SErebel11 mock draft

[SErebel11]

Pick #1 The Bengals select Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

#33 This pick to me is the key to the Bengals draft having the opportunity to be good or great.

I know there is a whole thread on this but I threw my thoughts in here.

I see 3 teams that could be obvious trade up spots depending on who is available at 33.

Denver needs a starter at WR and CB and have been in the OL market as well. They have some draft capitol with 3 3rd round picks. So if they draft a WR and a CB or OT falls out of the first round that they love then that could work or if the big WR's are off the board at 15 and they go with Fulton then maybe Mims or Reagor is sitting there at 33.

In this scenario Bengals trade #33 for #46 and #77 or #83 depending on what the Bengals can extract.

NY Jets needs a starting tackle and WR. At pick #11 they can grab either one then decide to move up with one of their 2 3rd round picks to #33,

In this scenario Bengals trade #33 for #48 and #68 or #79 depending on what the Bengals can extract.

Tampa Bay needs a  tackle and a safety. If they can add a tackle at pick #14 without trading up and Delpit or McKinney.

In this scenario Bengals trade #33 for #45 and #76


The Ezra Cleveland factor. If he doesn't go in the back end of the first round, there will be a few teams that need a tackle that will come calling in my opinion.


With all that said, in this mock draft the Jets grab Jeudy or Lamb and then decide to slide back up for Ezra Cleveland at pick 33 and give up #48 and #68 in a slight over pay.

Pick #48 The Bengals select Michael Pittman, Jr , WR USC
Pittman adds immediate depth to the wide receiver group and gives the Bengals a physical playmaker on the outside. With the uncertainty of Green and Ross, it makes sense to tap into this stacked receiver class.

Here is where the draft gets really interesting.

Pick #65 The Bengals select Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU
Cincinnati drafts Mixon's replacement and a guy that Burrow has chemistry with already. This move allows Cincinnati to move on from Mixon and avoid paying a RB top dollar.

Pick #68 The Bengals select Willie Gay Jr, LB, Mississippi State
Elite athlete that has coverage skills at the LB position. He definitely has some baggage but apparently he has had some really rave reviews from his combine interviews. I think he worth the 68th pick here on a LB needy team.


The Bengals announce a trade after this pick. Tampa Bay trades TE OJ Howard and pick  #76 to Cincinnati for RB Joe Mixon.

Howard has really been a disappointment and I don't believe he will right the ship all of a sudden to be amazing but he would be a depth piece at TE on the cheap that the Bengals need. He is reportedly on the trading block and Tampa is all in this season with Brady. I think they would do this deal as it would help both teams out.

Pick #76 The Bengals select Robert Hunt, G, Louisiana
I think this guy can be a stud. Former OT kicking inside. I admittedly struggled with this IOL selection. I feel like Jonah Jackson might be a better fit here at LG as he is one of the better zone scheme guards and pass protectors in this class but I like Hunt's upside more. I definitely feel like this is a good pick spot to address IOL.

Pick #107 The Bengals select Logan Wilson, LB, Wyoming
So there is a bunch of guys that I like in this spot that could be available.
LB Logan Wilson
sCB Amik Robertson
WR Lynn Bowden JR
OT Jack Driscoll
I decided to take Logan Wilson because I think he is an instinctive tackling machine that can be groomed behind Bynes as a good Mike. I think he may be able to develop into a decent coverage guy as well. He will immediately help on special teams.


Pick #147 The Bengals select Darnay Holmes, CB, UCLA
I feel like this is solid value here. Cincinnati has met with quite a few cornerbacks and I feel like they draft one in this round.

Pick #187 The Bengals select McTelvin Agim, DT, Arkansas
Explosive gap penetrator who can rush the passer. He could get some reps in place on Atkins to help limit some of his snaps while developing into a more complete DT.

Pick #217 The Bengals select Tanner Muse, S/LB, Clemson
Could be a special teams guy that is groomed into the role of Williams. I like him as maybe a coverage linebacker possible role.


