BIG WEEKEND FOR BENGALS

[kevin]

Covid19 or no Covid19, this is a bigger weekend for Bengals than any other team because Bengals are The Worst Team.

New Dey was Bad Dey in 2019. This team has been getting worse each year since end of 2015 season.

To turn it around, Bengals need a GREAT DRAFT. That means getting it right with the Top Pick in 1 and Top Pick in 2, and Top Pick in 3, and Top Pick in 4, and TOP pick in 5, and Top Pick in 6. Because 2 is like a 1, 3 is like a 2, 4 is like a 3, 5 is like a 4, 6 is like a 5. So The Bengals hitting home runs on all these picks is greatly needed by the worst team in NFL, if they want to rise out of the slime and become a winning team again.

So starting Thursday we have some Sports on TV. We know Burrow Thursday at the start. I want to see who Bengals take start of every other round, because Round 1 picks fall to us start of 2. Round 2 picks fall to us start of 3, and 4 is a 3, 5 is a 4, 6 is a 5.....Good Players should fall to us the Top of Each Round. Who they are, nobody ever knows before Drafts. So worth watching to see what huge surprises are sitting there, and are Bengals smart enough to grab them, instead of dumb taking lower pick players.

If the Bengals do it right, this should be their best draft ever, and worst team in NFL needs their best draft ever. May Top Talent fall into their laps the Top of Every Round to Really Bring us New Dey.

Paul Brown use to say draft Best Available Athlete. As players fall out of Round 1, Bengals there to steal them, and they can do that Top of Every Round. BEST AVAILABLE ATHLETE. Bengals could use help at most positions since only 2 wins, so B.A.A. Surprises at Top of Rounds to be Grabbed.

That Top of 2 Pick, just consider him an extra Round 1......Top of 3, consider him a Round 2.

[impactplaya]

This team cannot afford to draft 3 Drew Samples this year
They need guys that can impact this team right away

[kevin]

With no sports on TV since early March, WE have some Sports on TV now. The worst record is no good if we don't nail every round.

We have some SPORTS on TV this Week.

[Hammerstripes]

Agree. Rounds 2 and 4 are going to be the big ones.

I think you could make a strong case that we could see a trade back at 33. If we could somehow add another 3rd through that process it would be a big win.

[JWW1971]

I would rather keep pick 33 and trade back in the 3rd round and maybe even the 4th

[kevin]

(04-20-2020, 02:37 PM)JWW1971 Wrote: I would rather keep pick 33 and trade back in the 3rd round and maybe even the 4th

Right, you do NOT trade Top Pick in Round 2 because it's like an Extra First Round Pick.  and Bengals of 2 wins could use 2 First Round Picks. 

but I also want that Top Pick in 3.  because we get the 2nd Round Pick Player there.

So that makes 2 First Rounds and a 2nd Round in Talent.

Then Pick 4, we get a 3rd Round Talent to start.  

I'm against trading out of these cat bird seats.  We will NOT get the same Talent trading back.  We can STEAL the best fallen player the Top of Every Round.  That means Play Makers and Earth Shakers.  

We are going to be very Happy and Surprised by who is sitting there the Top of Each Round.  Bengals load up on Talent FAST.  

Yes, you could trade back for more lesser players, but we don't need lesser players. We got some top Free Agents.  NOW get the Best Of The Best Top of Each Round. 

[Hammerstripes]

(04-20-2020, 02:59 PM)kevin Wrote: Right, you do NOT trade Top Pick in Round 2 because it's like an Extra First Round Pick.  and Bengals of 2 wins could use 2 First Round Picks. 

but I also want that Top Pick in 3.  because we get the 2nd Round Pick Player there.

So that makes 2 First Rounds and a 2nd Round in Talent.

Then Pick 4, we get a 3rd Round Talent to start.  

I'm against trading out of these cat bird seats.  We will NOT get the same Talent trading back.  We can STEAL the best fallen player the Top of Every Round.  That means Play Makers and Earth Shakers.  

We are going to be very Happy and Surprised by who is sitting there the Top of Each Round.  Bengals load up on Talent FAST.  

