Patriot's trade situation on 3 players: Cap hit too much?

[*SHRacerX*]

The title of this thread may be misleading.  However, I am looking at the Pats current situation and believe there is something that has to be in the works.  Here's why:

When looking at the attached breakdown of the Patriot's cap situation, three things jump out at you immediately:

Stephon Gilmore has a cap hit of $18,670,000 in 2020 and $19,670,000 in 2021[/b].  Those are insane numbers and represent almost 10% of the entire cap.  Sure he is a talented player, but that is a ton of money for a team with less than $1 million in cap space (and they have 12 draft picks right now as well that would need compensation).   Could the Patriots be interested in a player trade (I know they almost never happen) for WJIII that saves them $9 million in cap space in 2020? One problem is WJIII is in the final year of his rookie contract...I seriously doubt trading Gillmore for Dalton would make any sense, although Dalton could surely be re-structured.  You could say Gillmore could as well, but he is still going to command a lot on the open market.  Could the Pats be looking at trading Gillmore for a draft pick?

Joseph Thuney's cap hit under the franchise tag is $14,700,000.  Sure, they have until July 15th to get a new deal done with him, but how much cap space will that really free up?  Could the Pats be willing to trade Thuney, pending a contract renegotiation, for the Bengal's 2nd or 3rd round pick?  
[b]
Lastly, Dont'a Hightower's cap hit is $12,445.000.[/b]  It is the final year of his deal.  Could he be targeted as a potential trade for a draft pick to release some cap?   I sure wouldn't offer our 2nd or even our 3rd for him for two years, but he is a pretty solid LB.  

Those three players account for nearly 25% of the Patriot's cap number.  And they currently have no real viable option at QB.  If they start the season with Stidham at QB, I will be shocked.  It would seem logical that something would be in the works to free up cap space and acquire a starting-caliber QB.  Why hasn't it happened yet?  Because there are so many variables that could happen in the draft.  We are hearing now that Tua has been flunked by a few teams in his physicals.  He is being called "brittle".  I would be shocked if Miami passed on him, but if they did....or if Herbert or Love slid down to the Pats...That is the best scenario for them in terms of getting a QB for the long term.  However, they would STILL need to clear quite a bit of cap space to afford their rookie contracts.  Just because it hasn't happened yet, doesn't mean the Pats couldn't still have the potential to be involved in some very interesting business dealings with the Bengals.

Here is the tracker about the Pat's cap situation:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/cap/

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

(04-12-2020, 11:55 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: The title of this thread may be misleading.  However, I am looking at the Pats current situation and believe there is something that has to be in the works.  Here's why:

When looking at the attached breakdown of the Patriot's cap situation, three things jump out at you immediately:

Stephon Gilmore has a cap hit of $18,670,000 in 2020 and $19,670,000 in 2021[/b].  Those are insane numbers and represent almost 10% of the entire cap.  Sure he is a talented player, but that is a ton of money for a team with less than $1 million in cap space (and they have 12 draft picks right now as well that would need compensation).   Could the Patriots be interested in a player trade (I know they almost never happen) for WJIII that saves them $9 million in cap space in 2020? One problem is WJIII is in the final year of his rookie contract...I seriously doubt trading Gillmore for Dalton would make any sense, although Dalton could surely be re-structured.  You could say Gillmore could as well, but he is still going to command a lot on the open market.  Could the Pats be looking at trading Gillmore for a draft pick?

Joseph Thuney's cap hit under the franchise tag is $14,700,000.  Sure, they have until July 15th to get a new deal done with him, but how much cap space will that really free up?  Could the Pats be willing to trade Thuney, pending a contract renegotiation, for the Bengal's 2nd or 3rd round pick?  
[b]
Lastly, Dont'a Hightower's cap hit is $12,445.000.[/b]  It is the final year of his deal.  Could he be targeted as a potential trade for a draft pick to release some cap?   I sure wouldn't offer our 2nd or even our 3rd for him for two years, but he is a pretty solid LB.  

Those three players account for nearly 25% of the Patriot's cap number.  And they currently have no real viable option at QB.  If they start the season with Stidham at QB, I will be shocked.  It would seem logical that something would be in the works to free up cap space and acquire a starting-caliber QB.  Why hasn't it happened yet?  Because there are so many variables that could happen in the draft.  We are hearing now that Tua has been flunked by a few teams in his physicals.  He is being called "brittle".  I would be shocked if Miami passed on him, but if they did....or if Herbert or Love slid down to the Pats...That is the best scenario for them in terms of getting a QB for the long term.  However, they would STILL need to clear quite a bit of cap space to afford their rookie contracts.  Just because it hasn't happened yet, doesn't mean the Pats couldn't still have the potential to be involved in some very interesting business dealings with the Bengals.