Summary
Pick #1 Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
Pick #48 Michael Pittman, Jr , WR USC
Pick #65 Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU
Pick #68 Willie Gay Jr, LB, Mississippi State
Pick #76 Robert Hunt, G, Louisiana
Pick #107 Logan Wilson, LB, Wyoming
Pick #147 Darnay Holmes, CB, UCLA
Pick #187 McTelvin Agim, DT, Arkansas
Pick # 217 Tanner Muse, S, Clemson

Bengals add TE OJ Howard

[J24]

You're trading Joe Mixon? Not saying it's a bad trade but man you're mentions are about to blow up. I speak from past experiences.

[SErebel11]

(04-16-2020, 01:52 PM)J24 Wrote: You're trading Joe Mixon? Not saying it's a bad trade but man you're mentions are about to blow up. I speak from past experiences.

I think it is a reasonable outcome, get a young high upside guard and spend that 9-10M per somewhere else while drafting his replacement and getting a depth TE

[Okeana]

I like it. Not all the picks, but the trades make sense to me especially the Joe Mixon trade, but I don't know how much value he will really have on the trade market.

[Whatever]

I like it overall. The Mixon trade won't be popular, but it makes sense if you're drafting Helaire and not extending him. Hunt is an interesting prospect. I'm not a fan of Gay for all his issues, but he definitely has talent.

[SErebel11]

(04-16-2020, 02:09 PM)Okeana Wrote: I like it.  Not all the picks, but the trades make sense to me especially the Joe Mixon trade, but I don't know how much value he will really have on the trade market.

I felt like Mixon was worth a 2nd round pick to TB given their RB situation and he is no stress to the salary cap next season and the fact that with Brady they are going for it. I valued Howard as a 5th round pick. So a third round net was my outcome.

[*ochocincos*]

Not sure why you consider OJ Howard a "major" disappointment.
While Howard hasn't been a 700+ yard TE, he's been consistently above 400 yards every year and has played double-digit games every year.
He was 15th in TE yards last year and was in an offense that doesn't prioritize the TE and also sharing TE receptions with Cameron Brate (who he outperformed).
I'd definitely be game for bringing him to Cincinnati, but only if it meant he'd be one of the top 3 receiving options and an intent to give him the 5th year option and/or sign him long-term.

With that said, the weapons around Burrow would be absolutely insane with the acquisition of Howard, Pittman, and Edwards-Helaire along with Boyd, Green, Ross, and Tate.
I'd still have my concerns about the OL and LBs though. I think Willie Gay is a reach at 68. Personally, if still wanting Willie, I'd wait until the following 1-2 picks for him and just take a different LB if he's not there. With the 68th pick, I'd go with a better OL than Hunt.

[McC]

So Tampa Bay wants to bring in Mixon and his holdout so they can be the ones to have to try to convince him he isn't worth what he thinks?

[SErebel11]

(04-16-2020, 02:21 PM)McC Wrote: So Tampa Bay wants to bring in Mixon and his holdout so they can be the ones to have to try to convince him he isn't worth what he thinks?

Obviously there would be some conversations there in that regards before hand. Assuming this would actually take place, obviously something has settled the storm.

[SErebel11]

(04-16-2020, 02:20 PM) pid=\856144' Wrote:Not sure where "major" came from. I figure if you are not gonna get a 5th year option from the team that drafted you in the first round then they would consider your performance some level of disappointing. I think he is worth bringing back in a Mixon trade so I am not characterizing him as horrible. 

Gay, JR is polarizing to me but he has 1st round talent/athleticism. I know I would hate it if he went to the Ravens or Steelers.

Instead of Hunt, who you got that might be at pick 76? Just curious

[*ochocincos*]

Quote:Not sure where "major" came from. I figure if you are not gonna get a 5th year option from the team that drafted you in the first round then they would consider your performance some level of disappointing. I think he is worth bringing back in a Mixon trade so I am not characterizing him as horrible. 