Yes, you could trade back for more lesser players, but we don't need lesser players. We got some top Free Agents.  NOW get the Best Of The Best Top of Each Round. 

Well, you're making the major assumption that there are 32 guys that are rated as first round picks, when, in reality, there are more likely 15-20 that carry a first round grade on a majority of team's draft boards.  The true value almost aways lies in picks 20-60 as you get similar players in that range.  I would easily take a trading down in round 2 and picking up an extra 3rd rounder to take a player in the strong area of the draft.

With your scenario, you aren't getting a first round talent at 33, you're getting a 2nd round guy at 33 and probably and 2nd-3rd rounder at 65.

[Hammerstripes]

Did a little research on the #33 pick. You have to really dig deep to find someone that has had a stud career.

https://www.footballdb.com/draft/draft.html?lg=NFL&yr=2014&rnd=2

The only stallion that came out of the draft at 33 in the last 6 years is Landon Collins. The rest are very pedestrian. If you can slide back and get another 3rd, you definitely make that trade.

[bengals1969]

(04-20-2020, 02:10 PM)kevin Wrote: Covid19 or no Covid19, this is a bigger weekend for Bengals than any other team because Bengals are The Worst Team.  

New Dey was Bad Dey in 2019.  This team has been getting worse each year since end of 2015 season.

To turn it around, Bengals need a GREAT DRAFT.  That means getting it right with the Top Pick in 1 and Top Pick in 2, and Top Pick in 3, and Top Pick in 4, and TOP pick in 5, and Top Pick in 6.   Because 2 is like a 1,  3 is like a 2, 4 is like a 3, 5 is like a 4, 6 is like a 5.  So The Bengals hitting home runs on all these picks is greatly needed by the worst team in NFL,  if they want to rise out of the slime and become  a winning team again.

So starting Thursday we have some Sports on TV.  We know Burrow Thursday at the start.  I want to see who Bengals take start of every other round, because Round 1 picks fall to us start of 2.  Round 2 picks fall to us start of 3, and 4 is a 3, 5 is a 4, 6 is a 5.....Good Players should fall to us the Top of Each Round.   Who they are, nobody ever knows before Drafts.  So worth watching to see what huge surprises are sitting there, and are Bengals smart enough to grab them, instead of dumb taking lower pick players.  

If the Bengals do it right, this should be their best draft ever,  and worst team in NFL needs their best draft ever.  May Top Talent fall into their laps the Top of Every Round to Really Bring us New Dey.

Paul Brown use to say draft Best Available Athlete.  As players fall out of Round 1, Bengals there to steal them, and they can do that Top of Every Round.  BEST AVAILABLE ATHLETE.   Bengals could use help at most positions since only 2 wins, so B.A.A.  Surprises at Top of Rounds to be Grabbed.

That Top of 2 Pick, just consider him an extra Round 1......Top of 3, consider him a Round 2.



Bengals have never had a draft like the one coming this week.    They have fixed the defense except LB via FA done prior to the draft.  On offense there is only 2 spots that must have a new starter, QB and LG.  Otherwise any pick will likely sit behind proven guys for the 2020 season.  Ideal situation for the Bengals.  QB is obviously addressed.

At #33 if a top LB is  there take him, if not, attempt to trade down for more picks.  In round 3 and 4 address the LG  spot only if the guy can start immediately, there will be plenty of those guys at 65 and 97.  Ideally the Bengals can get a starting LB, LG and a sit for a season WR in rounds 2-4.  Alternatively another ideal draft is getting a top 5 LB then go strictly best player available starting in round 3.

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-20-2020, 02:37 PM)JWW1971 Wrote: I would rather keep pick 33 and trade back in the 3rd round and maybe even the 4th

Yep,

But It all depends on who falls ?

[Hammerstripes]

(04-20-2020, 03:38 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yep,

But It all depends on who falls ?

If it's anything like the last few years, I'm definitely moving down

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(04-20-2020, 03:11 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Did a little research on the #33 pick.  You have to really dig deep to find someone that has had a stud career.

https://www.footballdb.com/draft/draft.html?lg=NFL&yr=2014&rnd=2

The only stallion that came out of the draft at 33 in the last 6 years is Landon Collins.  The rest are very pedestrian.  If you can slide back and get another 3rd, you definitely make that trade.

