  What I meant to say was your mighty, unrelenting snark gun which plays no favorites and shoots at everyone and everything.