Here is the tracker about the Pat's cap situation:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/cap/

I still wouldn't expect anything to happen until after the draft most likely. Or in the middle of it at the earliest. What if a guy like Love or Herbert falls to them, or they draft a Jake Fromm in the first few rounds and decide to just roll with that and possibly a Free Agent addition. If they could get a Newton or Winston on the cheap (if no one else signs them) I could see them going that route,

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-12-2020, 12:09 PM)CarolinaBengalFanGuy Wrote: I still wouldn't expect anything to happen until after the draft most likely. Or in the middle of it at the earliest. What if a guy like Love or Herbert falls to them, or they draft a Jake Fromm in the first few rounds and decide to just roll with that and possibly a Free Agent addition. If they could get a Newton or Winston on the cheap (if no one else signs them) I could see them going that route,

I see Fromm as about what they have in Stidham, who has had the benefit of a year under Tom in that system. 

A number of folks have said that they don't see Winston or Newton as fits for NE, and I agree with them.  Team fit is everything to that team.  Although everyone will talk playoff record and numerous other issues with Dalton, I think he fits them very well.  He just has to be willing to renegotiate his deal and the Pats need to clear some cap space. 

Dalton and WJIII to the Pats for Gilmore would put the Pats about $7 million over the cap but if Dalton were willing to negotiate a new deal...

Who knows.  But it will sure be interesting to see what the Pats will be doing on draft day.  I would be shocked if they went with Stidham, Newton, or Winston.

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

(04-12-2020, 12:27 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I see Fromm as about what they have in Stidham, who has had the benefit of a year under Tom in that system. 

A number of folks have said that they don't see Winston or Newton as fits for NE, and I agree with them.  Team fit is everything to that team.  Although everyone will talk playoff record and numerous other issues with Dalton, I think he fits them very well.  He just has to be willing to renegotiate his deal and the Pats need to clear some cap space. 

Dalton and WJIII to the Pats for Gilmore would put the Pats about $7 million over the cap but if Dalton were willing to negotiate a new deal...

Who knows.  But it will sure be interesting to see what the Pats will be doing on draft day.  I would be shocked if they went with Stidham, Newton, or Winston.

I don't think they want to go with a Newton/Winston, but they might see it as their only viable option versus trading for Dalton.

[Bengalstripes9]

The only potential trade I see is Thuney for Dalton, with Dalton restructuring his deal so they can sign their draft picks. But they would have to cut some players too.

I'm not sure the Pats will have the cap space to be honest. But we'll see. I could def. see Dalton moved on draft weekend (to some team). I could also see nobody biting, and us left with a decision to make.

[Bengalstripes9]

Getting a draft pick for Dalton would be ideal from a cap standpoint. But Thuney or a guard would be nice.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-12-2020, 12:39 PM)CarolinaBengalFanGuy Wrote: I don't think they want to go with a Newton/Winston, but they might see it as their only viable option versus trading for Dalton.

How much do you think those guys would want for their contracts?  At least $17 million per, I'm sure...I think Dalton could be had for less since he is probably more about the opportunity than the money at this point. 

If I were Dalton, I would play for a REALLY team-friendly deal ($10-12 million per with incentives) and try to raise my stock or simply win there.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-12-2020, 12:49 PM)Bengalstripes18 Wrote: Getting a draft pick for Dalton would be ideal from a cap standpoint. But Thuney or a guard would be nice.

I still can't believe the Colts went with Phillip Rivers for $25 million in one year.  I really thought the Colts would have been a great landing spot.  

[Bengalstripes9]

(04-12-2020, 01:10 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I still can't believe the Colts went with Phillip Rivers for $25 million in one year.  I really thought the Colts would have been a great landing spot.  

Yeah, it was just a tough free agency market for us to get value for Dalton--too many QBs on the market. The Colts probably didn't want to give up anything to get their QB, so they sign Rivers. Rivers is a short-term solution while they develop a young QB. Dalton is a good short-term to medium-term solution while a team finds their franchise QB though. He's a better than average to good starting QB, and a team-first leader. He's been a winner all through his career until the team fell apart the last couple years.