Dug into it a bit deeper; last 20 drafts and I'll give them a grade, based on AV, years/games played and total numbers (back to 2000):

2000: Darren Howard, DE, KS St., Saints: 3-time double digit sacks, lots of TFL (high single digits to double digits in every year), 50 AV in 9 seasons of completely healthy play (save for one). B player.
2001: Quincy Morgan, WR, KS. St., Browns: 1-time 900 yards receiving, not much else. 22 AV in 6 seasons of completely healthy play. C- player.
2002: Jabar Gaffney, WR, Florida, Texans: Only the one year of 900 yards receiving, but a super clutch, hard-nosed player that played for a long time and on some good teams. 52 AV in 11 seasons of completely healthy play. B- player.
2003: Eric Steinbach. LG, Iowa, Bengals: We know all about him; great guard, played LT in a pinch and played well wherever he went. 57 AV in 8 completely healthy seasons (only missed 3 games in 8 years). B+ player
2004: Karlos Dansby, LB, Auburn, Cardinals: Fantastic LB with 7 years of 100+ tackles (2 of them, 100+ solo), the only player in NFL history with 20 FF, 20 sacks and 20 picks. Even when losing steam with us, still put up great numbers, even if he sucked in coverage. 113 AV in 14 healthy years (only 1, less than 14 games played and it was 12). B+ player.
2005: David Bass, G/C, Michigan, 49ers: Solid G who started majority of games in every season he played (save for 1) and won a SB as the starting C for the Giants. 41 approximate value in 9 healthy seasons (only 1 was less than 11 games). B- player.
2006: Demeco Ryans, MLB, Alabama, Texans: FINALLY a pro-bowler lol. 6 of 10 years in the league, over 100 tackles, DROY, still only 35 years old lol. 70 AV in 10 healthy seasons (only 2 less than 14 games played). A- player.
2007: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan, Cardinals: Solid DT, more of a lane-plugger than penetrator. Good rotation piece, started at DT for the Patriots last 2 SBs. 51 AV in 11 healthy seasons (only 2 less than 11 games played). B- player.
2008: Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson, Dolphins: First true bust, that did virtually nothing in his time in the league. Did last 6 seasons (6 AV), but was only truly healthy for 2 of them. D- player.
2009: Louis Delmas, FS, Western Michigan, Lions: Solid player that had decent years; another George Iloka basically, but a bit better in terms of raw numbers. 29 AV in 7 healthy years (only 1 less than 11). C+ player.
2010: Rodger Saffold, OT/OG, Indiana, Rams: Really good guard (terrible tackle lol), got a massive contract last year from the Titans and looks to continue his career for a while. 61 AV in 10 healthy years (only 3 less than 12). B player.
2011: Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia, Patriots: Second bust, did almost literally nothing, in 3 years. 1 AV in 3 injury-plagued years. F player.
2012: Brian Quick, WR, App St., Rams: Quincy Morgan type, with worse per-year numbers, but was very good on STs. 12 AV in 7 relatively healthy years. D+ player.
2013: Johnathan Cyprien, SS, FIU, Jaguars: Really good, tackling-machine SS. Healthy every year until 2017, then has missed a bunch of games (all of 2018) since. 26 AV in 6 mediocre-health years. C+ player.
2014: Xavier Su'a-Filo, OG, UCLA, Texans: Solid backup OG who has played well when asked to start; we'll see how he does this year. 24 AV in 6 healthy seasons (only 1 less than 11 and he didn't play in all games last season, due to the team he was on, despite being healthy). C+ player.
2015: Landon Collins, S, Alabama, Giants: Stud, all-pro S who has been impressive and a half. Despite the teams he's been on, outside shot at big awards. 36 AV in really healthy years (only 1 less than 15 and it was 12). A- player.
2016: Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, OKSU, Browns: Solid DE, probably would've had better numbers had he not played in Cleveland, next to Danny Shelton's horrid self for 2 seasons. 21 AV in 4 relatively healthy seasons (1 16, 1 14, 2 10). C+ player.
2017: Kevin King, CB, Wsh., Packers: Super-hurt for his first two year, was healthy last year and was great. 10 AV in 3 injured seasons. C- player.
2018: Austin Corbett, C, Nevada, Browns: Not a great player and was shipped away for a 5th round pick. 4 AV in 2 seasons-worth of 11 GP. D player.
2019: Byron Murphy, CB, Wsh., Cardinals: Decent rookie year. 5 AV in a fully-healthy 1 year. C+ pick.