Gay, JR is polarizing to me but he has 1st round talent/athleticism. I know I would hate it if he went to the Ravens or Steelers.

Instead of Hunt, who you got that might be at pick 76? Just curious

Sorry, you had said "Howard has really been a disappointment" which, to me, translated to a "major" disappointment.

What I'd personally look to do (if they were there) would be Lucas Niang at 68, Akeem Davis-Gaither at 76.
Maybe I don't know enough about Hunt and Gay, Jr. but that seems more risky than something like Niang and ADG.

[SErebel11]

(04-16-2020, 02:52 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Sorry, you had said "Howard has really been a disappointment" which, to me, translated to a "major" disappointment.

What I'd personally look to do (if they were there) would be Lucas Niang at 68, Akeem Davis-Gaither at 76.
Maybe I don't know enough about Hunt and Gay, Jr. but that seems more risky than something like Niang and ADG.

Niang had hip surgery and is expected to fall to day 3 and with the virus limitations he may well be a day 3 fall. 
I like ADG but I don't know if the Bengals would draft a smallish linebacker. He is a good prospect tho.

[sandwedge]

I don't think I can trade Joe Mixon for a RB that makes Rudi Johnson seem like a speed merchant.

[SunsetBengal]

If I'm trading away Joe Mixon (who'm I hated on draft night), I'm at least coming out of the draft with another day 1, feature back who's ready to carry the load. Michael Dobbins.

[pulses]

(04-16-2020, 04:51 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: If I'm trading away Joe Mixon (who'm I hated on draft night), I'm at least coming out of the draft with another day 1, feature back who's ready to carry the load.  Michael Dobbins.

Just draft Johnathon Taylor in round 2 and be done with it if you're going to trade Mixon.

[SunsetBengal]

(04-16-2020, 07:24 PM)pulses Wrote: Just draft Johnathon Taylor in round 2 and be done with it if you're going to trade Mixon.

Too many other needs to use the #33 on RB.  We'd need to either pick up another 2nd, or extra 3rd, and pick up whichever of Taylor, Dobbins, or Cam Akers.  (I know that I threw Dobbins out there earlier, but any of them with a "to the house" gear, and can catch will do) 

[SErebel11]

(04-16-2020, 07:41 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Too many other needs to use the #33 on RB.  We'd need to either pick up another 2nd, or extra 3rd, and pick up whichever of Taylor, Dobbins, or Cam Akers.  (I know that I threw Dobbins out there earlier, but any of them with a "to the house" gear, and can catch will do) 

That's what I tried to do with this draft. I like Mixon and wanted the Bengals to draft him but the trade I consummated you add a pick that turns into a good guard prospect which could help the running game by helping the OL, a TE, and you save 8-10M per on a running back that could be used elsewhere in free agency. That was my thought. Taylor has some serious fumbling issues and got ran ragged in Wisconsin. A lot of Dobbins big runs were schemed and blocked well. He doesn't really break a lot of tackles. I like Akers too. 

[SunsetBengal]

(04-17-2020, 01:01 PM)SErebel11 Wrote: That's what I tried to do with this draft. I like Mixon and wanted the Bengals to draft him but the trade I consummated you add a pick that turns into a good guard prospect which could help the running game by helping the OL, a TE, and you save 8-10M per on a running back that could be used elsewhere in free agency. That was my thought. Taylor has some serious fumbling issues and got ran ragged in Wisconsin. A lot of Dobbins big runs were schemed and blocked well. He doesn't really break a lot of tackles. I like Akers too. 

I agree that UW does tend to "use up" their RBs to the utmost.  The thing with Akers is he played behind some of the worst OLs in a generation at Fla St.  pretty much everything he gained, he got on pure personal talent and effort.  Had he played on one of the "top notch" teams?  I think that he would have been in the Heisman conversation for the past 2 years.