I think the viable teams just don't want to give up a pick until they see how the draft falls. I think the viable trade partners are wanting to see how the draft shakes out.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-12-2020, 01:09 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: How much do you think those guys would want for their contracts?  At least $17 million per, I'm sure...I think Dalton could be had for less since he is probably more about the opportunity than the money at this point. 

If I were Dalton, I would play for a REALLY team-friendly deal ($10-12 million per with incentives) and try to raise my stock or simply win there.  

Why do you think Dalton would but Newton or Winston wouldn't? Newton and Winston are the ones not signed with anyone right now, so they are in a worse situation than Dalton.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-12-2020, 01:10 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I still can't believe the Colts went with Phillip Rivers for $25 million in one year.  I really thought the Colts would have been a great landing spot.  

Prepare for all the screen passes to Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines. 

[Geno_Can_Dunk]

Dalton will be difficult to move *during* the draft because any deal will involve contract negotiations, etc. I think a more likely scenario is that we trade him *after* the draft for a 2021 conditional pick(s) based on performance, or for a player or some combination thereof.

Actually I think it's more likely we cut him, but there is still a chance for a trade.

[Bengalstripes9]

(04-15-2020, 12:06 AM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: Dalton will be difficult to move *during* the draft because any deal will involve contract negotiations, etc. I think a more likely scenario is that we trade him *after* the draft for a 2021 conditional pick(s) based on performance, or for a player or some combination thereof.

Actually I think it's more likely we cut him, but there is still a chance for a trade.

The last thing I remember Dalton saying was, "We'll see you draft weekend", or something along those lines. I think there's a good chance he get's moved during the draft as teams find out how players are falling. They can always work out contracts after the draft. 

I honestly think draft weekend is our best chance to move him and get a return. After the draft we'd be looking at trading for players or future picks. At that point we might have to cut him or hang on to him until the trade deadline. If "all options are on the table", hanging on to him until the trade deadline is an option. Maybe we re-work his deal after the draft and keep him on the trade block up until the deadline. Again, "all options are on the table". 

[Geno_Can_Dunk]

(04-15-2020, 10:09 AM)Bengalstripes18 Wrote: The last thing I remember Dalton saying was, "We'll see you draft weekend", or something along those lines. I think there's a good chance he get's moved during the draft as teams find out how players are falling. They can always work out contracts after the draft. 

I honestly think draft weekend is our best chance to move him and get a return. After the draft we'd be looking at trading for players or future picks. At that point we might have to cut him or hang on to him until the trade deadline. If "all options are on the table", hanging on to him until the trade deadline is an option. Maybe we re-work his deal after the draft and keep him on the trade block up until the deadline. Again, "all options are on the table". 

I would say that any trade depends on a deal being struck, so no, I don't believe you can just do it during the draft. Now, maybe we get a hypothetical deal in place before the draft, and it will hinge on let's say whether Jax can trade Ngakoue and/or they don't draft a QB themselves. But it won't be like "hey we got Dalton on the block call us if you want him." 

It isn't so much that Dalton needs to rework his contract - he can just do nothing and force his release because he knows the Bengals can't afford him. It's more of a negotiation between the Bengals and the trade partner for how much of his salary we'll be willing to eat to facilitate the trade - basically like buying picks. The more we eat, the better pick we might get. Lots of variables. 

Also, we can't wait until the trade deadline because we can't sign our rookies until his salary is off the books. The NFL would reject any deal that puts us over the cap. "All options are on the table" was always bull. It's the narrative we're putting out there because other teams are trying to wait us out knowing we'll have to release him. 

What we have to hope for is that New England doesn't get a QB in this draft, so that Jax knows they'll have to compete on the open market with them if Andy is released, and maybe one of those teams ponies something up to avoid the market competition. Even then we'll probably have to swallow some money if we want any return. 

Paul Dehner's and Jay Morrison's latest Hear that Podcast Growlin' is very interesting and confirms much of this, btw. 

[Luvnit2]

The thing is we have no idea what is going on behind the scenes. Bengals may already have deal in place pending on how draft shakes out for a team. I think Jags are also in play so if they miss out on their guy, they may be the team in play.

Like others have said, I see no way the Pats go into 2020 with Stidham or Hoyer as their QB. Yes Cam and Winston come into play, but no team has jumped in to sign them now. Why not, if they are your 1st choice?

It will be interesting to see how it shakes out, either way fun to be getting close to draft and hopefully a full NFL season.