(The grades are just my opinion and aren't set in stone or anything. Also, the last 3 guys really should get a few more seasons under their belts, before a clear call can be made)

So taking an overall look at this list, you have 2 bonafide busts, 2 potential busts, 2 studs, 5 really good players and the rest are middling to solid. So 7 guys that are starters on each team, 4 that are horrid and the rest, somewhere in between.

For our positions of need this year:

The 3 WRs have all ranged from role players to good.
The 5 Olineman have all been solid or better players, save for Corbett.
The 2 LBs have been fantastic players.

Just going on the last 20 years of #33 overall picks, I'd say an OL or LB would be the surest thing.

[AlphaBengal]

33 is probably the best pick in the draft to have from a value perspective. A handful of guys slide out of the first round, and you have a good amount of time before that pick to work the phones for teams trying to get said player that's slipped out of the first round. It's really a win-win.

[Cicero]

Need Andy to work the war room phones between rounds 1 and 2.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(04-20-2020, 08:07 PM)AlphaBengal Wrote: 33 is probably the best pick in the draft to have from a value perspective. A handful of guys slide out of the first round, and you have a good amount of time before that pick to work the phones for teams trying to get said player that's slipped out of the first round. It's really a win-win.

As the data shows above, it's just as much of a crapshoot as the entire 1st round, so no, it's only good value on paper and not in reality.

But, also what the data shows above, certain positions picked at that spot, tend to do better than others.

Again, LB or OL, you sprint to call that pick in.

Otherwise, BPA or trade down.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

It depends on who is there for sure at 33. Definitely for trading back if Josh Jones or Ruiz are not there.

The top LB's all have questions. I like Baun the best for us if he falls.

Mims is a good WR for us IMO. Think he fits what we need as an outside Receiver. Also like Aiyuk or Shenault if his injury
problems are behind him and he can learn to block better. Blocking as a WR is a bigger deal than some make out.

Aiyuk reminds me of TY Hilton.

Chase Claypool is my riser.

[bengals67]

(04-20-2020, 02:19 PM)impactplaya Wrote: This team cannot afford to draft 3 Drew Samples this year
They need guys that can impact this team right away

Thank you.

[JSR18]

(04-20-2020, 08:07 PM)AlphaBengal Wrote: 33 is probably the best pick in the draft to have from a value perspective. A handful of guys slide out of the first round, and you have a good amount of time before that pick to work the phones for teams trying to get said player that's slipped out of the first round. It's really a win-win.

I firmly suspect that the phones will start ringing immediately after pick #32 and will continue to ring until Friday night when the Bengals are on the clock for #33...

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-20-2020, 10:44 PM)JSR18 Wrote: I firmly suspect that the phones will start ringing immediately after pick #32 and will continue to ring until Friday night when the Bengals are on the clock for #33...

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

This is where you start listening to offers if someone crazy didn't fall.

Add some picks in the mid rounds. Think Fromm and Eason are starting to Rise.

Still cannot believe Love is getting so much love, he throws a lot of INTS and has regressed.

[JSR18]

(04-20-2020, 10:49 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: This is where you start listening to offers if someone crazy didn't fall.

Add some picks in the mid rounds. Think Fromm and Eason are starting to Rise.

Still cannot believe Love is getting so much love, he throws a lot of INTS and has regressed.

I'm not a big moving down for picks guy. If somebody huge fell out of the 1st round, this is where you make hay. TBS, this is also the spot where teams who didn't get their QB they need in the 1st round will make some stupid offers. This is where Dalton will be traded (if he's going to be traded)...