Joe Mixon May Hold Out

[fredtoast]

(04-16-2020, 07:33 PM)JSR18 Wrote: Trade Mixon to get an extra 2nd or 3rd rounder and draft his replacement.

(04-16-2020, 08:02 PM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote:  A 2nd or 3rd rounder for him would be gravy. 

The chances of finding a RB as good as Mixon in the 2nd-3rd rounds are very slim.  There have been 53 RBs taken in the 2nd or 3rd rounds over the last ten years and only 4 have rushed for more yards per game than Mixon.  And Joe has been doing that behind a very sketchy O-line.

The draft is a much bigger crap shoot than most people realize.  They talk about the few RBs from later rounds that have done well, but ignore the dozens who have not.

If a team has a very good player they can not just automatically "draft his replacement", especially in later rounds.

[Hoofhearted]

(04-16-2020, 08:19 PM)Whatever Wrote: 4 of the 10 highest paid WR's in the NFL had their teams make the playoffs last year.  Hopkins, Watkins, Thielen, and Adams. 2 of the ones that didn't make the playoffs didn't play a down all year(Antonio Brown and AJ Green). 3 of the 10 highest paid RB's had their teams make the playoffs, but two of those(Lamar Miller and Jerick McKinnon) didn't play a single down for their respective clubs and Dion Lewis only had 227 total yards from scrimmage behind Henry.  It should also be noted that the Rams had both a Top 10 RB and WR and missed the playoffs.

Basically, teams with highly paid WR's performed better and those WR's did more to aid their teams success than their RB counterparts.

While a strong run game is important, paying top dollar on 2nd contracts for RB's isn't the way to accomplish it.  RB's drop off too quickly and are typically used up by the time they get that 2nd contract and get outperformed by their younger, cheaper counterparts.  You invest your money in your OL for 2nd contracts and draft replacements for RB's with expiring deals.

It's funny you mentioned this, because in my statistics class I did comparison of the rushing vs passing attempts the past 10 years. Teams pass the ball over 3,000 times more per year than they run the ball, so it makes sense that WR have a bigger impact in the game than RB

Tried uploading graph, but it was ugly. let me try to upload it to imgur.

Edit: at work, won't let me visit imgur. here's the sample data from 2009-2019

Rushing attempts

2009-13488
13321
13871
13688
13387
13925
13272
13755
13971
13920
2019-14088
Passing attempts

2009-18298
18295
18136
17879
17853
17788
17671
17488
17410
17269
2019-17033

[Circleville Guy]

The need for a strong and talented back is more important when you have a poor line. Joe has just entered his prime and he’s healthy. I think that a 3-4 year deal would be good but not if you have to pay him as a top 5 back. He’s probably gonna threaten to hold out at the end of his next deal too.

[Sled21]

(04-17-2020, 11:38 AM)Circleville Guy Wrote: The need for a strong and talented back is more important when you have a poor line. Joe has just entered his prime and he’s healthy. I think that a 3-4 year deal would be good but not if you have to pay him as a top 5 back. He’s probably gonna threaten to hold out at the end of his next deal too.

The need for a strong and talented back is also more important when you have a 1st year QB, regardless of who he is. 

[Sled21]

(04-17-2020, 11:09 AM)fredtoast Wrote: The chances of finding a RB as good as Mixon in the 2nd-3rd rounds are very slim.  

I've noticed a theme around here that many want to trade away our best players for unknown draft picks. Makes no sense. If we hit on that pick, they'll just want to trade that guy away too. We have to pay our best players and keep them.

[Hoofhearted]

(04-17-2020, 11:38 AM)Circleville Guy Wrote: The need for a strong and talented back is more important when you have a poor line. Joe has just entered his prime and he’s healthy. I think that a 3-4 year deal would be good but not if you have to pay him as a top 5 back. He’s probably gonna threaten to hold out at the end of his next deal too.

He will not hold out. If he doesn’t report to the first day of training camp, he will sacrifice an accrued year in the league, meaning he won’t be eligible for free agency in 2021.

[Hoofhearted]

(04-17-2020, 12:52 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I've noticed a theme around here that many want to trade away our best players for unknown draft picks. Makes no sense. If we hit on that pick, they'll just want to trade that guy away too. We have to pay our best players and keep them.

Maybe because since Mixon has been the starting RB, we've had a worse record each year. I want to pay the players that help us win more. So add better lineman, LBs, CBs, etc. I want our "best player" to have an impact to win more games than we lose.

[*Nately120*]

(04-17-2020, 12:52 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I've noticed a theme around here that many want to trade away our best players for unknown draft picks. Makes no sense. If we hit on that pick, they'll just want to trade that guy away too. We have to pay our best players and keep them.

It's a whole new ball game if Mixon decides to kick off the Burrow era by holding out, though. 

[McC]

(04-17-2020, 01:03 PM)Nately120 Wrote: It's a whole new ball game if Mixon decides to kick off the Burrow era by holding out, though. 

I'll show them.  I'll cut my own throat.  There.  Take that.