[Geno_Can_Dunk]

(04-15-2020, 11:58 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: The thing is we have no idea what is going on behind the scenes. Bengals may already have deal in place pending on how draft shakes out for a team. I think Jags are also in play so if they miss out on their guy, they may be the team in play.

Like others have said, I see no way the Pats go into 2020 with Stidham or Hoyer as their QB. Yes Cam and Winston come into play, but no team has jumped in to sign them now. Why not, if they are your 1st choice?

It will be interesting to see how it shakes out, either way fun to be getting close to draft and hopefully a full NFL season.

All very good points. There are many variables we don't know, like whether Andy is willing to renegotiate at all knowing that if he doesn't he goes to unrestricted FA eventually. We might have already talked to Jax about several of their players, and they need to trade Ngakoue before they do anything. These trades also involve offset language regarding salaries which is something I don't understand at all. 

But the thing about NE is that they're in a really bad cap situation. Even if they trade Thuney and release Hightower, they still likely wouldn't have enough room to add Dalton unless we either pick up a big part of the tab (and how much are we willing to pay for a mid round pick?) or he agrees to renegotiate. I also think Bellichek knows they're going to get worse before they get better, so there's not much of a point in giving up assets for Dalton. Or maybe they draft somebody or trade for Brissett. 

[Bengalstripes9]

(04-15-2020, 12:29 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: All very good points. There are many variables we don't know, like whether Andy is willing to renegotiate at all knowing that if he doesn't he goes to unrestricted FA eventually. We might have already talked to Jax about several of their players, and they need to trade Ngakoue before they do anything. These trades also involve offset language regarding salaries which is something I don't understand at all. 

But the thing about NE is that they're in a really bad cap situation. Even if they trade Thuney and release Hightower, they still likely wouldn't have enough room to add Dalton unless we either pick up a big part of the tab (and how much are we willing to pay for a mid round pick?) or he agrees to renegotiate. I also think Bellichek knows they're going to get worse before they get better, so there's not much of a point in giving up assets for Dalton. Or maybe they draft somebody or trade for Brissett. 

There are a lot of variables. You can't just assume a deal would need to be in place prior to trading him, as some teams have enough cap space. Also, there could be a re-worked contract mostly worked out with another team, and they are just wanting to see how the draft goes before pulling the trigger. 

I maintain that the draft is the best time to trade him and get something for him. Teams gotta wait and see how the draft plays out before pulling the trigger on a trade. 

If he isn't moved during the draft, I agree that being released is a likely end result. We would have to re-work his deal to keep him, as well as cut or rework another player or two. This isn't likely, but technically a possibility. If nobody is willing to trade for him and there are no starting QB jobs open for him, he will have to face facts and take a pay cut--and hope early in the season a job opens up for him. I'm not saying this is the most likley scenario, I'm just saying it's technically possible (and "all options are on the table").

Again, I think the most likely result is he's traded during the draft and his contract is re-worked. If it doesn't happen, a release is certainly possible as his money would make it easier to re-sign Mixon and AJ and pay our draft picks.

 

[Geno_Can_Dunk]

(04-15-2020, 01:01 PM)Bengalstripes18 Wrote: There are a lot of variables. You can't just assume a deal would need to be in place prior to trading him, as some teams have enough cap space. Also, there could be a re-worked contract mostly worked out with another team, and they are just wanting to see how the draft goes before pulling the trigger. 
 

You latter sentence is pretty much exactly what I said. Meaning it starts before the draft but is consummated during or shortly after. 

But your second sentence is what I disagree with. The jags and pats are the only realistic trade partners. Nobody is just going to flip a pick to us without complex contractual negotiations involved, way to complex to start and finish during the draft. 

And I do think it's possible it happens after the draft, though I wouldn't count on getting much, if anything. 

[Bengalstripes9]

(04-15-2020, 03:01 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: You latter sentence is pretty much exactly what I said. Meaning it starts before the draft but is consummated during or shortly after. 

But your second sentence is what I disagree with. The jags and pats are the only realistic trade partners. Nobody is just going to flip a pick to us without complex contractual negotiations involved, way to complex to start and finish during the draft. 

And I do think it's possible it happens after the draft, though I wouldn't count on getting much, if anything. 

I could say something silly like "you're". I could rebut and we could go back and forth on this issue, but it's meaningless. I should have caught on to this method of discourse sooner. I'm not really into arguing with people. I like discussion. You are not wrong. I don't believe I am either. This conversation isn't worth partaking in. Have a good day, sir.   

[Bengalstripes9]

By the way, you have a cool name. Geno Can Dunk is a baller name.