Burrow's 1st Year Numbers

[*jason*]

(04-09-2020, 03:21 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: I definitely think 28 td's is a possibility if Burrow starts all 16. Hell, Mayfield only started 13 games.

2 games against our non-existent defense helped a lot in Baker's lil record.

[EatonFan]

(04-09-2020, 03:11 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: In trying to figure out what Burrow might do in his rookie season, I keep going back to the 2012 Colts, who were also coming off a 2-14 year and took a super-hyped rookie QB in Andrew Luck. That team was able to win 11 games and make the playoffs.

When you look at the rosters, the 2020 Bengals should definitely have a better running attack and more effective defense than Luck had as a rookie. The o-line, while still not great, should also be better than what Luck had. The receiving corps should be similar, or maybe even a little better, if AJ is healthy and play all season. 

Luck threw for over 4,300 yards, with 23 TD's and 18 int's as rookie. I think the Bengals will have a better roster than the 2012 Colts and I think that will result in Burrow having more TD's and less int's than Luck had. I'm going to say about 4,200 yards, with 28 td's and 14 int's.

28 TDs.  I would take that too.  Wouldn't be ecstatic about 14 INT, but it would depend on W/L record.

I think people have too high of expectations for Burrow.  Man, I hope he meets a lot of them.  That would be awesome.  It's why I started this thread to see where people's heads and hearts are on Burrow.

[McC]

(04-09-2020, 09:24 PM)EatonFan Wrote: 28 TDs.  I would take that too.  Wouldn't be ecstatic about 14 INT, but it would depend on W/L record.

I think people have too high of expectations for Burrow.  Man, I hope he meets a lot of them.  That would be awesome.  It's why I started this thread to see where people's heads and hearts are on Burrow.

28 might be a bit too high.  But the 2/1 TD/Int ratio would be great for a rookie.  And it usually wins games.  Rookies tend to throw picks. 

I agree with the other people who have said they think he might start a bit rough but get better as the season goes on.

[fredtoast]

Just a little perspective for everyones guesses

Last year the average per team was 3760 passing yards, 25 passing tds, and 13 ints. The league average passer rating was 90.4 which just a few years ago would have been top 10 for a starting QB.

Here are the rookie season records

Passer rating.....104.9 (Prescott)
Attempts............ 627 (Luck)
Completions....... 379 (Wentz)
Comp %............ 67.8 (Prescott)
Yards................ 4374 (Luck)
Pass tds............... 27 (Mayfield)

BTW one rookie passing record is held by a Bengal. Yards per attempt... 9.4, Greg Cook, 1969

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-10-2020, 12:17 AM)McC Wrote: 28 might be a bit too high.  But the 2/1 TD/Int ratio would be great for a rookie.  And it usually wins games.  Rookies tend to throw picks. 

I agree with the other people who have said they think he might start a bit rough but get better as thee season goes on.

I think this is pretty much a given especially without being able to even practice with the team as much as a rookie QB 
normally would. Just watching Burrow though, he never panics and just learns as the game goes on. Special.

[grampahol]

I think a lot will depend on how the defense does. If Burrow isn't forced to play from behind and sling the ball 50 times per game it may be trouble, but if, on the other hand the defense lives up to the offseason FA moves and can shut down opposing teams Borrow's prospects will drastically improve. I mean, if the Bengals get to have possession of the ball the majority of the time he's gonna win and win big, but if opposing teams can run the ball all day and leave Joe standing on the sidelines playing with his massive pecker then, well...It'll get ugly. and I really don't want to watch Joe playing peckerball all day..

[EatonFan]

(04-10-2020, 03:08 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I think this is pretty much a given especially without being able to even practice with the team as much as a rookie QB 
normally would. Just watching Burrow though, he never panics and just learns as the game goes on. Special.

If the Bengals are behind in most games, Burrow will throw it - A LOT.  So, it will really depend on whether our running game gets off to the abysmally slow start it did last season or builds on what they finished with.

[*Nately120*]

(05-13-2020, 11:17 PM)EatonFan Wrote: If the Bengals are behind in most games, Burrow will throw it - A LOT.  So, it will really depend on whether our running game gets off to the abysmally slow start it did last season or builds on what they finished with.

Like I've said, we love comparing Burrow to Luck so I'm willing to make the most of it if Burrow has to throw the ball all over the place and he racks up multi-TD and multi-INT games.  So be it.  Get out there and get throwing. We complained so much about Marvin playing chicken-shat fooball, so let's let 'er rip.

Luck threw 23 TDs and 18 INTs as a rookie, but he was clearly legit and they went 11-5 and made the playoffs after going 1-15. I wouldn't sneeze at that, but I know we want Burrow to throw 30 TDs and single-digit INTs.

[grampahol]

I'm predicting a real * (asterisk) season. 

[JSR18]

(05-13-2020, 11:29 PM)grampahol Wrote: I'm predicting a real * (asterisk) season. 

meaning...