[Cicero]

Not sure we need that much talent at the position. I love big bruising rushing attacks. Ickey and James are still my all time favorite duo out of the backfield. For better or worse teams just don't put the same emphasis on it. I would love to see us go ground and pound to set up play action passing down the field but I suspect Taylor might be more in the young minds = fresh ideas school of thought.

[fredtoast]

(04-17-2020, 12:58 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: Maybe because since Mixon has been the starting RB, we've had a worse record each year. I want to pay the players that help us win more. So add better lineman, LBs, CBs, etc. I want our "best player" to have an impact to win more games than we lose.

There is zero logic to this argument.  You can't judge an individual's value based on the team's performance.  There are great players on bad team all around the NFL.  That does not mean they have no value or can't help a team win.

[fredtoast]

(04-17-2020, 01:17 PM)Cicero Wrote:  I would love to see us go ground and pound to set up play action passing down the field but I suspect Taylor might be more in the young minds = fresh ideas school of thought.

Actually that is exactly what the Rams did when Zac was there and they went to the Super Bowl.  .  .  .  and lost to a team that rushed for 154 yards.


The running game is still very important.  So top quality RBs are still very important.  There are two facts that contribute to the myth that RBs are n ot worth paying.  First of all they tend to wear out quickly, but we could give keep Mixon 4 more years and he would just turn 27 a month before the final season.  Second, great O-lines can make average RBs look good, but I don't trust us to build an elite line and even if we do a better RB still outperforms an average one behind a top line..  

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-17-2020, 03:59 AM)BURROWorBUST Wrote: It's not going to shock me if we trade him. You don't pull this kind of crap (threatening to hold out) the week before the draft. And not after the kind of free agency we had. And not when the team is in negotiations with a Pro-Bowl WR.

Joe Mixon still has some growing up to do.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire would look pretty good in stripes.

Uh, Shady, this is a media driven story. Mixon of course wants to be paid more than he is which is bottom of the barrel.

Don't judge Mixon on this, judge the shitty ass mainstream media that keeps pushing these stories.

Same shit as the Burrow doesn't want to be here stories. It is BS man.

Mixon will not hold out, he will be paid what he deserves and will tear it up, mark my words.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-17-2020, 12:52 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I've noticed a theme around here that many want to trade away our best players for unknown draft picks. Makes no sense. If we hit on that pick, they'll just want to trade that guy away too. We have to pay our best players and keep them.

I can understand trading Dalton, Gio or even Shawn to free up cap space, but not Mixon unless it is something crazy.

Spot on, hit on Mixon and AJ (hopefully he can stay healthy). Keep these guys no question in my eyes.

[*Nately120*]

(04-17-2020, 02:12 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Uh, Shady, this is a media driven story. Mixon of course wants to be paid more than he is which is bottom of the barrel.

Don't judge Mixon on this, judge the shitty ass mainstream media that keeps pushing these stories.

Same shit as the Burrow doesn't want to be here stories. It is BS man.

Mixon will not hold out, he will be paid what he deserves and will tear it up, mark my words.

Wasn't Paul Dehner the one to report it?  He's not a national mainstream guy. I havent really followed the specifics though.  

[SladeX]

It is. But I have yet to see an actual quote.

Not that Dehner doesn't know what he's talking about.

[fredtoast]

Just agent chatter. It is their job to say things like this.

Under the new CBA I don't see any way Mixon holds out. He may miss some offseason workouts, but he will be there for training camp.

[JSR18]

(04-17-2020, 11:09 AM)fredtoast Wrote: The chances of finding a RB as good as Mixon in the 2nd-3rd rounds are very slim.  There have been 53 RBs taken in the 2nd or 3rd rounds over the last ten years and only 4 have rushed for more yards per game than Mixon.  And Joe has been doing that behind a very sketchy O-line.

The draft is a much bigger crap shoot than most people realize.  They talk about the few RBs from later rounds that have done well, but ignore the dozens who have not.

If a team has a very good player they can not just automatically "draft his replacement", especially in later rounds.

Regardless of your number machine, There are equal RB's in this draft. Clyde Edwards-Helaire for starters... 

[fredtoast]

(04-17-2020, 02:46 PM)JSR18 Wrote: Regardless of your number machine, There are equal RB's in this draft. Clyde Edwards-Helaire for starters... 

You have no idea if Edwards-Helaire will amount to anything in the NFL.  Every year there are star college RBs that are drafted high and flop.  


I believe Clyde has a second round grade, and I showed before only about 10% of RBs taken in the second round have produced as well as Mixon.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(04-17-2020, 02:36 PM)SladeX Wrote: It is. But I have yet to see an actual quote.

Not that Dehner doesn't know what he's talking about.

He's a sensitive fairy though, so he definitely writes with a bit of emotion and too much opinion, sometimes.

(He blocked me when I responded to a tweet of his, saying, "man, this is a depressing place," with, "then why not look for a new job?" I wasn't snarky, I wasn't a dick, I genuinely posed that question; block. Fairy.)